Preseason predictions

[Marcus92]

T-Ranketology projects Marquette as a 7 seed in the 2018 NCAA tournament. Five other Big East teams get bids: Villanova (1 seed), Xavier (3), Seton Hall (4), Providence (6) and Butler (8).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

T-Ranketology projects Marquette as a 7 seed in the 2018 NCAA tournament. Five other Big East teams get bids: Villanova (1 seed), Xavier (3), Seton Hall (4), Providence (6) and Butler (8).

Creighton is a hard team to peg. They have two transfers coming in that could make or break their season. Kaleb Joseph was a top 50 player coming out of high school and was a decent starter for Syracuse his freshman season. He absolutely tanked his sophomore season. If his sophomore season was an anomaly, they could be alright. Manny Suarez was a stud at the D2 level, averaging a double double and shooting well from outside. But he started his career as a benchwarmer at Fordham. Can he translate his D2 success to the Big East? Or will he go right back to being a benchwarmer?

[Galway Eagle]

Creighton is a hard team to peg. They have two transfers coming in that could make or break their season. Kaleb Joseph was a top 50 player coming out of high school and was a decent starter for Syracuse his freshman season. He absolutely tanked his sophomore season. If his sophomore season was an anomaly, they could be alright. Manny Suarez was a stud at the D2 level, averaging a double double and shooting well from outside. But he started his career as a benchwarmer at Fordham. Can he translate his D2 success to the Big East? Or will he go right back to being a benchwarmer?

Out of curiosity is there any data to show who is more successful between D2 transfers and Juco transfers?

[Silkk the Shaka]

I talked to Bart several weeks back & don't think this has changed: Mid-year transfers (e.g., Harry for us) are NOT included. So, it's a question of whether adding Harry to the model would help us or hurt us. I think it's a big plus, but the model doesn't know about him.

Interesting! Thanks

[Eldon]

Bumpity

[tower912]

Athlon, Street & Smith, Lindy's all project MU to finish 7th-8th in the Big East this season.    Clearly we all have more important things to talk about.    But I will try something novel and actually try to talk about Marquette basketball.       I think these predictions are fair.   After all, significant returning minutes from last year are Markus, Rowsey, Sam, Haanif, and Heldt.     Others with ANY D1 experience are Froling (one semester at another school) and Sacar.    4 freshmen from outside the top 100 (or just on the edge according to some.   Regardless, not considered high impact) 
    Most of us tend to look at MU hoops through Blue and Gold glasses, so we see the potential with Harry.   Improvement from Sacar and Haanif.    Freshmen who come in and surprise everyone and outperform their high school rankings.  But the major preseason predictions from the CBB magazines are not going to be as optimistic.    They clearly see an inexperienced team lacking size at guard and forward. 
   I am going to continue to wear my homer glasses.   I think that everyone improves and the freshmen contribute.     Bubble team.

Dammmmnnmm, I'm good.

[tower912]

The only way this team gets to the dance is if all the returnees have improved AND they get consistent contributions from 4 others.

Bump.

[tower912]

If I said that our starting line up was going to be Heldt, Hauser, Haanif, Rowsey, and Howard, most would acknowledge that our team is going to be small.     Our most experienced bench players in this scenario are Froling and Sacar, who have one semester of limited D-1 play and one season of limited D-1 play respectively.    We have 4 freshmen that we assume are going to be good at some point, but none of whom were a consensus top 100 recruit.    There is no doubt that there is talent here.    How soon will the talent contribute?    I am optimistically thinking bubble team.    But an inexperienced roster like this can go sideways quickly.

I'm not gonna lie.   This is fun.

[WarriorDad]

Most seemed to get it right.

[Lennys Tap]

I'm not gonna lie.   This is fun.

You were right. We sucked. Glad you're happy.

[Floorslapper]

You were right. We sucked. Glad you're happy.

Damn near spit out the bite I took off my burrito at Chipotle.

T-Ranketology projects Marquette as a 7 seed in the 2018 NCAA tournament. Five other Big East teams get bids: Villanova (1 seed), Xavier (3), Seton Hall (4), Providence (6) and Butler (8).

So T-Rank basically got it right with the exception of Creighton getting in and MU not getting in. Missed pretty badly on us as a 7 seed.

[tower912]

You were right. We sucked. Glad you're happy.

MU played as well as a 9 player team playing 3 freshmen big minutes could be expected to.  Wearing an MU Jersey does not change immutable truths.

