MLB 2018 Season

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Yeah.  It really is.  Thank you for proving my point.  The "they know him" logic is completely flawed and ignores many many other factors that play into these decisions.  You guys have brought up some and there are still more.

I'm sure all the stuff the cubs know about Arrieta makes your "all kinds of dumb" claim completely different though.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cubs-might-be-a-problem-for-jake-arrieta/

[Vander Blue Man Group]

$21M for an above average pitcher whose "similar pitchers" (according to Baseball Reference) are Josh Johnson, Garret Cole, Tanner Roark, Sonny Gray and Julio Teheran.

Last season: 10-12, 3.86 ERA (26th in MLB), 1.163 WHIP (16th in MLB).

Only had 200 IP once in career. Postseason disaster.

What an incredible bargain!

Plus, my sources tell me he's a big PED guy (of course, my sources are wades).

Having said all that ... sure, if I were Theo, I'd have spent $126 of Ricketts' money to sign him, too.

Darvish has 19.0 fWAR in 832.1 IP since debut in 2012.  In that span, Darvish's 3.7 WAR per 162 innings is seventh best in MLB behind Kershaw, Sale, Kluber, Scherzer, Strasburg and Price.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I think you're forgetting buck likes to play the contranian to the extreme.

Sure.  It would help if his logic was, well, logical.

[MU82]

Darvish has 19.0 fWAR in 832.1 IP since debut in 2012.  In that span, Darvish's 3.7 WAR per 162 innings is seventh best in MLB behind Kershaw, Sale, Kluber, Scherzer, Strasburg and Price.

Okey dokey.

Also oft-injured, can't pitch 200 innings and sucks in the postseason.

Again, a bargain!

And again, I'd have signed him, too.

[🏀]

Sure.  It would help if his logic was, well, logical.

It's good too see the bad side of the deal too. Regardless of logic.

If Darvish is a solid 2 for 3 seasons, l'll be delighted. Darvish also has no trade protection, which should be noted, huge part of this deal.

[wadesworld]

$21M for an above average pitcher whose "similar pitchers" (according to Baseball Reference) are Josh Johnson, Garret Cole, Tanner Roark, Sonny Gray and Julio Teheran.

Last season: 10-12, 3.86 ERA (26th in MLB), 1.163 WHIP (16th in MLB).

Only had 200 IP once in career. Postseason disaster.

What an incredible bargain!

Plus, my sources tell me he's a big PED guy (of course, my sources are wades).

Having said all that ... sure, if I were Theo, I'd have spent $126 of Ricketts' money to sign him, too.

Hmm, I'm going to have to change my Scoop password if someone from my username was telling you Yu is on PEDs.  Would I be surprised if he was?  Not in the least bit.  When Dee Gordon was suspended for PED use that was the last time I will ever be surprised to find out any professional athlete uses PEDs.  But I can't say Yu being a clear cut PED user like the 3 Cubs I've said undoubtedly have used PEDs has ever crossed my mind.

Then again, the 20-some year old who threw 100 MPH routinely, was constantly facing nagging injuries, and came onto the scene at the height of anabolic steroid use when 95% of MLB players were using PEDs had a baby face and threw this pitch called a curveball that nobody else ever threw, so of course he wasn't using PEDs.  And the guy who went from hitting 8 home runs to 33 and then all the way up to 66 home runs in a season couldn't speak English, so how could he get steroids?  And the pitcher who was absolutely horrendous until his youthful 28 year old season and in one offseason became one of the best pitchers in baseball just needed Jesus Bosio (who the Cubs just fired) to resurrect his career from the dead.

Yeah.  It really is.  Thank you for proving my point.  The "they know him" logic is completely flawed and ignores many many other factors that play into these decisions.  You guys have brought up some and there are still more.

I'm sure all the stuff the cubs know about Arrieta makes your "all kinds of dumb" claim completely different though.

You're forgetting something.  You're arguing with Cubs fans.  The Cubs have never made a bad move in the history of the franchise.  They're the greatest baseball franchise ever created.  If they sign someone whose former team no longer wanted them, it's a great bargain move!  If they let someone walk that another team signs up, that new team got screwed, the Cubs know exactly what that person was and he totally isn't worth it!

[buckchuckler]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cubs-might-be-a-problem-for-jake-arrieta/

Even that points out that Scott Boras is a likely reason.   They Cubs made several overtures to resign Arrieta.  With a reported 4-110 offer as recently as January.  Doesn't seem like they know he is a time bomb.  Seems like they definitely had him on their list of targets but found a deal they like better. 

