Bubble Watch

[Golden Avalanche]

Dude, you're wrong here.  Its National MU day.  The place will be rocking.

I sincerely hope. I've been to many of these days, notably the ones where MU didn't have a cloud hanging over it, and it isn't always a raucous crowd with a person in every single seat.

I hate to break it to you put everything college and pro in attendance goes by tickets sold. By your standard nothing would be soldout. That includes the Packers and the Super Bowl.

As I wrote, this discussion has gone on endlessly here. No need to be bogged down in it. But a tickets sold sellout where 15,928 people attend isn't the same crowd as having 18,717 actual people in the building.

The no-shows are usually season-ticket holders that skip the lower profile games.  People that bought an individual ticket for just this game are more likely to show up.  It's NMD, and a lot of people travel here for the game.  Try looking for a hotel downtown that night.  With a long afternoon for pre-game festivities the crowd will be ready, I'm just hoping the team gives us something to cheer for.

You mean lower profile games like Butler? Arena shots of that game showed plenty of open seats in the upper and lower sections. Only 12,500 listed for that game. Was it a tickets sold 12,500 or an actual attendance of 12,500? I know, I know, an 8 PM tip on a weeknight is just too tough for people to attend.......

Again, as I wrote earlier, I agree the crowd will have plenty of time to be "ready" for the game but that doesn't always translate. If MU doesn't hit nine 3FG in the first half and slogs through a tight one for 30 minutes, the crowd will grow more tense than raucous.

Oh, the bubble is the worst its been in history. (To keep things on topic)

[dw3dw3dw3]

Yes there may be some rows in the upper corners not filled. X may keep the crowd out of the game. The refs may decide to takeover.  The point is there won't be anyone who can say, MU didn't have a great home court advantage potential against X. Bringing it on the road just needs to be a part of your DNA as a team. Bringing it at home, fighting for every rebound, fighting through screens, diving for loose balls for 40 min will be easier with 18k engaged fans pushing you.

If the team doesn't bring it or at least show fight (win or lose), it will be a clear message that Wojo is being tuned out. If the shots don't go in, they don't go in. However, you can still compete at an elite level regardless. I haven't seen that a whole lot this year as a team.

Before the Butler game, Diener was giving a talk and said they believed they were the best offensive team in the country. Obviously that's not the case, but it almost seemed like they believed their formula with this team for a tourney berth was just to try and score 90 every game. I don't know how much defense and intangibles/fighting are stressed during practice hours, but I hope they get a healthy dose this week. I think the gains the team can make there are worth double the gains the team can get from trying to "fix" the offense. Just my opinion though, I just want them to compete more. Don't want them to lose, but it's more more bearable when you see them giving everything they have.

[bradley center bat]

As I wrote, this discussion has gone on endlessly here. No need to be bogged down in it. But a tickets sold sellout where 15,928 people attend isn't the same crowd as having 18,717 actual people in the building.

  You just need help on your wording. You want people who have a ticket to show up at the game. The example you list, is still a sell-out. You just want limited no-shows.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

As I've said over and over again, as long as our resume is demonstrably better than the last team IN, we're ok.

Right now that's Seton Hall: 15-9, 5-7 in conference, wins @ Iowa, vs. Cal, vs. South Carolina, losses @SJU, @PC, and vs. Stanford

Marquette: 15-10, 6-7 in conference, wins @Georgia, @Creighton, vs. Nova, losses @SJU, vs PC, Pitt (N)

We're ahead of them in top wins and have roughly the same in terms of bad losses.  We split our matchups and are still ahead in the standings.  The two resumes are pretty close right now.  If we can stay above Seton Hall, we should be ok.

Oh, and Clemson is still "IN" at 3-9 in conference.

Snapshot of a few other teams on the bubble, but in the tournament, per Lunardi's latest.  Rankings are RPI* / Kenpom. Top 50 wins and worst losses per RPI*. *RPI per ESPN RPI - I know this isn't the best, but for ease of info, I am using it.   

