MLB 2017 Season

[MerrittsMustache]

As much as I'm trying to tell myself otherwise, I think the Cubs are in trouble tonight. They really don't have anyone who has hit Gio Gonzalez well historically. Jay is 4-11 and Contreras is 1-2 but no one else is hitting better than .216. Gio gave up 2 HRs in Game 2 but only 1 other hit. The Nats also have Scherzer available for an inning or two out of the pen. The Cubs tend to rely on the long ball but they may need to manufacture a couple runs tonight and Hendricks is going to need to be lights out. In addition, with Maddon vs Dusty, it's really anybody's guess as to what bizarre strategies could be implemented.

Taking fandom out of it, it's really been a great series so far regardless of who wins tonight. From a Cubs fan perspective, as tense as it has been, it's been far more enjoyable than previous postseasons since there's not that "here we go again" hanging over the franchise. It should be a lot fun!

[StillAWarrior]

Well, damn.

On the bright side, that frees my evenings up quite a bit over the next few weeks.

[muwarrior69]

I didn't pick the Diamondbacks, but I certainly didn't see the Yankees in the ALCS.

Neither did I, especially with Judge and Sanchez going only 5 hits combined in the series.

[JWags85]

As much as I'm trying to tell myself otherwise, I think the Cubs are in trouble tonight. They really don't have anyone who has hit Gio Gonzalez well historically. Jay is 4-11 and Contreras is 1-2 but no one else is hitting better than .216. Gio gave up 2 HRs in Game 2 but only 1 other hit. The Nats also have Scherzer available for an inning or two out of the pen. The Cubs tend to rely on the long ball but they may need to manufacture a couple runs tonight and Hendricks is going to need to be lights out. In addition, with Maddon vs Dusty, it's really anybody's guess as to what bizarre strategies could be implemented.

Beyond that, I'm concerned because the approach at the plate yesterday was AWFUL.  Taking nothing away from Strasburg who was lights out, the Cubs had little patience and were fanning at everything.  I dont think a single of Strasburg's Ks were looking.

Combine that with a series that they havent really hit all that well, save for a few timely spots, and I'm more than a bit anxious.  Especially when the Indians showed what happens when a great team gets cold bats.

[MU82]

I lost the capacity to "feel sorry" for multimillionaire athletes and coaches long ago. (For on-field stuff; I still can feel sorry for them if they experience real personal tragedy).

But I did find myself feeling a little sorry for Joe Girardi, who screwed up royally in G2. Even though he owned up to the mistake, he was getting savaged by Yankee fans, who of course have the knee-jerk impulse of "fire da bum."

I also happen to believe that Girardi is legitimately a good guy.

So even though my pick to win it all is now gowne, I am happy for Girardi that his team "had my back," as he put it, and pulled out the series.

[MUBurrow]

The real deciding factor in tonight's game will be good Gio or bad Gio, how Dusty manages whichever one shows up, and how much Scherzer can/needs to give the Nats. Given that two of those factors are dependent on the whims of Gio Gonzalez and Dusty managing his pitchers in a way that makes sense, I'd be pretty optimistic if I were a Cubs fan.

[TallTitan34]

Are we sure the Cubs are facing Gio?  It's noon and the Nats still haven't named a starter.

[brewcity77]

Are we sure the Cubs are facing Gio?  It's noon and the Nats still haven't named a starter.

Can't imagine they'd go with Roark if there's any way Gio is available.

[MerrittsMustache]

Beyond that, I'm concerned because the approach at the plate yesterday was AWFUL.  Taking nothing away from Strasburg who was lights out, the Cubs had little patience and were fanning at everything.  I dont think a single of Strasburg's Ks were looking.

This is very true. Only 1 of Strasburg's 12 Ks was looking (against Arrieta) and I don't think he recorded a single K on a fastball. The pitches were all low and tailing down. The Cubs struck out at least 4 times on balls in the dirt. Only 19 of the 72 strikes that Strasburg threw were called strikes. Oddly, Arrieta also had 19 called strikes, but on just 53 strikes thrown. Strasburg didn't have great command but the Cubs were chasing.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I didn't pick the Diamondbacks, but I certainly didn't see the Yankees in the ALCS.

I did, but I'm a life long always overly optimistic Yankee fan.

[mikekinsellaMVP]

Oh, and the Indians have lost 6 straight gamessage in which they could have eliminated their competition.  Ouch.

It gets worse.  (Sorry, SaW.)

In 1999, they lost the ALDS to the Red Sox after being up 2-0.

In 2001, they lost the ALDS to the Mariners after being up 2-1.

In 2007, they lost the ALCS to the Red Sox after being up 3-1.

