MLB 2018 Season

[wadesworld]

Where the Brewers were in the standings had nothing to do with them "faltering."  It had everything to do with a far superior baseball team finally playing like a superior baseball team.  The Brewers didn't "falter down the stretch."

The Brewers were up 5.5 games in the division at the All-Star Break, lost that lead 12 games later, played .500 baseball for the final 70 games of the season, including a 2-5 stretch in late September and finished 5.5 games back in the division. That's an 11-game swing in 2.5 months. That's where the narrative that they "faltered down the stretch last season" is coming from.

I guess if mid July is "down the stretch," sure, you got me!

The Brewers had a .518 winning percentage 81 (the first half of the season, since Chicago fans seem to be struggling with the math here) games into the season.  They had a .543 winning percentage in their last 81 (second half of the season) games.  They had a .555 winning percentage in September (and October 1).

So in a season where the Brewers' overall winning percentage was .531, they "faltered down the stretch" with winning percentages of .543 in the second half of the season and .555 in the last month of the season?

Makes sense.

[TallTitan34]

Where the Brewers were in the standings had nothing to do with them "faltering."  It had everything to do with a far superior baseball team finally playing like a superior baseball team.  The Brewers didn't "falter down the stretch."

I guess if mid July is "down the stretch," sure, you got me!

Yet it surprising that Cubs fans are confident that this far superior baseball team will win the division?

[wadesworld]

Yet it surprising that Cubs fans are confident that this far superior baseball team will win the division?

Who said it was surprising that Cubs fans are confident that their team will win the division?

And who said that this year's team is a far superior baseball team?

Your reading ability (I don't think it's even comprehension, I think you're just imagining what people are saying?  I really don't know what you're reading...) is struggling quite a bit lately.

[MerrittsMustache]

Where the Brewers were in the standings had nothing to do with them "faltering."  It had everything to do with a far superior baseball team finally playing like a superior baseball team.  The Brewers didn't "falter down the stretch."

I guess if mid July is "down the stretch," sure, you got me!

The Brewers had a .518 winning percentage 81 (the first half of the season, since Chicago fans seem to be struggling with the math here) games into the season.  They had a .543 winning percentage in their last 81 (second half of the season) games.  They had a .555 winning percentage in September (and October 1).

So in a season where the Brewers' overall winning percentage was .531, they "faltered down the stretch" with winning percentages of .543 in the second half of the season and .555 in the last month of the season?

Makes sense.

Does going 4-6 from September 20-30 (including a sub-.500 7-game homestand) count enough as "down the stretch" for you? Keep in mind that the Brewers missed the postseason by 1 game.

[WarriorDad]

Yet it surprising that Cubs fans are confident that this far superior baseball team will win the division?

I'm not overly confident, but with the smack talk by Brewers fans earlier in the year, it was good to provide some push back.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Back to the Darvish/Arrieta subject, there was no rift of any kind with Arrieta and the front office.  The team broached an extension a number of times while Jake was still under team control but at the time there was no way Boras and Arrieta were going to give the team any kind of deal.  The same held true once he hit free agency.  This is from The Athletic on the very topic:

"Sources said there was too much history between the sides to ever think the Cubs could realistically put together a contract with Philadelphia's structure. There was a precedent set with Jon Lester's six-year, $155 million megadeal plus the reference points from the long-term discussions during Arrieta's arbitration years."

Also regarding the preference for Darvish:

"The Cubs made Darvish their clear priority, projecting his upside and how their pitching infrastructure might unlock his full potential. The contract's average annual value also fit nicely into the team's luxury-tax calculations."

There were concerns with Arrieta's command and a drop in his velocity.  His velocity on his sinker and slider are both up by 1.2 and 1.5 MPH respectively this year. 

His pitch mix has changed quite a bit from his dominant 2015 season.  He's throwing the sinker a lot more and the slider a lot less.  In 2015 he threw the sinker about 44% of the time and this year that is up to about 62% while the slider has dropped from about 30% to 15%. 

His K/9 has dropped from 8.72 last year to 6.20 so far this year but he's inducing a ton of soft contact and has been very good.  He's definitely a different kind of pitcher, at least so far.  It'll be interesting to see how he continues to perform - his last two starts were not great. 

Ultimately, it's too early judge either contract. 

[MUfan12]

There have been some asinine comments in these threads over the years, but the "faltering" one is right up there. The Cubs played almost .670 ball in the second half. A lot of teams would lose a modest division lead over that period against a team that hot.

[buckchuckler]

Sigh, I was just razzing Merritt a little bit. Didn't mean this to be another pissing match.

The Brewers didn't falter down the stretch. They faltered right after the all star break. They lost 11/14 and then played pretty much even with the cubs the rest of the way

Somehow this has made someone's conjecture of Mike Trout being killed in a car crash not the worst part of the last few pages of this thread. 

[TallTitan34]

Who said it was surprising that Cubs fans are confident that their team will win the division?

And who said that this year's team is a far superior baseball team?

Your reading ability (I don't think it's even comprehension, I think you're just imagining what people are saying?  I really don't know what you're reading...) is struggling quite a bit lately.

These quotes below are questioning why we would be confident in the Cubs winning the division.

So you are confident because your bullpen is being overused, Darvish will be a different guy than he has for the last year (4.50 ERA in the 2nd half last year --not counting the disaster of the playoffs-- and we know about this year), that Chatwood can't throw strikes and needs to go to Iowa, .280 is close to .300 and Javy Baez is streaky?  Got it.

Cub player or team does worse than expected.  Merritt says that it's temporary because they know how to win when it matters.

[jsglow]

Sigh, I was just razzing Merritt a little bit. Didn't mean this to be another pissing match.

