Hubris

[keefe]

Nobody wants Marquette to Dance more than I. But I am astonished at the presumption of many that we are guaranteed a spot in the Tourney.

Frankly, there is a very real chance we won't hear our name called on Sunday. Today was important and we failed to answer the call. I want Marquette to make the Show but know that we might very well we disappointed. 

[keefe]

Reading Scoop is like taking in the Literary Digest poll predicting Alf Landon.

[GGGG]

We aren't predicting Marquette in the tournament.  120 of the 121 models polled by the Bracket Matrix are.  It has nothing to do with hubris.  It has everything to do with looking at the evidence.

Marquette may not be called.  But it would be unprecedented in a way.  In the last five years, no team listed on that high a percentage of brackets has not been included.

[Class71]

Well George Gallup was right and old Alf lost to FDR. You may also be right on our chances for a bid. You are entitled to your opinion. But unlike GG'S scientific polling are your thoughts not just another opinion? No more no less?

[rocket surgeon]

i totally understand where our fellow "top gunner" is coming from and respect his position.  would have been nice for a couple of "daggers"-read. a couple more wins in the beast.  if other tournament underdogs climb back into the ring, TCU, indiana(GASP!!) et.al. that joey l. wasn't counting on, someone gets the "thanks for playing" phone call, aheyn"a?


  side note-keefe, i moved to surprise, about 5 minutes from lukes-absolutely tits watching you guys fly over my roof top!!  how do they like their coffee??  sorry, about 10-15 years too late for a backyard show from  my lovely bride however

[Goose]

One item is being missed by those looking at the "models" and feel it is a lock. Those models will change many times over next 48 hours. I mentioned yesterday that I thought we were 99.5% lock prior to yesterday's game and now much less.
It really is too bad that the team couldn't have closed the deal yesterday and take away any doubt. It would not shock me if MU's name is left off the list on Sunday.

[rocket surgeon]

One item is being missed by those looking at the "models" and feel it is a lock. Those models will change many times over next 48 hours. I mentioned yesterday that I thought we were 99.5% lock prior to yesterday's game and now much less.
It really is too bad that the team couldn't have closed the deal yesterday and take away any doubt. It would not shock me if MU's name is left off the list on Sunday.

completely agree-i wouldn't be doing the "happy dance" just yet although, just to be clear, i am as big a fan as ya'll and hope this is the start of another run with wojo to the next level, but...picked a bad time to stop sniffing glue...

[muwarrior69]

Well George Gallup was right and old Alf lost to FDR. You may also be right on our chances for a bid. You are entitled to your opinion. But unlike GG'S scientific polling are your thoughts not just another opinion? No more no less?

We were pretty sure, that you know who, was a lock based on scientific polling to be our current President and we all know how that turned out.

A crow in hand is worth two in the bush.

[Windyplayer]

One item is being missed by those looking at the "models" and feel it is a lock. Those models will change many times over next 48 hours. I mentioned yesterday that I thought we were 99.5% lock prior to yesterday's game and now much less.
It really is too bad that the team couldn't have closed the deal yesterday and take away any doubt. It would not shock me if MU's name is left off the list on Sunday.

Goose and Keefe, I love when you guys post on Scoop, but this thread is a bit of a head scratcher for me. You guys fail to cite any sources in support of your concern when there is overwhelming evidence out there that we are still a lock. See Lunardi. Frankly, last night was hugely beneficial as nearly all the bubble teams took it on the chin. Yes, a win would have likely given us a 10 seed or higher. Now we're still in play for a 10, more probabe an 11 with the chance of being shipped off to Dayton. What we're talking about here is one more win against a team that's a little better than us followed by us being throttled by 30--it's not like we lost to DePaul or St Johns again. The optics of 20 wins are an illusion this year. Several teams will get in with fewer.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Left unsaid here is perspective. Because of the new NBA CBA, many left early in the past couple of years to cash in who may not have been ready, depleting the college ranks of young talent. Transfers and graduate transfers moved from mid and low majors up to fill voids. Result, no clear elite teams, softest bubble in years, no bevy of bid stealers, a lot of parity/mediocrity.

Constrast that with MU tradionalists posting here, who don't see a NCAA quality team.

End of the day, MU is in, as imperfect as it is. Embrace it.

[jsglow]

Left unsaid here is perspective. Because of the new NBA CBA, many left early in the past couple of years to cash in who may not have been ready, depleting the college ranks of young talent. Transfers and graduate transfers moved from mid and low majors up to fill voids. Result, no clear elite teams, softest bubble in years, no bevy of bid stealers, a lot of parity/mediocrity.

Constrast that with MU tradionalists posting here, who don't see a NCAA quality team.

End of the day, MU is in, as imperfect as it is. Embrace it.

That's a really good point.  Kids are even leaving early now simply to play pro ball either in the D League or Europe.  Vander is a great example of that in MU's recent past.

[wadesworld]

Scoop is the best. Every time MU reaches whatever goal posters say MU needs to reach to make the Tourney the goalposts get shifted and MU just didn't get it done when the opportunity presented itself.

MU is dancing.

[Goose]

Folks

I think they are in, but things can still happen. A win yesterday would have taken away any doubt I have now. Would say I am 80% confident they are in. My only point is I would not be completely shocked if it went against them after yesterday's loss.

[CreanLover]

Nobody wants Marquette to Dance more than I. But I am astonished at the presumption of many that we are guaranteed a spot in the Tourney.