In 2013, they lost the AL WC game to the Rays.

And we know what's happened the last two years.

If you're keeping track at home, that's six straight playoff appearances where they've been eliminated in a winner-take-all game.  In three of those appearances, they gave up three straight wins to an opponent on the brink of elimination.  Their record in opponent elimination games over this span is 3-17.

That's rough.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

This is very true. Only 1 of Strasburg's 12 Ks was looking (against Arrieta) and I don't think he recorded a single K on a fastball. The pitches were all low and tailing down. The Cubs struck out at least 4 times on balls in the dirt. Only 19 of the 72 strikes that Strasburg threw were called strikes. Oddly, Arrieta also had 19 called strikes, but on just 53 strikes thrown. Strasburg didn't have great command but the Cubs were chasing.

Strasburg absolutely had great command, IMO.  His change-up and curveball are elite pitches and he was putting them where he wanted to. 

[MerrittsMustache]

Strasburg absolutely had great command, IMO.  His change-up and curveball are elite pitches and he was putting them where he wanted to.

You're right. I should have said that he wasn't pounding the strike zone but was still getting strikes because the Cubs were chasing.

[buckchuckler]

It gets worse.  (Sorry, SaW.)

In 1999, they lost the ALDS to the Red Sox after being up 2-0.

In 2001, they lost the ALDS to the Mariners after being up 2-1.

In 2007, they lost the ALCS to the Red Sox after being up 3-1.

In 2013, they lost the AL WC game to the Rays.

And we know what's happened the last two years.

If you're keeping track at home, that's six straight playoff appearances where they've been eliminated in a winner-take-all game.  In three of those appearances, they gave up three straight wins to an opponent on the brink of elimination.  Their record in opponent elimination games over this span is 3-17.

That's rough.

Double ouch.

[JWags85]

You're right. I should have said that he wasn't pounding the strike zone but was still getting strikes because the Cubs were chasing.

In the Dodgers game on Monday night, there was a shot of Bellinger in the dugout watching past ABs against one of the DBacks relievers he would likely be facing coming up.  That kept popping my head as the Cubs were chasing changeups out of the zone OVER AND OVER.  Surely there should have been adjustments made by the players, if not the coaching staffs.  This was the second time seeing him in a week.  Very frustrating.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

In the Dodgers game on Monday night, there was a shot of Bellinger in the dugout watching past ABs against one of the DBacks relievers he would likely be facing coming up.  That kept popping my head as the Cubs were chasing changeups out of the zone OVER AND OVER.  Surely there should have been adjustments made by the players, if not the coaching staffs.  This was the second time seeing him in a week.  Very frustrating.

If a pitch is that good, though, sometimes there is nothing you can do about it.  See Rivera and his cutter and Hoffman and his change up.  Granted, both of those guys were closers.  I was at the game yesterday so I didn't see replays of all those swinging strikes until today.  The pitch looks like fastball and just dives out of the zone.  He made good hitters look silly numerous times - I'm really not sure what adjustments could have been made other than not swing and hope for the best. 

[Jockey]

In the Dodgers game on Monday night, there was a shot of Bellinger in the dugout watching past ABs against one of the DBacks relievers he would likely be facing coming up.  That kept popping my head as the Cubs were chasing changeups out of the zone OVER AND OVER.  Surely there should have been adjustments made by the players, if not the coaching staffs.  This was the second time seeing him in a week.  Very frustrating.

It just doesn't work that way. His stuff was unhittable. A very good pitcher with his best stuff. There were no adjustments to be made.

Strasburg averaged 95.4 mph with his four-seam fastball on the evening. His changeup was coming in at 88.6 mph on average.

Exact same motion on both pitches. Except, one rises in the zone, the other falls off the table.

It had nothing to do with what Cubs hitters were doing wrong. It was all about Strasburg.


Sorry. You beat me to it, VBMG.

[buckchuckler]

Absolutely fair thought experiment, but this Brewers fan is okay with things as they stand. The payroll thing gets tossed around a lot, for better and worse. The worse is when small market fans use it as some sort of badge of honor to try to portray themselves as "better" fans than fans who happen to root for a high payroll ceiling team. It gets very Cardinal-esque in a hurry.

