Future Expectations

[drbob]

I have been reading all the talk about next year's talent and how Wojo's butt is on the line if we don't dance in the round of 16. I hope i am wrong, but there seems to be overblown expectations for next year. Center will still not be a strength no matter who plays.No point guard that can measure up to Rowsey's play this year unless we get lucky from now till then !  If Howard plays the point, who is our BE quality 2 guard?  Sacar? has sure improved but no way has the shooting range of a star. Bailey, who knows? Morrow should be an upgrade at the 4 as far as defense and rebounding , yes.  The Hausers should provide offensive punch but if we play both at the same time what about footspeed and defense? Cain and Elliot both need to add strength  and greatly improve their ball handling skills to take the next step. We will have depth, but is it star quality depth? Not sure what to expect from Eke and Froling. In all ,I think a lot of  stars  have to align properly for us to be as good as most people think.

[skianth16]

We'll be very good and very deep next year if we get a PG. If we don't get a PG, we'll be good and very deep.

Sacar is fine at the 2. Not all shooting guards need to shoot like Markus. Sacar's defense keeps him on the floor, and he's developed into a good enough option on offense to keep defenses honest. Adding Joey and Morrow to the lineup gives us plenty of size, even if we choose to not play with a true 5 very often. Markus and Sam will still be studs, both probably in the preseason all conference talks.

Our freshmen have all improved a ton this year, and they all show good upside for next year. Minutes may be tough to come by, especially if we get a PG, but these guys will be solid role players. Any contributions from Ike, Harry, and Bailey will be icing on the cake.

We will dance next year. We'll be playing for a seed by the time March roles around. Hard to see any scenario that would change my view on that.

[TheTulsaWarrior]

College ball is about match ups and Marquette will have more options next season.  Add a playmaker veteran who can defend and watch out.  Amin, Elliot and Cain are quick and longer than Howard/Rowsey so perimeter defense should be improved.  One of the biggest problems this season was Marquette needed to score a lot because of the weak D.  By the end of conference play Howard was beat up -- he was not the player he was early on in the season.  Marquette had to rely on him too much.  Fewer minutes will keep Howard more effective throughout the season that's why a veteran transfer point guard is a must.

[Warriors88]

I would tend to agree that expectations for next year are way out of line.  I don't know what would give MU fans the confidence this team will be much better than what we saw this year.  We still have the same coach who seems incapable of devising a defense that can stop anyone.  And we still have the same players who so far have not been able to prove they can consistently defend anyone.  It's been a huge problem that will not go away, no matter how many 3 pointers Howard and Hauser make.

Right now the only upside I see is with Morrow.  In fact I would say the success of the team next year, and Wojo's job, is dependent on Morrow filling major deficiencies on both offense and defense.  The current roster cannot provide consistent scoring in the post.  If we can just get some semblance of an inside game from Morrow that will be huge.  And then I hope he can provide toughness and rebounding on the defensive end, something that is lacking big time.

Its hard to project what he current frosh will bring next year.  Based on what I saw this year I just don't expect major contributions from any of the three.  Maybe Elliott can make a big jump next year.  Not feeling it with the other two.  And really have no idea what Eke or Bailey bring.

Lets hope Big Ed can bring it next year.  Its that or another year of a second tier BE finish.

[Floorslapper]

I'm not very bullish on next year being this big jump in Wojo's tenure.  Suspect it will be more of the same...bubblelicious....and in the 5th to 7th place range in Big East, despite some teams losing critical pieces.

Speaking of losing critical pieces, look to the left and our SOTG tally.  Rowsey with 8.  You take him off of this season's team, and we were more like a 5-13 Big East team and overall probably a 15-17 team.

Hope we land a STUD grad transfer PG, but doubtful that even if we landed the biggest stud, he would not be able to replace Rowsey's production (and suspect his defensive improvement would not negate the deficiency in offensive production.)

[GGGG]

I would tend to agree that expectations for next year are way out of line.  I don't know what would give MU fans the confidence this team will be much better than what we saw this year.  We still have the same coach who seems incapable of devising a defense that can stop anyone.  And we still have the same players who so far have not been able to prove they can consistently defend anyone.  It's been a huge problem that will not go away, no matter how many 3 pointers Howard and Hauser make.

