MLB 2018 Season

[nyg]

As probably the only Marlins fan on the board, you Brewer fans just got one heck of a player.

I am a spring training season ticket holder of the Marlins for the past ten years and have seen the likes of Stanton, Jose Fernandez, Yelich, Realmuto, Ozuna and other players come thru.

Yelich is a great fielder, won a gold glove, hitter, won Silver Slugger, has speed and will hit anywhere in the top three spots. Just a tremendous swing.  No personal issues, never a problem child and only had one injury (back) the kept him out of the lineup. 

Great pickup and I hope he gets the recognition of fans (he has it among players) in the Brewer community.

[MUBurrow]

Gave up a haul, but Yelich is very good.  Wishing Diaz wasn't one of the players included but prospects are prospects.

Yup. Per mlb.com, that's prospects 1, 6, and 14 from the system (Yamamoto not in the top 30).  5 years of affordable control on a 20/20 guy that is 26 and slashes .290/.370/.440 is worth its weight in gold to a small market team, though.

I think all of the economics around this deal say you have to do it. Imagine the Brewers implode and the competitive window doesn't come to fruition. In two years from now, if Yelich just plays to his averages and maybe develops a tiny bit more power to hit 25 HRs in 2018 and 2019 (or just the Miller Park effect), I could see the Brewers being able to get two top 10 prospects from a decent farm system in the 2020 offseason for him. And that's with two less years and the option raise kicking in. As far as sunk cost certainty, it doesn't get much better than that. The only way this deal looks bad in retrospect (barring injury or calamitous dropoff out of nowhere from Yelich) is if Brinson routinely turns in 30/30 .300 seasons. And he might!  But I don't think that possibility is enough to keep you from pulling the trigger.

[Jockey]

As probably the only Marlins fan on the board, you Brewer fans just got one heck of a player.

I am a spring training season ticket holder of the Marlins for the past ten years and have seen the likes of Stanton, Jose Fernandez, Yelich, Realmuto, Ozuna and other players come thru.

Yelich is a great fielder, won a gold glove, hitter, won Silver Slugger, has speed and will hit anywhere in the top three spots. Just a tremendous swing.  No personal issues, never a problem child and only had one injury (back) the kept him out of the lineup. 

Great pickup and I hope he gets the recognition of fans (he has it among players) in the Brewer community.

Plus, Yelich is going from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park.

Looks like a good trade for you guys as well.

[GGGG]

Gave up a haul, but Yelich is very good.  Wishing Diaz wasn't one of the players included but prospects are prospects.

Exactly. This is one of the reasons you stockpile.

[nyg]

Marlins will stink for years to come.  Jose’s death was the start and the finish was losing one of best outfields, if not the best in Ozuna, Yelich and Stanton.  Realmuto next, and the team will consist of has beens and minor leaguers.  Attendance may be lowest of any team in history.  Shame. 

But, they got some young, extremely talented players from Yanks, Cards and Brewers.  Just going to take time and hope they are good as expected and I get to watch them grow every March. 

[buckchuckler]

Wow.  Go Brewers. A new OF

[MUBurrow]

Oh my and now Cain. 80 over 5 with no trade protection. I'm having a much tougher time immediately jumping on board with this one.

[Jockey]

Exactly. This is one of the reasons you stockpile.

Yup.

So they basically got Yelich, Chase Anderson, and Travis Shaw for Lucroy, Thornburg, Segura, and Tyler Wagner.

That;s how a good GM moves pieces around.

[Jockey]

Oh my and now Cain. 80 over 5 with no trade protection. I'm having a much tougher time immediately jumping on board with this one.

Biggest issue for MIL last year was getting guys on base. Cain and Yelich will solve that problem. Love my keeper in Fantasy - Travis Shaw. Lots of RBI ops.

One more deal to go - Santana for a starter.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Sounds like Brewers sign Cain - 5/80.

He'll help in the near-term but that's a pretty bad contract, IMO. 

[Jockey]

Sounds like Brewers sign Cain - 5/80.

He'll help in the near-term but that's a pretty bad contract, IMO.

Fangraphs predivted 4/68, so 5/80 is right in the ballpark.

Over the last 3 years, Cain is 24th in WAR among position players, so barring injury, they should get more than their money's worth over the 1st 3 years.

Good article from yesterday:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/someone-should-sign-lorenzo-cain/

[4everwarriors]

Awesum, now get rida Braun for a bag of rosin and we bee talkin', hey?

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Fangraphs predivted 4/68, so 5/80 is right in the ballpark.

Over the last 3 years, Cain is 24th in WAR among position players, so barring injury, they should get more than their money's worth over the 1st 3 years.

Good article from yesterday:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/someone-should-sign-lorenzo-cain/

He should certainly be good the first two years and the Brewers can move him to a corner with the presence of Yelich so he won't have to play CF as his speed declines.  However, I'm stunned he got 5 years in this market.  I still think it's a bad contract when looking at the years. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Yup. Per mlb.com, that's prospects 1, 6, and 14 from the system (Yamamoto not in the top 30).  5 years of affordable control on a 20/20 guy that is 26 and slashes .290/.370/.440 is worth its weight in gold to a small market team, though.

