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Author Topic: Not Over Yet  (Read 14996 times)

79Warrior

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #100 on: February 14, 2018, 09:38:08 AM »
They had become a disappointment at that point they had too many loses even Al thought he would end up in the NIT. Had lost to unranked Depaul and Wichita State. I was about to go to MU and that team was followed down here every single game, Butch had already played for The PR Olympic team. MU didn't win 20 games during the season which was one of the standards back then and which people wrongly still bring up as a requirement around here. And of course that team was a really good team but they had a disappointing regular season.

Actually, 20 wins was huge back then because teams only played 25-26 games. There were no multi game November or December tourneys back then. Today 30 regular season games are the norm.

Goose

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #101 on: February 14, 2018, 09:55:49 AM »
79Warrior

Spot on. Winning twenty games now is not a major accomplishment, especially with 5-7 cupcakes on the schedule. Not winning twenty is disturbing, IMO.

skianth16

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #102 on: February 14, 2018, 09:57:05 AM »
According to TRANK, Marquette is favored in their last 4 games of the season.  According to Sagrin, Marquette is favored in 3/5 games, and one of the 2 games they are not currently favored to win (vs. Creighton) is a close to a pick em. 

So yes, Marquette is supposed to win vs. SJU, @Depaul, and @Gtown, and vs. Creighton is a coin flip. I am not just arbitrarily making stuff up.

Do you know how regularly that's updated? I'm guess we underperformed in some of our recent games, so would that be reflected in the current projections?

BM1090

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #103 on: February 14, 2018, 10:06:32 AM »
79Warrior

Spot on. Winning twenty games now is not a major accomplishment, especially with 5-7 cupcakes on the schedule. Not winning twenty is disturbing, IMO.

We could have easily won 20 if we scheduled an easier schedule. We won 20 two years ago. We won 19 last year. We won't get to 20 this year.

Our teams the past two years were FAR better than the 15-16 team that won 20. 20 wins is irrelevant without considering other factors.

Goose

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #104 on: February 14, 2018, 10:11:56 AM »
MUeagle

They are not a very good team this season, that is my opinion. Last year, they were decent and still struggled for a bid. Your idea of a good twenty win team and mine do not match up. Hopefully, next year is the magical year!!!

BM1090

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #105 on: February 14, 2018, 10:16:20 AM »
MUeagle

They are not a very good team this season, that is my opinion. Last year, they were decent and still struggled for a bid. Your idea of a good twenty win team and mine do not match up. Hopefully, next year is the magical year!!!

To be clear, I'm not saying we are good this year. I think that we'll find out if we're any good over the next couple of weeks. I'm just saying winning 20 games is irrelevant. Good teams can win less than 20 and bad teams can win 20 depending on the schedule.

Goose

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #106 on: February 14, 2018, 10:24:52 AM »
Eagle

"Good" teams win more the twenty.

skianth16

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #107 on: February 14, 2018, 10:41:04 AM »
To be clear, I'm not saying we are good this year. I think that we'll find out if we're any good over the next couple of weeks. I'm just saying winning 20 games is irrelevant. Good teams can win less than 20 and bad teams can win 20 depending on the schedule.

I don't think any good team wins less than 20. I also think it's hard to be bad and win 20. There are a lot of decent teams that win 18-22 games, though. The bubble seems to have been pretty soft in the last couple years, so there are teams making the tournament with 19, maybe even 18 wins, but I don't think I'd call those teams good. Similarly, there are teams winning 20+ games with 150+ SOS schedules, but I don't think I'd call them bad. If you find a way to win a bunch of games, you might be better than your resume would indicate. Those teams usually have a bad loss or two because they play so many awful teams, but losing a bad game doesn't make you a bad team, in my opinion.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #108 on: February 14, 2018, 10:50:52 AM »
Georgetown just won at Butler for their second straight win tying MU in the win column.
St John's has two straight wins and plays DePaul next, which means after tomorrow's game either St. John's will have won three straight games or DePaul will have won two straight games.
Marquette may not even finish as high as 7th in Big East.

Georgetown still plays X and @Nova.  They aren't winning more than 7 league games at most.  Context is important.

SJU would have to win out to get to 7 BE wins, which includes trips to Providence and Marquette and home games against Butler and Hall. 

Depaul still sucks.
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mu03eng

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #109 on: February 14, 2018, 10:57:07 AM »
Eagle

"Good" teams win more the twenty.

This is False
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BM1090

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #110 on: February 14, 2018, 10:58:38 AM »
Eagle

"Good" teams win more the twenty.