Marquette (11 seed - last 4 in):
15-10
RPI: 82
Kenpom: 42
Conference Record: 6-7
2-4 vs. RPI top 25
3-5 vs. RPI top 50
6-9 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: vs. Nova (2/3), @ Creighton (17/21), vs. Seton Hall (45/55), vs. Georgia (51*/50)
Worst Losses: @ SJU (114/83), vs. Providence (71/60)


Arkansas (11 seed - last 4 in):
18-7
RPI: 42
Kenpom: 57
Conference Record: 7-5
0-3 vs. RPI top 25
2-5 vs. RPI top 50
7-5 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: UT Arlington (48/70), @ Tennessee (44/41)
Worst Loss: vs. Mississippi State (113/95), @ Mizzou (240/165)


Clemson (11 seed - last 4 in): 
13-11
RPI: 56
Kenpom: 39
Conference Record: 3-9
1-7 vs. top 25
3-8 vs. top 50
8-10 vs. top 100
Top 50 Wins: @ So. Carolina (20/27), @ Wake (31/32) vs. UNC Wilmington (47/56)
Worst Losses: vs. Oklahoma (161/82), vs. Cuse (70/48), @ Georgia Tech (76/79)


Seton Hall (11 seed - last 4 in): 
15-9
RPI: 45
Kenpom: 55
Conference Record: 5-7
1-5 vs. top 25
2-5 vs. top 50
5-8 vs. top 100
Top 50 Wins: vs. So. Carolina (20/27) vs. Cal (33/46)
Worst Losses: @ SJU (114/83), @ Marquette (82/42), vs. Stanford (75/104)


Syracuse (11 seed - last 4 byes):
18-7
RPI: 70
Kenpom: 48
Conference Record: 8-5
2-4 vs. RPI top 25
5-5 vs. RPI top 50
8-7 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: v. UVA (13/2), vs. Fl State (10/13), vs Wake (31/32), vs. Miami (49/34), vs. Monmouth (50/100)
Worst Loss: @ BC (197/149), vs, SJU (114/83), vs. UCONN (121/86)


Michigan (11 seed - last 4 byes):
RPI: 61
Kenpom: 31
Conference Record: 6-6
1-3 vs. RPI top 25
2-6 vs. RPI top 50
9-8 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: vs. SMU (19/12), vs, Michigan State (41/54)
Worst Losses: @ Iowa (105/71), @ Illinois (66/75), vs. Ohio State (59/61)


Michigan State (10 seed - last 4 byes):
RPI: 41
Kenpom: 54
Conference Record: 7-5
2-5 vs. RPI Top 25
3-5 vs. RPI top 50
7-9 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: @ Minnesota (21/37), vs. Minnesota (21/37), v. Northwestern (34/30)
Worst Losses: vs. Northeastern (140/138), @ Indiana (87/49), vs, Penn State (65/80)


Cal (10 seed - last 4 byes):
RPI: 33
Kenpom: 46
Conference Record: 9-4
0-4 vs. RPI Top 25
1-6 vs. RPI top 50
4-7 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: @ USC (32/58)
Worst Losses: vs. San Diego State (92/78), vs. Seton Hall (45/55)


Kansas State (10 seed):
RPI: 43
Kenpom: 28
Conference Record: 5-7
1-4 vs. RPI Top 25
3-7 vs. RPI top 50
3-9 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: @ Baylor (1/7), @ Ok State (28/20), vs. West Virginia (29/4)
Worst Losses: @ Texas Tech (95/40), @ Iowa State (55/26), @ Tennessee (44/41)


TCU (10 seed):
RPI: 35
Kenpom: 38
Conference Record: 6-6
0-4 vs. RPI Top 25
2-6 vs. RPI top 50
5-8 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: vs. Illinois State (26/45), vs. K State (43/28)
Worst Losses: @ Texas Tech (95/40), vs. Auburn (68/76)


Iowa State (7 (!) seed): 
15-9
RPI: 55
Kenpom: 26
Conference Record: 7-5
1-4 vs. top 25
4-6 vs. top 50
5-7 vs. top 100
Top 50 Wins: @ Kansas (3/9), @ OK State (28/20), vs. K State (49/28)
Worst Losses: @Texas (137/68), @ Iowa (105/71), @ Vandy (62/59)

[GoldenDieners32]

Joe lunardi has us as a 11 seed in the play in game against clemson, if we win that we would play Maryland
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[monkeyman34]

Jerry Palm has Marquette out, and not even in the Last Four Out.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[amen426]

Palm has Providence and Seton Hall in over us.

[BM1090]

SI has us as an 11 seed vs. Maryland. 5th or 6th last team in

[EaglesNest]

NBC Sports has Marquette as one of the first 4 out

USA Today has Marquette out completely

[wadesworld]

Let's worry about it after we get a few wins.  If we continue to not win games, it doesn't matter where people have us today.  Win 4 more games from now until Selection Sunday and we'll be in.  Don't do that and we'll be out.

