2018-19 minutes per game

[Silkk the Shaka]

The Sacar redshirt was a one-off. He was young for his class by a year, much like Markus. He needed a year to get himself on track with his class physically and work on his jumper.

Villanova's redshirts were injury-related (DD, Booth), academics-related (Spellman), or freshman year weight related (Bridges). Cain would have fell into the Bridges category last year, but he already played a nice role and I suspect will put on weight this off-season while refining other parts of his game. He's ready for prime time, don't see him sitting.

[1SE]

I think it's very likely that by January 1, 2019 one of Sacar/Bailey/Cain will have transferred. I'd say the smart money is on Sacar, but if that is the case, hopefully that becomes apparent before the year starts so he doesn't burn any eligibility.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I think it's very likely that by January 1, 2019 one of Sacar/Bailey/Cain will have transferred. I'd say the smart money is on Sacar, but if that is the case, hopefully that becomes apparent before the year starts so he doesn't burn any eligibility.

I'd say Sacar is the least likely. He already used a redshirt year, and he'll probably graduate in May '19, leaving open the immediately eligible grad transfer option at the end of the season. A mid-season transfer for him would make little to no sense, and he seems to have a good head on his shoulders with a good support system that would strongly advise against.

[1SE]

I'd say Sacar is the least likely. He already used a redshirt year, and he'll probably graduate in May '19, leaving open the immediately eligible grad transfer option at the end of the season. A mid-season transfer for him would make little to no sense, and he seems to have a good head on his shoulders with a good support system that would strongly advise against.

I agree midseason transfer for Sacar is unlikely - if he goes my guess it is before he sees the court. Put this way, JC, M2N and Sam are going to each see 30 minutes at the 1, 2 and 3. Sam played 4 last year out of necessity, other than a few situational instances, I don't see him playing any 4 this year when we have two great 4s (Joey and Ed) and two serviceable 5s (Theo and Heldt) - plus a little wild card in Ike. That leaves 30 guard minutes for Bailey, Cain, Elliot and Sacar - can't see any of them being happy with <10 mpg but it will have to happen with one of them. As the "freshman" Bailey seems most likely to be o-k with that, but I would imagine the guy wants to see the court after two years off.

[1SE]

I agree midseason transfer for Sacar is unlikely - if he goes my guess it is before he sees the court. Put this way, JC, M2N and Sam are going to each see 30 minutes at the 1, 2 and 3. Sam played 4 last year out of necessity, other than a few situational instances, I don't see him playing any 4 this year when we have two great 4s (Joey and Ed) and two serviceable 5s (Theo and Heldt) - plus a little wild card in Ike. That leaves 30 guard minutes for Bailey, Cain, Elliot and Sacar - can't see any of them being happy with <10 mpg but it will have to happen with one of them. As the "freshman" Bailey seems most likely to be o-k with that, but I would imagine the guy wants to see the court after two years off.

*One caveat, if JC isn't the savior, then maybe that frees enough minutes to keep everyone happy.

[mug644]

*One caveat, if JC isn't the savior, then maybe that frees enough minutes to keep everyone happy.

Wait a sec...if JC isn't the savior, that undermines a whole lot of thinking a MU. And the Big East in general, never mind the entire Church.

[brewcity77]

Sacar transferring makes no sense. If he leaves before the season, he has to sit out and play one year. If he leaves midseason, he loses his second semester junior year and first semester senior year, whereas if he stated he could grad transfer and be eligible to play sooner than if he leaves early.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Sacar transferring makes no sense. If he leaves before the season, he has to sit out and play one year. If he leaves midseason, he loses his second semester junior year and first semester senior year, whereas if he stated he could grad transfer and be eligible to play sooner than if he leaves early.

Precisely

[WarriorDad]

I think by conference play, in a normal game, we'll go 10/11 deep, with the bottom 2/3 getting ~5 mpg. In blowouts, with foul trouble, or if nothing seem to be working, minutes will be spread out more (duh). In big games and down the stretch near tourney time, the rotation will tighten to 8/9 players. Here's how I see those scenarios playing out.