I made the argument multiple times.  Take Marquette off the Jersey.   If I told you that team X  would......
Have 9 scholarship players
3 of whom were outside the top 100 freshmen
3 of whom played the same position and nowhere else
4 sophomores
Have two starting guards and leading scorers  under 6'.
Would live and die by the 3
Playing in a brutally tough conference
With one of the toughest schedules in the country

Completely objectively, what would you predict for that team?

If you would objectively predict that team would go to the NCAA tourney, I would question your judgement.

Marquette on the front of the Jersey does not exempt MU from logic.

[Floorslapper]

MU played as well as a 9 player team playing 3 freshmen big minutes could be expected to.  Wearing an MU Jersey does not change immutable truths.

I made the argument multiple times.  Take Marquette off the Jersey.   If I told you that team X  would......
Have 9 scholarship players
3 of whom were outside the top 100 freshmen
3 of whom played the same position and nowhere else
Have two starting guards and leading scorers  under 6'.
Would live and die by the 3
Playing in a brutally tough conference
With one of the toughest schedules in the country

Completely objectively, what would you predict for that team?

If you would objectively predict that team would go to the NCAA tourney, I would question your judgement.

Marquette on the front of the Jersey does not exempt MU from logic.

Those "big" minutes you reference our freshman playing - well, Greg played 48% of conference minutes, Jamal 41% and Theo 25% - not exactly "big" minutes.

And if I told you 2 of the 3 returning players - the 5th year senior Rowsey, and sophomore Sam Hauser, would turn in the 2nd and 3rd best Value Add seasons THIS CENTURY at MU, after D-Wade, would you expect that team to miss the NCAA?

Lastly, who cares about Top 100 prospects?  Thought that didn't matter?  At least it didn't as it related to the 7 Wojo inherited in the empty cupboard when he took over.

Considering Wojo barely got us into the tourney last season when we were the Number 1, 3point shooting team in the land, and that we were a high volume 3 point shooting team was pause for concern.  As elite from 3 as we were last year, we should have been MUCH better than a 10 seed.

[GGGG]

Those "big" minutes you reference our freshman playing - well, Greg played 48% of conference minutes, Jamal 41% and Theo 25% - not exactly "big" minutes.

And if I told you 2 of the 3 returning players - the 5th year senior Rowsey, and sophomore Sam Hauser, would turn in the 2nd and 3rd best Value Add seasons THIS CENTURY at MU, after D-Wade, would you expect that team to miss the NCAA?

Lastly, who cares about Top 100 prospects?  Thought that didn't matter?  At least it didn't as it related to the 7 Wojo inherited in the empty cupboard when he took over.

Considering Wojo barely got us into the tourney last season when we were the Number 1, 3point shooting team in the land, and that we were a high volume 3 point shooting team was pause for concern.  As elite from 3 as we were last year, we should have been MUCH better than a 10 seed.

The top 3 point shooting team in the country this year failed to make the tournament.  In fact 6 of the 10 top three point shooting teams didn't make it.

[Floorslapper]

The top 3 point shooting team in the country this year failed to make the tournament.  In fact 6 of the 10 top three point shooting teams didn't make it.

Low majors I assume?  Can you link results, as I can't seem to find on Pomeroy?  Interesting stat nonetheless - as I'd heard eFG% reigns supreme.

[BM1090]

Low majors I assume?  Can you link results, as I can't seem to find on Pomeroy?  Interesting stat nonetheless - as I'd heard eFG% reigns supreme.

It's actually 8 of the top 10 shooting teams.

William and Mary
Purdue
Marquette
Michigan State
Weber St
Idaho
Lehigh
Toledo
St Marys
Vermont

EFG DOES reign supreme. But it's differential that's important. It doesn't matter if you shoot a high EFG% if you allow the other team to shoot a higher one.

[Floorslapper]

It's actually 8 of the top 10 shooting teams.

William and Mary
Purdue
Marquette
Michigan State
Weber St
Idaho
Lehigh
Toledo
St Marys
Vermont

EFG DOES reign supreme. But it's differential that's important. It doesn't matter if you shoot a high EFG% if you allow the other team to shoot a higher one.

Thanks - can you show what percentage 3 point shots accounted for, for each of the above teams?  Essentially the usage of the 3-ball?

Not surprised to see 7 low majors on this list as it is a different brand of basketball played at low major level - the defense generally isn't as good.  Major accomplishment to be a high major team and be so effective from 3.

