MLB 2018 Season

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Ok.  Seems at least open to interpretation though.

Of course the Cards example is ridiculous.  To think that how the Cubs treat Arrieta has a significant impact on what guys like Mozeliak, Sabean, Rizzo, Cashman or Stearns think of him seems like a stretch.

I just don't get this whole thing.  I have never heard this story ever in another free agency.  But now that the Cubs aren't going to bring back the guy that has had likely their best stretch of seasons, well since I've been alive, the story is all of a sudden, the Cubs are too smart to bring him back, they know something!  But that thought process has never applied to anyone else.  To me, that seems like more arrogance. 

But whatever the case, the Cubs have addressed their biggest need and replaced Arrieta with a similar pitcher (at least in the regular season).  They seem poised to be the favorite in the Central, and one of the favorites in the NL. 

Will the Brewers get one of the other pitchers?  Odorizzi and Archer seem to be targets, though Archer seems very unlikely.  Cobb or Lynn? 

What are the Cards doing?  It seems like an open secret that they have money to spend and holes to fill with free agents that look like fits (Holland, Moose, Hosmer).  Will they do anything?  Camps starting today!

It's just another piece of information in the decision making process. I think it's more plausible than you in terms of having some impact and we can leave it at that.

I can see the Brewers signing a pitcher (Cobb or Lynn, as you mentioned) and trading for one. Salazar and Odorizzi seem to make sense. I don't see Archer as a possibility.

I kind of expect Holland to end up with the Cards at this point and they'll probably get a bargain.  Not sure about adding another bat. I'd love if they overpaid Hosmer but I've only read KC and SD are involved there. Not even sure who the market for Moose is right now.

[buckchuckler]

Yankees seem like an ideal for for Moose.  Haven't heard that they are actually interested in him, but they have kids penciled in at 2nd and 3rd, a veteran LH power bat would really make them scary.  Hitting 38 hrs in Kaufmann equates to roughly a million at Yankee stadium.  But the Royals aren't interested, so that's  probably why no one wants him.

[MU82]

1) Yu Darvish: signed through 2023, opt-out after 2019
2) Jon Lester: signed through 2020, team option for 2021
3) Jose Quintana: signed through 2018, team options for 2019 & 2020
4) Kyle Hendricks: arb-eligible 2019 & 2020, free agent after 2020
5) Tyler Chatwood: signed through 2020

6) Brandon Morrow: signed through 2019, team option for 2020
7) Steve Cishek: signed through 2019
8) Pedro Strop: signed through 2018, team option for 2019
9) Brian Duensing: signed through 2019
10) Mike Montgomery: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, free agent after 2021
11) Justin Wilson: signed through 2018
12) Carl Edwards Jr.: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, free agent after 2022
13) Justin Grimm: arb-eligible 2019, free agent after 2019

1) Anthony Rizzo: signed through 2019, team options for 2020 and 2021
2) Javier Baez: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, free agent after 2021
3) Addison Russell: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, free agent after 2022
4) Kris Bryant: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, free agent after 2021
5) Ben Zobrist: signed through 2019
6) Tommy La Stella: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, free agent after 2020
7) Kyle Schwarber: arb-eligible 2019, 2020, 2021, free agent after 2021
8) Albert Almora Jr.: not arb-eligible until 2020, free agent after 2023
9) Jason Heyward: signed through 2023, opt-out after 2018
10) Ian Happ: not arb-eligible until 2021, free agent after 2024
11) Willson Contreras: not arb-eligible until 2020, free agent after 2023
12) Chris Gimenez: on minor-league deal, likely a free agent after 2018

The only reason the Cubs shouldn't be legit contenders for several more years is the "stuff happens" reason.

Combine a couple injuries with a couple of players underperforming and a couple guys getting old fast (like Lester), and that happens even to good teams sometimes.

The Cubs have some trade-able pieces, too. I keep going back to "Schwarbs." Very expendable, and one would think an AL team might have interest if he stays healthy and is at least a little bit less of a disaster** than this past season.

