Just moved up to 35th at kenpom, ahead of buzz!

[BM1090]

10 conference wins and MU is in. Let's get it done this year so I don't have to dwell on the Pitt and SH games.

Agree. Even going 10-8 with sweeps of PC, DP, SJU, GT, and then beating SHU and Butler at home, would give us the following numbers (projected)

W-L   RPI*   SOS
19-11   49   46

1-7 against the top 4, and those numbers are probably still enough to get us in

[fjm]

Agree. Even going 10-8 with sweeps of PC, DP, SJU, GT, and then beating SHU and Butler at home, would give us the following numbers (projected)

W-L   RPI*   SOS
19-11   49   46

1-7 against the top 4, and those numbers are probably still enough to get us in

Would 9-9 with a win vs a surprise? Like creighton or X get us in?

I really want 10-8. I am
Just being honest. This team will shoot us to a lot of wins. But also lose us one surprise game.

[auburnmarquette]

Agree. Even going 10-8 with sweeps of PC, DP, SJU, GT, and then beating SHU and Butler at home, would give us the following numbers (projected)

W-L   RPI*   SOS
19-11   49   46

1-7 against the top 4, and those numbers are probably still enough to get us in

Still believe it's 20 wins total, whether during regular season or with the combination of wins from the Big East tournament.

[BM1090]

Still believe it's 20 wins total, whether during regular season or with the combination of wins from the Big East tournament.

I agree in the sense that we'd be a lock with 20 wins, but 19-12 with a first round loss to X or Butler would only drop our RPI to 50 and would increase SOS to 35.

That could still be enough.

[fjm]

20 wins. Unless every midmajor conference champ loses their tourney again like last year. Then we are out the NCAA and NIT again

[BM1090]

20 wins. Unless every midmajor conference champ loses their tourney again like last year. Then we are out the NCAA and NIT again

20 wins this year and 20 wins last year don't even begin to compare. Our RPI would be 60-70 spots better this year with the identical record.

[bilsu]

20 wins this year and 20 wins last year don't even begin to compare. Our RPI would be 60-70 spots better this year with the identical record.

That is true, but last year we four quality wins over NCAA tournament teams Providence (2), Bulter and Wisconsin.

[Lennys Tap]

That is true, but last year we four quality wins over NCAA tournament teams Providence (2), Bulter and Wisconsin.

Last year we were 12-13 against non cupcakes.

[brewcity77]

That is true, but last year we four quality wins over NCAA tournament teams Providence (2), Bulter and Wisconsin.

This year we have Georgia and would need 10 more wins from here on out. Either one of two things happens. We sweep our remaining games against DePaul, St. John's, Providence, and Georgetown (7 games) and end up with 3 more quality wins against Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, and Xavier to get to 10, or we slip up against a non-tourney team (like last year) and end up with more than 3 quality wins.

Either way, if we get to 20, we will have a much better resume than last year, especially as last year we went 8-1 in our home "cupcake" games against teams with an average RPI of 269.2 and this year we were 7-0 against teams with an average expected RPI of 234.6. Two fewer cupcakes on the schedule, one fewer loss, average improvement of 35 spots in RPI, and zero sub-300 projected opponents is a massive upgrade.

From a mathematical perspective, 20 wins this year would be a landslide better than last year no matter what. And yes, I know RPI isn't calculated based on the RPI ranking of your opponents, but for the sake of this argument I feel it's effective.

[bilsu]

This year we have Georgia and would need 10 more wins from here on out. Either one of two things happens. We sweep our remaining games against DePaul, St. John's, Providence, and Georgetown (7 games) and end up with 3 more quality wins against Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, and Xavier to get to 10, or we slip up against a non-tourney team (like last year) and end up with more than 3 quality wins.

Either way, if we get to 20, we will have a much better resume than last year, especially as last year we went 8-1 in our home "cupcake" games against teams with an average RPI of 269.2 and this year we were 7-0 against teams with an average expected RPI of 234.6. Two fewer cupcakes on the schedule, one fewer loss, average improvement of 35 spots in RPI, and zero sub-300 projected opponents is a massive upgrade.

From a mathematical perspective, 20 wins this year would be a landslide better than last year no matter what. And yes, I know RPI isn't calculated based on the RPI ranking of your opponents, but for the sake of this argument I feel it's effective.

20 wins this year would be a landslide better than last year. Remove one bunny form last year's schedule and we would of been 19-13. If we get to 9-9 that would get us to 18-12. One & one in Big east tournament gets to 19-13 against a tougher schedule. What we do not know is whether 9-9 gets us out of the bottom four. Last year had we beaten Butler, I think there would of been 3 teams tied at 9-9 and one of them would of been in the bottom four. That is important, because if you finished 7th then your Big East tournament win comes against the last place team, so in that case 1-1 in Big East tournament is not a big help to our resume. I think we need 20 wins to get a bid. 19 would work, if 9-9 gets us out of bottom four, which means a first round Big East tournament win is against a very good team. Also, do not forget the eye test. Last year we were beaten badly by the top teams in the conference. While losing to Seton Hall hurt, I would argue we past the eye test in that game.