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MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: ChitownSpaceForRent on April 23, 2018, 09:30:39 AM

Title: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: ChitownSpaceForRent on April 23, 2018, 09:30:39 AM
Now that the roster is set, how do you guys see the breakdown?

1-JC 30, Markus 10
2-Markus 25, Elliott 15
3-Sam 25, Cain 15
4-Morrow 20, Joey 10, Sam 5
5-Heldt 20, Theo 15, Morrow 5

This is an extremely rough estimate. I know Sacar will get playing time, I just have no idea where, same with Joey. It's nice to have options though.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: KampusFoods on April 23, 2018, 09:37:25 AM
Think you're high on Heldt, way low on Joey, obviously low on Sacar (he may start). Wojo and co. have their work cut out for them finding the right lineups. Good problem to have.

Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: GGGG on April 23, 2018, 09:43:11 AM
Now that the roster is set, how do you guys see the breakdown?

1-JC 30, Markus 10
2-Markus 25, Elliott 15
3-Sam 25, Cain 15
4-Morrow 25, Joey 10, Sam 5
5-Heldt 25, Theo 15, Morrow 5

This is an extremely rough estimate. I know Sacar will get playing time, I just have no idea where, same with Joey. It's nice to have options though.


Joey will get more than 10 mpg if he is healthy.

More like:

Markus: 28
Sam: 28
Morrow: 22
JC: 21
Joey: 18
Heldt: 18
Greg: 15
Cain: 15
Sacar: 13
Theo: 13
Bailey: 6
Ike: 3

I think the rotation will be cut down so that by conference season, Bailey and Ike will see a lot of DNPs with some single digit nights for Sacar.  It's going to depend on what they need from game to game.  Defense will mean more Sacar and less Cain, and vice versa.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Mr. Sand-Knit on April 23, 2018, 09:49:30 AM
Agree sacar is not any good.  Joey should get his minutes on day 1.  Cain, elliot, theo between 10-20 depending on thrir improvemnt.  I see sacar as a single digit in conference, more if he has a creighton type night.  Possible grad transfer to a mid major. Add Koby and others in 19, cain n elliot juniors, joey, sam, marcus ... where are sacars minutes.  Gotta be able to shoot it.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Its DJOver on April 23, 2018, 09:51:18 AM

Joey will get more than 10 mpg if he is healthy.

More like:

Markus: 28
Sam: 28
Morrow: 22
JC: 21
Joey: 18
Heldt: 18
Greg: 15
Cain: 15
Sacar: 13
Theo: 13
Bailey: 6
Ike: 3

I think the rotation will be cut down so that by conference season, Bailey and Ike will see a lot of DNPs with some single digit nights for Sacar.  It's going to depend on what they need from game to game.  Defense will mean more Sacar and less Cain, and vice versa.

I think that's a little low on Theo.  Matt will in all likelihood still start, but based on his improvement during last season, I don't think that Theo will only get a 1 mpg bump next year.  I think they'll both be between 15 and 18.  Also while Ed will get some minutes at the 5, I think it'll be less than 5 per game, unless extreme foul situation.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on April 23, 2018, 10:00:34 AM
Next year will be Wojo's biggest challenge in roster management. Lots of players worthy of minutes. Almost think you have to do a redshirt (on top of McEwen).

Rough guess:

1: Chartouney 25, Howard 15
2: Howard 15,  Elliott 15, Anim 10
3: S Hauser 20, Anim 10, J Hauser 5, Bailey 5
4: Morrow 15, J Hauser 15, S Hauser 10
5: Heldt 15, John 15, Morrow 10

Garbage Minutes Only: Eke
Redshirt: Cain

Total Minutes per Game:
S Hauser 30
Howard 30
Chartouney 25
Morrow 25
Anim 20
J Hauser 20
Elliott 15
Heldt 15
John 15
Bailey 5
Eke GT
Cain RS

And this is knowing next to nothing about Bailey. He was the #92 freshman in the 2016 class. Is he coming in like the #92 freshman? Is he coming in like a former #92 freshman who is now an upperclassmen? There's a chance he could be very good right away.

This is also without knowing how much Elliott's injury hampered him last season. It's possible that he be one of the most improved players in the Big East.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: MU82 on April 23, 2018, 10:21:04 AM
Next year will be Wojo's biggest challenge in roster management. Lots of players worthy of minutes. Almost think you have to do a redshirt (on top of McEwen).

Rough guess:

1: Chartouney 25, Howard 15
2: Howard 15,  Elliott 15, Anim 10
3: S Hauser 20, Anim 10, J Hauser 5, Bailey 5
4: Morrow 15, J Hauser 15, S Hauser 10
5: Heldt 15, John 15, Morrow 10

Garbage Minutes Only: Eke
Redshirt: Cain

Total Minutes per Game:
S Hauser 30
Howard 30
Chartouney 25
Morrow 25
Anim 20
J Hauser 20
Elliott 15
Heldt 15
John 15
Bailey 5
Eke GT
Cain RS

And this is knowing next to nothing about Bailey. He was the #92 freshman in the 2016 class. Is he coming in like the #92 freshman? Is he coming in like a former #92 freshman who is now an upperclassmen? There's a chance he could be very good right away.

This is also without knowing how much Elliott's injury hampered him last season. It's possible that he be one of the most improved players in the Big East.

Cain as redshirt is a very bold prediction, TAMU.

Based on how much he improved last season, it's hard to imagine it. He averaged 20 mpg in our last 7 games and 21 in the NIT. Shot nearly 50% from 3. Disruptive force on D (even if he was a little lost sometimes because he was a frosh). It's really hard to imagine Wojo's ability to sell Cain on it; it's not as if Cain got Sacar-type minutes as a frosh. But I guess anything is possible. I would think Cain would get some (most) of Sacar's minutes, and if I had to make a bold prediction it might be Sacar leaving vs. Cain redshirting.

Otherwise, your ,pg distribution seems reasonable.

Agree with others who say Wojo has his work cut out for him, and that it will be a great problem to have.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: brewcity77 on April 23, 2018, 10:23:02 AM
When Wojo had depth in 2016-17, no one played more than 27 minutes. He's not Ed Cooley where all starters get 37+, he wants his to rest. On this team, he can do that.

1: Chartouny 25, Howard 10, Elliott 5
2: Howard 15, Elliott 10, Anim 10, Cain 3, Bailey 2
3: S. Hauser 15, Cain 10, Anim 5, Elliott 5, J. Hauser 3, Bailey 2
4: Morrow 20, J. Hauser 10, S. Hauser 10
5: Heldt 18, John 15, Morrow 5, Eke 2

Totals

Joseph Chartouny 25
Markus Howard 25
Sam Hauser 25
Ed Morrow 25
Greg Elliott 20
Matt Heldt 18
Sacar Anim 15
Theo John 15
Jamal Cain 13
Joey Hauser 13
Brendan Bailey 4
Ike Eke 2
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: onepost on April 23, 2018, 10:27:32 AM
Next year will be Wojo's biggest challenge in roster management. Lots of players worthy of minutes. Almost think you have to do a redshirt (on top of McEwen).

Rough guess:

Redshirt: Cain



TAMU, I agree with damn near 99% of your posts, but this I am baffled by.
Jamal made some of the greatest strides of anyone we had last year, and his ceiling is the highest on the entire team.

Now if you've heard something from someone then by all means I'll defer to you, but I can't see any scenario where Jamal isn't a very big part of each team going forward.
I think a more likely scenario is Sacar opts out and tries to find greener PT pastures than Jamal redshirting.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Nukem2 on April 23, 2018, 10:28:11 AM
Have the feeling that folks here are really underselling Brendan Bailey.  He was #62 in the RSCI ranking for 2016 class.  Sure, he will have some "rust".  But, this is a talented player.  Not going to get minor minutes I suspect.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on April 23, 2018, 10:28:54 AM
As of now, I see it shaking out something like this over the course of the season.  I think everyone will play early.  Rotation will be cut down by BE play.  Minutes will be tough to come for the Greg, Cain and Sacar group - not to mention Bailey and Eke.  But this is a very, very good problem to have.  We've never been more insulated to injuries, and this guy is happy we're finally not self-imposing scholarship deductions. 

PG: JC 25, Markus 15
SG: Markus 15, Greg 15, Sacar 10
SF: Sam 25, Cain 15
PF: Morrow 15, Joey 20, Sam 5
C: Theo 15, Heldt 15, Morrow 10

Totals:
Markus 30
Sam 30
Morrow 25
JC 25
Joey 20
Theo 15
Heldt 15
Cain 15
Greg 15
Sacar 10

Spot minutes for Bailey and Ike. 
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: brewcity77 on April 23, 2018, 10:39:57 AM
I could see the Cain redshirt simply on a numbers basis. In my projection, Anim, Joey, and Bailey would split his 13 minutes.

I don't think it will happen, but it's hard to find minutes for 12 guys without someone redshirting. Especially if the depth chart actually goes 10 deep, which means significant minutes for the 7 returning players, the 2 transfers, and one of the freshmen.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: nyg on April 23, 2018, 10:51:44 AM
Lets see.  Sam and Morrow will get big minutes next two years.  That leaves Cain, Joey, Sacar and Bailey fighting for reserve playing time. Someone not gonna be happy.

Guards are set with JC, Howard and Elliott, no problem with rotations there.

Center set with John, Heldt and Ike.

Good position for Wojo and staff to be in, but the minutes at the forward spots should be interesting. 



Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: ChitownSpaceForRent on April 23, 2018, 10:58:58 AM
Joey will get his minutes. Last year he probably would have gotten 20 a game, but he's walking into a unique situation with Morrow coming of his redshirt.

I think Cain will be the primary backup at the 3 for Sam, Sacar may be on the outside looking in despite having a pretty nice season.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on April 23, 2018, 11:12:46 AM
Cain as redshirt is a very bold prediction, TAMU.

Based on how much he improved last season, it's hard to imagine it. He averaged 20 mpg in our last 7 games and 21 in the NIT. Shot nearly 50% from 3. Disruptive force on D (even if he was a little lost sometimes because he was a frosh). It's really hard to imagine Wojo's ability to sell Cain on it; it's not as if Cain got Sacar-type minutes as a frosh. But I guess anything is possible. I would think Cain would get some (most) of Sacar's minutes, and if I had to make a bold prediction it might be Sacar leaving vs. Cain redshirting.

Otherwise, your ,pg distribution seems reasonable.

Agree with others who say Wojo has his work cut out for him, and that it will be a great problem to have.

