MLB 2018 Season

[MerrittsMustache]

Ok, so they replaced Arrieta with noone.  That is even worse.  Maybe they get Darvish or someone else, but they haven't yet. Lester is a year older and coming off a season where he didn't look like a TOR starter.   Their rotation is worse, currently, and without doubt.

Morrow may be lights out.  Cishek and co maybe better.  But Davis was perfect is save opportunities.  Bullpens are volatile.   The Cubs are taking some calculated risks without a proven closer, could be a great pen, could be good or ok, could be bad.  I know I would rather have Knebel.

The lineup issues are minor, but the leadoff spot is a question for sure.  Jay was pretty solid last year, and I guess Almora will be given every chance this year and will likely be just fine.  Zobrist may be fading into the end of his career, Heyward isn't a prize.   But as you stated, they will score runs.  They have 2 legit MVP caliber hitters in their order which fixes a lot of problems.  Maybe this is the year Schwarber hits 40 HRs...and .250.  But they haven't gotten any better offensively, as you pointed out may e they didn't need to,  but the Brewers and Cards have improved.

I still think the Cubs are most likely to win the division, but their 2 primary competitors have gotten markedly better and from what I have seen, the Cubs have not.  I wouldn't just give them the division. They are much the same, at best (pending that starter), while the teams beneath them got better.  The Brewers finished 6 games back and added about 9.5 WAR between Yelich and Cain.  That's not quite how it works, but the division has tightened in my opinion.  That's all I'm saying.

The Brewers have added some talent, no doubt. However, your notion that the division has tightened is going off of the assumption that the Brewers will still get the same or similar production from guys like Thames, Pina, Shaw, Hernandez, Aguilar, Nelson and Anderson - all of whom had career years in 2017. Maybe they've turned the corner and most of them will produce similarly this year as well, but I don't think that's very likely.

The Cubs won 92 games despite getting down years offensively (relatively speaking) from Bryant, Russell, Zobrist and Schwarber. They didn't necessarily need to go out and get another hitter to improve their offense. They need their guys to stay healthy and play up to their abilities. Maybe Schwarber and Russell didn't really have down years, maybe 2017 is who they are, but I don't think that's very likely.

[#UnleashSean]

Ok, so they replaced Arrieta with noone.  That is even worse.  Maybe they get Darvish or someone else, but they haven't yet. Lester is a year older and coming off a season where he didn't look like a TOR starter.   Their rotation is worse, currently, and without doubt.

Morrow may be lights out.  Cishek and co maybe better.  But Davis was perfect is save opportunities.  Bullpens are volatile.   The Cubs are taking some calculated risks without a proven closer, could be a great pen, could be good or ok, could be bad.  I know I would rather have Knebel.

The lineup issues are minor, but the leadoff spot is a question for sure.  Jay was pretty solid last year, and I guess Almora will be given every chance this year and will likely be just fine.  Zobrist may be fading into the end of his career, Heyward isn't a prize.   But as you stated, they will score runs.  They have 2 legit MVP caliber hitters in their order which fixes a lot of problems.  Maybe this is the year Schwarber hits 40 HRs...and .250.  But they haven't gotten any better offensively, as you pointed out may e they didn't need to,  but the Brewers and Cards have improved.

I still think the Cubs are most likely to win the division, but their 2 primary competitors have gotten markedly better and from what I have seen, the Cubs have not.  I wouldn't just give them the division. They are much the same, at best (pending that starter), while the teams beneath them got better.  The Brewers finished 6 games back and added about 9.5 WAR between Yelich and Cain.  That's not quite how it works, but the division has tightened in my opinion.  That's all I'm saying.

You forgot the cubs greatest strength. Their young players get better every year. And they are a young team.

[🏀]

Morrow may be lights out.  Cishek and co maybe better.  But Davis was perfect is save opportunities.  Bullpens are volatile.   The Cubs are taking some calculated risks without a proven closer, could be a great pen, could be good or ok, could be bad.  I know I would rather have Knebel.

I don't think Morrow will be the closer, CJE will be. The bullpen was the Brewers strongest asset last season, which you claim to be volatile. Corey Knebel was a career replacement level player until last season where he outperformed his career stats by 277%.  I don't think that's a guy I'm putting full faith behind.

[MUBurrow]

The Brewers have added some talent, no doubt. However, your notion that the division has tightened is going off of the assumption that the Brewers will still get the same or similar production from guys like Thames, Pina, Shaw, Hernandez, Aguilar, Nelson and Anderson - all of whom had career years in 2017. Maybe they've turned the corner and most of them will produce similarly this year as well, but I don't think that's very likely.

The Cubs won 92 games despite getting down years offensively (relatively speaking) from Bryant, Russell, Zobrist and Schwarber. They didn't necessarily need to go out and get another hitter to improve their offense. They need their guys to stay healthy and play up to their abilities. Maybe Schwarber and Russell didn't really have down years, maybe 2017 is who they are, but I don't think that's very likely.