(**There probably are advanced stats that would say he was the best hitter in baseball history in 2017.)

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Yankees seem like an ideal for for Moose.  Haven't heard that they are actually interested in him, but they have kids penciled in at 2nd and 3rd, a veteran LH power bat would really make them scary.  Hitting 38 hrs in Kaufmann equates to roughly a million at Yankee stadium.  But the Royals aren't interested, so that's  probably why no one wants him.

Couldn't help it, huh?  I don't blame you.

The only reason the Cubs shouldn't be legit contenders for several more years is the "stuff happens" reason.

Combine a couple injuries with a couple of players underperforming and a couple guys getting old fast (like Lester), and that happens even to good teams sometimes.

The Cubs have some trade-able pieces, too. I keep going back to "Schwarbs." Very expendable, and one would think an AL team might have interest if he stays healthy and is at least a little bit less of a disaster** than this past season.

(**There probably are advanced stats that would say he was the best hitter in baseball history in 2017.)

He actually was excellent offensively after returning from the minors (255/.338/.565 with a 131 wRC+).  It'll be interesting to see if his weight loss translates at all to any defensive improvement.

[wadesworld]

To whom was this referring?

Either way, fair enough you didn't directly call me those things.  I just wanted to show how you instantly react any time someone questions your precious Cubs.  Always right to insults.  You always play the same hand. 

Mike Girsch and John Mozeliak sitting in a room, with Girsch saying " let's sign Arrieta" and Mo saying, "hmmm Theo has a lack of interest.   The Cubs are the brightest franchise out there. Must be a bad idea.  I say no."

At least you acknowledge Boras has a role to play.  That is something I guess.

By the way, the verb "lack" means, according to dictionary.com, "to be without".
 

Nailed it.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Nailed it.

Steroids blah blah blah PEDs blah blah blah 

[muwarrior69]

New rules for 2018 to speed up the game.

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/02/20/587181780/rules-for-2018-aim-to-speed-up-how-long-it-takes-to-play-a-mlb-game

[GB Warrior]

The Brewers should make an offer for Archer before the Rays' drugs wear off. They're trading everyone with a multi million per year contract and less than 4 years of control, so they must think they're WAY off contention in the next couple. No sense carrying a 29 year old pitcher through that time...

[Vander Blue Man Group]

The Brewers should make an offer for Archer before the Rays' drugs wear off. They're trading everyone with a multi million per year contract and less than 4 years of control, so they must think they're WAY off contention in the next couple. No sense carrying a 29 year old pitcher through that time...

He's still controlled for 4 more years cheap.  They have no reason to trade him for anything less than an overpay.  I don't see it with what the Brewers can offer. 

[#UnleashSean]

Cubs Brewers. First game of the year. Leggo.

[RushmoreAcademy]

NL CENTRAL prediction: Cubs win it by 6 games. 

[WayOfTheWarrior]

NL CENTRAL prediction: Cubs win it by 6 games.

For me comes down to Cubs bullpen and Brewers starting rotation if/when they add an arm and Jimmy comes back. But yeah, no reason to not predict Cubs at this point with Brewers/Cards competing for WC spots. It'll be close though.

[dgies9156]

NL CENTRAL prediction: Cubs win it by 6 games.

No chance.

The Cardinals will surprise people. Pitchers play to their potential and they chase the Cubs all season -- maybe catch the small bears.

The Brewers are a big question mark at this point.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

No chance.

The Cardinals will surprise people. Pitchers play to their potential and they chase the Cubs all season -- maybe catch the small bears.

The Brewers are a big question mark at this point.

Disagree.

If the Cubs play to their potential and are healthy it won't be that close.

Of course it rarely works out that way and anything can happen. 

[MerrittsMustache]

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook...

Cubs: 93.5 wins, 7-1 WS odds, Div odds -240
Cardinals: 86.5 wins, 20-1 WS odds, Div odds 7-2
Brewers: 83.5 wins, 30-1 WS odds, Div odds 7-1

[Jockey]

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook...