I'd plop him in front of TV and play a clip of Mikal Bridges getting his named called as a lottery pick and say "I want to use this redshirt year to make this happen for you"

I'm not going to go into all of my thinking on this topic because I think I might do a quick PT post on it. But I think there are a lot of reasons why it would make sense. I am a big fan of the redshirt and think it is criminally underused in college basketball. Glad Wojo found a way to use it each of the last two years. With 12 high major caliber players eligible to play next season (assuming Eke is healthy), I think it would be a waste not to use it.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on April 23, 2018, 11:15:48 AM
I'd plop him in front of TV and play a clip of Mikal Bridges getting his named called as a lottery pick and say "I want to use this redshirt year to make this happen for you"

I'm not going to go into all of my thinking on this topic because I think I might do a quick PT post on it. But I think there are a lot of reasons why it would make sense. I am a big fan of the redshirt and think it is criminally underused in college basketball. Glad Wojo found a way to use it each of the last two years. With 12 high major caliber players eligible to play next season (assuming Eke is healthy), I think it would be a waste not to use it.

It is likely criminally underused because in many scenarios the guy you just redshirted is going to bounce after his junior year of eligibility and go play for someone else. 
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: brewcity77 on April 23, 2018, 11:22:24 AM
It is likely criminally underused because in many scenarios the guy you just redshirted is going to bounce after his junior year of eligibility and go play for someone else.

Except they generally don't unless they are losing minutes. Duane left because he had fallen back since his freshman year. Rowsey, Jamil, and Otule all stayed because they still had opportunity. Hell, Jake Thomas announced his transfer then changed his mind when Vander Blue declared. No opportunity, I'm gone. More opportunity, I'll stay.

If he redshirts and leaves, it's either for the NBA or because someone passed him by. If he's a starter, he likely stays. I'm fine with all of that.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: ChitownSpaceForRent on April 23, 2018, 11:26:37 AM
Except they generally don't unless they are losing minutes. Duane left because he had fallen back since his freshman year. Rowsey, Jamil, and Otule all stayed because they still had opportunity. Hell, Jake Thomas announced his transfer then changed his mind when Vander Blue declared. No opportunity, I'm gone. More opportunity, I'll stay.

If he redshirts and leaves, it's either for the NBA or because someone passed him by. If he's a starter, he likely stays. I'm fine with all of that.

Completely forgot about Jake Thomas and Juan Anderson announcing their transfers and then staying.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: brewcity77 on April 23, 2018, 11:29:49 AM
Completely forgot about Jake Thomas and Juan Anderson announcing their transfers and then staying.

That was a crazy offseason. Ferguson also transferred then there was the McKay departure. The season that should've been Marquette's Big East title and Final Four run and instead we don't even make the tournament. That's the most disgraceful season of the 21st century, punctuated by Buzz leaving.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on April 23, 2018, 11:32:09 AM
Except they generally don't unless they are losing minutes. Duane left because he had fallen back since his freshman year. Rowsey, Jamil, and Otule all stayed because they still had opportunity. Hell, Jake Thomas announced his transfer then changed his mind when Vander Blue declared. No opportunity, I'm gone. More opportunity, I'll stay.

If he redshirts and leaves, it's either for the NBA or because someone passed him by. If he's a starter, he likely stays. I'm fine with all of that.

I wasn't referring to Marquette specifically, just college basketball in general.  Red shirting a guy for non injury related reasons opens up the possibility of you spending 4 scholarships to only get 3 years of play out of him.  Sometimes they make a ton of sense - like Sacar for instance.  He wasn't going to play much as a sophomore, so why not?  I think they make sense in some scenarios.

I think finding a redshirt for next season isn't a terrible idea due to the number of players deserving of minutes.  Just not sure who the best fit is.  Cain is an interesting one, but I personally don't see it happening.  Bailey maybe...but my guess is he really wants to play after not playing competitively for 2 years..and I am sure the coaching staff wants him to get on the court as well...but I just don't see many minutes for him at all. 

Like I said earlier...this is a very good problem to have.   
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on April 23, 2018, 11:34:53 AM
It is likely criminally underused because in many scenarios the guy you just redshirted is going to bounce after his junior year of eligibility and go play for someone else.

Statistically speaking a very small % of players who are grad transfer eligible actually use it. Like Brew said at high majors it usually only happens if the player has lost his minutes
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: wadesworld on April 23, 2018, 11:46:09 AM
Sam 30
Markus 28
Joey 24
Chartouney 24
Ed 23
Sacar 16
Jamal 14
Greg 13
Theo 10
Heldt 10
Bailey 7
Ike 2
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: MU82 on April 23, 2018, 11:49:34 AM
I'd plop him in front of TV and play a clip of Mikal Bridges getting his named called as a lottery pick and say "I want to use this redshirt year to make this happen for you"

I'm not going to go into all of my thinking on this topic because I think I might do a quick PT post on it. But I think there are a lot of reasons why it would make sense. I am a big fan of the redshirt and think it is criminally underused in college basketball. Glad Wojo found a way to use it each of the last two years. With 12 high major caliber players eligible to play next season (assuming Eke is healthy), I think it would be a waste not to use it.

I look forward to reading your article, and I won't ask you to "give it away" here.

But the redshirts the last 2 years - Sacar in 2016-17 and Eke in 2017-18 - were coming off seasons that there absolutely nothing like the one Cain just came off of.

Sacar was a sub-mediocre bit player the year before his redshirt, with 16 DNP-CDs and otherwise garbage-time minutes. Eke was hurt. Even Bridges ... he redshirted before he ever played a game for Nova - that's a much easier sell, and was probably part of the recruiting pitch.

Cain had a decent-to-good freshman season (depending upon who is doing the grading) and got better as the season progressed.

I totally understand your reasoning, and I even (kind of) agree it might be a good thing for the program, but I just don't see it happening. Without knowing Cain at all, I think it would be a VERY tough sell.

"I know I said 100 times that you improved as much as anybody on our team (if not more). I know I said you were 'electrifying' several times. I know you shot nearly 50% from 3-point range. And I know I kept giving you more and more minutes. But now I want to shut you down for an entire year. Thanks!"

I just don't see it.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: GGGG on April 23, 2018, 12:03:25 PM
I think the chances of Bailey redshirting are greater than Cain.  (That is without knowing either of them personally.)

Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Nukem2 on April 23, 2018, 12:10:15 PM
I think the chances of Bailey redshirting are greater than Cain.  (That is without knowing either of them personally.)
Seriously doubt that Bailey would redshirt.  He has already not played for 2 years.  Cain won’t either.  MU needs his length and bounciness as there is not much of either on this squad.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: The Lens on April 23, 2018, 12:11:09 PM
I think the chances of Bailey redshirting are greater than Cain.  (That is without knowing either of them personally.)

A picture of Bailey was posted when he attended the MU @ Gtown game last month.  He looked EXTREMELY skinny. 
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: muguru on April 23, 2018, 12:13:03 PM
I personally think some of the above minute projections for Joey are too low. They will find minutes for him wherever they can.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Galway Eagle on April 23, 2018, 12:37:44 PM
Doesn't the Mormon religion teach selflessness and all that jazz? If it's best for the team bailey should red shirt. I mean outside of a couple hours of time playing on a court I can't imagine he could do much to stay in shape these past two years. Pushups planks and crunches in his room?
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: tower912 on April 23, 2018, 12:39:44 PM
The minutes will take care of themselves.    And if MU's problem is that there are too many players playing really well, then I think even the perpetually grumpy will be pleased.     And, when in doubt, press.   
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Seashells on April 23, 2018, 01:59:34 PM
Who's on the court in the last 5 minutes?
JC
Howard
Elliot
Sam
Morrow (if he can shoot free throws) or Heldt
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: ChitownSpaceForRent on April 23, 2018, 02:48:56 PM
Who's on the court in the last 5 minutes?
JC
Howard
Elliot
Sam
Morrow (if he can shoot free throws) or Heldt

JC
Markus
Sam
Morrow

And depends on the situation for your 5th guy.

Theo/Heldt if you need to go big
Cain for a shooter
Elliott for an extra ball handler

Morrow is 100% on the floor just for his rebounding ability alone.

That's a pretty solid lineup. JC handling the ball, Sam in the middle of the press break and Markus for a leak out option.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Its DJOver on April 23, 2018, 02:52:46 PM
Who's on the court in the last 5 minutes?
JC
Howard
Elliot
Sam
Morrow (if he can shoot free throws) or Heldt

Hoping there's a lot of situations where our lineup the last five minutes are:

Cam
Elliott
Sacar
Brendan
Ike

If those five get on the floor at the same time, I doubt we'll lose.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: krumrmf on April 23, 2018, 02:57:15 PM
1: JC (25), Howard (10), Greg (5)
2: Howard (20), Anim (10), Greg (10)
3: Sam (25), Cain (10), Anim (5)
4: Morrow (20), Joey (15), Sam (5)
5: Heldt (20), Theo (15), Morrow (5)

Extra time for Ike and Bailey

Heldt and Anim and Wojo's guys so they will get their minutes (not really a bad thing).
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: MU82 on April 23, 2018, 03:04:41 PM
1: JC (25), Howard (10), Greg (5)
2: Howard (20), Anim (10), Greg (10)
3: Sam (25), Cain (10), Anim (5)
4: Morrow (20), Joey (15), Sam (5)
5: Heldt (20), Theo (15), Morrow (5)

Extra time for Ike and Bailey

Heldt and Anim and Wojo's guys so they will get their minutes (not really a bad thing).

Reasonable, but if Joey really is as good as so many Scoopers who have seen a lot of him claim, it's hard to believe he won't get more minutes than Heldt, Theo, Anim and Elliott.

I've never seen him, so I'm hoping he is close to as good at his role as big bro Sam is at his.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on April 23, 2018, 04:05:04 PM
Who's on the court in the last 5 minutes?
JC
Howard
Elliot
Sam
Morrow (if he can shoot free throws) or Heldt

It depends on what you need.

Defending a lead:
JC
Elliott
Anim
S Hauser
Heldt

Trailing from behind
JC
Howard
S Hauser
J Hauser
Morrow

Back and forth battle
JC
Howard
S Hauser
Morrow
Heldt
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on April 23, 2018, 04:05:52 PM
It depends on what you need.

Defending a lead:
JC
Elliott
Anim
S Hauser
Heldt

Trailing from behind
JC
Howard
S Hauser
J Hauser
Morrow

Back and forth battle
JC
Howard
S Hauser
Morrow
Heldt unless John is in Tarzan mode
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: GB Warrior on April 23, 2018, 05:27:55 PM
1: JC (25), Howard (10), Greg (5)
2: Howard (20), Anim (10), Greg (10)
3: Sam (25), Cain (10), Anim (5)
4: Morrow (20), Joey (15), Sam (5)
5: Heldt (20), Theo (15), Morrow (5)

Extra time for Ike and Bailey

Heldt and Anim and Wojo's guys so they will get their minutes (not really a bad thing).

