End-of-November Bracketology

[BM1090]

Because why not? Marquette next 4 out. Wisconsin first 4 out. 6 Big East teams getting bids.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Not listed:

Georgetown
DePaul
SJU

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Interesting. I can't tell if this is based on what team's have done or how good he thinks teams really are. Cause if it's based on what team's have done, Arizona shouldn't be in with three wins against low majors and 3 losses, only 1 of which is against a for sure tournament team. But if it's based on where he thinks team's really are, I can't imagine Washington State or Missouri (minus Porter) being anywhere near the tournament by the end of the season.

[jficke13]

Interesting. I can't tell if this is based on what team's have done or how good he thinks teams really are. Cause if it's based on what team's have done, Arizona shouldn't be in with three wins against low majors and 3 losses, only 1 of which is against a for sure tournament team. But if it's based on where he thinks team's really are, I can't imagine Washington State or Missouri (minus Porter) being anywhere near the tournament by the end of the season.

This early in the season? Probably a little bit of both. Not enough data for people who started on the outside looking in to bump some teams that started on the inside and are trending out. So what have you done for me lately gets a little seasoning from what will you do for me in the next few weeks.

[MuMark]

If it was based on what teams have done Wisconsin wouldn't be ahead of us.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

This early in the season? Probably a little bit of both. Not enough data for people who started on the outside looking in to bump some teams that started on the inside and are trending out. So what have you done for me lately gets a little seasoning from what will you do for me in the next few weeks.

Exactly. Some love for the early season darlings.  But no point in removing a team like Arizona from the fray as they'll obviously be there are seasons end. 

All in all, seems pretty fair on Marquette at the moment.  Go 3-0 in the next 10 days and we'll be comfortably in the field at the moment.

[tower912]

If MU goes 3-0 during the next week, I am confident that a week from now, in the equally meaningless bracketology, MU will be in. 

[robmufan]

If it was based on what teams have done Wisconsin wouldn't be ahead of us.

Losses to then 22 Baylor, 15 xavier, 23 UCLA, 18 @UVA...sure they have more losses, but its not like they are losing to garbage teams.

And thats why as most have pointed, they are looking at what has been done, and what is predicted for the rest of the season.

[forgetful]

Pretty sure that his is based on absolutely nothing.  Most of his bracketologies this year look as if an 8 year old with no knowledge of basketball put them together.

[MUBBau]

Georgetown is 5-0, hard to believe they aren't a 2-seed.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Next 3 games are huge for our tourney hopes

Almost gotta go 2/3, preferably without dropping one at home

Georgia scares me with thier length (they start 6'4" / 6'4" / 6'8" / 6'8" / 6'8") and they have a full week to prep for us. Then we have a quick turnaround to a good Vermont team that took UK to the wire in Lexington. And we'll have to shoot lights out to beat UW at their place. Really too bad we won't have Froling for any of these games.

The way I see it, go 3/3 (20% chance) and an 8-10 BEast record likely gets us in the tourney (and could potentially have us ranked by end of 2017).

Go 2/3 (35% chance), and a 9-9 BEast record likely gets us in (win a conf tourney game and we're a lock)

Go 1/3 (30% chance), and we'll need 10-8 BEast record with a signature road win and no bad home losses (Georgetown/DePaul)

Go 0/3 (15% chance), and we'll need to go 12-6 in conference with no bad home losses


Hope M2N, Sam, and Drewski are all locked in and "on" at the same time over the next 10 days!

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Sorry for being dense, but what does M2N stand for?

[The Lens]

What this tells me is beating LSU means nothing.

[tower912]

Sorry for being dense, but what does M2N stand for?

Ask your buddy, JB.  (Markus 2 NBA)

[GoldenDieners32]

Georgetown is 5-0, hard to believe they aren't a 2-seed.

Basically Lunardi's logic

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Why is Michigan in ahead of us?  They're best win was over VCU by 8.  We won by 11.  And we beat LSU while Michigan lost to LSU.  Michigan lost to UNC by 15, which compares to our loss to Wichita St.  Huh?

This bracketology no matta.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Why is Michigan in ahead of us?  They're best win was over VCU by 8.  We won by 11.  And we beat LSU while Michigan lost to LSU.  Michigan lost to UNC by 15, which compares to our loss to Wichita St.  Huh?

This bracketology no matta.

Agreed. That one struck me as odd as well. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Next 3 games are huge for our tourney hopes

The way I see it, go 3/3 (20% chance) and an 8-10 BEast record likely gets us in the tourney (and could potentially have us ranked by end of 2017).

Go 2/3 (35% chance), and a 9-9 BEast record likely gets us in (win a conf tourney game and we're a lock)

Go 1/3 (30% chance), and we'll need 10-8 BEast record with a signature road win and no bad home losses (Georgetown/DePaul)

Go 0/3 (15% chance), and we'll need to go 12-6 in conference with no bad home losses

I agree with this analysis for the most part, but not 100% sure 9-9 gets it done with a 9-3 non-conference record.  18-12 going into the BE tournament.  We'd be squarely on the bubble.  But this is probably the most realistic result. 

Finishing out the non-con with 5 more wins is going to give us so much more room for error.  Its totally possible, but we're going to need to figure out how to play some D over the next 40 hours.

[Galway Eagle]

I agree with this analysis for the most part, but not 100% sure 9-9 gets it done with a 9-3 non-conference record.  18-12 going into the BE tournament.  We'd be squarely on the bubble.  But this is probably the most realistic result. 

Finishing out the non-con with 5 more wins is going to give us so much more room for error.  Its totally possible, but we're going to need to figure out how to play some D over the next 40 hours.

I think it would if our non con sos continued to be the highest of all high majors. If it fell for some reason then it'd be bubblelicious

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think it would if our non con sos continued to be the highest of all high majors. If it fell for some reason then it'd be bubblelicious

What source has our NC SOS that high?

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

What source has our NC SOS that high?

RPI Forecast projects MU to have a SOS of 23.  18-12 would give MU a projected RPI of 50.7, if the model holds.

[MUBigDance]

18-12 with BET 0-1,1-1, or 2-1  I don't think we get in.
I know who we beat and if we're 9-9 vs 10-8 in the BE makes a difference.

But in general 20-13 doesn't smell good.

So if we're 9-3 NC  and 10-8 BE then 1-1 BET, I would feel good about it.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

18-12 with BET 0-1,1-1, or 2-1  I don't think we get in.
I know who we beat and if we're 9-9 vs 10-8 in the BE makes a difference.

But in general 20-13 doesn't smell good.

So if we're 9-3 NC  and 10-8 BE then 1-1 BET, I would feel good about it.

20 wins will be plenty this season....19 would probably work too. 10 Big East wins and we're stone cold locks unless we drop 3/5 renaming non-con games. 

9-3 non con and 10-8 BE and we'll be somewhere in the 7-9 seed range, comfortably in...IMO.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

RPI Forecast projects MU to have a SOS of 23.  18-12 would give MU a projected RPI of 50.7, if the model holds.

yeah...thats what I was seeing.  His "highest SOS of all high majors" comment had me wondering where he saw that info.

[BM1090]

19 wins would be plenty enough. 19-11 going into the BET puts us at a RPI in the 30s according to rpiforecast.

[brewcity77]

19 would make us a lock, but thanks to beating VCU I do think 18 will be enough to get us in. Our SOS and RPI would be adequate for a First Four game. Likely need a 9-9 Big East record regardless. I don't think we end up in if we have a losing conference record unless we have 20+ overall wins (which means at least 2 in NYC).