[brewcity77]

As someone who will be going to the MKE games, they wouldn't give UW a 5 seed in Milwaukee right? Especially to play 4 seed Duke.

Our top 50 wins are keeping us in, but we have to stop the bleeding this weekend. A good stretch run at the end and we could put ourselves safely in. However, that means a big turnaround in our quality of play.

My expectation all along was Wisconsin getting the 4 and going to Milwaukee, but losing to Northwestern didn't help their cause. Still, their schedule doesn't get any tougher. If they beat Maryland and don't lose to anyone not named Purdue in the Big 10 Tournament, I think they get the 4 in Milwaukee. If they get the 5, they probably get shipped out.

Then again, we did play that virtual road game as a 3 against 6-seed Murray State in Kentucky, so who knows?

[EaglesNest]

My expectation all along was Wisconsin getting the 4 and going to Milwaukee, but losing to Northwestern didn't help their cause. Still, their schedule doesn't get any tougher. If they beat Maryland and don't lose to anyone not named Purdue in the Big 10 Tournament, I think they get the 4 in Milwaukee. If they get the 5, they probably get shipped out.

Then again, we did play that virtual road game as a 3 against 6-seed Murray State in Kentucky, so who knows?

Wisconsin was placed in Milwaukee as a 6 seed in 2004. Not being in the top 4 doesn't guarantee them being placed far away.

[brewcity77]

Wisconsin was placed in Milwaukee as a 6 seed in 2004. Not being in the top 4 doesn't guarantee them being placed far away.

No, but in recent years the Selection Committee has talked more and more about trying to get the top-4 seeds close to home and (supposedly) not having a home-court disadvantage to lower seeded teams in the opening weekend. If Wisconsin gets a 5 or 6 and plays a higher seeded team in the Round of 32 in Milwaukee, it would be a veritable home game for Bucky. It would definitely be a discussion point the opening week of the tournament.

[EaglesNest]

No, but in recent years the Selection Committee has talked more and more about trying to get the top-4 seeds close to home and (supposedly) not having a home-court disadvantage to lower seeded teams in the opening weekend. If Wisconsin gets a 5 or 6 and plays a higher seeded team in the Round of 32 in Milwaukee, it would be a veritable home game for Bucky. It would definitely be a discussion point the opening week of the tournament.

I agree that they've been trying to cut down on that over the years, but it seems like a team or two seeded outside the top 4 seeds get a geographic advantage every year.  Yale as a 12 seed playing in Providence against Duke last year in the second round is one that comes to mind. Cincinnati playing in Louisville as an 8 seed isn't fair either. 

[brewcity77]

Cincinnati playing in Louisville as an 8 seed isn't fair either.

Ehh, can't really be bothered by that. 2-hour drive from Cincy to Louisville, 3 hour drive from Purdue to Louisville. And the winner got to play undefeated Kentucky in their home state.

[Golden Avalanche]

Palm has Providence and Seton Hall in over us.

The Friars?? 

[EaglesNest]

Ehh, can't really be bothered by that. 2-hour drive from Cincy to Louisville, 3 hour drive from Purdue to Louisville. And the winner got to play undefeated Kentucky in their home state.

I definitely agree with you on that with the way UK takes over arenas, but since they were the #1 overall seed that year I would have expected them to play someone from the 8/9 game from a plane flight away.

[BM1090]

Big win by fringe bubble team Texas Tech over Baylor.  They were the 9th team out going into tonight.

Syracuse loses a close one in OT to Louisville.

[GoldenDieners32]

Hasn't Vandy and Georgia been playing good? If they are that would be good for MU

[cheebs09]

Lunardi tweeted that he thinks we get in, 60/40. Not that it matters much today, but made me feel better for a few seconds.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Big win by fringe bubble team Texas Tech over Baylor.  They were the 9th team out going into tonight.

Syracuse loses a close one in OT to Louisville.

Yah that was a huge W. Glad to see Cuse lose.

[SaveOD238]

Lunardi tweeted that he thinks we get in, 60/40. Not that it matters much today, but made me feel better for a few seconds.

If we win on Saturday, this goes to 80/20.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If we win on Saturday, this goes to 80/20.

Yep. Win our next 2 and we're in good shape again.

[LAZER]

Hasn't Vandy and Georgia been playing good? If they are that would be good for MU

They haven't

[muguru]

They haven't

Vandy was in the top 50 RPI until they inexplicably lost to Missou Saturday. However, Georgia is currently knocking on the top 50 RPI door(at 53). Play Mississippi St Tomorrow night at Kentucky Saturday.