Preseason predictions

[Galway Eagle]

A little love from bleacherreport. Yes I know bleacher report is usually a joke but this actually did seem fairly well researched.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2733370-one-surprise-team-to-watch-in-each-major-college-basketball-conference

Some love from NCAA.com

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-09-19/college-basketball-all-sleeper-team-look-these-guys-bust-out

[Silkk the Shaka]

5 years to judge a coach man. I thought everybody knew!

Correction. It's 4to5yearstojudge now.

[Marcus92]

I see the 2017-18 schedule breaking down into 4 categories:

Near-automatic wins
We should have roughly a 95% probability to beat Mt. St. Mary's (H), E. Illinois (H), Chicago State (H), N. Illinois (H) and America (H). Expecting 5 wins here. Hopefully no surprises.

Strong favorite
Games in which Marquette is favored with a win probability of 65-90%. I see 8 games in this category: Georgia (H), Vermont (H), Georgetown (H), DePaul (H), Butler (H), Creighton (H), St. John's (H) and DePaul (A). Expect to win 6 out of 8 overall, and 4 out of 6 Big East games. Record: 11-2 (4-2).

Pick-em games
Games that could go either way, with basically 50-50 odds to win. This is the majority of the schedule, including VCU (N), Purdue (H), Wisconsin (A), Villanova (H), Xavier (H), Butler (A), Providence (H), Seton Hall (H), St. John's (A), Creighton (A) and Georgetown (A). And throw in the TBA games in Maui. Say we go 7-6 overall, 4-4 in conference. Record: 18-8 (8-6).

Strong underdog
Games in which Marquette is the underdog with a win probability of 20-40%. I see 4 games here: Providence (A), Villanova (A), Xavier (A) and Seton Hall (A). We win 1 out of 4. Record going into the Big East tournament: 19-11 (9-9). Pretty much right on the bubble, but probably dancing again.

Strengths of the team include 5 players (Howard, Rowsey, Cheatham, Hauser and Heldt) with starting experience and a lot of talent overall. Weaknesses include very little proven experience beyond the 5 mentioned above. Should be an interesting season.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think we get Wichita State in the second round and would be a strong underdog.  Same with Nova at home.

[Loose Cannon]

I see the 2017-18 schedule breaking down into 4 categories:

Near-automatic wins
We should have roughly a 95% probability to beat Mt. St. Mary's (H), E. Illinois (H), Chicago State (H), N. Illinois (H) and America (H). Expecting 5 wins here. Hopefully no surprises.

Strong favorite
Games in which Marquette is favored with a win probability of 65-90%. I see 8 games in this category: Georgia (H), Vermont (H), Georgetown (H), DePaul (H), Butler (H), Creighton (H), St. John's (H) and DePaul (A). Expect to win 6 out of 8 overall, and 4 out of 6 Big East games. Record: 11-2 (4-2).

Pick-em games
Games that could go either way, with basically 50-50 odds to win. This is the majority of the schedule, including VCU (N), Purdue (H), Wisconsin (A), Villanova (H), Xavier (H), Butler (A), Providence (H), Seton Hall (H), St. John's (A), Creighton (A) and Georgetown (A). And throw in the TBA games in Maui. Say we go 7-6 overall, 4-4 in conference. Record: 18-8 (8-6).

Strong underdog
Games in which Marquette is the underdog with a win probability of 20-40%. I see 4 games here: Providence (A), Villanova (A), Xavier (A) and Seton Hall (A). We win 1 out of 4. Record going into the Big East tournament: 19-11 (9-9). Pretty much right on the bubble, but probably dancing again.

Strengths of the team include 5 players (Howard, Rowsey, Cheatham, Hauser and Heldt) with starting experience and a lot of talent overall. Weaknesses include very little proven experience beyond the 5 mentioned above. Should be an interesting season.

I have a much more Love for Sacar than mentioned above.this team.