This feels the closest to me. TAMU's is also close, though I just can't see Cain taking a seat given his impact in his limited run - as someone else said, his season was radically different than the others that have used the RS.

Another thing that is worth playing with in non-con: our version of the death lineup in limited run. It didn't work with Rowsey and Markus together, and probably require a less than lethal 3pt shooter on the floor (Greg or JC). I'd love limited run of:

Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: IrwinFletcher on April 23, 2018, 05:53:29 PM
A picture of Bailey was posted when he attended the MU @ Gtown game last month.  He looked EXTREMELY skinny.

https://twitter.com/georgieb16/status/973076946157359104?s=21
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on April 23, 2018, 08:59:04 PM
This feels the closest to me. TAMU's is also close, though I just can't see Cain taking a seat given his impact in his limited run - as someone else said, his season was radically different than the others that have used the RS.

Another thing that is worth playing with in non-con: our version of the death lineup in limited run. It didn't work with Rowsey and Markus together, and probably require a less than lethal 3pt shooter on the floor (Greg or JC). I'd love limited run of:

  • Markus
  • JC
  • Thing 1
  • Thing 2
  • Morrow

Limited death lineup? That's exactly who I'd start and play the majority of minutes. Except JC plays and guards the opposing 1 (cut off the head), while Markus shoots and guards off the ball
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: wadesworld on April 23, 2018, 11:03:09 PM
I would be absolutely thrilled if we get to the point where a top 45 recruit comes to MU and sees 10 minutes a game.  Especially one who got that ranking based not on "measurables" but on skillset and IQ.

I'll go on record and say it's infinitely more likely that Joey is a 1 and done than it is he sees 10 or less minutes.  But if I had to put money on it I say he's here for 3 seasons and starts for all 3 of those.  Or at least gets starter minutes.  I would be absolutely shocked if any of Theo, Jamal, Greg, or Sacar see more minutes than him.  Think a more team oriented Henry Ellenson.

Also Sacar was a better version of both Cain and Elliott last year.  If those two want to pass Sacar in minutes they'll need to improve more than Sacar does this offseason.

I think Cain has the potential to be very, very good.  I'm not sure Elliott is ever more than a high energy, defensive minded grinder.  And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.  But in my opinion he's a less skilled Sacar.  Sacar is very undervalued here.  He was great at what he was asked to do last season, and next year it'll be even more evident when the rest of the team is better at what they're asked to do around him.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: MU82 on April 24, 2018, 12:25:43 AM
I would be absolutely thrilled if we get to the point where a top 45 recruit comes to MU and sees 10 minutes a game.  Especially one who got that ranking based not on "measurables" but on skillset and IQ.

I'll go on record and say it's infinitely more likely that Joey is a 1 and done than it is he sees 10 or less minutes.  But if I had to put money on it I say he's here for 3 seasons and starts for all 3 of those.  Or at least gets starter minutes.  I would be absolutely shocked if any of Theo, Jamal, Greg, or Sacar see more minutes than him.  Think a more team oriented Henry Ellenson.

Also Sacar was a better version of both Cain and Elliott last year.  If those two want to pass Sacar in minutes they'll need to improve more than Sacar does this offseason.

I think Cain has the potential to be very, very good.  I'm not sure Elliott is ever more than a high energy, defensive minded grinder.  And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.  But in my opinion he's a less skilled Sacar.  Sacar is very undervalued here.  He was great at what he was asked to do last season, and next year it'll be even more evident when the rest of the team is better at what they're asked to do around him.

Although I don't rank Sacar quite as highly as you do, I sure allow for the possibility of you being right about all of this - and I hope you are.

Meanwhile, the only thing I know about Joey is that a lot of Scoopers who have seen him play say he's a stud, and a lot of y'all have been saying for 3 years now that he's the better Hauser. Both of which make me really psyched to see him in an MU uni.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: SaveOD238 on April 24, 2018, 06:49:44 AM
I think instead of a specific lineup it might be easier to look at positions.

Center is easy.  Matt will start most games.  Sometimes he’ll play 30 and Theo 10.  Sometimes it will flip based on matchups or the hot hand.  Ike won’t play much after non-con.  We might see Morrow or Joey here if we go small for a few minutes a game.

Guard is pretty easy too.  I expect Chartouny and Markus to start.  Greg and Sacar will be the primary backups.  Maybe Jamal or Brendan if we go big.

Wings/Forwards is tough.  We will probably see two of these players on the court at all times: Sam, Joey, Jamal, Ed, Brendan.  Which two will change, and I think it will change often, with lots of subs.  Of those players, I think Ed (4) and Brendan (3) are the only ones we will see in only one of the two forward spots.  If we go small or quick, we could see Sacar or even Greg at the 3 spot, but not for extended periods, because our guard depth is too limited.

If you want a really bonkers redshirt idea...why not one of the Hausers?  Especially if they aren’t healthy at the beginning of the season?  It would clear up the log jam at forward, though it would cut down on our chances of success next year.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on April 24, 2018, 07:33:15 AM
Well Sam is our best player and Joey already used his red shirt so I would say a Hauser red shirt is a non starter
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: GOO on April 24, 2018, 09:13:19 AM
We should have five guys ready to play guard.  Four that will see time almost every game.   We have 3 (JC, Howard, Greg).  So, Sacar and Cain are the most likely to be the 4th and 5th options. 

I suspect Cain will be the fourth guard if he can defend the off guard.  He can shoot and the offense doesn't have to change as much as when Sacar would sub out Howard or Greg.  This is assuming that Sacar has trouble with the 3 ball this year.  So, I don't see Cain redshirting, given that after those 5, there is not anyone that can really play guard that I am aware of.  Cain improved so much during the year, he probably comes back even better this fall.

Sacar will most likely continue to be the guy that comes in and plays some D when needed on certain players from the 1 to 3 this year.

Plus, Wojo will probably sub more and maybe press some and demand a lot of energy from all players.  He has the depth to do this year.

My question is can JC stop the ball/penetration.  Does he have the lateral quickness?  If so, that would be nice, as last year with Howard and Rowsey, this was so often a problem - at times seemed like a layup drill. 

Also, I don't totally put the pick and roll failure on Rowsey.  Part of the problem was Heldt and Theo getting back into position or trying to guard a guard.  But the recovery on Heldt's part led to a lot of defense breakdown, at least in my eye test/viewing (I have no stats on these opinions).  Heldt is probably limited due to foot speed, but Theo can and should get better.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on April 24, 2018, 09:44:16 AM
I think by conference play, in a normal game, we'll go 10/11 deep, with the bottom 2/3 getting ~5 mpg. In blowouts, with foul trouble, or if nothing seem to be working, minutes will be spread out more (duh). In big games and down the stretch near tourney time, the rotation will tighten to 8/9 players. Here's how I see those scenarios playing out.

Base/normal case

1: JC 28, Elliott 12
2: M2N 28, Elliott 6, Cain 6
3: Hauser the Elder 20, Cain 12, Anim 4, BB 4
4: Hauser the Younger 24, Hauser the Elder 8, Morrow 8
5: Morrow 20, Theo 10, Heldt 8 (may start for tip), Hauser the Younger 2

That's 28 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 26 for Joey, 18 for GE/Cain, 10 for Theo, 8 for Heldt, 8 combined for Anim/Bailey

With minutes spread due to foul trouble/blowout/nothing working

1: JC 24, Elliott 12, M2N 4
2: M2N 20, Elliott 6, Cain 6, Anim 4, Bailey 4
3: Hauser the Elder 20, Cain 12, Anim 4, Bailey 4
4: Hauser the Younger 22, Hauser the Elder 4, Morrow 8, Theo 3, Eke 3
5: Morrow 16, Theo 11, Heldt 8, Eke 5

That's 24 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 22 for Joey, 18 for GE/Cain, 14 for Theo, 8 for Heldt, 16 combined for Anim/Bailey, Eke 8

Tightened rotation in big games/March

1: JC 32, Elliott 8
2: M2N 32, Elliott 4, Cain 4
3: Hauser the Elder 26, , Cain 10, Hauser the Younger 4
4: Hauser the Younger 26, Hauser the Elder 6, Morrow 8
5: Morrow 24, Theo 10, Heldt 6

That's 32 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 30 for Joey, 14 for Cain, 12 for GE, 10 for Theo, 6 for Heldt

Lineup on floor in crunch time

JC, M2N, Sam, Joey, Ed (best 5 players)

Lineup to defend a large lead down the stretch

JC, Greg, Anim, Morrow, Theo (height, athleticism, strength, 5 best defenders)
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: SaveOD238 on April 24, 2018, 09:56:19 AM
Well Sam is our best player and Joey already used his red shirt so I would say a Hauser red shirt is a non starter

I was mostly thinking in case of injury.  If Sam can't go until December or January, should we hold him out?  Same goes for Joey (though if 17-18 counts as Joey's redshirt year he'd have to get a medical hardship waiver I assume). 
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Floorslapper on April 24, 2018, 10:05:40 AM
I'd plop him in front of TV and play a clip of Mikal Bridges getting his named called as a lottery pick and say "I want to use this redshirt year to make this happen for you"

I'm not going to go into all of my thinking on this topic because I think I might do a quick PT post on it. But I think there are a lot of reasons why it would make sense. I am a big fan of the redshirt and think it is criminally underused in college basketball. Glad Wojo found a way to use it each of the last two years. With 12 high major caliber players eligible to play next season (assuming Eke is healthy), I think it would be a waste not to use it.

Hey TAMU - I LOVE Cain.  Floated red shirt idea during conference play this past season.  A year of dedicated strength and conditioning could do wonders for his game.  Yet, as I think about it, he's probably a guy that is going to be in the Top 7 of rotation THIS year.  As a result, I'd be inclined to NOT go the redshirt route, even if Cain were willing.

I see Top 10 in order as:

Markus
Sam
Morrow
Joey
Chardonnay
Jamal
Greg
Theo
Sacar
Heldt

I'd probably be more inclined to see if they could talk Elliott into a red shirt, as he, like Cain, needs a lot of work in the weight room - I'd say even more than Jamal.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on April 24, 2018, 10:07:48 AM
I was mostly thinking in case of injury.  If Sam can't go until December or January, should we hold him out?  Same goes for Joey (though if 17-18 counts as Joey's redshirt year he'd have to get a medical hardship waiver I assume).

One medical hardship no matta for Joey and Ike. They would need a 2nd medical hardship for it to make a difference. They cannot take a voluntary redshirt. (They would lose a year of eligibility if they sat out.)