But when you back away from the emotional part of Milwaukee's financial situation, I think they need to hoard their stockpiled depth on the farm for now, and couldn't afford to trade even from depth this year. The real benefit of having a lot of money is knowing you'll be able to use it to shore up the 5-6-7 spots in the lineup, the 3-4 spots in the rotation, and the pen. When you look at the 2011 Crew, those batters/pitchers were guys like McGehee, Lucroy, Hart, Gomez, Morgan (all homegrown, 1 for 1 trades, or reclamation projects) and Randy Wolf, Narveson (amazing how healthy the rotation was until Marcum's arm fell off), and maybe the best cobbled together bullpen I've ever seen - Hawkins, Saito, Loe, Axford. They used their meager $ and their prospects for the type of pitchers small-market teams can't afford the injury risk to pay - Greinke, Marcum, K-Rod when closers still got big money, even CC going all the way back.

So even if they deal from depth this year and leave, say, their top 5 prospects alone, you have to assume (hope) they're probably trading away something along the lines of (in 2018-19 terms) one SP, one solid bullpen pitcher, one 5-6 hitter, and a couple pieces that could be used to get a a top line starter and a #3-ish starter. The problem is the Brewers can't afford to chuck market deals at a bunch of guys like Headley, Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Lester, Chapman, etc. So I think its vital they be patient waiting for their window, because in aggregate $$ and prospect capital, it can only realistically be about two years long, and they have to go all-in when the biggest mass of their current prospects are hitting their prime.

So this all makes a ton of sense.  Thank you for the perspective.  In a way, some of this would make moves like Kahnle, Robertson, and Quintana even more logical.  Where the Brewers won't give out those market deals, a guy like Q was well below as was Kahnle and both are controlled at least fairly long term.

I completely get what the Brewers did and why.  I guess I am just trying to get some insight as to what my team may be going through in the next couple years. 

[buckchuckler]

In the Dodgers game on Monday night, there was a shot of Bellinger in the dugout watching past ABs against one of the DBacks relievers he would likely be facing coming up.  That kept popping my head as the Cubs were chasing changeups out of the zone OVER AND OVER.  Surely there should have been adjustments made by the players, if not the coaching staffs.  This was the second time seeing him in a week.  Very frustrating.

I always thought the same about Kerry Wood.  If hitters never would have swung, he would have walked every batter he ever faced. 

His stuff is so good that his pitches look like strikes, then they tail out of the zone. 

[muwarrior69]

Double ouch.

They must be cursed.

[JWags85]

It just doesn't work that way. His stuff was unhittable. A very good pitcher with his best stuff. There were no adjustments to be made.

Strasburg averaged 95.4 mph with his four-seam fastball on the evening. His changeup was coming in at 88.6 mph on average.

Exact same motion on both pitches. Except, one rises in the zone, the other falls off the table.

It had nothing to do with what Cubs hitters were doing wrong. It was all about Strasburg.


Sorry. You beat me to it, VBMG.

I'm not saying they were going to magically start hitting him over all the park.  I know how a changeup works, thanks for the baseball lesson.  As I mentioned earlier, the only strike out looking was from Arrieta.  The rest were swinging strikes.  Then you go back and look at see that from the second inning on, the Cubs had only 2 ABs where they saw more than 5 pitches.  They weren't working counts and its not like they were taking called strike 3s as corners were getting painted.  As the game progressed, they got frustrated and chased.  Thats what I was upset with.  I'm taking nothing away from the pitching performance, but he definitely feasted on the fact that the Cubs got impatient and chased anything that looked like a fastball.  A number of those "changeups that fall off the table" wouldn't have been strikes if they had been a straight fastball.  They started low or out of the zone.

It was a frustrating and annoying game to watch all around.  And I'm more concerned that their plate habits will continue into tonight.

[Jockey]

I'm not saying they were going to magically start hitting him over all the park.  I know how a changeup works, thanks for the baseball lesson.  As I mentioned earlier, the only strike out looking was from Arrieta.  The rest were swinging strikes.  Then you go back and look at see that from the second inning on, the Cubs had only 2 ABs where they saw more than 5 pitches.  They weren't working counts and its not like they were taking called strike 3s as corners were getting painted.  As the game progressed, they got frustrated and chased.  Thats what I was upset with.  I'm taking nothing away from the pitching performance, but he definitely feasted on the fact that the Cubs got impatient and chased anything that looked like a fastball.  A number of those "changeups that fall off the table" wouldn't have been strikes if they had been a straight fastball.  They started low or out of the zone.

It was a frustrating and annoying game to watch all around.  And I'm more concerned that their plate habits will continue into tonight.

I hope it didn't come across as me saying you didn't know what was happening. I read your posts and it's obvious you know baseball. My point was that it didn't matter. No team hits a pitcher when he has stuff like Strasbourg had.

As far as what you would like to see tonite, I think you are right and they will be much more patient.

[jsglow]

Michael A. Tater.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Michael A. Tater.

He's definitely juicing.

[jsglow]

Great comeback and some very sloppy Nats play.