[MU82]

Strengths of the team include 5 players (Howard, Rowsey, Cheatham, Hauser and Heldt) with starting experience and a lot of talent overall. Weaknesses include very little proven experience beyond the 5 mentioned above. Should be an interesting season.

Now you're making me a little nervous by putting Heldt in the group with "proven experience." And Haani, too, for that matter.

[brewcity77]

Now you're making me a little nervous by putting Heldt in the group with "proven experience." And Haani, too, for that matter.

Heldt played double-digit minutes in 13/20 games starting with Big East play through the NCAA Tournament. He had a 100+ offensive rating in 10 of those 13 games. He didn't shoot much but was 18/26 from the field (69.2%) and averaged 3 rpg. He also became more integral as the season went on, playing double digit minutes in our last 7 games and 20+ in 5 of those 7.

I know it doesn't seem like that much, but Heldt is far, far more proven than Luke was when he took the starting role in the middle of the 2014-15 season.

[Jay Bee]

I know it doesn't seem like that much, but Heldt is far, far more proven than Luke was when he took the starting role in the middle of the 2014-15 season.

Not close. Luke far more 'proven' outside of stats at the same time. Very diff situations.

[MU82]

Heldt played double-digit minutes in 13/20 games starting with Big East play through the NCAA Tournament. He had a 100+ offensive rating in 10 of those 13 games. He didn't shoot much but was 18/26 from the field (69.2%) and averaged 3 rpg. He also became more integral as the season went on, playing double digit minutes in our last 7 games and 20+ in 5 of those 7.

I know it doesn't seem like that much, but Heldt is far, far more proven than Luke was when he took the starting role in the middle of the 2014-15 season.

I hope all of the MU fans who are very comfortable with Heldt as our starting center turn out to be right. Because right now, we have no other choice.

[Marcus92]

I think we get Wichita State in the second round and would be a strong underdog.  Same with Nova at home.

Good points. I may be overly optimistic, and one or two games will likely make or break the season. To the strengths of the team, I'd add Wojo and the coaching staff. Last season they took a very unbalanced team with a lot of new players (Howard, Hauser, Rowsey and Reinhardt) and found a way to get us into the tournament. I think they can do it again.

[Marcus92]

I have a much more Love for Sacar than mentioned above.

I hope Sacar is a total stud. Can't wait to see him on the court. But right now he's totally unproven and a complete unknown. I think improvement by Markus and Sam (along with Haanif and Matt) will be much more important to a successful season.

[GGGG]

Good points. I may be overly optimistic, and one or two games will likely make or break the season.

The season will not be made or broke before Thanksgiving.

[Marcus92]

The season will not be made or broke before Thanksgiving.

Agreed. And this team will have to get better throughout the season to make it back to the NCAAs. We just don't know what Harry, Theo, Ike, Greg, Jamal and Sacar will contribute at this point.

I think it's reasonable to assume we won't be worse defensively, and chances are we'll be better. How much is anyone's guess. This looks like a stronger rebounding team to me, as well. On the other hand, matching last season's offense will be a tall order.

[Loose Cannon]

I hope Sacar is a total stud. Can't wait to see him on the court. But right now he's totally unproven and a complete unknown. I think improvement by Markus and Sam (along with Haanif and Matt) will be much more important to a successful season.

I'm not looking for a total stud, but a Solid contributor.  I seem to remember at the end of last year Reinhardt was very complimentary of Sacar as he played the major role of being the Best player on the opposing practice team.  I expect he will have most of his time at the 2-3.

[brewcity77]

Not close. Luke far more 'proven' outside of stats at the same time. Very diff situations.

Luke had played one game against a high-major opponent when he played double-digit minutes. That was 10 scoreless minutes against Notre Dame as a freshman at Indiana. Heldt has done far more at the collegiate level, far, far, far, far, far more than Luke had done when he stepped into the starting role. Luke may have torn it up in practice, may have done great at a lower level, but as far as this level, D1 basketball, Matt's miles ahead of Luke in terms of when he was expected to start.