For example, Kobe King played 10 games and got hurt. He'll get a medical hardship for last year. But he will not have the option to voluntarily redshirt the rest of his career.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: LloydsLegs on April 24, 2018, 10:23:36 AM
Best thing about this thread is that the amount of time Joey sees is so up on the air.  Tells you how deep this team is. 
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: mug644 on April 24, 2018, 10:41:00 AM
...

I'd probably be more inclined to see if they could talk Elliott into a red shirt, as he, like Cain, needs a lot of work in the weight room - I'd say even more than Jamal.

I think other players bring a more similar skill set to Cain than players do to Elliott. That makes Elliott more valuable to the team and less likely to redshirt, in my mind. Not that I think that Cain either should or will redshirt.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: GB Warrior on April 24, 2018, 11:02:11 AM
I think other players bring a more similar skill set to Cain than players do to Elliott. That makes Elliott more valuable to the team and less likely to redshirt, in my mind. Not that I think that Cain either should or will redshirt.

If anyone redshirts, it'll be a wing, and I have to think that it's Bailey even though he'll be 30 years old before seeing the court.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: mug644 on April 24, 2018, 11:16:20 AM
If anyone redshirts, it'll be a wing, and I have to think that it's Bailey even though he'll be 30 years old before seeing the court.

That's another/better way of saying what I tried to say...and, since I don't see any way that Bailey will redshirt after being away for 2 years already, my thinking is that it would be more likely to be Cain (a wing) than Elliott (a 2 who can hopefully back up the point). Again, I'll still be surprised if Cain redshirts.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Floorslapper on April 24, 2018, 11:21:29 AM
I think other players bring a more similar skill set to Cain than players do to Elliott. That makes Elliott more valuable to the team and less likely to redshirt, in my mind. Not that I think that Cain either should or will redshirt.

I can't quite get a clear read on Elliott...as if he'll be a star, or a solid contributor as a senior.  Think he oozes potential.  Going to be really good wing defender.  Athletic in transition.  Decent shooter.  Yet not laterally very quick.  By senior year should be good finisher at rim.

Feel all of these sam qualities apply to Cain, yet feel Cain due to additional length, size, and in my opinion, a better shot - give Cain the upper hand on Greg.

Definitely two of my favorite recruits Wojo has brought into the program.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: ChitownSpaceForRent on April 24, 2018, 01:37:04 PM
Who knows, Bailey may never see the floor for MU.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: MU82 on April 24, 2018, 01:45:42 PM
I think by conference play, in a normal game, we'll go 10/11 deep, with the bottom 2/3 getting ~5 mpg. In blowouts, with foul trouble, or if nothing seem to be working, minutes will be spread out more (duh). In big games and down the stretch near tourney time, the rotation will tighten to 8/9 players. Here's how I see those scenarios playing out.

Base/normal case

1: JC 28, Elliott 12
2: M2N 28, Elliott 6, Cain 6
3: Hauser the Elder 20, Cain 12, Anim 4, BB 4
4: Hauser the Younger 24, Hauser the Elder 8, Morrow 8
5: Morrow 20, Theo 10, Heldt 8 (may start for tip), Hauser the Younger 2

That's 28 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 26 for Joey, 18 for GE/Cain, 10 for Theo, 8 for Heldt, 8 combined for Anim/Bailey

With minutes spread due to foul trouble/blowout/nothing working

1: JC 24, Elliott 12, M2N 4
2: M2N 20, Elliott 6, Cain 6, Anim 4, Bailey 4
3: Hauser the Elder 20, Cain 12, Anim 4, Bailey 4
4: Hauser the Younger 22, Hauser the Elder 4, Morrow 8, Theo 3, Eke 3
5: Morrow 16, Theo 11, Heldt 8, Eke 5

That's 24 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 22 for Joey, 18 for GE/Cain, 14 for Theo, 8 for Heldt, 16 combined for Anim/Bailey, Eke 8

Tightened rotation in big games/March

1: JC 32, Elliott 8
2: M2N 32, Elliott 4, Cain 4
3: Hauser the Elder 26, , Cain 10, Hauser the Younger 4
4: Hauser the Younger 26, Hauser the Elder 6, Morrow 8
5: Morrow 24, Theo 10, Heldt 6

That's 32 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 30 for Joey, 14 for Cain, 12 for GE, 10 for Theo, 6 for Heldt

Lineup on floor in crunch time

JC, M2N, Sam, Joey, Ed (best 5 players)

Lineup to defend a large lead down the stretch

JC, Greg, Anim, Morrow, Theo (height, athleticism, strength, 5 best defenders)

I like how you have Heldt playing 6-8 minutes in every scenario because, if that happens, it will mean we are a better team than we have been.

I still don't see it happening, though. 1. Wojo likes Heldt. 2. Heldt did bring a calming effect sometimes last season that made the team play better.

I'd be happy with what it says about our team if Heldt is playing 10-15 mpg.

If Heldt is playing 25-30, that means either Theo hasn't progressed as much as we hoped, Wojo doesn't trust Theo enough or Heldt has become a heldt of a player. The last is the least-likely scenario IMHO.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on April 24, 2018, 02:17:48 PM
Honest question, when is the last time a Marquette freshman who played less minutes than a sophomore/junior at the same position then came back as a sophomore and then took minutes from that older player and surpassed them in minutes?

I know we like to believe that freshmen like Cain and John are going to go through such big jumps that they will pass upperclassmen like Anim and Heldt, but I honestly don't think it happens that often.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Pakuni on April 24, 2018, 02:27:14 PM
Honest question, when is the last time a Marquette freshman who played less minutes than a sophomore/junior at the same position then came back as a sophomore and then took minutes from that older player and surpassed them in minutes?

I know we like to believe that freshmen like Cain and John are going to go through such big jumps that they will pass upperclassmen like Anim and Heldt, but I honestly don't think it happens that often.

Off the top of my head ... Lazar played 16.3 mpg as a frosh, mostly behind Dan Fitzgerald, who played 21.7. The next year, he played 25.4 mpg to Fitz's 14.3.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: muwarrior69 on April 24, 2018, 02:30:11 PM
Off the top of my head ... Lazar played 16.3 mpg as a frosh, mostly behind Dan Fitzgerald, who played 21.7. The next year, he played 25.4 mpg to Fitz's 14.3.

That's pretty good for "off the top of my head"!
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on April 24, 2018, 02:30:49 PM
Honest question, when is the last time a Marquette freshman who played less minutes than a sophomore/junior at the same position then came back as a sophomore and then took minutes from that older player and surpassed them in minutes?

I know we like to believe that freshmen like Cain and John are going to go through such big jumps that they will pass upperclassmen like Anim and Heldt, but I honestly don't think it happens that often.

Agreed, but the complexion of the team & its overall needs will change drastically with the addition of Chartouny/Morrow/Hauser/Bailey

Anim/Heldt become less necessary, Elliott/Cain/Theo improve

However, the minutes I'm projecting for those 3 aren't drastically different from what they got this year.

Joey & Morrow are what's doing it. And they're significantly better players than those 2. Wojo has shown he'll plays the linueps necessary to get his best players the most time.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Pakuni on April 24, 2018, 02:34:38 PM
That's pretty good for "off the top of my head"!

The players were off the top of my head. The minutes, I had to look up.
That help?
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: mug644 on April 24, 2018, 02:35:30 PM
Honest question, when is the last time a Marquette freshman who played less minutes than a sophomore/junior at the same position then came back as a sophomore and then took minutes from that older player and surpassed them in minutes?

I know we like to believe that freshmen like Cain and John are going to go through such big jumps that they will pass upperclassmen like Anim and Heldt, but I honestly don't think it happens that often.

Steve Novak? Played behind Todd Townsend as a freshman, then started nearly every game as a sophomore.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Its DJOver on April 24, 2018, 02:36:48 PM
Honest question, when is the last time a Marquette freshman who played less minutes than a sophomore/junior at the same position then came back as a sophomore and then took minutes from that older player and surpassed them in minutes?

I know we like to believe that freshmen like Cain and John are going to go through such big jumps that they will pass upperclassmen like Anim and Heldt, but I honestly don't think it happens that often.

10-11 Otule averaged 17.6 to just 9 for Davante.  Otule then stayed at 17 for the next three years, while Davante jumped to 19, 21 and 26.   They technically graduated together, even though Chris was on the team for 6 years, compared to the normal 4 for Davante.  Doesn't exactly fit, but it's close.

I see Jamal, Sacar, and Greg all getting about the same number of minutes overall, with Wojo riding whoever's hot.  Same with Matt and Theo. 
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Jockey on April 24, 2018, 04:20:07 PM
On the one hand, I think it is silly for us to guess minutes next year considering we have no say in the matter, nor do we know what guys are doing in the off-season to try to get more minutes on the floor.


On the other hand, this is an excellent topic here. It is the perfect topic for off-season speculation. We have an abundance of riches (finally) next year and it's fun to speculate and try to fit the pieces in place.

Of interest to me are the minutes at guard. Howard is very prone to foul trouble when attempting to play 'D', so I don't see him reaching 30 minutes per game even though his talent warrants it. Elliott and JC won't cover all other minutes at guard, so who gets them? Does Sacar or Sam get some time there? I think Sam could be a solid option at '2' against certain teams.

Wonder what others think about spare minutes at SG'.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Nukem2 on April 24, 2018, 04:23:04 PM
On the one hand, I think it is silly for us to guess minutes next year considering we have no say in the matter, nor do we know what guys are doing in the off-season to try to get more minutes on the floor.


On the other hand, this is an excellent topic here. It is the perfect topic for off-season speculation. We have an abundance of riches (finally) next year and it's fun to speculate and try to fit the pieces in place.

Of interest to me are the minutes at guard. Howard is very prone to foul trouble when attempting to play 'D', so I don't see him reaching 30 minutes per game even though his talent warrants it. Elliott and JC won't cover all other minutes at guard, so who gets them? Does Sacar or Sam get some time there? I think Sam could be a solid option at '2' against certain teams.

Wonder what others think about spare minutes at SG'.
. Howard averaged 31.5 mpg this past season.......
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: MU82 on April 24, 2018, 04:24:21 PM
On the one hand, I think it is silly for us to guess minutes next year considering we have no say in the matter, nor do we know what guys are doing in the off-season to try to get more minutes on the floor.


On the other hand, this is an excellent topic here. It is the perfect topic for off-season speculation. We have an abundance of riches (finally) next year and it's fun to speculate and try to fit the pieces in place.