Right now the only upside I see is with Morrow.  In fact I would say the success of the team next year, and Wojo's job, is dependent on Morrow filling major deficiencies on both offense and defense.  The current roster cannot provide consistent scoring in the post.  If we can just get some semblance of an inside game from Morrow that will be huge.  And then I hope he can provide toughness and rebounding on the defensive end, something that is lacking big time.

Its hard to project what he current frosh will bring next year.  Based on what I saw this year I just don't expect major contributions from any of the three.  Maybe Elliott can make a big jump next year.  Not feeling it with the other two.  And really have no idea what Eke or Bailey bring.

Lets hope Big Ed can bring it next year.  Its that or another year of a second tier BE finish.

Well I don't think you can discount another year of experience for Sam, Markus, etc.  That matters.  And let's not forget that Joey Hauser is joining next year as well.

In 1991-92, Marquette had a class of great sophomores that ended up with no post-season.  In 1992-93, that group became juniors and added Rony Eford.  They made the NCAA.  The year after that, they were in the Sweet 16.

Teams improve with experience.

[frozena pizza]

I agree that we may be slightly better next year and the BE overall may soften a bit but I'm not holding my breath for a major breakthrough.  Losing Rowsey leaves a lot of points to replace even if he had limitations defensively.  Also, many freshmen improve as sophomores but just as many do not, at least materially.

[Daniel]

Until we learn to play defense, this team is going nowhere.  It really is that simple. Why will we make a monumental leap in defense ne t year?  Morrow?  Joey? 

This must be fixed. If it is, we will be very good.

[Its DJOver]

Until we learn to play defense, this team is going nowhere.  It really is that simple. Why will we make a monumental leap in defense ne t year?  Morrow?  Joey? 

This must be fixed. If it is, we will be very good.

Morrow more so than Joey, but also no AR, and Jamal and Greg hopefully putting on some weight will all help. Everyone being a year older will also help, not just in the increased strength, but in having more reps and knowing where to be on assignments, and rotations.  I'm not convinced that it will be enough, but if there's no improvement there will need to be a coaching change.

[GooooMarquette]

I have been reading all the talk about next year's talent and how Wojo's butt is on the line if we don't dance in the round of 16. I hope i am wrong, but there seems to be overblown expectations for next year. Center will still not be a strength no matter who plays.No point guard that can measure up to Rowsey's play this year unless we get lucky from now till then !  If Howard plays the point, who is our BE quality 2 guard?  Sacar? has sure improved but no way has the shooting range of a star. Bailey, who knows? Morrow should be an upgrade at the 4 as far as defense and rebounding , yes.  The Hausers should provide offensive punch but if we play both at the same time what about footspeed and defense? Cain and Elliot both need to add strength  and greatly improve their ball handling skills to take the next step. We will have depth, but is it star quality depth? Not sure what to expect from Eke and Froling. In all ,I think a lot of  stars  have to align properly for us to be as good as most people think.

A few comments:

"Center will not be a strength."  Very likely true.  That's because our strengths will primarily be in Markus and Sam.  And if Sacar keeps improving, he will become one of our strengths as well.  Regardless, even if Matt only shows limited improvement, he will very likely be better than this year.

"No point guard that can measure up to Rowsey's play this year."  Again, very likely true.  I hope we get a PG soon, but if we don't, there will be a drop-off.  Still, we haven't seen what GE can do without a cast on his thumb, and I fully expect Markus to work his butt off on ball handling drills.

"If Howard plays the point, who is our BE quality 2 guard?"  Greg Elliott.

"The Hausers should provide offensive punch but if we play both at the same time what about footspeed and defense?"  Sam has been slowed significantly by his hip injury.  I suspect he will improve considerably with the rumored surgery and rehab.

"Cain and Elliot both need to add strength and greatly improve their ball handling skills to take the next step."  Agreed on both counts.  But I will be SHOCKED if a summer in the weight room doesn't make a big difference.  As for ball handling, I share your concerns about Jamal, but believe Greg is better than what we have seen.

I know we don't always see year to year improvement in every player, but if even half of my expectations come to pass, we will be improved next season.  And that's without even factoring in Sam, Ed and Brendan. 

[murara1994]

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I'm not very bullish on next year being this big jump in Wojo's tenure.  Suspect it will be more of the same...bubblelicious....and in the 5th to 7th place range in Big East, despite some teams losing critical pieces.