Also, I think it's worth noting that in the last 7 games of the season, when Matt took the starting role from Luke, he wasn't just getting the token start like we've seen in the past for Juan Anderson, Erik Williams, etc. He was also getting more minutes than Luke in 5 of the last 7 games of the season. So the staff actually trusted Matt to be out there more.

Matt isn't near as assertive as Luke, and I certainly don't think he'll put up points like that, but if he can limit his fouls I think he can be a 5/5 guy who plays solid defense and scores enough to keep the defense honest. He already earned the trust of the coaches, not sure why the fans are so reticent to give him that same trust.

[Marcus92]

Maybe the single biggest strength this season is the return of arguably the best 3-point shooting trio in the country.

Markus, Sam and Andrew combined to shoot 216-448 (48.2%) in 2016-17. That's nearly 7 made threes a game. It's one thing to cover a single deadeye shooter, another thing entirely to account for two or three spread around the perimeter. That can be tough to gameplan for.

If one or two other players can step up to hit 37-40% (as JaJuan and Katin did last year), at least that part of the offense will be in really good shape.

[Loose Cannon]

Because of the stiffer toughness in practice against Harry and Ed, I think Matt will contribute more than he did last year.

[fjm]

I'm not trying to get over excited but Sacar was mr basketball and a pretty high level recruit. He just came in with a good class and that class was followed up with a rockstar class.

I think he'll be a solid energy guy off the bench early in the season and depending on how Haani does, he could be starting early in OOC.

[Galway Eagle]

The 144 rankings has us at 49

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/15123

[bilsu]

I'm not trying to get over excited but Sacar was mr basketball and a pretty high level recruit. He just came in with a good class and that class was followed up with a rockstar class.

I think he'll be a solid energy guy off the bench early in the season and depending on how Haani does, he could be starting early in OOC.

He was also young for his class. In the little time he played he showed the ability to score. He is the type of player that was a very good candidate to redshirt.
He has talent, but was not quite ready to significantly contribute.

[barfolomew]

The most important aspect of Matt Heldt's improvement this offseason is that he can now play with his back to the basket.
And make it in the other basket.

http://www.tmj4.com/sports/marquette-player-matt-heldt-hits-half-court-shot-to-win-ice-cream-for-kids-twice

[Marcus92]

Don't know the methodology, but T-Rank projects MU to finish 10-8 in the Big East, tied with Providence for 4th in the conference. Best offensive efficiency, second worst defensive efficiency — in other words, pretty much a repeat of what we saw a year ago. I'd take that.

http://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/p/every-possession-counts.html

[Nukem2]

Don't know the methodology, but T-Rank projects MU to finish 10-8 in the Big East, tied with Providence for 4th in the conference. Best offensive efficiency, second worst defensive efficiency — in other words, pretty much a repeat of what we saw a year ago. I'd take that.

http://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/p/every-possession-counts.html

Wisconsin at 9-9 in Big 14 and 17-13 overall.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Don't know the methodology, but T-Rank projects MU to finish 10-8 in the Big East, tied with Providence for 4th in the conference. Best offensive efficiency, second worst defensive efficiency — in other words, pretty much a repeat of what we saw a year ago. I'd take that.

http://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/p/every-possession-counts.html

Did a quick search and it looks like they include transfers in the analysis (ex. Koulechov for Florida - what could have been! and Derrick Thornton for USC) plus a game by game breakdown.

I like it! Been waiting for Pomeroy's update for what seems like forever now. Just wish the color background on the team pages weren't so grating.

[Jay Bee]

Did a quick search and it looks like they include transfers in the analysis (ex. Koulechov for Florida - what could have been! and Derrick Thornton for USC) plus a game by game breakdown.

I like it! Been waiting for Pomeroy's update for what seems like forever now. Just wish the color background on the team pages weren't so grating.

I talked to Bart several weeks back & don't think this has changed: Mid-year transfers (e.g., Harry for us) are NOT included. So, it's a question of whether adding Harry to the model would help us or hurt us. I think it's a big plus, but the model doesn't know about him.