I think all of the economics around this deal say you have to do it. Imagine the Brewers implode and the competitive window doesn't come to fruition. In two years from now, if Yelich just plays to his averages and maybe develops a tiny bit more power to hit 25 HRs in 2018 and 2019 (or just the Miller Park effect), I could see the Brewers being able to get two top 10 prospects from a decent farm system in the 2020 offseason for him. And that's with two less years and the option raise kicking in. As far as sunk cost certainty, it doesn't get much better than that. The only way this deal looks bad in retrospect (barring injury or calamitous dropoff out of nowhere from Yelich) is if Brinson routinely turns in 30/30 .300 seasons. And he might!  But I don't think that possibility is enough to keep you from pulling the trigger.

Yelich's never gone 20/20.  Still an excellent player, of course. 

[mayfairskatingrink]

Brewers should keep Santana and move Braun to 1B.

Santana, Cain and Yellich might be the best defensive outfield in baseball.

I'm afraid they will trade Santana for a mediocre pitcher.  They still have the money.  Sign Darvish and they're all set to make a legit run at the division.

[Jockey]

He should certainly be good the first two years and the Brewers can move him to a corner with the presence of Yelich so he won't have to play CF as his speed declines.  However, I'm stunned he got 5 years in this market.  I still think it's a bad contract when looking at the years.

I agree - I didn't expect anyone to give 5 years. I think that has been the holdup on several of the top FAs.

[The Lens]

Mark Attanosio continues to impress.  Now let's hope he follows Arthur Blank's lead in the newest way to make money:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22212592/atlanta-falcons-drop-prices-make-more-money-mercedes-benz-stadium-concessions

[#UnleashSean]

Curious what Stearns' end game is. A lot of interest in OFs (Yelich, Cain), which means the rest of our OFs are on the block. I wouldn't think he would, but would Braun waive his no-trade to Miami (hometown, easy access to Biogenesis) for Braun + prospects + cash considerations?

Haven't Yall learned yet. No one wants Braun. Between his awful fielding, age, speed, contract, and stigma. The Brewers have been trying to get rid of him for a while. No one is ever going to bite.

[GB Warrior]

Haven't Yall learned yet. No one wants Braun. Between his awful fielding, age, speed, contract, and stigma. The Brewers have been trying to get rid of him for a while. No one is ever going to bite.

I was saying that it would take a lot (prospects, paying the majority of his salary). All of which is true and is also not something a small market team does often, if ever. No chance Braun waives anything now that we're going for it.

Will be interesting to see where the offseason goes from here. I've seen comments about Braun to first, but that seems premature to me. Much more likely is a trade for 2 of the other 3. I'd like to keep Phillips since he plays all 3 positions and would appear to be the future to replace Braun.

One would think that we pull out of the Darvish race given where it would leave our payroll, but we'll see. Today certainly made MKE more attractive for him.  Will be an interesting couple days.

[GB Warrior]

Santana, Cain and Yellich might be the best defensive outfield in baseball.

That's no thanks to Santana. Great arm, but an otherwise awful defender

[MerrittsMustache]

Yelich and Cain are good players. I would take either of them as the Cubs' CF and lead-off man. The prices may have been a bit steep for both but you can't fault the Brewers for going all in. Unfortunately, they face the same predicament that the Pirates faced a few years ago. They're a pretty good team but they're not the best team in the division. Basically, their chances of making a run in the playoffs are resting on being able to win a 1-game crapshoot.

The Brewers should be pretty interesting to watch this season. They've got some good, young talent and they're coming off an 86-win season. However, they had a significant number of players around age 30 who had career years (Shaw, Pina, Thames, Anderson, Nelson). Can those guys duplicate that success or will they regress to the mean? Fangraphs projects the Brewers to win 76 games in 2018* so their metrics clearly project regression.


* - not sure if the Yelich and Cain acquisitions were included in the projection

[GGGG]

Haven't Yall learned yet. No one wants Braun. Between his awful fielding, age, speed, contract, and stigma. The Brewers have been trying to get rid of him for a while. No one is ever going to bite.

If Braun can put together a year like he did in 2016, he's fine.  Overpaid but not a negative value by any means.

[buckchuckler]

Yelich and Cain are good players. I would take either of them as the Cubs' CF and lead-off man. The prices may have been a bit steep for both but you can't fault the Brewers for going all in. Unfortunately, they face the same predicament that the Pirates faced a few years ago. They're a pretty good team but they're not the best team in the division. Basically, their chances of making a run in the playoffs are resting on being able to win a 1-game crapshoot.

The Brewers should be pretty interesting to watch this season. They've got some good, young talent and they're coming off an 86-win season. However, they had a significant number of players around age 30 who had career years (Shaw, Pina, Thames, Anderson, Nelson). Can those guys duplicate that success or will they regress to the mean? Fangraphs projects the Brewers to win 76 games in 2018* so their metrics clearly project regression.