Unfortunately for the Brewers, I think there is a lot correct here. Reversion to the mean will be good to the Cubs and bad to the Brewers. That being said, the Brewers' moves have made their all or nothing offensive approach quite a bit more balanced, which should be good for the entire lineup (though I'm still not wild about the Cain contract).

[Jockey]

You forgot the cubs greatest strength. Their young players get better every year. And they are a young team.

Russell, Schwarber, Heyward, Bryant, Rizzo, Hendricks. They got better last year?

If it was sarcasm, I'll leave this for Cubbie fans anyway.

[MerrittsMustache]

Russell, Schwarber, Heyward, Bryant, Rizzo, Hendricks. They got better last year?

If it was sarcasm, I'll leave this for Cubbie fans anyway.

You're right. Those guys all had "down" years last season...and the Cubs still won the division with 92 wins 

[🏀]

 

Just wanted to get in on this.

 

[BrewCity83]

You're right. Those guys all had "down" years last season...and the Cubs still won the division with 92 wins 

They're young...maybe last year is who they really are, and 2016 was their "career year".

[#UnleashSean]

They're young...maybe last year is who they really are, and 2016 was their "career year".

I'll take winning the division and going to the Nlcs for the 3rd straight year any year.

[buckchuckler]

I don't think Morrow will be the closer, CJE will be. The bullpen was the Brewers strongest asset last season, which you claim to be volatile. Corey Knebel was a career replacement level player until last season where he outperformed his career stats by 277%.  I don't think that's a guy I'm putting full faith behind.

Theo apparently disagrees.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/epstein-on-free-agency-morrow-core.html

[buckchuckler]

Another example of how Cub fans are the most entertaining.  One says young guys had down years, literally the next post says the young players on the Cubs always get better.  Can't script this stuff any better.

[Jockey]

They're young...maybe last year is who they really are, and 2016 was their "career year".

On a serious note, I would bet that at least 4 out of the 6 guys I listed improve this year. I was just commenting on the statement that the young guys get better every year. Getting better every year is not a normal progression for a young guy.

[Jockey]

I still think the Cubs are most likely to win the division, but their 2 primary competitors have gotten markedly better and from what I have seen, the Cubs have not.  I wouldn't just give them the division. They are much the same, at best (pending that starter), while the teams beneath them got better.  The Brewers finished 6 games back and added about 9.5 WAR between Yelich and Cain.  That's not quite how it works, but the division has tightened in my opinion.  That's all I'm saying.

I think you are right.

Brewers went from a longshot at wildcard and no chance at the Division to a solid shot at wild card and a long shot for division.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Ok, so they replaced Arrieta with noone.  That is even worse.  Maybe they get Darvish or someone else, but they haven't yet. Lester is a year older and coming off a season where he didn't look like a TOR starter.   Their rotation is worse, currently, and without doubt.

Morrow may be lights out.  Cishek and co maybe better.  But Davis was perfect is save opportunities.  Bullpens are volatile.   The Cubs are taking some calculated risks without a proven closer, could be a great pen, could be good or ok, could be bad.  I know I would rather have Knebel.

The lineup issues are minor, but the leadoff spot is a question for sure.  Jay was pretty solid last year, and I guess Almora will be given every chance this year and will likely be just fine.  Zobrist may be fading into the end of his career, Heyward isn't a prize.   But as you stated, they will score runs.  They have 2 legit MVP caliber hitters in their order which fixes a lot of problems.  Maybe this is the year Schwarber hits 40 HRs...and .250.  But they haven't gotten any better offensively, as you pointed out may e they didn't need to,  but the Brewers and Cards have improved.

I still think the Cubs are most likely to win the division, but their 2 primary competitors have gotten markedly better and from what I have seen, the Cubs have not.  I wouldn't just give them the division. They are much the same, at best (pending that starter), while the teams beneath them got better.  The Brewers finished 6 games back and added about 9.5 WAR between Yelich and Cain.  That's not quite how it works, but the division has tightened in my opinion.  That's all I'm saying.

Fair points.  Brewers have gotten better but I'm of the opinion they over-performed last year and the Cubs under-performed.  I could very easily be wrong - we'll see what happens.  Nelson is a big loss so we'll see what kind of pitching they get back when they trade an OF or two.  Can Anderson duplicate last season? 

As for the Cubs rotation, assuming the Cubs sign one of those three I mentioned, it will be considerably better than last year, health permitting.  Quintana for a full year is a big deal.  Eddie Butler made 13 starts for the Cubs last year.  Brett Anderson made a handful of horrendous starts.  Lackey was pretty bad as well although solid in the 2nd half.  Lester is an X factor.

Agree 100% that bullpens are volatile.  I would not be stunned if the Cubs bullpen was lights out or if there were serious issues.  No arguing that Knebel was fantastic last year.

