MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season

[Lennys Tap]

It was also reported that there was 100 million in that Nats deal deferred and he would have been paid until age 60... Bonilla would have been impressed with that, but it would certainly negatively impact the NPV of that offer.

The old 300 million dollar deal - $1 a year for 300 million years!

[MU82]

It was also reported that there was 100 million in that Nats deal deferred and he would have been paid until age 60... Bonilla would have been impressed with that, but it would certainly negatively impact the NPV of that offer.

Thanks buck. I didn't see that.

I did just hear that the Dodgers offered him $180M for 4 years -- which would have been the richest average contract in the history of North American pro sports.

One would think a 26-year-old athlete who is supremely confident in himself would bet on himself still being great at age 30, when he would have been able to become a free agent again and break the bank again.

If that report is true, interesting the Harper would have not chosen it.

[Cheeks]

Thanks buck. I didn't see that.

I did just hear that the Dodgers offered him $180M for 4 years -- which would have been the richest average contract in the history of North American pro sports.

One would think a 26-year-old athlete who is supremely confident in himself would bet on himself still being great at age 30, when he would have been able to become a free agent again and break the bank again.

If that report is true, interesting the Harper would have not chosen it.

Trout deal will be insane.  I have been so lucky to watch him when he was still a pup in Spring  Training and each year home games since with the big club.  Dodgers are going to pay him ridiculous amount, Phillies, Yankees, etc.

I will enjoy the last year and a half before we trade him to get something.  As much as I would like to keep him, I don't believe it is sustainable to do these types of deals and preparing to move on.  Baseball has to many variables to put that much money into one player. 

[Heisenberg]

I'm guessing Harper will not do the same ...

@darrenrovell  Mar 1

My favorite Ricky Henderson story used to be the one where the A's had to come to him to ask him where the $1 million bonus they gave to him was.

He told them he framed it.

(The A's then proceeded to tell him how cashing a check works.)

[Heisenberg]

Same paper, same author, 469 days apart

[MUBurrow]

Trout deal will be insane.  I have been so lucky to watch him when he was still a pup in Spring  Training and each year home games since with the big club.  Dodgers are going to pay him ridiculous amount, Phillies, Yankees, etc.

I will enjoy the last year and a half before we trade him to get something.  As much as I would like to keep him, I don't believe it is sustainable to do these types of deals and preparing to move on.  Baseball has to many variables to put that much money into one player.

I'm inclined to agree - though someone will pay him and I can't begrudge them that either. Reports today that the Angels are likely to offer a 350/10 extension - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/angels-have-considered-offering-10-years-350mm-to-mike-trout.html.  I don't think that even starts as enough and would like to see LAA approach Trout the same way the Nats approached Harper. Don't even get into negotiations, just go to him and say "400/10 is all we can do - we know you're a generational talent and would love to keep you, but that's just where we're at."

Trout seems like a pretty bread and butter guy, so maybe he just wants to stay and will work toward making that happen. If his free agency process follows the typical model, though, I don't see any way he re-ups with LAA.  Those Pujols and Upton deals are just killers.  Assuming they'd have to give Trout $40M per year, and only have a middling farm system, there isn't an avenue for that team to get any better - and winning seems to be really important to Trout at this point in his career. If they resign Trout, they'd look a lot like the Lions paying Stafford $27M/year.

[Heisenberg]

Ok, you are now the MLB Commissioner.  What do you do with this case?

Let's be honest, husbands and wives bicker with each other.  Sometimes that bickering gets a little out of control and one or both sides truly regrets it.  It's life, it happens.  Thankfully when that happens, we don't have it splashed all over TMZ.

They were pissed at each other.  She took his phone.  She would not give it back.  He forcibly took it.  Seems like both were wrong but he was "more wrong" by getting physical.  The video is only five seconds so we have no context on what transpired right before he decided to physically take his phone.

Charges will not be filed as she is not pressing charges.  So the question is, should his baseball career end over this?  If nothing, how do explain to Addison Russell his 50 game suspension?  Both were physical with a woman.

(video if the incident in this link)
Video shows Giants CEO Larry Baer pulling wife to ground in San Francisco plaza
https://www.sfchronicle.com/giants/article/Video-shows-Giants-CEO-Larry-Baer-dragging-wife-13656221.php

Giants CEO Larry Baer pulled his wife out of a chair and caused her to fall to the ground in a San Francisco plaza on Friday morning, an incident captured on video by a witness and under investigation by city police.

The video shows Baer stepping over his wife, Pam, as she sits in a chair in the plaza in Hayes Valley before noon. She screams, "Oh, my God, no, help!" as Baer appears to try to grab a phone out of her right hand.