Speaking of losing critical pieces, look to the left and our SOTG tally.  Rowsey with 8.  You take him off of this season's team, and we were more like a 5-13 Big East team and overall probably a 15-17 team.

Hope we land a STUD grad transfer PG, but doubtful that even if we landed the biggest stud, he would not be able to replace Rowsey's production (and suspect his defensive improvement would not negate the deficiency in offensive production.)

2 years ago, Fischy had 4 SOTG and Triple J had 3.  How were we going to replace their production?

Dudes get better.  Freshman become Sophomores.  Sophs become upperclassmen.  Circle of life, Simba.

[dw3dw3dw3]

I know we were a game away this year from top 3 based on tie-breakers, but a convincing top 3 finish with 12+ wins in Big East play is where my expectations are set for next year and a 4-6 seed.  I have a hard time figuring out how we get there though.  The PG situation is number one in my book. I think we still get in comfortably with Markus running the point for 25+ min a night (I'm assuming he's going to make a big jump with PG skills), but maybe just in the 7-10 range.  I think this is ultimately what happens.

Defense.. something has to change, MU needs to make a bold move in that department. A year older and one additional Big East body aren't going to get it done without some sort of philosophy/mentality/schematic change on that end. I'd be disappointed if we came back with the same staff. Maybe Judson is the fall guy, but whatever, bring a defensive guy in to install some system and an attitude that will make us all happy. 

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Points are easily replaced. If we land a PG that can score 8-10, Morrow repeats his Nebraska numbers, Sam's usage rate goes from 18% to 25-30%, any improvement from returning players, Joey's contributions, etc.

No we won't have three players capable of going off for 30 in any game. But we'll still have two and an improved supporting cast.

I have to see the final roster before I can set my expectations.  An improved defense is a must though.

[GooooMarquette]

No we won't have three players capable of going off for 30 in any game. But we'll still have two and an improved supporting cast.

Yep.  FWIW, here are the number of players on each BE team that had a 30+ point game this season:

Marquette: 3
Villanova: 2
Buter: 2
Seton Hall: 2
Creighton: 1
Xavier: 1
Georgetown: 1
St. John's: 1
DePaul: 1
Providence: 1

So yeah, as long as we improve in other areas, we would be in pretty good company with two guys capable of 30+ on any night.  Defense and rebounding are key.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Until we learn to play defense, this team is going nowhere.  It really is that simple. Why will we make a monumental leap in defense ne t year?  Morrow?  Joey? 

This must be fixed. If it is, we will be very good.

Because Andrew Rowsey is an elite offensive player and one of the two worst defensive players to ever play at Marquette. We will miss him on offense next season but his departure is addition by subtraction on the other end.

I believe Andrei provided some stats on when the midgets played together vs. when they played by themselves. The jump in our d rating was something like 20 points. The difference between a sub 200 defense and a top 75 defense.

Throw in a bunch more big bodies and years of development for the rest of the team and that should lead to a better defense.

[AZMarqfan]

Markus needs to improve in 2 areas this offseason--defense and ball-handling (especially against a press).  If he's running the point next year and he doesn't improve in those areas, we're in a lot of trouble.  It will help having only 1 5'10" no-defense shooter on the floor next year.  Sacar can defend the #2 and he is very effective taking it to the hole as a slasher.  Next year I'm looking for the same leap we saw from McNeal and Blue into their Junior seasons (similar profile...defensive whiz's that developed a great deal). 

Next year will be nice having plenty of big bodies that we don't need any one playing 30+ minutes.  I'd love to see Theo John seize the #4 spot.  He's shown glimpses of nice moves and physicality.  He could thrive playing the 4 with a solid #5 next to him.  Or when we go small, he becomes our #5. 

[skianth16]

Next year will be nice having plenty of big bodies that we don't need any one playing 30+ minutes.  I'd love to see Theo John seize the #4 spot.  He's shown glimpses of nice moves and physicality.  He could thrive playing the 4 with a solid #5 next to him.  Or when we go small, he becomes our #5.

I think right now the 4 spot is Morrow's for the taking. Seeing Ed and Theo on the floor together will be a welcome sight to MU fans. Two athletic bigs on one team?! We're going to get spoiled.