Of interest to me are the minutes at guard. Howard is very prone to foul trouble when attempting to play 'D', so I don't see him reaching 30 minutes per game even though his talent warrants it. Elliott and JC won't cover all other minutes at guard, so who gets them? Does Sacar or Sam get some time there? I think Sam could be a solid option at '2' against certain teams.

Wonder what others think about spare minutes at SG'.

As a couple other Scoopers said, 2 and 3 are largely interchangeable positions. Wojo will have the luxury to mix and match depending upon the opponent. He can choose to match what they're putting out there, or he can create mismatches and make the opponent react. And he can do both of those things numerous times in any game.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Goose on April 24, 2018, 04:37:22 PM
TAMU

Great call on Cain. I was thinking the same thing. He would benefit a great deal.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Jockey on April 24, 2018, 05:13:12 PM
. Howard averaged 31.5 mpg this past season.......

True, but we had few other options - very shallow team, especially at guard. He had to play a lot of minutes with 3 or 4 fouls for us to have a chance.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on April 24, 2018, 07:25:43 PM
Honest question, when is the last time a Marquette freshman who played less minutes than a sophomore/junior at the same position then came back as a sophomore and then took minutes from that older player and surpassed them in minutes?

I know we like to believe that freshmen like Cain and John are going to go through such big jumps that they will pass upperclassmen like Anim and Heldt, but I honestly don't think it happens that often.

As a sophomore, Heldt started and played 20+ mpg down the stretch after racking up DNPs behind junior Fischer as a frosh. That wasn't an obvious decision to make that switch but it worked. Making time for Morrow & Joey will likely be an obvious decision.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Lennys Tap on April 24, 2018, 07:48:52 PM
I think by conference play, in a normal game, we'll go 10/11 deep, with the bottom 2/3 getting ~5 mpg. In blowouts, with foul trouble, or if nothing seem to be working, minutes will be spread out more (duh). In big games and down the stretch near tourney time, the rotation will tighten to 8/9 players. Here's how I see those scenarios playing out.

Base/normal case

1: JC 28, Elliott 12
2: M2N 28, Elliott 6, Cain 6
3: Hauser the Elder 20, Cain 12, Anim 4, BB 4
4: Hauser the Younger 24, Hauser the Elder 8, Morrow 8
5: Morrow 20, Theo 10, Heldt 8 (may start for tip), Hauser the Younger 2

That's 28 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 26 for Joey, 18 for GE/Cain, 10 for Theo, 8 for Heldt, 8 combined for Anim/Bailey

With minutes spread due to foul trouble/blowout/nothing working

1: JC 24, Elliott 12, M2N 4
2: M2N 20, Elliott 6, Cain 6, Anim 4, Bailey 4
3: Hauser the Elder 20, Cain 12, Anim 4, Bailey 4
4: Hauser the Younger 22, Hauser the Elder 4, Morrow 8, Theo 3, Eke 3
5: Morrow 16, Theo 11, Heldt 8, Eke 5

That's 24 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 22 for Joey, 18 for GE/Cain, 14 for Theo, 8 for Heldt, 16 combined for Anim/Bailey, Eke 8

Tightened rotation in big games/March

1: JC 32, Elliott 8
2: M2N 32, Elliott 4, Cain 4
3: Hauser the Elder 26, , Cain 10, Hauser the Younger 4
4: Hauser the Younger 26, Hauser the Elder 6, Morrow 8
5: Morrow 24, Theo 10, Heldt 6

That's 32 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 30 for Joey, 14 for Cain, 12 for GE, 10 for Theo, 6 for Heldt

Lineup on floor in crunch time

JC, M2N, Sam, Joey, Ed (best 5 players)

Lineup to defend a large lead down the stretch

JC, Greg, Anim, Morrow, Theo (height, athleticism, strength, 5 best defenders)

Lots of interesting takes in this thread, but this one nails it.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: brewcity77 on April 24, 2018, 10:27:29 PM
Howard averaged 31.5 mpg this past season.......

2015-16 Minutes
Haanif Cheatham: 29.5
Duane Wilson: 28.5
Luke Fischer: 28.2

2016-17 Minutes
Haanif Cheatham: 25.4
Duane Wilson: 16.4
Luke Fischer: 24.0

Those were our top three players in terms of returning minutes. All three lost minutes as the team got deeper with the addition of Rowsey, Howard, Hauser, and Reinhardt. Significant minutes. Last year we went 8 deep if you include Theo as part of the rotation. Next year we likely go 10 deep. Established players will play fewer minutes, and it will be for the good of the team.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: ChitownSpaceForRent on April 24, 2018, 11:13:04 PM
2015-16 Minutes
Haanif Cheatham: 29.5
Duane Wilson: 28.5
Luke Fischer: 28.2

2016-17 Minutes
Haanif Cheatham: 25.4
Duane Wilson: 16.4
Luke Fischer: 24.0

Those were our top three players in terms of returning minutes. All three lost minutes as the team got deeper with the addition of Rowsey, Howard, Hauser, and Reinhardt. Significant minutes. Last year we went 8 deep if you include Theo as part of the rotation. Next year we likely go 10 deep. Established players will play fewer minutes, and it will be for the good of the team.

Yea, but Howard, Rowsey, Hauser, Markus and Reinhardt were significantly better players than Haanif and Duane (Excluding Luke because of position). I'd be pretty surprised if a healthy Sam and Markus play less than 30 minutes come conference play.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: brewcity77 on April 24, 2018, 11:47:42 PM
Yea, but Howard, Rowsey, Hauser, Markus and Reinhardt were significantly better players than Haanif and Duane (Excluding Luke because of position). I'd be pretty surprised if a healthy Sam and Markus play less than 30 minutes come conference play.

Haani still played starter minutes. I think it will be situational, but if we have games well in hand, I think the starters minutes get trimmed a bit. And I don't think it's just about quality of player, but the advantage of having guys be fresh.

My projected starters right now and the guys I would expect to get the most minutes at each position are Chartouny, Howard, Sam, Morrow, and Heldt. But situationally, I think Elliott, Anim, Cain, Joey, and John could get 25-30 minutes on any given night. I think any of those guys could have a SOTG type performance.

This year's roster should be Wojo's best, top to bottom, but there are legit players coming off the bench. On a fairly regular basis, Wojo will have some tough decisions when it comes to minutes, and I think after that starting five, there are a number of guys that will make it really tough to not play them.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: MUMountin on April 25, 2018, 12:08:19 AM
My projected starters right now and the guys I would expect to get the most minutes at each position are Chartouny, Howard, Sam, Morrow, and Heldt. But situationally, I think Elliott, Anim, Cain, Joey, and John could get 25-30 minutes on any given night. I think any of those guys could have a SOTG type performance.

I agree with this.  I expect the first three guys to average around 30mpg, the second two 25mpg.  But, based on fouls, game situations, hot hands, injuries, etc, I think you’ll see games where any of the second group can grab more than 20 mpg. 

I do agree that it seems a redshirt would be beneficial, and I’d say either Bailey, Elliott, or Cain make the most sense now.  Tough to imagine Bailey doing it, so I’d think it would be one of the two Michiganders.  Hope they pay attention to what Nova has done (five of their top six guys this year having used a RS year of some form or other), and realize what it can mean for them personally and the team.  We’d certainly miss some aspects each brings this year, but I think Elliott’s impact could largely be absorbed by Sacar while Bailey could do a lot of what Cain offers.  They both played admirably this year pressed into service at times against much stronger and more mature and polished players, but both could benefit from a year of development without as much pressure.  Hope they consider it.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on April 25, 2018, 12:44:40 AM
The Scoop Special.  One one hand, we celebrate a full and balanced roster for the first time in six seasons. On the other, we can't help but speculate on redshirts and transfers.

Do people remember just a few short weeks ago when we had three starters playing out of position, all active players running on fumes, Scoopers melting down on every foul fearing bench time, and six roster members physically banged up or already under the knife (both Hausers, Ike, Markus, Greg, Jamal)?

How about this?  Wojo keeps running a full roster out there that actually amps up the pressure on defense, can defend the PAR, locks up the paint, gives starters a rest while providing quality minutes, exploits match-ups rather than gets exploited, and doesn't Vichy the rim? And if some one is playing with one hand or on one hip, can fully rest or redshirt?

"Celebrate the temporary"
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: MU82 on April 25, 2018, 07:20:41 AM
The Scoop Special.  One one hand, we celebrate a full and balanced roster for the first time in six seasons. On the other, we can't help but speculate on redshirts and transfers.

Do people remember just a few short weeks ago when we had three starters playing out of position, all active players running on fumes, Scoopers melting down on every foul fearing bench time, and six roster members physically banged up or already under the knife (both Hausers, Ike, Markus, Greg, Jamal)?

How about this?  Wojo keeps running a full roster out there that actually amps up the pressure on defense, can defend the PAR, locks up the paint, gives starters a rest while providing quality minutes, exploits match-ups rather than gets exploited, and doesn't Vichy the rim? And if some is playing with one hand or n one hip, can fully rest or redshirt?

"Celebrate the temporary"

I generally agree with this. Well stated.

I will be very impressed in Wojo's debating skills if he can convince Cain to redshirt, because I'm guessing Cain sees himself as a top-7 or top-8 player on our roster.

Comparing his potential redshirt situation to those of Sacar and Eke is laughable - one was coming off a freshman season in which he didn't contribute a lick because he wasn't good enough, the other was injured.

And even most of the Nova players ... they were redshirted before they became valuable contributors. Were any of them asked to redshirt after they just averaged 18 mpg over the final 12 games, 20 mpg over the final 7 games, and shot nearly 50% from distance on the season?

TAMU and I agree on 96% of stuff. Although I certainly understand some of the potential benefits of Cain redshirting, we disagree on this.

I would love to be a fly on the wall when Wojo says, "I know you were pretty valuable for us last season, especially down the stretch, but we want you to sit out this season."
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on April 25, 2018, 07:52:01 AM
The Sacar redshirt was a one-off. He was young for his class by a year, much like Markus. He needed a year to get himself on track with his class physically and work on his jumper.

Villanova's redshirts were injury-related (DD, Booth), academics-related (Spellman), or freshman year weight related (Bridges). Cain would have fell into the Bridges category last year, but he already played a nice role and I suspect will put on weight this off-season while refining other parts of his game. He's ready for prime time, don't see him sitting.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: 1SE on April 25, 2018, 08:07:53 AM
I think it's very likely that by January 1, 2019 one of Sacar/Bailey/Cain will have transferred. I'd say the smart money is on Sacar, but if that is the case, hopefully that becomes apparent before the year starts so he doesn't burn any eligibility.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on April 25, 2018, 08:10:51 AM
I think it's very likely that by January 1, 2019 one of Sacar/Bailey/Cain will have transferred. I'd say the smart money is on Sacar, but if that is the case, hopefully that becomes apparent before the year starts so he doesn't burn any eligibility.

