Yay ... my favorite college football team won!

[brewcity77]

Won’t even be a consideration. UW would get in ahead of them no doubt.

If Miami goes undefeated to the ACC Championship game and their only loss is a one-loss, playoff bound Clemson and two wins over teams (ND, Va Tech) that are better than Wisconsin's best win (3-loss Ohio State or Northwestern) I could see an argument for taking Miami over Wisconsin. That schedule really hurts the Badgers, as does the B10 East devouring itself.

[jsglow]

While there is the theoretical possibility that an undefeated Bucky gets left out (I put it at 5%), and while I further agree that the only open scenario is some funky SEC finish that gets 2 in, the one thing you guys are failing to consider in your discussion is that such a decision would certainly leave two of the Power 5 conferences out in the cold.  Has that ever happened before?  Maybe, not sure.  Has it ever happened when one of those conferences was represented by an undefeated team?  I'm confident the answer is no.  Now if two of the Power 5 have 2 loss standard bearers after the Championship games then sure, it becomes a possibility that folks view as legitimate.

I know all you guys hate Wisconsin.  But last week they solidly beat a ranked Iowa.  And assuming they beat Michigan and Ohio State, that'll easily be enough.  It wasn't their fault that BYU had an unusually down year when Barry scheduled that road game years ago.  So every week beginning last week their strength of schedule will improve.  And by the end 'freethrowsnomatta'.

[MUBurrow]

Agree with glow and the rest saying that the chance of undefeated Bucky getting left out is probably in the single digit %. Again, I think the only plausible scenarios are 1-loss UGA & Bama getting in ahead of UW if UGA wins a close SEC Championship, or 1-loss Clemson and Miami if Miami loses a close ACC Championship. I think both those scenarios still favor the Badgers, and the style points would have to be a major factor to keep them out (e.g. UW wins out but looks uglier doing it than they did against Iowa, while those conference championship games are instant classics).

But I don't love the "not the Badgers fault" argument, or the "not UCF's fault" or "Boise St's fault" back in the day. Putting Washington in last year, or Wisco this year still punishes the teams that actually played tough schedules. Bama put FSU on the schedule. Clemson played Auburn. ND (as much as I loathe them) always puts tough out of conference (ACC) teams on their schedule. Say Auburn wins out - I think keeping either Bama or Auburn out for Wisco punishes those teams for actually playing games that people want to see as much as keeping Wisco out punishes them.

[drewm88]

538 has a CFP projection system where you can play with various scenarios. According to them, if Wisconsin wins out, they have a 98% chance of making it.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions

[MU82]

While there is the theoretical possibility that an undefeated Bucky gets left out (I put it at 5%), and while I further agree that the only open scenario is some funky SEC finish that gets 2 in, the one thing you guys are failing to consider in your discussion is that such a decision would certainly leave two of the Power 5 conferences out in the cold.  Has that ever happened before?  Maybe, not sure.  Has it ever happened when one of those conferences was represented by an undefeated team?  I'm confident the answer is no.  Now if two of the Power 5 have 2 loss standard bearers after the Championship games then sure, it becomes a possibility that folks view as legitimate.

I know all you guys hate Wisconsin.  But last week they solidly beat a ranked Iowa.  And assuming they beat Michigan and Ohio State, that'll easily be enough.  It wasn't their fault that BYU had an unusually down year when Barry scheduled that road game years ago.  So every week beginning last week their strength of schedule will improve.  And by the end 'freethrowsnomatta'.

This.

So it's simple: Bucky will lose and this all will become moot! (Or as Lou Piniella used to say: "mute.")

[Jockey]

But I don't love the "not the Badgers fault" argument, or the "not UCF's fault" or "Boise St's fault" back in the day. Putting Washington in last year, or Wisco this year still punishes the teams that actually played tough schedules. Bama put FSU on the schedule. Clemson played Auburn. ND (as much as I loathe them) always puts tough out of conference (ACC) teams on their schedule. Say Auburn wins out - I think keeping either Bama or Auburn out for Wisco punishes those teams for actually playing games that people want to see as much as keeping Wisco out punishes them.

Michigan and Iowa are better than FSU.

Bama has played no team currently ranked in the Top 15.

[MUBurrow]

Michigan and Iowa are better than FSU.

Bama has played no team currently ranked in the Top 15.

Agreed - but its the same point. If UW shouldn't be punished because BYU isn't good, Bama shouldn't be punished because FSU isn't good. Esp considering BYU's upside, even when scheduled, was what, middle of the top 25? FSU started off the year as Nat'l Champ favorite and is a top 10 program in the country.

When all is said and done, if Bama loses to Auburn, the top of the scheds stack up like this, and I think are pretty comparable:
UW - tOSU, UM, Iowa
Bama - Auburn, Miss St, LSU

So I wouldn't cry for Bama if they lost to Auburn then didn't make it vs undefeated Wisco. Now, if Bama beats Auburn, plugging UGA in there makes quite a bit of difference. If I feel bad for anybody in this mess, its Auburn, who had the best/toughest sched in the country by far, plays a lot like Wisco, and I think would beat Wisco by two and a half scores on a neutral field (here's hoping they play each other in the Cap One Bowl to find out... not that bowl games are a very good way to compare teams against each other, anyway).

[Jockey]

Agreed - but its the same point. If UW shouldn't be punished because BYU isn't good, Bama shouldn't be punished because FSU isn't good. Esp considering BYU's upside, even when scheduled, was what, middle of the top 25? FSU started off the year as Nat'l Champ favorite and is a top 10 program in the country.