The Brewers didn't falter down the stretch. They faltered right after the all star break. They lost 11/14 and then played pretty much even with the cubs the rest of the way

I'm remembering that stretch now.  That was pretty tough.

As to September, what I recall was the Crew failing to maintain playoff pace after Nelson got hurt.  Had he remained healthy, I sincerely believe they would have made the playoffs despite the significant WC lead that Colorado held.  You guys remember Couns going with 'bullpen days'?  Were they even forced to reinsert Garza into the rotation?  Don't think it got that desperate.  They gave it all they had.  I remember being proud went they got to the last Saturday.

[MerrittsMustache]

There have been some asinine comments in these threads over the years, but the "faltering" one is right up there. The Cubs played almost .670 ball in the second half. A lot of teams would lose a modest division lead over that period against a team that hot.

The division is one thing but what about that second Wild Card team that beat out the Brewers but played sub-.500 baseball from July on?

[buckchuckler]

The division is one thing but what about that second Wild Card team that beat out the Brewers but played sub-.500 baseball from July on?

Well that team played .570 baseball in the first half, which I think that is why they play, like, the whole season.  And talking about standings in June is a stupid waste of time.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

These quotes below are questioning why we would be confident in the Cubs winning the division.

As the author of one of those quotes I can tell you that you misinterpreted it.

[buckchuckler]

As the author of one of those quotes I can tell you that you misinterpreted it.

As the author of the other it was just a snarky recap of something TT had himself said.

[wadesworld]

The division is one thing but what about that second Wild Card team that beat out the Brewers but played sub-.500 baseball from July on?

The Brewers were 7.5 and 4 games back of the two teams that ended up with a Wild Card spot as of July 1 last year.  They missed the Wild Card by 1 game.  AKA they made up 3 games "down the stretch," since the entire second half of the season is "down the stretch."

I literally have no clue what you're talking about.  You're reaching big time.  The Brewers did not "falter down the stretch" last year, no matter how hard you try to twist and turn to make it fit your agenda.

[jsglow]

The division is one thing but what about that second Wild Card team that beat out the Brewers but played sub-.500 baseball from July on?

Merritt, the Rockies were 52-39 at the All Star break.  Now you're just being an a-clown for the fun of it.  At least make a reasoned argument.

Bottom line.  The Crew won 86 games last year.  Way better than anyone anywhere would have predicted.  Were they as good as the Cubs?  No.  Are they this year? Maybe.  Time will tell.

[#UnleashSean]

All im hearing in all of these arguments is, the brewers didnt make it eh? 

[jsglow]

All im hearing in all of these arguments is, the brewers didnt make it eh? 

No one disagrees with that.  No one expected it.  And this year's team seems to have built on that initial success.  And that's where it stands.

Now if the Cubs don't make it and end up being the 1985 Bears.   

[MerrittsMustache]

The Brewers were 7.5 and 4 games back of the two teams that ended up with a Wild Card spot as of July 1 last year.  They missed the Wild Card by 1 game.  AKA they made up 3 games "down the stretch," since the entire second half of the season is "down the stretch."

I literally have no clue what you're talking about.  You're reaching big time.  The Brewers did not "falter down the stretch" last year, no matter how hard you try to twist and turn to make it fit your agenda.

I have no "agenda" and I'm not twisting and turning at all. The Brewers went 35-35 in their last 70 games. You clearly don't consider that "down the stretch," which is fine. However, you also choose to ignore the fact that they missed the Wild Card in large part due to a 4-6 stretch in games 152-161. During that stretch, they blew a game in Pittsburgh, blew a game against the Cubs and got shutout at home by Homer Bailey and his 6.96 ERA. I'd consider that "faltering" whether you do or not.

[#UnleashSean]

No one disagrees with that.  No one expected it.  And this year's team seems to have built on that initial success.  And that's where it stands.

Now if the Cubs don't make it and end up being the 1985 Bears.   

Fine by me. All I wanted was 1 world series. I got two extra trips to the nlcs.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I'm not overly confident, but with the smack talk by Brewers fans earlier in the year, it was good to provide some push back.

How are the Angels doing?  Scoscia good?

[MerrittsMustache]

Merritt, the Rockies were 52-39 at the All Star break.  Now you're just being an a-clown for the fun of it.  At least make a reasoned argument.

Bottom line.  The Crew won 86 games last year.  Way better than anyone anywhere would have predicted.  Were they as good as the Cubs?  No.  Are they this year? Maybe.  Time will tell.

The Brewers were 50-41 at the ASB (2 games worse). They didn't need to set the world on fire to catch Colorado.

[jsglow]

The Brewers were 50-41 at the ASB (2 games worse). They didn't need to set the world on fire to catch Colorado.

We agree.  And their first two weeks after the break set those wheels in motion.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Wait, Mike Trout is dead?

[wadesworld]

I have no "agenda" and I'm not twisting and turning at all. The Brewers went 35-35 in their last 70 games. You clearly don't consider that "down the stretch," which is fine. However, you also choose to ignore the fact that they missed the Wild Card in large part due to a 4-6 stretch in games 152-161. During that stretch, they blew a game in Pittsburgh, blew a game against the Cubs and got shutout at home by Homer Bailey and his 6.96 ERA. I'd consider that "faltering" whether you do or not.

No, I don't consider the last 44% of a season to be "down the stretch." To each their own I suppose.

The Brewers were also 9-2 in the 11 games prior to game 152 to get back into it, yet still a game back going into your 10 game stretch. So sure, pick out one 10 game stretch that fits your agenda. Just about every team will have a sub .500 10 game stretch in their last month.

You got it wrong. The Brewers were quite strong down the stretch. .555 over the last month of the season.