I'd say Sacar is the least likely. He already used a redshirt year, and he'll probably graduate in May '19, leaving open the immediately eligible grad transfer option at the end of the season. A mid-season transfer for him would make little to no sense, and he seems to have a good head on his shoulders with a good support system that would strongly advise against.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: 1SE on April 25, 2018, 08:19:14 AM
I'd say Sacar is the least likely. He already used a redshirt year, and he'll probably graduate in May '19, leaving open the immediately eligible grad transfer option at the end of the season. A mid-season transfer for him would make little to no sense, and he seems to have a good head on his shoulders with a good support system that would strongly advise against.

I agree midseason transfer for Sacar is unlikely - if he goes my guess it is before he sees the court. Put this way, JC, M2N and Sam are going to each see 30 minutes at the 1, 2 and 3. Sam played 4 last year out of necessity, other than a few situational instances, I don't see him playing any 4 this year when we have two great 4s (Joey and Ed) and two serviceable 5s (Theo and Heldt) - plus a little wild card in Ike. That leaves 30 guard minutes for Bailey, Cain, Elliot and Sacar - can't see any of them being happy with <10 mpg but it will have to happen with one of them. As the "freshman" Bailey seems most likely to be o-k with that, but I would imagine the guy wants to see the court after two years off.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: 1SE on April 25, 2018, 08:20:45 AM
I agree midseason transfer for Sacar is unlikely - if he goes my guess it is before he sees the court. Put this way, JC, M2N and Sam are going to each see 30 minutes at the 1, 2 and 3. Sam played 4 last year out of necessity, other than a few situational instances, I don't see him playing any 4 this year when we have two great 4s (Joey and Ed) and two serviceable 5s (Theo and Heldt) - plus a little wild card in Ike. That leaves 30 guard minutes for Bailey, Cain, Elliot and Sacar - can't see any of them being happy with <10 mpg but it will have to happen with one of them. As the "freshman" Bailey seems most likely to be o-k with that, but I would imagine the guy wants to see the court after two years off.

*One caveat, if JC isn't the savior, then maybe that frees enough minutes to keep everyone happy.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: mug644 on April 25, 2018, 08:45:20 AM
*One caveat, if JC isn't the savior, then maybe that frees enough minutes to keep everyone happy.

Wait a sec...if JC isn't the savior, that undermines a whole lot of thinking a MU. And the Big East in general, never mind the entire Church.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: brewcity77 on April 25, 2018, 09:10:27 AM
Sacar transferring makes no sense. If he leaves before the season, he has to sit out and play one year. If he leaves midseason, he loses his second semester junior year and first semester senior year, whereas if he stated he could grad transfer and be eligible to play sooner than if he leaves early.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on April 25, 2018, 09:12:41 AM
Sacar transferring makes no sense. If he leaves before the season, he has to sit out and play one year. If he leaves midseason, he loses his second semester junior year and first semester senior year, whereas if he stated he could grad transfer and be eligible to play sooner than if he leaves early.

Precisely
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: WarriorDad on April 25, 2018, 09:40:48 AM
I think by conference play, in a normal game, we'll go 10/11 deep, with the bottom 2/3 getting ~5 mpg. In blowouts, with foul trouble, or if nothing seem to be working, minutes will be spread out more (duh). In big games and down the stretch near tourney time, the rotation will tighten to 8/9 players. Here's how I see those scenarios playing out.

Base/normal case

1: JC 28, Elliott 12
2: M2N 28, Elliott 6, Cain 6
3: Hauser the Elder 20, Cain 12, Anim 4, BB 4
4: Hauser the Younger 24, Hauser the Elder 8, Morrow 8
5: Morrow 20, Theo 10, Heldt 8 (may start for tip), Hauser the Younger 2

That's 28 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 26 for Joey, 18 for GE/Cain, 10 for Theo, 8 for Heldt, 8 combined for Anim/Bailey

With minutes spread due to foul trouble/blowout/nothing working

1: JC 24, Elliott 12, M2N 4
2: M2N 20, Elliott 6, Cain 6, Anim 4, Bailey 4
3: Hauser the Elder 20, Cain 12, Anim 4, Bailey 4
4: Hauser the Younger 22, Hauser the Elder 4, Morrow 8, Theo 3, Eke 3
5: Morrow 16, Theo 11, Heldt 8, Eke 5

That's 24 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 22 for Joey, 18 for GE/Cain, 14 for Theo, 8 for Heldt, 16 combined for Anim/Bailey, Eke 8

Tightened rotation in big games/March

1: JC 32, Elliott 8
2: M2N 32, Elliott 4, Cain 4
3: Hauser the Elder 26, , Cain 10, Hauser the Younger 4
4: Hauser the Younger 26, Hauser the Elder 6, Morrow 8
5: Morrow 24, Theo 10, Heldt 6

That's 32 for JC, M2N, Sam, Morrow, 30 for Joey, 14 for Cain, 12 for GE, 10 for Theo, 6 for Heldt

Lineup on floor in crunch time

JC, M2N, Sam, Joey, Ed (best 5 players)

Lineup to defend a large lead down the stretch

JC, Greg, Anim, Morrow, Theo (height, athleticism, strength, 5 best defenders)

If Anim only receives 4 minutes, he will be leaving and we must be very good not to need his services.  I'm guessing Anim is more 10 to 15 guy due to his experience alone.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: MU82 on April 25, 2018, 10:42:00 AM
As long as Markus, Sam, JC, Morrow and Joey are happy and healthy, and McEwen actually arrives (and stays) on campus, everything else is gravy.

The rest of 'em are role players, some quite minor role players.

I know it's the offseason, and we have to debate something, but if Sacar or Eke or Elliott or even Cain transfer and/or pout, it is not going to ruin the 2018-19 and 2019-20 Warriors seasons.

That's kind of cold, but IMHO it's true.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on April 25, 2018, 11:23:53 AM
As long as Markus, Sam, JC, Morrow and Joey are happy and healthy, and McEwen actually arrives (and stays) on campus, everything else is gravy.

The rest of 'em are role players, some quite minor role players.

I know it's the offseason, and we have to debate something, but if Sacar or Eke or Elliott or even Cain transfer and/or pout, it is not going to ruin the 2018-19 and 2019-20 Warriors seasons.

That's kind of cold, but IMHO it's true.

Truth.

And honestly, it is a super refreshing problem to have.  Too many players worthy of minutes is fantastic.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: brewcity77 on April 25, 2018, 11:49:08 AM
If Anim only receives 4 minutes, he will be leaving and we must be very good not to need his services.  I'm guessing Anim is more 10 to 15 guy due to his experience alone.

But again, if Sacar is averaging 4 minutes and leaves, he loses eligibility. I see no circumstance Sacar leaves unless he deliberately wants to hurt the team. I know you aren't suggesting this, but I don't see any way that (1) Sacar goes from 27 minutes to less than 10 or (2) that he transfers at any point before he has a degree in hand.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Almost2MU on April 25, 2018, 06:20:08 PM
Impossible to do a projection of a full roster with this much talent and keep everyone happy. The reality is someone in the role player group will be unhappy and likely transfer. That's just college basketball nowadays. Sacar grad transfer seems to be the easiest to predict/accept but Ill put my money on him holding off Greg/Jamal and one of them being on the way out after the upcoming season. Fortunately Wojo has already prepared for this by bringing in Koby and we'll be able to take it in stride.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: 1SE on April 26, 2018, 04:07:11 AM
But again, if Sacar is averaging 4 minutes and leaves, he loses eligibility. I see no circumstance Sacar leaves unless he deliberately wants to hurt the team. I know you aren't suggesting this, but I don't see any way that (1) Sacar goes from 27 minutes to less than 10 or (2) that he transfers at any point before he has a degree in hand.

Sacar played those minutes this year because Sam was playing the "4" and Cain was our only other "3". Unless both Morrow and Joey are complete duds, it's hard to see Sam playing anything other than situational minutes at the 4, which means he'll eat 30+ at the 3 leaving Sacar to battle with Cain, Bailey (and Elliot) for the scraps at the 2 and 3.

I just don't see how one of them doesn't move on - it will really depend on if/how Cain develops over the summer and how ready-to-go Bailey is. Even if Bailey is willing to accept a more limited role this year, the log-jam will persist for two more years - if he doesn't displace Junior Sacar will he really be able to displace Senior Sacar? Tough to see him waiting two years for major minutes.

It's a cut throat business, but hopefully if there IS writing on the wall by October, Wojo conveys that directly to the interested party so he can decide to transfer before burning any eligibility.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: brewcity77 on April 26, 2018, 07:30:45 AM
I just don't see how one of them doesn't move on - it will really depend on if/how Cain develops over the summer and how ready-to-go Bailey is. Even if Bailey is willing to accept a more limited role this year, the log-jam will persist for two more years - if he doesn't displace Junior Sacar will he really be able to displace Senior Sacar? Tough to see him waiting two years for major minutes.

I'm not sure you understand my argument. Sacar took a redshirt. Here are his transfer options:

Transfer now: Sacar would have to sit a year in residence. Because he already sat his redshirt year, he loses his entire junior year and is only eligible to play one.

Transfer at semester: Sacar would play first semester (6-10 games), sit out a year, then play the last 20-22 games at a new school. He would likely get less than a full season over the final two years of his college career.

Transfer after the season: Sacar could play his entire junior year, graduate, then play his entire senior year. Even if he plays 1 mpg all year, this is the only scenario in which he's eligible both years.

Now two things. First, there is a ton of backup quarterback syndrome going on. Sacar averaged 27 mpg last year. The idea that new guys will come in and force him to single digit minutes is crazy to me. Will he see a decline? Yes. But into the teens, not the single digits.

Second, Sacar improved a ton last season. Over the last 15 games he averaged 10 ppg while improving his two worst shooting categories -- he shot 66.7% from the line and 38.9% from three. He was also our best defender. He is a legit high major starter with two years to play. Maybe it won't all be here, but he's a good player and getting better. Not sure why everyone wants to replace him so quickly.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: SaveOD238 on April 26, 2018, 07:33:55 AM
Everyone is talking about Sam only playing the 3 position, but I'm not convinced that Sam has the lateral quickness to guard some opposing 3s.  Offensively we might see Sam playing more 3, but on defense, he'll have to be paired with someone quicker who can guard on the perimeter.  Maybe that's Ed or Joey and the 3-4 swap is easy.  Otherwise it will be Sacar, Jamal, Greg, or Brendan at which point Sam will be the 4 on offense anyway.