* - not sure if the Yelich and Cain acquisitions were included in the projection

There is certainly risk of that scenario, but I wouldn't be so sure about it.  I think right now there are 3 teams that could contend to win the NL central.   The Cubs haven't improved this offseason, and I think they have gotten worse.  Morrow will have a tough time being as effective as Davis ( no blown saves right?).  They replaced Arrieta with Chatwood  (clearly a significant downgrade) and haven't addressed a lineup that had some issues last season.  Maybe Almora answers those questions, but maybe not. 
I agree that the Brewers are a pitcher short, but they have the assets to get one, which could make them a serious contender or even a favorite in the division.

The Cardinals have improved as well, I know I am really curious to see what they have in Reyes, and if they can make 1 more move and get a middle of the order bat first baseman (ohhh Hosmeeeerrrr.....)

[Vander Blue Man Group]

There is certainly risk of that scenario, but I wouldn't be so sure about it.  I think right now there are 3 teams that could contend to win the NL central.   The Cubs haven't improved this offseason, and I think they have gotten worse.  Morrow will have a tough time being as effective as Davis ( no blown saves right?).  They replaced Arrieta with Chatwood  (clearly a significant downgrade) and haven't addressed a lineup that had some issues last season.  Maybe Almora answers those questions, but maybe not. 
I agree that the Brewers are a pitcher short, but they have the assets to get one, which could make them a serious contender or even a favorite in the division.

The Cardinals have improved as well, I know I am really curious to see what they have in Reyes, and if they can make 1 more move and get a middle of the order bat first baseman (ohhh Hosmeeeerrrr.....)

Chatwood is not replacing Arrieta - he is replacing Lackey and will likely be a solid upgrade.  The Cubs will also have Quintana for the entire year and I will be stunned if they don't add one of Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb, with the preference being Darvish. 

Morrow is not a sure thing and he has had health issues but the contract Davis got is awful and he had a lot of underlying issues that were concerning last year, including walk rate and decreased velo.  Between Morrow, Edwards, Strop, Cishek, and hopefully a bounce back from Justin Wilson, I feel fine with the back end of the bullpen.

What are the issues with the lineup?  They scored the 4th most runs in baseball and had the 6th highest OPS.
 Perhaps there's a bit too much swing and miss and they don't have a natural leadoff hitter but the team should score a lot of runs.  Rizzo, Bryant, and Contreras will produce.  Schwarber put up an .894 OPS post All-Star break.  Guys like Almora, Happ, Baez, and Russell still can improve (although that's not guaranteed).  Scoring runs is not a concern to me.   

The Brewers and Cardinals are better but I'm not particularly worried about either of them and if the Cubs add Darvish I expect them to be a little better this year. 

[buckchuckler]

Chatwood is not replacing Arrieta - he is replacing Lackey and will likely be a solid upgrade.  The Cubs will also have Quintana for the entire year and I will be stunned if they don't add one of Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb, with the preference being Darvish. 

Morrow is not a sure thing and he has had health issues but the contract Davis got is awful and he had a lot of underlying issues that were concerning last year, including walk rate and decreased velo.  Between Morrow, Edwards, Strop, Cishek, and hopefully a bounce back from Justin Wilson, I feel fine with the back end of the bullpen.

What are the issues with the lineup?  They scored the 4th most runs in baseball and had the 6th highest OPS.
 Perhaps there's a bit too much swing and miss and they don't have a natural leadoff hitter but the team should score a lot of runs.  Rizzo, Bryant, and Contreras will produce.  Schwarber put up an .894 OPS post All-Star break.  Guys like Almora, Happ, Baez, and Russell still can improve (although that's not guaranteed).  Scoring runs is not a concern to me.   

The Brewers and Cardinals are better but I'm not particularly worried about either of them and if the Cubs add Darvish I expect them to be a little better this year.

Ok, so they replaced Arrieta with noone.  That is even worse.  Maybe they get Darvish or someone else, but they haven't yet. Lester is a year older and coming off a season where he didn't look like a TOR starter.   Their rotation is worse, currently, and without doubt.

Morrow may be lights out.  Cishek and co maybe better.  But Davis was perfect is save opportunities.  Bullpens are volatile.   The Cubs are taking some calculated risks without a proven closer, could be a great pen, could be good or ok, could be bad.  I know I would rather have Knebel.

The lineup issues are minor, but the leadoff spot is a question for sure.  Jay was pretty solid last year, and I guess Almora will be given every chance this year and will likely be just fine.  Zobrist may be fading into the end of his career, Heyward isn't a prize.   But as you stated, they will score runs.  They have 2 legit MVP caliber hitters in their order which fixes a lot of problems.  Maybe this is the year Schwarber hits 40 HRs...and .250.  But they haven't gotten any better offensively, as you pointed out may e they didn't need to,  but the Brewers and Cards have improved.

I still think the Cubs are most likely to win the division, but their 2 primary competitors have gotten markedly better and from what I have seen, the Cubs have not.  I wouldn't just give them the division. They are much the same, at best (pending that starter), while the teams beneath them got better.  The Brewers finished 6 games back and added about 9.5 WAR between Yelich and Cain.  That's not quite how it works, but the division has tightened in my opinion.  That's all I'm saying.