The narrative of the Cubs know him and don't want him back has been sung all offseason.  It is ridiculous.  You don't offer a guy 27 mil a season (reported by Nightengale btw) if you don't want him. They got a deal with a similar pitcher for significantly less.  That doesn't necessarily speak to which guy they preferred, but it says a lot about which deal they preferred.

[buckchuckler]

Sure.  It would help if his logic was, well, logical.

Wow.  You still.missed it huh.  I wasn't trying to be logical.   I was applying the same story you made with Arrieta to Darvish.  That's why it made no sense.

That line of thinking is full of holes. 

By the way,  what is this mystery information the Cubs have on him?  The only things I can think it would be are if they know wades was right and he is on roids and is a time bomb that way, or he is a complete douche and ruins the clubhouse.

My guess is that he was simply looking for too much money.

[Dish]

The signing in the short term is fine. My issue is if you're the Cubs, you're rolling out in 2019 almost $50 mil in total to Lester and Darvish. We saw the decline of Lester start last year and we'll see how Darvish does. The Quintana trade was so key to the Cubs future, as their system has next to nothing in starters coming soon. The Cubs are committed to these 5 starters moving forward. They have financial flexibility to sign a position player next winter, but have limited themselves in the FA pitching market for 2019.

The back end of the Darvish deal is concerning, years 5&6, with the no trade clause is gross, even at a relatively good $21 mil per.

[🏀]

The signing in the short term is fine. My issue is if you're the Cubs, you're rolling out in 2019 almost $50 mil in total to Lester and Darvish. We saw the decline of Lester start last year and we'll see how Darvish does. The Quintana trade was so key to the Cubs future, as their system has next to nothing in starters coming soon. The Cubs are committed to these 5 starters moving forward. They have financial flexibility to sign a position player next winter, but have limited themselves in the FA pitching market for 2019.

The back end of the Darvish deal is concerning, years 5&6, with the no trade clause is gross, even at a relatively good $21 mil per.

Darvish has no trade protection.

[TallTitan34]

Before finalizing with Yu, the Cubs offered Arrieta the same 6/$126 that Yu got, however, he turned it down.

Two years ago, Jake also turned down the cubs 4yr/$88mil offer than is actually a higher AAV than what Yu just got. 

[TallTitan34]

The signing in the short term is fine. My issue is if you're the Cubs, you're rolling out in 2019 almost $50 mil in total to Lester and Darvish. We saw the decline of Lester start last year and we'll see how Darvish does. The Quintana trade was so key to the Cubs future, as their system has next to nothing in starters coming soon. The Cubs are committed to these 5 starters moving forward. They have financial flexibility to sign a position player next winter, but have limited themselves in the FA pitching market for 2019.

The back end of the Darvish deal is concerning, years 5&6, with the no trade clause is gross, even at a relatively good $21 mil per.

The Cubs have the TV money coming in 2019 as well.  Not saying the bottom line doesn't matter but they should have some extra money to work with.  By all accounts they are trying to stay under the lux tax this year so they can exceed it with next season's big free agent class.

[buckchuckler]

Before finalizing with Yu, the Cubs offered Arrieta the same 6/$126 that Yu got, however, he turned it down.

Two years ago, Jake also turned down the cubs 4yr/$88mil offer than is actually a higher AAV than what Yu just got.

Saw that report.  Weird.

[TallTitan34]

Saw that report.  Weird.

I think Boras is promising that he will get him a larger deal.   Same for all of his clients.

[🏀]

Boras is overplaying his hand on both Arrieta and JDM, hoping this really blows up in his face when Arrieta ends up on a rebuilding Phillies roster for something like $95m/5yr.

[buckchuckler]

Boras is overplaying his hand on both Arrieta and JDM, hoping this really blows up in his face when Arrieta ends up on a rebuilding Phillies roster for something like $95m/5yr.

And Hosmer, and Moose and Holland...

[buckchuckler]

I think Boras is promising that he will get him a larger deal.   Same for all of his clients.

Not weird he turned it down,  weird that the Cubs offered.   VB indicated the Cubs knew better and didn't have interest.

[MerrittsMustache]

According to Jerry Crasnick, Darvish has an opt-out clause after 2 seasons. If he pitches well, he could hit the open market by 2020. If he pitches poorly, the Cubs will have another ugly, long-term contract on the books. When you're in the midst of your championship window, you have to take calculated risks. I have no issue with the signing.

[🏀]

According to Jerry Crasnick, Darvish has an opt-out clause after 2 seasons. If he pitches well, he could hit the open market by 2020. If he pitches poorly, the Cubs will have another ugly, long-term contract on the books. When you're in the midst of your championship window, you have to take calculated risks. I have no issue with the signing.

Darvish, $21m AAV through 2023
Cueto, $21.6m AAV through 2022
Zimmerman, $22m AAV through 2021

Include the no trade protection and the opt out after two years, this deal is good.