As for the Cubs lineup, I think Almora leads off against LHP as he kills lefties.  One main question will be Zobrist, as you mentioned.  He had a short offseason and was hurt last year.  We'll find out if he's over the hill or if there's some life left in the bat as he plays less and against good matchups.  I can see him leading off against RHP.  Obviously nothing can be expected from Heyward - just have to hope for the best and that Chili Davis is good for him.  The group of position players is young and deep so I feel pretty good about them overall. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

On a serious note, I would bet that at least 4 out of the 6 guys I listed improve this year. I was just commenting on the statement that the young guys get better every year. Getting better every year is not a normal progression for a young guy.

This is right - development isn't always linear.

Happ was very productive last year but there were also some red flags so does he get better or have a sophomore slump where he needs to adjust? 

The expectations place on Schwarber last year after he missed a full year of development were unrealistic.  However, I'm extremely high on him this year. 

Assuming this is the order, I love the Cubs 2 - 5 of Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, and Schwarber.  Between Heyward, Almora, Baez, Happ, Zobrist, and Russell, I feel pretty confident they'll have a good offensive team.

[SaveOD238]

Assuming this is the order, I love the Cubs 2 - 5 of Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, and Schwarber. 

I’m not gonna argue that the Brewers lineup is better, but is a 2-5 of Yelich, Braun (healthy 2016-style Braun), Shaw, and Thames really that far behind? 

[#UnleashSean]

Another example of how Cub fans are the most entertaining.  One says young guys had down years, literally the next post says the young players on the Cubs always get better.  Can't script this stuff any better.

Statistical down years does not equal not improving. Strikeouts were way down. So we're homeruns and rbis but that could be chalked with an inconsistent leadoff spot injuries happening left right and center. If it hadn't been for a hitting slump and a terrible bullpen cubs might have grabbed 2 rings in a row.

[buckchuckler]

Statistical down years does not equal not improving. Strikeouts were way down. So we're homeruns and rbis but that could be chalked with an inconsistent leadoff spot injuries happening left right and center. If it hadn't been for a hitting slump and a terrible bullpen cubs might have grabbed 2 rings in a row.

Ok.  Not exactly sure what you are trying to say here, but Russell's K rate went up.  Schwarber's K rate went up.  Baez's K rate went up.  Those were the first 3 I checked.  Not sure where strikeouts were down. 
As far as the inconsistent leadoff spot, well that seems to be the same as last year, which was my point.

[Lennys Tap]

Statistical down years does not equal not improving.

Actually a lot (most?) of the time that's EXACTLY what it means.

[MUBurrow]

I’m not gonna argue that the Brewers lineup is better, but is a 2-5 of Yelich, Braun (healthy 2016-style Braun), Shaw, and Thames really that far behind?

Unfortunately, yes, I think it is. Bryant-Rizzo are probably the best back-to-back hitters in baseball, and I could probably come up with at least another 7-10 combos that are better than Yelich-Braun.  Its tough to even make an educated guess on what Shaw will do. Fangraphs has Shaw and Contreras projected for reasonably similar numbers - I personally trust Contreras's track record more than Shaw's but a good debate can be had there. Same with Schwarber vs Thames, but I think its tough to argue that Schwarber's arrow is pointing up, and I think Thames best baseball in the majors is behind him.

[mayfairskatingrink]

None of what the Brewers did means anything unless they also acquire two top-notch starters.

If they do that, then they are legit contenders.

[wadesworld]

None of what the Brewers did means anything unless they also acquire two top-notch starters.

If they do that, then they are legit contenders.

Maybe. Maybe not. If they trade Santana and prospects for Archer a staff of Archer, (eventually, sounds like he’s about 3 weeks ahead of schedule in his rehab) Nelson, Anderson, Chacin, Davies is pretty solid. And then you might have Hader moving into a starting role and Woodruff who showed a lot of promise down the stretch of last year. Suter and Garra provide some depth.

[MUBurrow]

In a hypothetical deep Brewers playoff run, I don't think it'll be on the back of the same pitchers that get them through the regular season. The price to acquire top pitchers for any length of time is so extreme, I think its more likely that the Brewers add a solid 2-3 type in the offseason, and just try to hang around. If the Crew are in the wildcard lead in July, and esp if they're within striking distance for the division, then they make a move for a rental for the playoffs ala CC. 

So rather than looking at Archer or Fulmer, I think more likely scenarios would be to trade for someone like Duffy, or to sign Cobb, Lynn (2018) or Estrada, Morton (2019) in the offseason. Then, provided they're pitching well and their team isn't contending, you could make a deadline move for someone like Garrett Richards (2018) or Bumgarner (2019).

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Maybe. Maybe not. If they trade Santana and prospects for Archer a staff of Archer, (eventually, sounds like he’s about 3 weeks ahead of schedule in his rehab) Nelson, Anderson, Chacin, Davies is pretty solid. And then you might have Hader moving into a starting role and Woodruff who showed a lot of promise down the stretch of last year. Suter and Garra provide some depth.

If that was enough for Archer he'd be a Brewer already.

[wadesworld]

If that was enough for Archer he'd be a Brewer already.

Not from what I’ve seen.