Or maybe my impression of Sam is clouded because we only got to see slow, injured Sam for the last month of the season.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: 1SE on April 26, 2018, 07:42:24 AM
I'm not sure you understand my argument. Sacar took a redshirt. Here are his transfer options:

Transfer now: Sacar would have to sit a year in residence. Because he already sat his redshirt year, he loses his entire junior year and is only eligible to play one.

Transfer at semester: Sacar would play first semester (6-10 games), sit out a year, then play the last 20-22 games at a new school. He would likely get less than a full season over the final two years of his college career.

Transfer after the season: Sacar could play his entire junior year, graduate, then play his entire senior year. Even if he plays 1 mpg all year, this is the only scenario in which he's eligible both years.

Now two things. First, there is a ton of backup quarterback syndrome going on. Sacar averaged 27 mpg last year. The idea that new guys will come in and force him to single digit minutes is crazy to me. Will he see a decline? Yes. But into the teens, not the single digits.

Second, Sacar improved a ton last season. Over the last 15 games he averaged 10 ppg while improving his two worst shooting categories -- he shot 66.7% from the line and 38.9% from three. He was also our best defender. He is a legit high major starter with two years to play. Maybe it won't all be here, but he's a good player and getting better. Not sure why everyone wants to replace him so quickly.

I guess I didn't realize that if Sacar transfers before the season starts he only has 1 year of eligibility left - this is because he took a redshirt? I agree then that it doesn't make any sense at all for him to transfer - even if he has a reduced role this year.

IMO then the best case scenario is then that Sacar is encouraged to grad transfer and Bailey is encouraged to take a smaller role this year with the promise of a big uptick in minutes next year.

Of course the reality includes all sorts of things we don't know/can't foresee, but what else can we do on an offseason speculation thread.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: GGGG on April 26, 2018, 07:47:18 AM
I guess I didn't realize that if Sacar transfers before the season starts he only has 1 year of eligibility left - this is because he took a redshirt?


Yes.  You have five years to complete four years of eligibility unless you receive a waiver of some sort.  Those waivers are rare without injury.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: 1SE on April 26, 2018, 07:47:33 AM
Everyone is talking about Sam only playing the 3 position, but I'm not convinced that Sam has the lateral quickness to guard some opposing 3s.  Offensively we might see Sam playing more 3, but on defense, he'll have to be paired with someone quicker who can guard on the perimeter.  Maybe that's Ed or Joey and the 3-4 swap is easy.  Otherwise it will be Sacar, Jamal, Greg, or Brendan at which point Sam will be the 4 on offense anyway.

Or maybe my impression of Sam is clouded because we only got to see slow, injured Sam for the last month of the season.

I kind of agree which is why I'm so intrigued that everyone else has Sam as most likely to make the NBA. If he can't guard BE 3s, how can he defend in the NBA? (FWIW I think he probably CAN guard BE 3s (especially if the rest of the team is upgraded in terms of D, but I am skeptical of his lateral quickness at the next level - Sam's a smart, but not overly athletic, defender - that can make you serviceable enough on D in the NCAA but I don't think it meets the bar in the NBA).
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: 1SE on April 26, 2018, 07:48:50 AM

Yes.  You have five years to complete four years of eligibility unless you receive a waiver of some sort.  Those waivers are rare without injury.

So he transfers before the season, puts on a walking boot and takes a medical RS, and then still has 2 years of eligibility left?
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: GGGG on April 26, 2018, 07:52:23 AM
I kind of agree which is why I'm so intrigued that everyone else has Sam as most likely to make the NBA. If he can't guard BE 3s, how can he defend in the NBA? (FWIW I think he probably CAN guard BE 3s (especially if the rest of the team is upgraded in terms of D, but I am skeptical of his lateral quickness at the next level - Sam's a smart, but not overly athletic, defender - that can make you serviceable enough on D in the NCAA but I don't think it meets the bar in the NBA).


Because he can score.  Yeah he would have trouble guarding one-on-one, but he's not a terrible defender by any means. 

Would he be a superstar in the NBA?  No.  Can he be a rotation guy?  Yes - if his offensive game continues to evolve.  I'm not saying it's for sure, but I can see his path to get there.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Galway Eagle on April 26, 2018, 07:53:44 AM
I guess I didn't realize that if Sacar transfers before the season starts he only has 1 year of eligibility left - this is because he took a redshirt? I agree then that it doesn't make any sense at all for him to transfer - even if he has a reduced role this year.

IMO then the best case scenario is then that Sacar is encouraged to grad transfer and Bailey is encouraged to take a smaller role this year with the promise of a big uptick in minutes next year.

Of course the reality includes all sorts of things we don't know/can't foresee, but what else can we do on an offseason speculation thread.

Best case is bailey redshirts. Would be a complete waste of a year for him to be out of shape and rusty because he wants to play bad. That'd likely leave enough minutes everywhere else to make people happy. Then next year see Sacar grad transfer.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Its DJOver on April 26, 2018, 08:26:37 AM
A couple points.

We have four players coming off injuries, if any of those recoveries take longer and prevent someone from starting the season healthy that's more minutes for other players.

We have depth right now, we have no idea what possible injuries can happen.  With the depth that we have, if there were to be an injury like Greg had last year, where you could play through it, but not as effectively Wojo will be much more likely to shut them down and go for a medical redshirt. That opens up minutes for other players.

People are penciling both Markus and Sam in for 30 minutes because they played 30+ last year.  While they will certainly have some games where they play 30+, I don't think they will average that.  Last year I would guess that our big three had 80% of the shots under 4 minutes,  if our offense is more balanced this year, which it should be, I could easily see Wojo putting out a defensive unit that doesn't include either Sam or Markus.  Give me a JC, Sacar/Greg, Jamal, Ed, and Matt as our best defensive line-up to hold onto a lead.

Also, Winning cures all.  If an underclassman is getting single digit minutes on a team that wins 25+ games, it is easier to sell them the fact that they just aren't there yet because of the talent around them, but that the program can continue to win in the future with them in the starting line-up.  This is why I could see Brendan, Jamal or Greg taking a smaller role next year, with the promise of a larger role in the years to come.

Finally, suggesting that a player will transfer at the semester next year when it is currently April, is foolish.  We have no idea what is going through these kids heads, and we have no idea what Wojo is telling them about their future minutes and roles.  Some players know that they don't have a shot at the NBA and are just happy being a role player,  that's all they're asked to be and that's all they are.  Suggesting that role players will transfer in 8-9 months is ridiculous.

I know both the odds, and recent history suggest that someone will transfer between now and this time next year, but it is way to early to have any idea who that will be, if anyone at all.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on April 26, 2018, 09:03:42 AM

Because he can score.  Yeah he would have trouble guarding one-on-one, but he's not a terrible defender by any means. 

Would he be a superstar in the NBA?  No.  Can he be a rotation guy?  Yes - if his offensive game continues to evolve.  I'm not saying it's for sure, but I can see his path to get there.

He can shoot like Novak from deep (not as good - Novak a top 10 all-timer ridiculous) and all other aspects of his game are more well-rounded, especially his defense. Novak had a decade-long career based on shooting alone, I see Sam playing at least couple years in the league. Hell, Jason Kapono had a 9 year career. Sam's better than him.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Floorslapper on April 26, 2018, 09:43:11 AM
Best case is bailey redshirts. Would be a complete waste of a year for him to be out of shape and rusty because he wants to play bad. That'd likely leave enough minutes everywhere else to make people happy. Then next year see Sacar grad transfer.

I agree with this analysis.

Though Sacar could evolve into one of our Top 5 players by his ultimate 5th year in the program.  I like his potential.

Perhaps at that point, if Sacar chooses to NOT grad transfer, and writing is on wall for Cain or  Elliott that their minutes might be in the 15-20 range as Juniors, depending on where they are at in their physical/strength development, maybe you could sell a redshirt to one of them..

Good "problems" to have, and a testament to the recruiting job done by this staff.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on April 26, 2018, 09:49:48 AM
1) I think people aren't realizing how much Sam's mobility was affected by the hip injury.  I rewatched some game action from each of the last two years and Sam was much more agile as a freshman.  I think a healthy Sam will be ok defending SF's.  His size and intelligence will help make up for his average quickness.

2) Sam will still play some 4 if Cain makes a big jump. Cain's athleticism can matchup with quicker wings and he can wreak havoc in zone and different trapping defenses. Ed and Joey will get some minutes at the 5, especially against smaller mid majors.  Jamal-Sam-Ed or Jamal-Sam-Joey are two frontline combos we will see at times.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: DJO's Jaw on April 26, 2018, 10:19:53 AM
My unscientific guess at minutes for next year:

1 - JC (30), Markus (10)
2 - Markus (20), GE (10), Anim (10)
3 - Anim (5), Cain (10), SH (25)
4 - Morrow (15), JH (15), Theo (5), SH (5)
5 - Heldt (20), Morrow (10), Theo (10)

JC - 30
Markus - 30
SH - 30
Morrow - 25
Heldt - 20
Anim - 15
JH - 15
Theo - 15
Cain - 10
GE - 10

Spot Minutes: BB, Ike

Im certainly not happy with what I came up with, and I'm sure there are goi to be some players next year that aren't happy either.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: mug644 on April 26, 2018, 10:21:48 AM
I agree with this analysis.

Though Sacar could evolve into one of our Top 5 players by his ultimate 5th year in the program.  I like his potential.

Perhaps at that point, if Sacar chooses to NOT grad transfer, and writing is on wall for Cain or  Elliott that their minutes might be in the 15-20 range as Juniors, depending on where they are at in their physical/strength development, maybe you could sell a redshirt to one of them..

Good "problems" to have, and a testament to the recruiting job done by this staff.

How often do guys redshirt (not medical, but just by choice) in the junior year? I suppose it happens, but I'm guessing that it's very very rare. And I would speculate unlikely for either Cain or Elliott. More likely, but still probably a slim chance, is that one (and I would guess it would be Cain if either) redshirts this coming year, as a sophomore.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: MU82 on April 26, 2018, 10:43:52 AM
I'm not sure you understand my argument. Sacar took a redshirt. Here are his transfer options:

Transfer now: Sacar would have to sit a year in residence. Because he already sat his redshirt year, he loses his entire junior year and is only eligible to play one.

Transfer at semester: Sacar would play first semester (6-10 games), sit out a year, then play the last 20-22 games at a new school. He would likely get less than a full season over the final two years of his college career.

Transfer after the season: Sacar could play his entire junior year, graduate, then play his entire senior year. Even if he plays 1 mpg all year, this is the only scenario in which he's eligible both years.

Now two things. First, there is a ton of backup quarterback syndrome going on. Sacar averaged 27 mpg last year. The idea that new guys will come in and force him to single digit minutes is crazy to me. Will he see a decline? Yes. But into the teens, not the single digits.

