Bracketology Thread 2018-19

[SaveOD238]

Bracketmatrix has us as a 3, the NET would have us as a 5.

So how do we improve our NET score?  Do we just need a couple blowouts to boost efficiency numbers?  Would beating Nova help a lot?

[JakeBarnes]

So how do we improve our NET score?  Do we just need a couple blowouts to boost efficiency numbers?  Would beating Nova help a lot?

Road wins by double digits, most likely.

[Mr. Nielsen]

https://twitter.com/CBBonFOX/status/1090049217232392192

[brewcity77]

So how do we improve our NET score?  Do we just need a couple blowouts to boost efficiency numbers?  Would beating Nova help a lot?

As far as in our control, beating teams by more than we're expected to. I think following the Pomeroy spreads and looking to see if we exceed them is our best hope. NET isn't the same as kenpom, but it's probably a good guide.

At this point, though, the needle likely moves less as more data is already baked in. Beating Butler tomorrow by 20? That would move the needle, but a narrow win or loss probably wouldn't do much.

The other big factor will be the conference tournament. Winning that would be huge because you'll get more credit for neutral court than you would at home and currently the 18 teams ahead of us come from 7 conferences. Winning neutral court games on Friday & Saturday while teams that get eliminated early are idle will help.

[HowardsWorld]

As far as in our control, beating teams by more than we're expected to. I think following the Pomeroy spreads and looking to see if we exceed them is our best hope. NET isn't the same as kenpom, but it's probably a good guide.

At this point, though, the needle likely moves less as more data is already baked in. Beating Butler tomorrow by 20? That would move the needle, but a narrow win or loss probably wouldn't do much.

The other big factor will be the conference tournament. Winning that would be huge because you'll get more credit for neutral court than you would at home and currently the 18 teams ahead of us come from 7 conferences. Winning neutral court games on Friday & Saturday while teams that get eliminated early are idle will help.

Beating Nova is really the only way to improve out Net Ranking without counting on other teams ahead losing. The job by Wisconsin by beating Michigan was almost 15. Beating teams ranking 50-100 doesn't do much. Thats why I have said numerous times that without teams beating Marquette or Nova the big east doesnt get much bids. Losing to the bottom of the big east are bad losses while wins dont move the needle enough.

[brewcity77]

Beating Nova is really the only way to improve out Net Ranking without counting on other teams ahead losing. The job by Wisconsin by beating Michigan was almost 15. Beating teams ranking 50-100 doesn't do much. Thats why I have said numerous times that without teams beating Marquette or Nova the big east doesnt get much bids. Losing to the bottom of the big east are bad losses while wins dont move the needle enough.

That's not how the efficiency based portion of the metric works, that's not how any efficiency based metric works, and at this point that's all the team can control.

[HowardsWorld]

That's not how the efficiency based portion of the metric works, that's not how any efficiency based metric works, and at this point that's all the team can control.

Do you think we would be ranked higher if we ran up the score in non conference?

[brewcity77]

Do you think we would be ranked higher if we ran up the score in non conference?

Absolutely. That and minimizing the deficits of our losses.

[MuMark]

Absolutely. That and minimizing the deficits of our losses.

Virginia Tech is a great example......they ran up big scores against a terrible non conference schedule.....they did beat a decent Washington team by 12 and Purdue by 6.....but other then that their best win is Syracuse......lost to Penn State and got blown out by Virginia and NC

10th in both NET and Pomeroy

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Do you think we would be ranked higher if we ran up the score in non conference?

In the polls? No. In the metrics? Yes. This is how metrics like KenPom and NET work. One of the biggest drags on our rankings this season is the 7 point win over UTEP. We won the game, and it was never truly in doubt, but metrics punish teams for close games against bad opponents.

If we start blowing out other Big East teams, you will see our metrics rise. Keep in mind that the closer you get to the top, the harder it is to rise in the rankings thanks to good old standard deviation. If we keep winning games by single digits, we will likely stay in the same neighborhood.

[pbiflyer]

PBI flyer? Did you used to live in the Palm Beaches?

Will likely be where our Warriors go this year. Hopefully it is JAX.