[GGGG]

Marquette was 39th in the country this year if you divide 3FGA by FGA.  44.8% of its shots were from three.

Villanova was 16th at 46.6%
Creighton was 38th

[Floorslapper]

Marquette was 39th in the country this year if you divide 3FGA by FGA.  44.8% of its shots were from three.

Villanova was 16th at 46.6%
Creighton was 38th

Thanks.  Just saw how to get the info on Pomeroy.  Interesting to look at. 

[willie warrior]

I'm not gonna lie.   This is fun.

So lose the trending upward mantra you have been trying to sell, and embrace your going sideways comment. That is the accurate prediction.

[Golden Avalanche]

Thanks.  Just saw how to get the info on Pomeroy. Interesting to look at.

Is that code for "I was flat out misguided in my uninformed opinion but I won't admit it"?

[tower912]

So lose the trending upward mantra you have been trying to sell, and embrace your going sideways comment. That is the accurate prediction.

Willie, I have elaborated elsewhere on what I think of Wojo right now.   As far as these predictions and sideways versus upwards, I saw this as a rebuilding year even before Haanif left.  I also optimistically thought that Froling would be a difference maker.  Not what I wanted, but when I analyzed the team objectively before the season started, that is where arrived.
   I wanted to see growth among the young players in preparation for 18-19.  To me, that would be upward and not sideways.   So, from a big picture perspective, I am not bitter and angry.  Sure, individual losses are frustrating.   I don't know if Wojo takes Marquette to the promised land, but his age and lineage says you would be a damned fool to fire him now.

[Floorslapper]

Is that code for "I was flat out misguided in my uninformed opinion but I won't admit it"?

No.  Not at all.  We were only 1 of 5, Power 5 teams to be in the Top 20 in 3pt % and the Top 100 teams in Attempts.  The others:

Purdue
Michigan State
Kansas
Villanova

LOL.  Not quite our peers in W/L, NCAA seeding.  So, as you can see there is a strong correlation between being a high volume and high 3-point shooting percentage team, and elite performance at the high major level.

Sorry you asked your question?

[willie warrior]

Willie, I have elaborated elsewhere on what I think of Wojo right now.   As far as these predictions and sideways versus upwards, I saw this as a rebuilding year even before Haanif left.  I also optimistically thought that Froling would be a difference maker.  Not what I wanted, but when I analyzed the team objectively before the season started, that is where arrived.
   I wanted to see growth among the young players in preparation for 18-19.  To me, that would be upward and not sideways.   So, from a big picture perspective, I am not bitter and angry.  Sure, individual losses are frustrating.   I don't know if Wojo takes Marquette to the promised land, but his age and lineage says you would be a damned fool to fire him now.

Not asking you to be bitter or angry, just be realistic. We are not trending upward since our last 3 seasons have been 20-13, 19-13, and 19-13. This year with all Wojo's guys, and yet no dance in year 4. That is not trending upward, that is "going sideways". MU program has to be competing for BEast championships and making the dance frequently. Wojo has us mired in bottom tier of conference, and not making the dance. His recruiting is OK, but realistically, not good enough to be a stud program in Beast.
Many are tired of the excuses around this board for Wojo, and the performance of the program. So be realistic. In order for one to say we are trending upward, given all the excuses offered for Wojo, the team must have 23 plus wins next year, be top 2-3 in Beast and be a top 4 seed in the Dance. I am hopeful Wojo gets us there, but have not seen any progression yet to warrant that hope. That is why the blow torch should already be strapped to Wojo's ass.

[jesmu84]

Not asking you to be bitter or angry, just be realistic. We are not trending upward since our last 3 seasons have been 20-13, 19-13, and 19-13. This year with all Wojo's guys, and yet no dance in year 4. That is not trending upward, that is "going sideways". MU program has to be competing for BEast championships and making the dance frequently. Wojo has us mired in bottom tier of conference, and not making the dance. His recruiting is OK, but realistically, not good enough to be a stud program in Beast.
Many are tired of the excuses around this board for Wojo, and the performance of the program. So be realistic. In order for one to say we are trending upward, given all the excuses offered for Wojo, the team must have 23 plus wins next year, be top 2-3 in Beast and be a top 4 seed in the Dance. I am hopeful Wojo gets us there, but have not seen any progression yet to warrant that hope. That is why the blow torch should already be strapped to Wojo's ass.

You really don't understand composite rankings and strength of schedule