Frankly, there is a very real chance we won't hear our name called on Sunday. Today was important and we failed to answer the call. I want Marquette to make the Show but know that we might very well we disappointed.

I have to agree.

There was one year in the early to mid 90's when we were firmly on the bubble. Not only did we get left out, the NIT snubbed us, too. I pray we don't have a repeat.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Really ironic that keefe is the one talking about hubris.

[Hards Alumni]

Well George Gallup was right and old Alf lost to FDR. You may also be right on our chances for a bid. You are entitled to your opinion. But unlike GG'S scientific polling are your thoughts not just another opinion? No more no less?

apples to oranges.

[GGGG]

Really ironic the keefe is the one talking about hubris.

That is one solid point right there.

Scoop is the best. Every time MU reaches whatever goal posters say MU needs to reach to make the Tourney the goalposts get shifted and MU just didn't get it done when the opportunity presented itself.

MU is dancing.

And that is another.  Keefe was talking about a mediocre product just a couple of weeks ago.  Mediocre teams don't make the NCAA.  So time to move the goalpost!!!

[muguru]

They may be in..but avoiding Dayton is the key.

[fjm]

Really ironic the keefe is the one talking about hubris.

Yup. +1

[Galway Eagle]

Really ironic the keefe is the one talking about hubris.

Hah good one to wake up to.

The posts that I'm reading on here seem to be saying "I don't think we hear our name called but just so nobody can say I told you so I'm going to say I hope we do"

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Looking at facts and using deductive reasoning is not hubris. Yes there is a chance we could get left out. There's also a chance Nova could get left out. Now obviously their case is a lot more solid than ours but the point is you can't take the human element out of the decision. Of course, the human element could also mean we are sitting at 7 seed right now and are worrying for nothing.

Given that the human element of the committee is just as likely to overseed us as underseed us, all we are left with is the cold hard facts. The facts are:

Over 99% of bracketologists (including Lunardi, historically the most accurate) think that there are currently 7 or 8 teams between us and the bubble.

Included in those 7 or 8 teams is 4 teams who have already lost their last game. Ergo, they would be sacrificed to the NIT before us.

The top 4 teams on the outside of the bubble include 3 more sitting ducks. Meaning that 3 of the most likely candidates to take us out of the tournament cannot imporve their resumes any further.

To demonstrate how much distance there is between Marquette and the First Four Out, one simply needs to look at Illinois. A 17 win team, with a losing conference record from a weak B!G, with a worse RPI than Marquette, a KP score almost 40 points lowers, 5 less top 50 wins, a loss to Rutgers, and 2 losses to Penn State.

So given that there is only 1 team in the next four out that is still alive, and there are 4 teams behind Marquette that can't improve their resumes anymore, that gives us a pretty healthy buffer.

There are three teams in the Next Four Out that are still alive. Keep in mind that these are teams with resumes worse than Illinois, so they have a lot of distance to cover. I'm not sure any of them can catch Marquette without winning their conference tournaments.

So that leaves bid thieves. There are 6 conferences capable of producing bid thief from Marquette. At this point, four bid thieves would have to occur to push Marquette out. That number will go up if teams behind us like X, Vandy, Rhode Island, and K-State lose.

All this to say, the facts paint a pretty good picture. Yes there is a human element that can't be predicted. But we have set ourselves up in a pretty good position. Barring a lot of things going against us, we will either be in the tournament or one of the bigger snubs in tournament history.

[Sheriff]

When I saw the title of this thread I thought it would be about Syracuse.

[fjm]

Hah good one to wake up to.

The posts that I'm reading on here seem to be saying "I don't think we hear our name called but just so nobody can say I told you so I'm going to say I hope we do"

Gotta cover their butts that way they can say they were right but they were skeptical.
Or I was skeptical, I was just hopeful!

It's the "I'm not saying, I'm just saying" of Scoop.

[GGGG]

Look here is who is behind us right now in the latest Bracket Matrix:

Seton Hall:  Beat MU yesterday, plays Nova in semis
Michigan Sate:  Won yesterday, plays Minnesota in quaters.
Xavier:  Beat Butler, plays Creighton in semis.
Wake Forest:  Lost to VPI
USC:  Lost to UCLA
Middle Tennessee:  Won yesterday, plays UTEP in semis
Vanderbilt: Won yesterday, plays Florida in quarters.
Syracuse:  Lost
Rhode Island:  Plays St. Bonaventure in quaters.

Here is who is out:
Kansas State:  Beat Baylor in quarters, plays West Virginia in semis
Illinois State:  Done
Illinois:  Lost to Michigan
Iowa:  Lost to Indiana
Houston:  Plays UConn in quarters
Cal:  Plays Oregon in semis
Georgia:  Plays Kentucky in quarters.


Houston and Georgia pretty much have to win their tournaments to get in.  Cal might be able to sneak in with a win today and a loss to UCLA.  Kansas State put itself in good position by beating Baylor, but would likely be in if they beat West Virginia.

Furthermore, if you look at the Bracket Matrix even further, only 19 of the 121 have MU as an 11 or 12 seed.  101 brackets have MU as a 10 or better.

IMO, it would take a monumental number of upsets and unexpected tourney runs for us to even come close to being on the bubble.  And even then, there are other schools that should be way more nervous than Marquette.

[nyg]

Vinnie, sill must be sleepy.  X beat Butler.