Bubble Watch

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If we make it to the tournament the teams I would like us to play first round are either Syracuse or Va Tech. Syracuse because that guarantees good TV coverage on the East Coast.

I think the only way we play Syracuse in the first round is if we get a 5 seed and they get a 12, or if we fall all the way to the play in game. There's no situation where we get a 5 and I don't think there is any situation where both Syracuse and us are in Dayton. Too many teams between us at this point. If we fall all the way to Dayton than Syracuse will get pushed into the NIT. Theoretically possible if all the teams between us do really well and the teams behind Syracuse don't but unlikely. But I don't hope to play Syracuse because if we do it will be in Dayton and I want a higher seed.

[bradley center bat]

Yeah, but if we win the BET, who cares? No chance we get left out with an autobid. Does seeding matter that much?

Seeding doesn't matter all that much, but I dream about winning a Big East Title.

[BM1090]

Clemson lost to Duke. If there was any doubt (there wasn't, really) now they are officially done.

[Benny B]

Seeding doesn't matter all that much, but I dream about winning a Big East Title.

I envy you.  I've always been a "go big or go home" kind of guy who was born 8+ months after Al wept on the bench for the last time.  Which pretty much means that every college basketball season has been a disappointed my entire life, although beating Utah State would be the sole exception but only because I was holding my oldest the entire game, and by the time Lazar sank that last FT, more than half of my son's life up to that point had been spent sleeping in my arms.

[PGsHeroes32]

Clemson lost to Duke. If there was any doubt (there wasn't, really) now they are officially done.

Sadly Lunardi kept refusing to kill them(or Indiana)

Until no games remain

Mental

[drewm88]

Sadly Lunardi kept refusing to kill them(or Indiana)

Until no games remain

Mental

It may just be a dearth of teams that are out but close to getting in. If you look at Bracket Matrix, there's a huge drop from team #70 to the rest. Maybe a "good" loss doesn't drop Clemson behind anyone new, and Joey still has to fill his first and next four out, even if there's next to no chance Clemson moves up into the field.

[GGGG]

It may just be a dearth of teams that are out but close to getting in. If you look at Bracket Matrix, there's a huge drop from team #70 to the rest. Maybe a "good" loss doesn't drop Clemson behind anyone new, and Joey still has to fill his first and next four out, even if there's next to no chance Clemson moves up into the field.

If all the bubble teams lose, SOMEONE still has to be selected.

[MUMountin]

My sights are always on the same thing. Being an elite program. Contending for national titles and being routinely in the top-10. But I accept these things don't happen overnight. It took Jay Wright a decade to build Villanova into that.

Getting there, in my opinion, takes winning and accolades. Big East titles, Final Fours, 1-seeds, those are the goals, but those are components of becoming a true national title contender. I don't think we're there yet, but I like the path we're on.

I want another national title in my lifetime. I want to remember a national title. Anything less than that is just window dressing that is hopefully building towards that. Runner up, Final Four, those are nice building blocks, but still represent failure. That's why I care about tangible things you can point to, and why little things like first and second weekend wins have minimal meaning if you don't win two games on the final weekend of the season.

Clearly, you just don't place as much value on early round wins as part of the building blocks towards future success.  But, I think there is a pretty good argument that those early round wins can be important building blocks towards the ultimate goal.  As you said, "getting there . . . takes winning and accolades."

I think that most of us agree that at this point, we've met or exceeded expectations for this year, all things considered.  We are largely playing with house money from here on out.

We won't fault Wojo or the team if we end up losing the first round game--likely, it'll be a toss-up or we'll be slight underdogs, and just getting there this year is a prize unto itself. 

But this is where I think things have the potential to change the relevance for the program.  Win when we aren't expected to (particularly in the Dance). 

Especially this early in Wojo's coaching career, an unexpected S16 run will certainly have an impact on reputation and recruiting.  Gives Wojo a little more cache to go into a recruit's home and make his pitch against the blue bloods, making it a little easier to bring in high level talent.  He's already shown that he can recruit good talent without that success; just imagine what he can do with a little more heft to his resume.  A few NCAA wins will also re-energize the casual fan base, which we all agree has been lackluster the last few seasons. 

One of the things that really accelerated our program under Buzz was that while we expected to compete under him (especially after the first year or two), I don't think anyone expected that Sweet 16 run as an 11 seed in 2011.  But, that started off a string of success resulting in three straight S16s (and an Elite 8!). 