I did and back there now. Hopefully we are in Jax.

[Herman Cain]

Was unaware of the connection of NET and bacteria.

Correction noted and amended.

[GB Warrior]

Absolutely. That and minimizing the deficits of our losses. not losing ever again

Edited for the Scoop gameday thread audience

[brewcity77]

Virginia Tech is a great example......they ran up big scores against a terrible non conference schedule.....they did beat a decent Washington team by 12 and Purdue by 6.....but other then that their best win is Syracuse......lost to Penn State and got blown out by Virginia and NC

10th in both NET and Pomeroy

+1

Wisconsin is always the classic example, but Va Tech and Texas Tech are other good examples. Put up some 30, 40, & 50 point wins against bad opponents and it overinflates your metric ranking. I'm a little surprised we haven't seen Pomeroy institute a regressive model for the really big margins. Is there really a statistically significant difference between a 15 & 20 point win, 20 & 30, 30 & 50?

[IrwinFletcher]

If you beat a team by 25, lets say by a score of 95-70 or 75-50, that means you were either very efficient on offense (first score) or on defense (second score).  And it is that efficiency on one side of the ball or the other that helps your KenPom/NET ranking, not necessarily that you won by 25.

So the UTEP game didn't help us not necessarily because we only won by 7.  We only won by 7 because we didn't play well on either side of the ball, which affected our rating.

I posted an article here a few weeks ago that Buffalo keeps in 1-2 regulars at the end of blowout wins in order to keep their efficiency numbers high.  So if you are destroying an opponent and put in walk ons and freshman for the last 2-3 minutes, you usually play very poorly and can affect your efficiencies a bit.  Thought it was interesting foresight by their coach.

[JakeBarnes]

If you beat a team by 25, lets say by a score of 95-70 or 75-50, that means you were either very efficient on offense (first score) or on defense (second score).  And it is that efficiency on one side of the ball or the other that helps your KenPom/NET ranking, not necessarily that you won by 25.

So the UTEP game didn't help us not necessarily because we only won by 7.  We only won by 7 because we didn't play well on either side of the ball, which affected our rating.

I posted an article here a few weeks ago that Buffalo keeps in 1-2 regulars at the end of blowout wins in order to keep their efficiency numbers high.  So if you are destroying an opponent and put in walk ons and freshman for the last 2-3 minutes, you usually play very poorly and can affect your efficiencies a bit.  Thought it was interesting foresight by their coach.

I feel the highlighted shows that the model has some serious flaws--it doesn't have context.

[GoldenEagle323]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[Mr. Nielsen]

FOX
https://twitter.com/CBBonFOX/status/1091442326671568896

CBS
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

[MomofMUltiples]

Howie Schwab got no love for the BEast.

[RushmoreAcademy]

Howie Schwab got no love for the BEast.

Nothing to do with his ranking of us, but he's awful. He constantly talks about how people are going to be mad at him over his comments.  So hard to watch him.

[JakeBarnes]

FOX
https://twitter.com/CBBonFOX/status/1091442326671568896

CBS
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

Would love that CBS bracket.

[Oldgym]

Would love that CBS bracket.

Definitely.

And I'm sure UW-Madison fans would say the same.

[JWags85]

Nothing to do with his ranking of us, but he's awful. He constantly talks about how people are going to be mad at him over his comments.  So hard to watch him.

I watched Stump the Schwab all the time. And it was because watching that fat idiot lose every couple of episodes was priceless. Looked like he would cry or flip over the table.  Can't believe they have him back in front of the camera.

[PGsHeroes32]

Would love that CBS bracket.

Yes please

[brewcity77]

Two thoughts...

FOX
https://twitter.com/CBBonFOX/status/1091442326671568896

Murray State as First Four Out is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever heard. They have absolutely no shot at the bubble. None. Auto-bid or bust.

CBS
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

UNC on the 4-line, especially behind Louisville, seems crazy. For Marquette, however, I love the draw. Elite 8 seems likely and Final Four very plausible.

Worth noting, Palm seems to have no idea how locating teams works. He's just putting teams in the field in order. You don't put the best 1, best 2, best 3, and best 4 all in the same region. That's not how this works.