Mind Boggling Stat

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Jay Bee tweeted this during the game. I still can't quite believe it. I was hoping someone with a better understanding could explain to me how its possible.

#mubb opponents shooting 74% eFG% on unguarded catch and shoots. No other BEast team allowing more than 56%.

If I'm reading this correctly, Marquette is the most unlucky team in the Big East. The only thing I can think of to explain it is that we give up more unguarded catch and shoot threes so the eFG% goes up.

[#UnleashSean]

I feel like I read this in a post earlier today. Am I crazy?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I feel like I read this in a post earlier today. Am I crazy?

You did. I posted it in the game thread. But I think it got lost in PFs and Sand Knits back and forth.

[#UnleashSean]

You did. I posted it in the game thread. But I think it got lost in PFs and Sand Knits back and forth.

Wish those two would get banned. Theres a huge difference between pointing out a flaw, and hammering a guy for anything.

As for the stat, I wonder how much of it has to do with Marquette leaving people open way more then other teams.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Wish those two would get banned. Theres a huge difference between pointing out a flaw, and hammering a guy for anything.

As for the stat, I wonder how much of it has to do with Marquette leaving people open way more then other teams.

This☝️☝☝☝

What is considered open against most teams is a step against MU no one is within 10 feet and you had the opportunity to get ur feet set n step into ur shot.  Or today most of the wide open shots were actually dunks. 

[wadesworld]

Wish those two would get banned. Theres a huge difference between pointing out a flaw, and hammering a guy for anything.

As for the stat, I wonder how much of it has to do with Marquette leaving people open way more then other teams.

This☝️☝☝☝

What is considered open against most teams is a step against MU no one is within 10 feet and you had the opportunity to get ur feet set n step into ur shot.  Or today most of the wide open shots were actually dunks. 

The stat has nothing to do with the amount of open shots a team gets.  It has everything to do with the percentage of open shots that teams make on Marquette.  So regardless of the number of those shots Marquette is giving up, our opponents are making those shots at a much higher clip against us than any other Big East team is having their opponents make the same shot against them.

[#UnleashSean]

The stat has nothing to do with the amount of open shots a team gets.  It has everything to do with the percentage of open shots that teams make on Marquette.  So regardless of the number of those shots Marquette is giving up, our opponents are making those shots at a much higher clip against us than any other Big East team is having their opponents make the same shot against them.

There is an average at work though. I might make 70% of wide open shots. But might only make 1/2 of them at the start. When I continue to get open shots, I may make more.

[GGGG]

There is an average at work though. I might make 70% of wide open shots. But might only make 1/2 of them at the start. When I continue to get open shots, I may make more.

I think there is something to this.  I can't believe that is just luck. 

[cheebs09]

Could it be we are leaving the wrong people open? Since it seems our defense is always on its heels, our opponent knows it can make the extra pass to one of their top shooters.

[Jay Bee]

I think it's largely luck and partly the guys we have closing out impose little fright/concern into the open shooter, whereas some longer/more athletic teams/defenders would.

We actually don't give up a ridiculous amount of unguarded catch and shoot attempts compared to other teams. It's just that they make them at an absurd rate.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

The stat has nothing to do with the amount of open shots a team gets.  It has everything to do with the percentage of open shots that teams make on Marquette.  So regardless of the number of those shots Marquette is giving up, our opponents are making those shots at a much higher clip against us than any other Big East team is having their opponents make the same shot against them.

Yep never said anything about the number i spoke to degree of openess.  U would think one could comprehend that.  Smh

[wadesworld]

Yep never said anything about the number i spoke to degree of openess.  U would think one could comprehend that.  Smh

Lol. It's unguarded catch and shoot. Unguarded. "Degree of openness" = open.

[Dr. Blackheart]

[Jay Bee]

Added a little more context.... here: http://latenighthoops.com/marquettes-catch-shoot-defense-unlucky/#.WKCXAG8rLIU

[WarriorFan]

It's not luck.  It's because they are SOOOOOO open.  When Fish goes out and chases a guard, someone, usually JJJ (careless) or Hauser (slow) needs to collapse to the middle and leaves an opposing man open in the corner.  Opposing teams see this (now they know it and scheme for it) and get an open 3.  Hauser is too slow to close out and JJJ doesn't really try.  It is 100% Fisher's fault, or it's WOJO's fault if he's telling fisher to chase for so long. 

What I'd like to see is this stat for Heldt's time vs. Fisher because Heldt recovers much faster to the center, allowing the help man to move back to position.