She hangs on to the phone, her chair tips, and she falls to her back. Larry Baer and his wife were having coffee when they engaged in an extended argument, and both were wearing suits.

The 5-second video was provided by a worker in the area who said he witnessed the incident, but spoke on the condition of anonymity. The footage — along with a second video lasting 10 seconds — does not make clear what led to the incident. The witness sold publishing rights to the video to TMZ.

[MUBurrow]

Re Baer - a mandatory 6 month break away from all team business without pay, followed by mandatory counseling. Tougher to punish because he's part of the ownership group and executive team and you can't really measure a punishment in a number of games. I don't think you force him to divest, but his punishment has to be equal to or greater than players that are first time domestic abuse offenders.

[WarriorDad]

Same paper, same author, 469 days apart

My go to newspaper, but hasn't been a good last 72 hours for them.

[#UnleashSean]

My go to newspaper, but hasn't been a good last 72 hours for them.

That lawsuit doe

[Cheeks]

Same paper, same author, 469 days apart

So bad and not at all surprising.

[The Sultan]

If you read the article, it makes some sense at least the way he calculates.  First, Harper had a poor year by his standards last year.  So his future projection has decreased - and actually calls his 10 WAR season more of an outlier.  Second, the growth in cost per marginal win has actually slowed down in recently years, probably due to teams getting more value from less expensive players.   That's why the phrase "in this market" is used.

And of course one could say his calculations are phony and that reality could be different than projections, but he is consistent. 

[Cheeks]

I'm inclined to agree - though someone will pay him and I can't begrudge them that either. Reports today that the Angels are likely to offer a 350/10 extension - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/angels-have-considered-offering-10-years-350mm-to-mike-trout.html.  I don't think that even starts as enough and would like to see LAA approach Trout the same way the Nats approached Harper. Don't even get into negotiations, just go to him and say "400/10 is all we can do - we know you're a generational talent and would love to keep you, but that's just where we're at."

Trout seems like a pretty bread and butter guy, so maybe he just wants to stay and will work toward making that happen. If his free agency process follows the typical model, though, I don't see any way he re-ups with LAA.  Those Pujols and Upton deals are just killers.  Assuming they'd have to give Trout $40M per year, and only have a middling farm system, there isn't an avenue for that team to get any better - and winning seems to be really important to Trout at this point in his career. If they resign Trout, they'd look a lot like the Lions paying Stafford $27M/year.

Pujols comes off in 2021.  Trout is a quiet guy, drives the MLB nuts that he isn't flamboyant and Mr. Marketing.  He does like So. Cal and the weather, and Orange County is certainly a nice place to play.   The one thing people don't talk about is the potential new ballpark for the Angels down on the water in Long Beach.  The current deal at Angels stadium only goes through 2020.  Moreno is going to want an anchor for the new stadium, so this gets interesting.  The Halos signed a $3Billion TV deal and they average 3 million fans, so the revenue part isn't currently a situation except that Moreno doesn't want to go into the luxury tax.  Obviously they have decisions to make in the next 12 months.  Either way, it's been blast watching him grow up in the org and being able to see him play as much as we do.

[WarriorDad]

That lawsuit doe

The reaction to it, dumping on a Friday afternoon with an editor's note essentially admitting their reporting was shoddy.  From a credibility position, they should have done better and not bury it on a Friday afternoon.  News media does not care for corporations and politicians doing that, they should not be doing it either.   

[Heisenberg]

Re Baer - a mandatory 6 month break away from all team business without pay, followed by mandatory counseling. Tougher to punish because he's part of the ownership group and executive team and you can't really measure a punishment in a number of games. I don't think you force him to divest, but his punishment has to be equal to or greater than players that are first time domestic abuse offenders.

Will he be gone six months?
Giants CEO Larry Baer takes leave after altercation with wife
https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/giants-ceo-larry-baer-takes-leave-altercation-wife/

San Francisco Giants President and CEO Larry Baer was granted a leave of absence from the team on Monday following the release of a video showing him in a physical altercation with his wife.

The Giants board of directors released a statement that said Baer had made a request that was accepted to take personal time away from the team in response to the video released by TMZ last week showing the altercation in a San Francisco park between Baer and his wife, Pam.

"Mr. Baer has acknowledged that his behaviour was unacceptable, apologized to the organization and is committed to taking steps to make sure that this never happens again," the statement said.