[Pakuni]

Speaking of pitchers with Chicago connections:

Esteban Loaiza pitched for 14 years in the major leagues. He's now facing way more time than that in the California Penal League.
Multiple news outlets are reporting that Loaiza was arrested in San Diego County on Friday for transporting roughly 44 pounds of heroin and cocaine.

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2018/02/12/former-mlb-pitcher-esteban-loaiza-arrested-with-44-pounds-of-heroin-and-cocaine/

[TallTitan34]

1) Yu Darvish: signed through 2023, opt-out after 2019
2) Jon Lester: signed through 2020, team option for 2021
3) Jose Quintana: signed through 2018, team options for 2019 & 2020
4) Kyle Hendricks: arb-eligible 2019 & 2020, free agent after 2020
5) Tyler Chatwood: signed through 2020

6) Brandon Morrow: signed through 2019, team option for 2020
7) Steve Cishek: signed through 2019
8) Pedro Strop: signed through 2018, team option for 2019
9) Brian Duensing: signed through 2019
10) Mike Montgomery: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, free agent after 2021
11) Justin Wilson: signed through 2018
12) Carl Edwards Jr.: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, free agent after 2022
13) Justin Grimm: arb-eligible 2019, free agent after 2019

1) Anthony Rizzo: signed through 2019, team options for 2020 and 2021
2) Javier Baez: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, free agent after 2021
3) Addison Russell: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, free agent after 2022
4) Kris Bryant: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, free agent after 2021
5) Ben Zobrist: signed through 2019
6) Tommy La Stella: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, free agent after 2020
7) Kyle Schwarber: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, free agent after 2021
8) Albert Almora Jr.: not arb-eligible until 2020, free agent after 2023
9) Jason Heyward: signed through 2023, opt-out after 2018
10) Ian Happ: not arb-eligible until 2021, free agent after 2024
11) Willson Contreras: not arb-eligible until 2020, free agent after 2023
12) Chris Gimenez: on minor-league deal, likely a free agent after 2018

[Dish]

Speaking of pitchers with Chicago connections:

Esteban Loaiza pitched for 14 years in the major leagues. He's now facing way more time than that in the California Penal League.
Multiple news outlets are reporting that Loaiza was arrested in San Diego County on Friday for transporting roughly 44 pounds of heroin and cocaine.

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2018/02/12/former-mlb-pitcher-esteban-loaiza-arrested-with-44-pounds-of-heroin-and-cocaine/

I just met him at SoxFest a couple weeks ago. I did not make any financial transactions with him for the record.

[buckchuckler]

1) Yu Darvish: signed through 2023, opt-out after 2019
2) Jon Lester: signed through 2020, team option for 2021
3) Jose Quintana: signed through 2018, team options for 2019 & 2020
4) Kyle Hendricks: arb-eligible 2019 & 2020, free agent after 2020
5) Tyler Chatwood: signed through 2020

6) Brandon Morrow: signed through 2019, team option for 2020
7) Steve Cishek: signed through 2019
8) Pedro Strop: signed through 2018, team option for 2019
9) Brian Duensing: signed through 2019
10) Mike Montgomery: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, free agent after 2021
11) Justin Wilson: signed through 2018
12) Carl Edwards Jr.: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, free agent after 2022
13) Justin Grimm: arb-eligible 2019, free agent after 2019

1) Anthony Rizzo: signed through 2019, team options for 2020 and 2021
2) Javier Baez: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, free agent after 2021
3) Addison Russell: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, free agent after 2022
4) Kris Bryant: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, free agent after 2021
5) Ben Zobrist: signed through 2019
6) Tommy La Stella: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, free agent after 2020
7) Kyle Schwarber: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, free agent after 2021
8) Albert Almora Jr.: not arb-eligible until 2020, free agent after 2023
9) Jason Heyward: signed through 2023, opt-out after 2018
10) Ian Happ: not arb-eligible until 2021, free agent after 2024
11) Willson Contreras: not arb-eligible until 2020, free agent after 2023
12) Chris Gimenez: on minor-league deal, likely a free agent after 2018

Hahaha, you work for roster resource?

[TallTitan34]

Hahaha, you work for roster resource?

I know how to cut and paste from other websites.

The Cubs 25 man roster this year is pretty much set.  Even next year, Justin Wilson is the only player not under contract.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Okey dokey.

Also oft-injured, can't pitch 200 innings and sucks in the postseason.

Again, a bargain!

And again, I'd have signed him, too.

I was merely pointing out there are other valid comparisons than the ones you pointed out.  Here are some from Baseball Prospectus:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/53155/yu-darvish