Base/normal case

1: JC 28, Elliott 12
2: M2N 28, Elliott 6, Cain 6
3: Hauser the Elder 20, Cain 12, Anim 4, BB 4
4: Hauser the Younger 24, Hauser the Elder 8, Morrow 8
5: Morrow 20, Theo 10, Heldt 8 (may start for tip), Hauser the Younger 2

That's 28 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 26 for Joey, 18 for GE/Cain, 10 for Theo, 8 for Heldt, 8 combined for Anim/Bailey

With minutes spread due to foul trouble/blowout/nothing working

1: JC 24, Elliott 12, M2N 4
2: M2N 20, Elliott 6, Cain 6, Anim 4, Bailey 4
3: Hauser the Elder 20, Cain 12, Anim 4, Bailey 4
4: Hauser the Younger 22, Hauser the Elder 4, Morrow 8, Theo 3, Eke 3
5: Morrow 16, Theo 11, Heldt 8, Eke 5

That's 24 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 22 for Joey, 18 for GE/Cain, 14 for Theo, 8 for Heldt, 16 combined for Anim/Bailey, Eke 8

Tightened rotation in big games/March

1: JC 32, Elliott 8
2: M2N 32, Elliott 4, Cain 4
3: Hauser the Elder 26, , Cain 10, Hauser the Younger 4
4: Hauser the Younger 26, Hauser the Elder 6, Morrow 8
5: Morrow 24, Theo 10, Heldt 6

That's 32 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 30 for Joey, 14 for Cain, 12 for GE, 10 for Theo, 6 for Heldt

Lineup on floor in crunch time

JC, M2N, Sam, Joey, Ed (best 5 players)

Lineup to defend a large lead down the stretch

JC, Greg, Anim, Morrow, Theo (height, athleticism, strength, 5 best defenders)

If Anim only receives 4 minutes, he will be leaving and we must be very good not to need his services.  I'm guessing Anim is more 10 to 15 guy due to his experience alone.

[MU82]

As long as Markus, Sam, JC, Morrow and Joey are happy and healthy, and McEwen actually arrives (and stays) on campus, everything else is gravy.

The rest of 'em are role players, some quite minor role players.

I know it's the offseason, and we have to debate something, but if Sacar or Eke or Elliott or even Cain transfer and/or pout, it is not going to ruin the 2018-19 and 2019-20 Warriors seasons.

That's kind of cold, but IMHO it's true.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

As long as Markus, Sam, JC, Morrow and Joey are happy and healthy, and McEwen actually arrives (and stays) on campus, everything else is gravy.

The rest of 'em are role players, some quite minor role players.

I know it's the offseason, and we have to debate something, but if Sacar or Eke or Elliott or even Cain transfer and/or pout, it is not going to ruin the 2018-19 and 2019-20 Warriors seasons.

That's kind of cold, but IMHO it's true.

Truth.

And honestly, it is a super refreshing problem to have.  Too many players worthy of minutes is fantastic.

[brewcity77]

If Anim only receives 4 minutes, he will be leaving and we must be very good not to need his services.  I'm guessing Anim is more 10 to 15 guy due to his experience alone.

But again, if Sacar is averaging 4 minutes and leaves, he loses eligibility. I see no circumstance Sacar leaves unless he deliberately wants to hurt the team. I know you aren't suggesting this, but I don't see any way that (1) Sacar goes from 27 minutes to less than 10 or (2) that he transfers at any point before he has a degree in hand.

[Almost2MU]

Impossible to do a projection of a full roster with this much talent and keep everyone happy. The reality is someone in the role player group will be unhappy and likely transfer. That's just college basketball nowadays. Sacar grad transfer seems to be the easiest to predict/accept but Ill put my money on him holding off Greg/Jamal and one of them being on the way out after the upcoming season. Fortunately Wojo has already prepared for this by bringing in Koby and we'll be able to take it in stride.

[1SE]

But again, if Sacar is averaging 4 minutes and leaves, he loses eligibility. I see no circumstance Sacar leaves unless he deliberately wants to hurt the team. I know you aren't suggesting this, but I don't see any way that (1) Sacar goes from 27 minutes to less than 10 or (2) that he transfers at any point before he has a degree in hand.

Sacar played those minutes this year because Sam was playing the "4" and Cain was our only other "3". Unless both Morrow and Joey are complete duds, it's hard to see Sam playing anything other than situational minutes at the 4, which means he'll eat 30+ at the 3 leaving Sacar to battle with Cain, Bailey (and Elliot) for the scraps at the 2 and 3.

I just don't see how one of them doesn't move on - it will really depend on if/how Cain develops over the summer and how ready-to-go Bailey is. Even if Bailey is willing to accept a more limited role this year, the log-jam will persist for two more years - if he doesn't displace Junior Sacar will he really be able to displace Senior Sacar? Tough to see him waiting two years for major minutes.

It's a cut throat business, but hopefully if there IS writing on the wall by October, Wojo conveys that directly to the interested party so he can decide to transfer before burning any eligibility.

[brewcity77]

I just don't see how one of them doesn't move on - it will really depend on if/how Cain develops over the summer and how ready-to-go Bailey is. Even if Bailey is willing to accept a more limited role this year, the log-jam will persist for two more years - if he doesn't displace Junior Sacar will he really be able to displace Senior Sacar? Tough to see him waiting two years for major minutes.