Agree to disagree. Syracuse won 19 two years ago and went to the final four. Plenty of teams that get 8 or 9 seeds (top 36) that win less than 20. Oregon State won 19 in 2016 and got a 7 seed.

mu03eng

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #111 on: February 14, 2018, 10:58:59 AM »
I don't think any good team wins less than 20. I also think it's hard to be bad and win 20. There are a lot of decent teams that win 18-22 games, though. The bubble seems to have been pretty soft in the last couple years, so there are teams making the tournament with 19, maybe even 18 wins, but I don't think I'd call those teams good. Similarly, there are teams winning 20+ games with 150+ SOS schedules, but I don't think I'd call them bad. If you find a way to win a bunch of games, you might be better than your resume would indicate. Those teams usually have a bad loss or two because they play so many awful teams, but losing a bad game doesn't make you a bad team, in my opinion.

Two years ago we had a team win 20 games and not even make the NIT. Wouldn't that be the definition of not good in spite of the 20 game metric?
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

Lennys Tap

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #112 on: February 14, 2018, 10:59:46 AM »
According to TRANK, Marquette is favored in their last 4 games of the season.  According to Sagrin, Marquette is favored in 3/5 games, and one of the 2 games they are not currently favored to win (vs. Creighton) is a close to a pick em. 

So yes, Marquette is supposed to win vs. SJU, @Depaul, and @Gtown, and vs. Creighton is a coin flip. I am not just arbitrarily making stuff up.

Lines based on Sagarin: Creighton is -8 at home, -1.5 in Milwaukee. MU is -4.5 vs St Johns at home, -2.5 at DePaul and -.5 at Georgetown. Given our recent struggles these lines may move against us by a point or two.

So in fairness I would say we're "supposed to" win one game (St John's) "supposed to" lose one game (@ Creighton) and the other 3 are toss ups.

5-0 is great, means we exceed expectations, 4-1 is good, we meet them, 3-2 is a slight disappointment, 2-3 a solid disappointment, 1-4 is near disaster, 0-5 is total disaster.

The season is in the balance. Go Warriors!

skianth16

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #113 on: February 14, 2018, 11:01:34 AM »
Two years ago we had a team win 20 games and not even make the NIT. Wouldn't that be the definition of not good in spite of the 20 game metric?

I think that team falls pretty squarely in the mediocre camp.

Goose

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #114 on: February 14, 2018, 11:12:07 AM »
Eagle

Please note I said "good" teams, not good teams. Teams that are not bubble teams, exceed twenty wins with ease on regular basis.

Newsdreams

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #115 on: February 14, 2018, 02:10:13 PM »
Actually, MU did win 20 in the regular season (our record was 20-7). Things looked grim when we stood at 16-6 and were finishing the season with 5 road games. We won the first 4 to get to 20-6 and led Michigan (who I think was #2 in the country) big at halftime when Al got the word that we were "in".

The '77 team was untypical for Al - his teams had been virtually unbeatable at home. Our arena record was 11-5 that year, but we were 9-2 on the road and 5-0 on neutral sites, so 14-2 away from Milwaukee.
Correct 20-7 my bad. We had a 3 game losing streak at home against DePaul, Detroit (15), Wichita State.
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bilsu

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #116 on: February 15, 2018, 09:34:38 AM »
Today 25 wins is the equivalent of Al's 20 wins. UCLA was winning the national championship with 30-0 perfect seasons.

willie warrior

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #117 on: February 15, 2018, 12:50:03 PM »
Georgetown still plays X and @Nova.  They aren't winning more than 7 league games at most.  Context is important.

SJU would have to win out to get to 7 BE wins, which includes trips to Providence and Marquette and home games against Butler and Hall. 

Depaul still sucks.
Love to hear your thoughts about Depaul sucking if they beat us. I thought same as you, that Depaul still sucks, but that gameis looking more and more like a toss up. I guess that is OK, a barn burner for the suckiest BEast team.
I thought you were dead. Willie lives rent free in Reekers mind.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #118 on: February 15, 2018, 12:52:20 PM »
Love to hear your thoughts about Depaul sucking if they beat us. I thought same as you, that Depaul still sucks, but that gameis looking more and more like a toss up. I guess that is OK, a barn burner for the suckiest BEast team.

What about that game is looking like a toss up?  Depaul is still terrible.  We played awful and still beat them by 18, and the game wasn't even that close. 

I am sure your response will be quite intelligible.
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

ATL MU Warrior

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #119 on: February 15, 2018, 12:53:46 PM »
What about that game is looking like a toss up?  Depaul is still terrible.  We played awful and still beat them by 18, and the game wasn't even that close. 

I am sure your response will be quite intelligible.
Some more of the Willie Whine?

An incredibly bad vintage

GGGG

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #120 on: February 15, 2018, 01:01:42 PM »
Some more of the Willie Whine?

An incredibly bad vintage


The equivalent of Mad Dog 20/20

tower912

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #121 on: February 15, 2018, 02:42:05 PM »
Whining Willie is a solid sobriquet.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Newsdreams

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #122 on: February 15, 2018, 03:15:32 PM »
Whining Willie is a solid sobriquet.
Meme tournament worthy?
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GooooMarquette

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Re: Not Over Yet
« Reply #123 on: February 15, 2018, 04:39:20 PM »
We got this.