[buckchuckler]

Nm

[MU82]

Just received this in my inbox:

The Seaver family announced today that Hall of Fame pitcher Tom Seaver has recently been diagnosed with dementia. Tom will continue to work in his beloved vineyard at his California home, but has chosen to completely retire from public life. The family is deeply appreciative of those who have supported Tom throughout his career, on and off the field, and who do so now by honoring his request for privacy. We join Tom in sending warmest regards to everyone. 

I was not a Mets fan growing up, but I thought Tom Seaver was the best pitcher in baseball. Sad news.

[Cheeks]

One of the reasons Harper May have balked at Dodgers and Trout may go elsewhere...the economics of the tax hit.  Article today in LA Times, worth about one year's salary in lost income to sign with a California team.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-skelton-income-tax-20190307-story.html

[withoutbias]

One of the reasons Harper May have balked at Dodgers and Trout may go elsewhere...the economics of the tax hit.  Article today in LA Times, worth about one year's salary in lost income to sign with a California team.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-skelton-income-tax-20190307-story.html

How will they survive on only $315M?

[MU82]

One of the reasons Harper May have balked at Dodgers and Trout may go elsewhere...the economics of the tax hit.  Article today in LA Times, worth about one year's salary in lost income to sign with a California team.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-skelton-income-tax-20190307-story.html

Explains why California teams never get any talented players.

I mean, who wants to play for the Golden State Warriors or Lakers or Rams or Dodgers?

[Cheeks]

Just received this in my inbox:

The Seaver family announced today that Hall of Fame pitcher Tom Seaver has recently been diagnosed with dementia. Tom will continue to work in his beloved vineyard at his California home, but has chosen to completely retire from public life. The family is deeply appreciative of those who have supported Tom throughout his career, on and off the field, and who do so now by honoring his request for privacy. We join Tom in sending warmest regards to everyone. 

I was not a Mets fan growing up, but I thought Tom Seaver was the best pitcher in baseball. Sad news.

Sad, indeed.  Not just for Mr. Seaver, but his family.  The families endure this type of disease as much, if not more, than the person plagued by it.  Especially at the end.  Very difficult and can only hope his journey and that of his family is as comforting as possible.

[Cheeks]

How will they survive on only $315M?

Not the point at all. The point was that teams in California and some other states may find it more difficult to sign players because money isn't the same everywhere.  Conversely, some other states may have an advantage.  I thought the article was factual and pointed that out fairly clearly.  Ultimately it will be up to each person to decide what is enough.  It also isn't about surviving, but what you plan on doing with the money.  When you get into the numbers these guys are talking about, it becomes legacy driving, how are they going to use their money to drive their legacy.  If they can get an additional $30M simply by doing nothing different than signing in another state, that is a lot of good that can be done with that kind of dough.

[MU82]

Not the point at all. The point was that teams in California and some other states may find it more difficult to sign players because money isn't the same everywhere.  Conversely, some other states may have an advantage.  I thought the article was factual and pointed that out fairly clearly.  Ultimately it will be up to each person to decide what is enough.  It also isn't about surviving, but what you plan on doing with the money.  When you get into the numbers these guys are talking about, it becomes legacy driving, how are they going to use their money to drive their legacy.  If they can get an additional $30M simply by doing nothing different than signing in another state, that is a lot of good that can be done with that kind of dough.

Somebody needs to tell Anthony Davis to stop pining for the Lakers. And KD and Steph to stop re-signing with the Warriors. And Machado to un-sign with the juggernaut that is the Padres.

Seriously, I do know what you are saying. But when you're talkin' about Monopoly money, these guys mostly want to go where they think they'll be happy. They love the weather, the aura of Cali and, in at least some of the cases, a chance (they think) to win big.

[Cheeks]

Explains why California teams never get any talented players.

I mean, who wants to play for the Golden State Warriors or Lakers or Rams or Dodgers?

Some of those teams are through the draft where they have no choice.  The Lakers are horrific, but LBJ is here to start his movie business. 

No one is saying they can't do well or sign players, but it may deter SOME from signing in free agency.  Personal choice, it is just one of many factors....no more no less, but the article was fair in how it articulated it.  No need to take out of context.

[MU82]

Some of those teams are through the draft where they have no choice.  The Lakers are horrific, but LBJ is here to start his movie business. 

No one is saying they can't do well or sign players, but it may deter SOME from signing in free agency.  Personal choice, it is just one of many factors....no more no less, but the article was fair in how it articulated it.  No need to take out of context.

Didn't take it out of context at all, and yes it might deter some players. Few probably, but some possibly.

Can't understand why you just don't use your personal choice and boogie the heck out of there. Life's too short to live someplace you hate with every burning ember of your being. Your family would adjust.