I'm not sure you understand my argument. Sacar took a redshirt. Here are his transfer options:

Transfer now: Sacar would have to sit a year in residence. Because he already sat his redshirt year, he loses his entire junior year and is only eligible to play one.

Transfer at semester: Sacar would play first semester (6-10 games), sit out a year, then play the last 20-22 games at a new school. He would likely get less than a full season over the final two years of his college career.

Transfer after the season: Sacar could play his entire junior year, graduate, then play his entire senior year. Even if he plays 1 mpg all year, this is the only scenario in which he's eligible both years.

Now two things. First, there is a ton of backup quarterback syndrome going on. Sacar averaged 27 mpg last year. The idea that new guys will come in and force him to single digit minutes is crazy to me. Will he see a decline? Yes. But into the teens, not the single digits.

Second, Sacar improved a ton last season. Over the last 15 games he averaged 10 ppg while improving his two worst shooting categories -- he shot 66.7% from the line and 38.9% from three. He was also our best defender. He is a legit high major starter with two years to play. Maybe it won't all be here, but he's a good player and getting better. Not sure why everyone wants to replace him so quickly.

[SaveOD238]

Everyone is talking about Sam only playing the 3 position, but I'm not convinced that Sam has the lateral quickness to guard some opposing 3s.  Offensively we might see Sam playing more 3, but on defense, he'll have to be paired with someone quicker who can guard on the perimeter.  Maybe that's Ed or Joey and the 3-4 swap is easy.  Otherwise it will be Sacar, Jamal, Greg, or Brendan at which point Sam will be the 4 on offense anyway.

Or maybe my impression of Sam is clouded because we only got to see slow, injured Sam for the last month of the season.

[1SE]

I'm not sure you understand my argument. Sacar took a redshirt. Here are his transfer options:

Transfer now: Sacar would have to sit a year in residence. Because he already sat his redshirt year, he loses his entire junior year and is only eligible to play one.

Transfer at semester: Sacar would play first semester (6-10 games), sit out a year, then play the last 20-22 games at a new school. He would likely get less than a full season over the final two years of his college career.

Transfer after the season: Sacar could play his entire junior year, graduate, then play his entire senior year. Even if he plays 1 mpg all year, this is the only scenario in which he's eligible both years.

Now two things. First, there is a ton of backup quarterback syndrome going on. Sacar averaged 27 mpg last year. The idea that new guys will come in and force him to single digit minutes is crazy to me. Will he see a decline? Yes. But into the teens, not the single digits.

Second, Sacar improved a ton last season. Over the last 15 games he averaged 10 ppg while improving his two worst shooting categories -- he shot 66.7% from the line and 38.9% from three. He was also our best defender. He is a legit high major starter with two years to play. Maybe it won't all be here, but he's a good player and getting better. Not sure why everyone wants to replace him so quickly.

I guess I didn't realize that if Sacar transfers before the season starts he only has 1 year of eligibility left - this is because he took a redshirt? I agree then that it doesn't make any sense at all for him to transfer - even if he has a reduced role this year.

IMO then the best case scenario is then that Sacar is encouraged to grad transfer and Bailey is encouraged to take a smaller role this year with the promise of a big uptick in minutes next year.

Of course the reality includes all sorts of things we don't know/can't foresee, but what else can we do on an offseason speculation thread.

[GGGG]

I guess I didn't realize that if Sacar transfers before the season starts he only has 1 year of eligibility left - this is because he took a redshirt?

Yes.  You have five years to complete four years of eligibility unless you receive a waiver of some sort.  Those waivers are rare without injury.

[1SE]

Everyone is talking about Sam only playing the 3 position, but I'm not convinced that Sam has the lateral quickness to guard some opposing 3s.  Offensively we might see Sam playing more 3, but on defense, he'll have to be paired with someone quicker who can guard on the perimeter.  Maybe that's Ed or Joey and the 3-4 swap is easy.  Otherwise it will be Sacar, Jamal, Greg, or Brendan at which point Sam will be the 4 on offense anyway.

Or maybe my impression of Sam is clouded because we only got to see slow, injured Sam for the last month of the season.

I kind of agree which is why I'm so intrigued that everyone else has Sam as most likely to make the NBA. If he can't guard BE 3s, how can he defend in the NBA? (FWIW I think he probably CAN guard BE 3s (especially if the rest of the team is upgraded in terms of D, but I am skeptical of his lateral quickness at the next level - Sam's a smart, but not overly athletic, defender - that can make you serviceable enough on D in the NCAA but I don't think it meets the bar in the NBA).