When all is said and done, if Bama loses to Auburn, the top of the scheds stack up like this, and I think are pretty comparable:
UW - tOSU, UM, Iowa
Bama - Auburn, Miss St, LSU

So I wouldn't cry for Bama if they lost to Auburn then didn't make it vs undefeated Wisco. Now, if Bama beats Auburn, plugging UGA in there makes quite a bit of difference. If I feel bad for anybody in this mess, its Auburn, who had the best/toughest sched in the country by far, plays a lot like Wisco, and I think would beat Wisco by two and a half scores on a neutral field (here's hoping they play each other in the Cap One Bowl to find out... not that bowl games are a very good way to compare teams against each other, anyway).

Good analysis.

[Pakuni]

Bama has played no team currently ranked in the Top 15.

Kind of a moot point, given that they'll have played two top 10 teams by the time the playoff matchups are decided.
Regardless, anyone who's watched Alabama this year and believes they're not one of the four best teams in the country is very, very wrong.

[GooooMarquette]

Can't we all just be happy that ND won't be there?

[Jockey]

Kind of a moot point, given that they'll have played two top 10 teams by the time the playoff matchups are decided.
Regardless, anyone who's watched Alabama this year and believes they're not one of the four best teams in the country is very, very wrong.

You're right. Some have the same reaction when seeing UW hold Iowa to 70 yards a week after they hung a 55 spot on tOSU.

Next year is going to be the year UW will be ready to go for it all. Should be pre-season top 5 and schedule will be tougher. If Hornibrook takes a step forward, they will be legit contenders.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I just found out today my co-worker's father-in-law is the Defensive Coordinator at Michigan.  He's going out to Ann Arbor with the family for Thanksgiving to watch Michigan-Ohio State.

[jsglow]

You're right. Some have the same reaction when seeing UW hold Iowa to 70 yards a week after they hung a 55 spot on tOSU.

Next year is going to be the year UW will be ready to go for it all. Should be pre-season top 5 and schedule will be tougher. If Hornibrook takes a step forward, they will be legit contenders.

Agreed.  Next year Bucky has a legit shot at a national championship. Personally, I think they stumble against OSU in the Big 10 Championship this year and end up playing in the Citrus or something.

[4everwarriors]

Knot fur sure on dat. Der pretty good, ai na?

[JWags85]

Agreed.  Next year Bucky has a legit shot at a national championship. Personally, I think they stumble against OSU in the Big 10 Championship this year and end up playing in the Citrus or something.

With Hornibrook under center?  Nah.  They have a great defense and running game, but that can be stopped.  Even the great Bama teams had QBs that got NFL looks.  Blake Sims was probably the worst and he was superior to Hornibrook any day.  I'll also wait for a marquee win under Chryst.  The best he has is the LSU game, against a team who proved to be profoundly overrated and very much average.

[Jockey]

With Hornibrook under center?  Nah.  They have a great defense and running game, but that can be stopped.  Even the great Bama teams had QBs that got NFL looks.  Blake Sims was probably the worst and he was superior to Hornibrook any day.  I'll also wait for a marquee win under Chryst.  The best he has is the LSU game, against a team who proved to be profoundly overrated and very much average.

If you don't count Wilson, Tolzien, Sorgi, and Bollinger in the last dozen or so years, you are 100% correct. Hornibrook will be added to the group in a couple more years.

Besides a great defense and RBs, they will have one of the better receiving corps in the country next year as well.

We do agree that Hornibrook is the key. If he is what you think he will be, they will be a 10 win team. If he is what I think he will be, they are a contender for a Nat'l Championship. We will see which one of us got it right.

I would compare their chances to what the hoops team went through a couple years ago.

[jsglow]

With Hornibrook under center?  Nah.  They have a great defense and running game, but that can be stopped.  Even the great Bama teams had QBs that got NFL looks.  Blake Sims was probably the worst and he was superior to Hornibrook any day.  I'll also wait for a marquee win under Chryst.  The best he has is the LSU game, against a team who proved to be profoundly overrated and very much average.

You need to remember that he's a Sophomore.  And no Bucky QB needs to win the Heisman.  That's not how they do it.

[GGGG]

Hornibrook could most definitely improve.  However his mechanics can fall apart and it will be interesting to see what happens when Fumagalli leaves. 

[tower912]

Words I never thought I would have to type, but sometimes circumstances dictate...this hurts......
GO BLUE!

[jsglow]

Hornibrook could most definitely improve.  However his mechanics can fall apart and it will be interesting to see what happens when Fumagalli leaves.

All true.  But they have a long line of effective TEs.

[cheebs09]

Wisconsin is hosting Game Day and their celebrity guest picker is Craig T. Nelson. I don't know if they could have come up with a less relevant person to Wisconsin.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Wisconsin is hosting Game Day and their celebrity guest picker is Craig T. Nelson. I don't know if they could have come up with a less relevant person to Wisconsin.

He did lead Minnesota St to a national title over West Texas, with Wisconsin vs Minnesota highlights being used as the game footage.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Don't know if I've ever been more miserable at a game then the Northwestern game today.

[Jockey]

Don't know if I've ever been more miserable at a game then the Northwestern game today.

I feel your pain. Did the same thing in Evavson for a Northwestern - UW game some years ago. Low 30s, windy, rain & snow mix.

[GGGG]

All true.  But they have a long line of effective TEs.

Hornibrook really stepped up today.  After I thought he had no chance to.