There is not one other big east center chasing guards over picks like fisher is.  Why?  Because it doesn't work.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It's not luck.  It's because they are SOOOOOO open.  When Fish goes out and chases a guard, someone, usually JJJ (careless) or Hauser (slow) needs to collapse to the middle and leaves an opposing man open in the corner.  Opposing teams see this (now they know it and scheme for it) and get an open 3.  Hauser is too slow to close out and JJJ doesn't really try.  It is 100% Fisher's fault, or it's WOJO's fault if he's telling fisher to chase for so long. 

What I'd like to see is this stat for Heldt's time vs. Fisher because Heldt recovers much faster to the center, allowing the help man to move back to position.

There is not one other big east center chasing guards over picks like fisher is.  Why?  Because it doesn't work.

Again the stat is unguarded catch and shoots. Nobody is near the shooter. I think Jay Bee is correct that because of our lack of length we need to get even closer than most teams on close outs to disrupt the shot. But a lot of it is luck as well. Can you imagine how high that number would be without the Nova game? They couldn't hit the broadside of a barn.

[g0lden3agle]

Again the stat is unguarded catch and shoots. Nobody is near the shooter. I think Jay Bee is correct that because of our lack of length we need to get even closer than most teams on close outs to disrupt the shot. But a lot of it is luck as well. Can you imagine how high that number would be without the Nova game? They couldn't hit the broadside of a barn.

Wouldn't getting closer on close outs to disrupt the shot result in reducing the quantity of catch and shoots that are qualified as "unguarded"?

[brewcity77]

Wouldn't getting closer on close outs to disrupt the shot result in reducing the quantity of catch and shoots that are qualified as "unguarded"?

Sure, but every team in the country gives up unguarded catch and shoots. Even the best defensive team will allow some. You want to limit them, but they'll still happen.

[GoldenDieners32]

It's not luck.  It's because they are SOOOOOO open.  When Fish goes out and chases a guard, someone, usually JJJ (careless) or Hauser (slow) needs to collapse to the middle and leaves an opposing man open in the corner.  Opposing teams see this (now they know it and scheme for it) and get an open 3.  Hauser is too slow to close out and JJJ doesn't really try.  It is 100% Fisher's fault, or it's WOJO's fault if he's telling fisher to chase for so long. 

What I'd like to see is this stat for Heldt's time vs. Fisher because Heldt recovers much faster to the center, allowing the help man to move back to position.

There is not one other big east center chasing guards over picks like fisher is.  Why?  Because it doesn't work.

So you are saying JJ is careless and doesn't try? OK

[g0lden3agle]

Sure, but every team in the country gives up unguarded catch and shoots. Even the best defensive team will allow some. You want to limit them, but they'll still happen.

Right, I guess my point was that a more effective close out should move catch and shoots from "unguarded" to "guarded", and thus have no impact on the eFG% of "unguarded" catch and shoots (at least based on my current understanding of what an "unguarded" catch and shoot is).

[Jay Bee]

Right, I guess my point was that a more effective close out should move catch and shoots from "unguarded" to "guarded", and thus have no impact on the eFG% of "unguarded" catch and shoots (at least based on my current understand of what an "unguarded" catch and shoot is).

Tried to make it clear, but we're good in that regard

[g0lden3agle]

Tried to make it clear, but we're good in that regard

"we're good in that regard" means the quantity is not concerning (based on first bullet point in "Other..."), right?  I get that part but what I'm still confused by is people suggesting that better close-outs would result in lowering this specific eFG% metric.  As you explained in the article isn't the only explanation (other than that this is an entirely luck based phenomenon) is that the opponent might be feeling good about themselves or more comfortable when they're playing us?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

"we're good in that regard" means the quantity is not concerning (based on first bullet point in "Other..."), right?  I get that part but what I'm still confused by is people suggesting that better close-outs would result in lowering this specific eFG% metric.  As you explained in the article isn't the only explanation (other than that this is an entirely luck based phenomenon) is that the opponent might be feeling good about themselves or more comfortable when they're playing us?

My point was that if you are a shooter and are unguarded buy see a 6"8 guy running to close out on the shot, you might be more worried than if 5"11 Andrew Rowsey is running to close out on you. I don't mean that the defender is going to block it, just psychologically a shooter might rush a shot if they see a shot blocker coming their direction.

[PGsHeroes32]

Wish those two would get banned. Theres a huge difference between pointing out a flaw, and hammering a guy for anything.

As for the stat, I wonder how much of it has to do with Marquette leaving people open way more then other teams.

I don't hammer "a guy" idiot.

I point out poor play.

Whether it's JJJ or Katin or Sam.

Good lord

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I don't hammer "a guy" idiot.

I point out poor play.

Whether it's JJJ or Katin or Sam.

Good lord

Point out bad play is "Luke missed a dunk."

Hammer a guy is "WTF is Luke doing??"

You can do what you want, but delivery does matter. If you change how you say things, people won't react in that way. Its pretty simple.