[1SE]

Yes.  You have five years to complete four years of eligibility unless you receive a waiver of some sort.  Those waivers are rare without injury.

So he transfers before the season, puts on a walking boot and takes a medical RS, and then still has 2 years of eligibility left?

[GGGG]

I kind of agree which is why I'm so intrigued that everyone else has Sam as most likely to make the NBA. If he can't guard BE 3s, how can he defend in the NBA? (FWIW I think he probably CAN guard BE 3s (especially if the rest of the team is upgraded in terms of D, but I am skeptical of his lateral quickness at the next level - Sam's a smart, but not overly athletic, defender - that can make you serviceable enough on D in the NCAA but I don't think it meets the bar in the NBA).

Because he can score.  Yeah he would have trouble guarding one-on-one, but he's not a terrible defender by any means. 

Would he be a superstar in the NBA?  No.  Can he be a rotation guy?  Yes - if his offensive game continues to evolve.  I'm not saying it's for sure, but I can see his path to get there.

[Galway Eagle]

I guess I didn't realize that if Sacar transfers before the season starts he only has 1 year of eligibility left - this is because he took a redshirt? I agree then that it doesn't make any sense at all for him to transfer - even if he has a reduced role this year.

IMO then the best case scenario is then that Sacar is encouraged to grad transfer and Bailey is encouraged to take a smaller role this year with the promise of a big uptick in minutes next year.

Of course the reality includes all sorts of things we don't know/can't foresee, but what else can we do on an offseason speculation thread.

Best case is bailey redshirts. Would be a complete waste of a year for him to be out of shape and rusty because he wants to play bad. That'd likely leave enough minutes everywhere else to make people happy. Then next year see Sacar grad transfer.

[Its DJOver]

A couple points.

We have four players coming off injuries, if any of those recoveries take longer and prevent someone from starting the season healthy that's more minutes for other players.

We have depth right now, we have no idea what possible injuries can happen.  With the depth that we have, if there were to be an injury like Greg had last year, where you could play through it, but not as effectively Wojo will be much more likely to shut them down and go for a medical redshirt. That opens up minutes for other players.

People are penciling both Markus and Sam in for 30 minutes because they played 30+ last year.  While they will certainly have some games where they play 30+, I don't think they will average that.  Last year I would guess that our big three had 80% of the shots under 4 minutes,  if our offense is more balanced this year, which it should be, I could easily see Wojo putting out a defensive unit that doesn't include either Sam or Markus.  Give me a JC, Sacar/Greg, Jamal, Ed, and Matt as our best defensive line-up to hold onto a lead.

Also, Winning cures all.  If an underclassman is getting single digit minutes on a team that wins 25+ games, it is easier to sell them the fact that they just aren't there yet because of the talent around them, but that the program can continue to win in the future with them in the starting line-up.  This is why I could see Brendan, Jamal or Greg taking a smaller role next year, with the promise of a larger role in the years to come.

Finally, suggesting that a player will transfer at the semester next year when it is currently April, is foolish.  We have no idea what is going through these kids heads, and we have no idea what Wojo is telling them about their future minutes and roles.  Some players know that they don't have a shot at the NBA and are just happy being a role player,  that's all they're asked to be and that's all they are.  Suggesting that role players will transfer in 8-9 months is ridiculous.

I know both the odds, and recent history suggest that someone will transfer between now and this time next year, but it is way to early to have any idea who that will be, if anyone at all.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Because he can score.  Yeah he would have trouble guarding one-on-one, but he's not a terrible defender by any means. 

Would he be a superstar in the NBA?  No.  Can he be a rotation guy?  Yes - if his offensive game continues to evolve.  I'm not saying it's for sure, but I can see his path to get there.

He can shoot like Novak from deep (not as good - Novak a top 10 all-timer ridiculous) and all other aspects of his game are more well-rounded, especially his defense. Novak had a decade-long career based on shooting alone, I see Sam playing at least couple years in the league. Hell, Jason Kapono had a 9 year career. Sam's better than him.

[Floorslapper]

Best case is bailey redshirts. Would be a complete waste of a year for him to be out of shape and rusty because he wants to play bad. That'd likely leave enough minutes everywhere else to make people happy. Then next year see Sacar grad transfer.

I agree with this analysis.

Though Sacar could evolve into one of our Top 5 players by his ultimate 5th year in the program.  I like his potential.

Perhaps at that point, if Sacar chooses to NOT grad transfer, and writing is on wall for Cain or  Elliott that their minutes might be in the 15-20 range as Juniors, depending on where they are at in their physical/strength development, maybe you could sell a redshirt to one of them..

Good "problems" to have, and a testament to the recruiting job done by this staff.