Cubs: 93.5 wins, 7-1 WS odds, Div odds -240
Cardinals: 86.5 wins, 20-1 WS odds, Div odds 7-2
Brewers: 83.5 wins, 30-1 WS odds, Div odds 7-1

I think the Brewers may be a bit like the Royals where they consistently overachieved for a few years, but still can't see more than 85-88 wins if they stay healthy.

Hard to guess on St. Louis because youngsters like Reyes and Weaver may have a lot to do with their success (or lack of it).

[dgies9156]

Hard to guess on St. Louis because youngsters like Reyes and Weaver may have a lot to do with their success (or lack of it).

Agree, but I think they have solved their middle of the batting order problems.

The Cardinals' biggest problem appears to be their closer. If the Cardinals develop a legit closer this year, the small bears will look a lot smaller.

[RushmoreAcademy]

The Cubs won in 2016 because they were 1st or 2nd in nearly every pitching category.  Darvish, a full year of Quintana and a healthy Hendricks makes them potentially dominant in that category again.  It should be plenty to take the division.... but of course there are always injuries.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Agree, but I think they have solved their middle of the batting order problems.

The Cardinals' biggest problem appears to be their closer. If the Cardinals develop a legit closer this year, the small bears will look a lot smaller.

Maybe. Last year was Ozuna's best year by far. He's entering his prime and is a great acquisition but it's no sure thing he produces at that level.

Pham broke out last year for the first time at age 29. Is that sustainable?  He could be a prime regression candidate. DeJong has no track record - can be so it again?  There were also very high expectations for Diaz, Piscotty, and Grichuk and now they're gone.

Fowler will play at age 32 and hasn't been particularly durable. Carpenter will be 32 and Molina will be 35. All of these guys can be productive but at this point you can't assume they'll be better.

Obviously this exercise can be done with any team and the Cards'' offense should be fine but there are a lot of question marks to me.

I'm extremely surprised they haven't taken a run at Holland.

[RushmoreAcademy]

Really interesting article examining the bizarre free agent winter.
http://www.businessinsider.com/mlb-free-agency-drama-rift-2018-3

[WayOfTheWarrior]

Maybe. Last year was Ozuna's best year by far. He's entering his prime and is a great acquisition but it's no sure thing he produces at that level.

Pham broke out last year for the first time at age 29. Is that sustainable?  He could be a prime regression candidate. DeJong has no track record - can be so it again?  There were also very high expectations for Diaz, Piscotty, and Grichuk and now they're gone.

Fowler will play at age 32 and hasn't been particularly durable. Carpenter will be 32 and Molina will be 35. All of these guys can be productive but at this point you can't assume they'll be better.

Obviously this exercise can be done with any team and the Cards'' offense should be fine but there are a lot of question marks to me.

I'm extremely surprised they haven't taken a run at Holland.

You're forgetting the intangibles like the Devilbird blackmagic that they employ to stay in every race. Doesn't matter how many potential issues they have on paper, injuries, etc. They find ways to win. Last year obviously did not end favorably for the first time in a long time, but STL takes a lot of pride in everything they do. Many parallels to be drawn to the Packers IMO.

[dgies9156]

You're forgetting the intangibles like the Devilbird blackmagic.

I just love that Devilbird Blackmagic.

Boy does that make being a Cardinals fan fun!!!!!

[GB Warrior]

You're forgetting the intangibles like the Devilbird blackmagic that they employ to stay in every race. Doesn't matter how many potential issues they have on paper, injuries, etc. They find ways to win. Last year obviously did not end favorably for the first time in a long time, but STL takes a lot of pride in everything they do. Many parallels to be drawn to the Packers IMO.

Cardinals fans do make me appreciate how obnoxious we are as Packers fans.

[WayOfTheWarrior]

Cardinals fans do make me appreciate how obnoxious kind, loving, human beings we are as Packers fans.

FIFY

[Vander Blue Man Group]

FIFY

He was right the first time.