All of this is to say--while simply making the tourney this year will be great, and a sign that we are moving the right direction, a win or two would help accelerate the entire process and do a lot to jump start the excitement around the program.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

The whole clemson thing has been totally annoying to me.  Regardless of whether MU gets in and where they stand the fact the the name Clemson continues to roll off these dbags lips is vomi inducing.  My goodness, take illinois, or illinois state or belmont or houston or any other bubble team before clemson.  My good ness they went 6-12 in the acc, read that agin they lost twice as many games as they won.  They did nothing all season long and its a slap in the face of all bubke teams and is beyond reason or onjectivity that they even be mentioned. Georgetown has as much acheievement as clemson as do about 100 other teams that are not being mention , its insane

[Windyplayer]

The whole clemson thing has been totally annoying to me.  Regardless of whether MU gets in and where they stand the fact the the name Clemson continues to roll off these dbags lips is vomi inducing.  My goodness, take illinois, or illinois state or belmont or houston or any other bubble team before clemson.  My good ness they went 6-12 in the acc, read that agin they lost twice as many games as they won.  They did nothing all season long and its a slap in the face of all bubke teams and is beyond reason or onjectivity that they even be mentioned. Georgetown has as much acheievement as clemson as do about 100 other teams that are not being mention , its insane

I heard they have a satellite campus in Bristol now.

[brewcity77]

Winning would help, and obviously I'll cheer any Marquette success. Right now I feel like we're ahead of schedule, so I'm not stressing too much about this postseason. Hoping for the Big East Title, then as deep a NCAA run as we can muster.

[Holly Ellenson is my Mom]

Any chance MU gets selected to play in Orlando? I will be there during that time and would love to head to the games...

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Winning would help, and obviously I'll cheer any Marquette success. Right now I feel like we're ahead of schedule, so I'm not stressing too much about this postseason. Hoping for the Big East Title, then as deep a NCAA run as we can muster.

So u wouldnt feel twinge or even take a deep breath if mu's name wasnt mentioned on sunday evening?

[geagles10]

Any chance MU gets selected to play in Orlando? I will be there during that time and would love to head to the games...

Agree, I am there for a conference as well.  Odds are very slim as it's a Thursday / Sat location and MU is hosting those days so they try to avoid that conflict I have heard.

[muwarrior97]

I heard they have a satellite campus in Bristol now.

They lost in ACC tourney today, that should be the large nail in their bubble

[MuMark]

So u wouldnt feel twinge or even take a deep breath if mu's name wasnt mentioned on sunday evening?

He meant we are ahead of schedule because he expects we will hear our  named called Sunday.

[jsglow]

If all the bubble teams lose, SOMEONE still has to be selected.

AND they have to have something to talk about.  Gets pretty boring if they tell the truth and only discuss 4-5 teams for a week.  But realistically, that's probably what it's down to.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So u wouldnt feel twinge or even take a deep breath if mu's name wasnt mentioned on sunday evening?

In order for that to happen 5/9 of the remaining conferences that have the potential to produce an at large bid would have to have a bid stealer. Even then, I think our name still gets called. So if that happens I will consider it God's will that we don't make the tournament and have to live with that. Marquette has put together a resume worthy of making the field.

[geagles10]

Both Greenberg and Jay Williams STILL have Syracuse in after the loss.  See video on espn.com

[MUMountin]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/

Using Strength of Record as the best statistical correllation with Selection Committee choices in the past, this author computes that MU has an 88.6% chance of making the tournament, only behind Wake Forest and Xavier among bubble teams.

[jsglow]

And model that has Wake and X as more deserving is a crap model.

[GoldenDieners32]

Syracuse is done

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Both Greenberg and Jay Williams STILL have Syracuse in after the loss.  See video on espn.com

As they should. Losing to Miami on a neutral court is not a bad loss. You shouldn't move down (and you don't) for a good loss. However, this means they are out of chances to improve their resume. If teams like Rhode island and Kansas state win in their tournaments, then cuse will move down.

Syracuse is done

Only if the teams below them win.

[MU_Beav]

And model that has Wake and X as more deserving is a crap model.

agreed.

[Herman Cain]

Syracuse is done

Couldn't happen to a nicer group of guys lol