[warriorchick]

Luca Diener and Kent McIlvaine share both Big East Freshman of the Year and Player of the Year awards.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It's simple math why I think we will be better next season. Two years ago, there were threads just like this one where people said that we could never replace Henry Ellenson. My response was:

(Adding two top 75 recruits [Howard and Hauser] + a top grad transfer [Katin] + improvement from 7 returning players) > (Losing Henry Ellenson and Wally Ellenson)

Many didn't believe. The result was a 65 point increase in KenPom and an NCAA tournament berth.

I have similar feelings about next season

(A top 50 recruit [Joey] + a former top 100 recruit coming back from LDS mission [Bailey] + a traditional transfer who was top 30 [of all D1 players] in rebounding + a 3 star project coming off redshirt + improvement from 8 returning players) > (Losing Andrew Rowsey)

I could be wrong. Basketball isn't played on paper. We also don't know who might be leaving....but we also don't know who we might be adding. Both could change the outlook for next season.

It's not an apples to apples comparison. PG is definitely a more important position than PF. But I'm not as convinced as others that Markus won't be effective. There was very little about Rowsey last season that would have told me that he would turn into as effective of a distributor as he was this season. I don't expect Markus to make as big of a jump in the distribution department but I think enough of one  to be effective. I am more concerned about who will spell Markus for at least 5 minutes a game.

[jesmu84]

Because Andrew Rowsey is an elite offensive player and one of the two worst defensive players to ever play at Marquette. We will miss him on offense next season but his departure is addition by subtraction on the other end.

I believe Andrei provided some stats on when the midgets played together vs. when they played by themselves. The jump in our d rating was something like 20 points. The difference between a sub 200 defense and a top 75 defense.

Throw in a bunch more big bodies and years of development for the rest of the team and that should lead to a better defense.

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55485

[drbob]

I would feel better if at least one of our centers could score consistently in the 5 to 10 foot area around the basket.  Preferably with a little face-up jumper. It was so frustrating to see the ball go into the hole, only to be thrown back out. That would be the one area that would make Matt a much better asset to the team.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I would feel better if at least one of our centers could score consistently in the 5 to 10 foot area around the basket.  Preferably with a little face-up jumper. It was so frustrating to see the ball go into the hole, only to be thrown back out. That would be the one area that would make Matt a much better asset to the team.

What's funny is he is so efficient when he does score...and can convert from the line when he gets fouled. Gotta get the football pads out and beat Matt up all season

[WarriorDad]

I would tend to agree that expectations for next year are way out of line.  I don't know what would give MU fans the confidence this team will be much better than what we saw this year.  We still have the same coach who seems incapable of devising a defense that can stop anyone.  And we still have the same players who so far have not been able to prove they can consistently defend anyone.  It's been a huge problem that will not go away, no matter how many 3 pointers Howard and Hauser make.

Right now the only upside I see is with Morrow.  In fact I would say the success of the team next year, and Wojo's job, is dependent on Morrow filling major deficiencies on both offense and defense.  The current roster cannot provide consistent scoring in the post.  If we can just get some semblance of an inside game from Morrow that will be huge.  And then I hope he can provide toughness and rebounding on the defensive end, something that is lacking big time.

Its hard to project what he current frosh will bring next year.  Based on what I saw this year I just don't expect major contributions from any of the three.  Maybe Elliott can make a big jump next year.  Not feeling it with the other two.  And really have no idea what Eke or Bailey bring.

Lets hope Big Ed can bring it next year.  Its that or another year of a second tier BE finish.

Disagree.  Big East falls back to earth next season, huge departures with graduation.  MU the one team that loses only one player, granted a high powered offensive one at that.   We will be top 4 Big East next year, potentially top 2.  Those expectations are in line due to more depth, added size for defense and rebounding, Howard and the youngsters another year older.  Elliott will have his thumb repaired.  Anim's breakthru games will happen more often, Sam takes another step forward.

The last two years went exactly as I expected, and I expect next year to be a step up while also benefiting from the conference taking a step back. 22 to 24 wins.  NCAA 4 to 7 seed assuming no major injuries or transfers.

[connie]

Part of the expectations for next year are based upon (what I believe) is an under-performance by Wojo to this point.  I want him to succeed and the team to get better, but freely admit the price of my "wait until next year" is the expectation that next year really HAS to be better, and by a significant amount.