Second, Sacar improved a ton last season. Over the last 15 games he averaged 10 ppg while improving his two worst shooting categories -- he shot 66.7% from the line and 38.9% from three. He was also our best defender. He is a legit high major starter with two years to play. Maybe it won't all be here, but he's a good player and getting better. Not sure why everyone wants to replace him so quickly.

Thank you for spelling this out so thoroughly, brewski. Maybe now folks will stop the silly talk about Sacar transferring at the semester break.

I think many are projecting Sacar's minutes to go down dramatically because we want others to take such a forward leap that it happens. Despite all the talk about us needing defense, defense, defense, folks look at Sacar's shooting and say, "We've got to do better than that." I'm guilty of it, too, though I agree with you that his minutes won't go from 27 to 7.

A few other notes on recent comments by others ...

Sam is a good (not great) defender when healthy. He is willing, he works hard, he is smart and he is a better athlete than some give him credit for.

He actually has a better career 3pt pct than Novak did, and his career pct is higher than any of Novak's years except when Novak was a freshman. IIRC, the 3-pt line was closer then than it is now, too. And Sam is a much better all-around player. If he is healthy, and if his career trajectory continues, there is every reason to believe Sam can get an NBA paycheck at least as long as Novak did.

I continue to like our depth and continue to think the playing-time stuff will work itself out to the team's benefit. Very psyched for the next few seasons!
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Litehouse on April 26, 2018, 11:06:02 AM
I put these same numbers in the previous thread, but I took 5 min from Sacar and gave it to JC.

Markus - 30
Sam - 30
JC - 25
Ed - 20
Sacar - 15
Greg - 15
Cain - 15
Joey - 15
Matt - 15
Theo - 15
Bailey - 3
Ike - 2
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on April 26, 2018, 11:17:45 AM
My unscientific guess at minutes for next year:

1 - JC (30), Markus (10)
2 - Markus (20), GE (10), Anim (10)
3 - Anim (5), Cain (10), SH (25)
4 - Morrow (15), JH (15), Theo (5), SH (5)
5 - Heldt (20), Morrow (10), Theo (10)

JC - 30
Markus - 30
SH - 30
Morrow - 25
Heldt - 20
Anim - 15
JH - 15
Theo - 15
Cain - 10
GE - 10

Spot Minutes: BB, Ike

Im certainly not happy with what I came up with, and I'm sure there are goi to be some players next year that aren't happy either.

I think this is about right, though I'd probably take 5 minutes from Heldt and give it to Theo for 15 minutes in the post for each.  Take Theo's 5 minutes at PF and give it to Joey. 
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: fjm on April 26, 2018, 12:07:28 PM
Everyone here is so confident in our team that we are giving a former top 75 recruit 3 minutes or spot minutes?

I think BB will play quite a bit. I know some players will definitely not be happy with their minutes but winning cures a lot.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on April 26, 2018, 12:11:47 PM
Bailey might really surprise a lot of people on this board. Everyone is penciling him in for garbage minutes (myself included).....but when a former top 100 kid turns 21 I usually expect a little more out of him.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on April 26, 2018, 12:18:12 PM
Everyone here is so confident in our team that we are giving a former top 75 recruit 3 minutes or spot minutes?

I think BB will play quite a bit. I know some players will definitely not be happy with their minutes but winning cures a lot.

Well, there are a lot of proven players.  4 returning starters and 3 backups that averaged double figure minutes. Add a transfer and grad transfer that have starting experience.  That's 9 and we still have Joey and Brendan to account for.

So Sacar, Greg, Jamal, and Brendan are going to have a major competition for minutes.  Plausible reasons for each and everyone of them to play.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: brewcity77 on April 26, 2018, 01:56:07 PM
Bailey might really surprise a lot of people on this board. Everyone is penciling him in for garbage minutes (myself included).....but when a former top 100 kid turns 21 I usually expect a little more out of him.

I think the problem with this whole debate is this could literally be said about virtually the entire roster. It could be said about our best returning defender who averaged double digit scoring the last 15 games. It could be said about the freshman who showed flashes playing through a broken hand and will now get the "freshmen become sophomores" boost. Or the freshman with great length, athleticism, & raw ability that might just need a summer to put it all together (despite some suggesting he redshirt).

I could honestly see Anim, Elliott, Cain, or Bailey surprising people by getting 20+ mpg and 10+ ppg. None of them surprising us would surprise me.

You can literally make a case for 12 players getting minutes, even Eke. That's why these are probably the most unpredictable minutes predictions ever.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: lawdog77 on April 26, 2018, 02:27:51 PM
I put these same numbers in the previous thread, but I took 5 min from Sacar and gave it to JC.

Markus - 30
Sam - 30
JC - 25
Ed - 20
Sacar - 15
Greg - 15
Cain - 15
Joey - 15
Matt - 15
Theo - 15
Bailey - 3
Ike - 2
Subtract 10 from Matt, and put in to Ed/Bailey, and that is close to what I would guess. I don't see Matt getting consistent minutes. I think Theo starts and Ed moves over to cover the 5 ,
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Galway Eagle on April 26, 2018, 02:31:20 PM
Bailey might really surprise a lot of people on this board. Everyone is penciling him in for garbage minutes (myself included).....but when a former top 100 kid turns 21 I usually expect a little more out of him.

I agree with this but let's not pretend he's been sitting in a gym everyday. I mean I'd say the majority of us were working out more on a weekly basis than bailey these past two years.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: GGGG on April 26, 2018, 02:34:53 PM
Subtract 10 from Matt, and put in to Ed/Bailey, and that is close to what I would guess. I don't see Matt getting consistent minutes. I think Theo starts and Ed moves over to cover the 5 ,


I know people REALLY hope and REALLY wish that Theo is going to have this massive improvement and that he will take minutes from the clearly limited Matt Heldt...

...but IMO that's just wishful thinking.  A healthy Matt aint getting five minutes a game after growing from 5 to 13 to 21 in his first three years.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: lawdog77 on April 26, 2018, 02:38:00 PM
Not sure how accurate this is: Day-to-day life of a missionary
Understanding the day-to-day life of a missionary is key to knowing why an athlete-missionary isn't improving their game or enhancing their training.


Below is the daily schedule for all missionaries, straight from the LDS Church's official missionary handbook:

6:30 am - Arise, pray, exercise (30 minutes), and prepare for the day.
7:30 am - Breakfast.
8:00 am - Personal study: the Book of Mormon, other scriptures, missionary library, and Preach My Gospel (the missionary teaching manual).
9:00 am - Companion study: share what you have learned during personal study, prepare to teach, practice teaching, study chapters from Preach My Gospel, and confirm plans for the day.
10:00 am - Begin proselyting. You may take an hour for lunch and additional study, and an hour for dinner at times during the day that fit best with your proselyting time. Normally, dinner should be finished no later than 6:00 pm.
9:00 pm - Return to living quarters and plan the next day's activities (30 minutes). Write in your journal, prepare for bed, pray.
10:30 pm - Retire to bed.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: THRILLHO on April 26, 2018, 02:56:50 PM
Not sure how accurate this is: Day-to-day life of a missionary
Understanding the day-to-day life of a missionary is key to knowing why an athlete-missionary isn't improving their game or enhancing their training.


Below is the daily schedule for all missionaries, straight from the LDS Church's official missionary handbook:

6:30 am - Arise, pray, exercise (30 minutes), and prepare for the day.
...
10:30 pm - Retire to bed.
The only thing i like about that is the eight hours of sleep.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on April 26, 2018, 03:20:33 PM
Not sure how accurate this is: Day-to-day life of a missionary
Understanding the day-to-day life of a missionary is key to knowing why an athlete-missionary isn't improving their game or enhancing their training.


Below is the daily schedule for all missionaries, straight from the LDS Church's official missionary handbook:

6:30 am - Arise, pray, exercise (30 minutes), and prepare for the day.
7:30 am - Breakfast.
8:00 am - Personal study: the Book of Mormon, other scriptures, missionary library, and Preach My Gospel (the missionary teaching manual).
9:00 am - Companion study: share what you have learned during personal study, prepare to teach, practice teaching, study chapters from Preach My Gospel, and confirm plans for the day.
10:00 am - Begin proselyting. You may take an hour for lunch and additional study, and an hour for dinner at times during the day that fit best with your proselyting time. Normally, dinner should be finished no later than 6:00 pm.
9:00 pm - Return to living quarters and plan the next day's activities (30 minutes). Write in your journal, prepare for bed, pray.
10:30 pm - Retire to bed.

I worked at the University of Utah for a short time. Got to interact with a lot millenial LDS students. Despite the belief that all Momons are conservative and strict followers of the LDS faith, I learned it is a misconception. The LDS church is going through some of the same shifts Catholicism is with the younger generation taking a much more lax approach to a lot of the rules and doctrine. Missions are still common and are taken seriously, but most students I talked to did not have experiences like what you detailed above.

I have no idea what experience BB had. Its possible he followed the handbook to the letter of the law. My guess is that he found a good amount of time to work out and get some shots up. Obviously not the same as playing organized basketball I suspect there won't be that much rust to shake off.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: lawdog77 on April 26, 2018, 03:24:56 PM
too lazy to look---to where did BB go on his mission?
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Nukem2 on April 26, 2018, 03:28:23 PM
too lazy to look---to where did BB go on his mission?
Washington DC. 
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: lawdog77 on April 26, 2018, 03:32:46 PM
thanks.....Could be worse...could be better, too. A friend of mine had his mission to Portugal. He lasted about 2 months, then pretty much quit the church due to their no alcohol policy.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: PistolBrad on April 26, 2018, 04:32:46 PM
I remember seeing an interview with Stan Johnson where he stated he talks to Bailey every Monday and stated he has had rather favorable conditions for basketball throughout his mission.  The interview also stated he has gained another inch or two and added some good weight.
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: Galway Eagle on April 26, 2018, 04:52:55 PM
I remember seeing an interview with Stan Johnson where he stated he talks to Bailey every Monday and stated he has had rather favorable conditions for basketball throughout his mission.  The interview also stated he has gained another inch or two and added some good weight.

I remember this as well but unless his mission just happen to be all Major D1 Basketball prospects as well I doubt any of his mission competition was enough to keep him honest
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: GB Warrior on April 26, 2018, 06:53:36 PM
The only thing i like about that is the eight hours of sleep.

"Arise" sounds so much better than what I do every morning
Title: Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
Post by: GGGG on April 26, 2018, 06:56:09 PM
"Arise" sounds so much better than what I do every morning


Sometimes I wake up "arisen."