The Official Cubs Win The World Series Thread

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Correct. He also added a slider/cutter and began using his sinker more.

Jonah Keri wrote a very good breakdown about it last year.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-playoffs-jake-arrieta-dominance-chicago-cubs/

Maybe Wades should actually read that.  It would help if he knew anything about Arrieta and his evolution throughout his career.  All he's doing is looking at surface numbers and making unfounded, insulting accusations.  It really is exactly what Stephen A. Smith did and Stephen A. Smith is an idiot.   

Arrieta was always very highly regarded as a prospect.  The Orioles completely changed his mechanics.  The Cubs let him be himself.  There have been a number of articles written on the topic. 

Furthermore, as wades incorrectly stated numerous times, this did not happen overnight.  Arrieta started seeing positive results as soon as the Cubs brought him up in 2013 (3.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 9 starts).

He was quietly excellent in 2014 (2.53 ERA and .99 WHIP in 25 starts).  And then the historic 2nd half last season, which I guess somehow means the guy is clearly on PEDs.

This is in no way the story of an awful pitcher who suddenly became historically great within one year.  This isn't the story of pitcher who's velocity suddenly increased by 5 MPH over the course of an offseason.  It's the story of a guy with a boatload of talent who worked his ass off and found the right team and pitching coach to excel.   

[MerrittsMustache]

I was completely on the fence on Schwarber and would have leaned toward leaving him off. Also glad to be wrong. From what I heard last night, he's not cleared to play in the field yet. They'd have to get him approved by a doctor for that. Really hope they just leave him as a pinch hitter at home, though his bat is certainly hot. I'd like to see Heyward back in there, I know his bat is ice cold, but his defense is fantastic.

Schwarber's defense was questionable to begin with but to throw him out their in the cold weather on a bad knee in a potentially damp conditions? Not a chance. Like others have said, pick your spot to use Schwarber. The Cubs have plenty of capable, interchangeable defenders on the roster who could come into the game after his AB. Maddon would likely only PH Schwarber for Russell or whoever starts in RF.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Schwarber's defense was questionable to begin with but to throw him out their in the cold weather on a bad knee in a potentially damp conditions? Not a chance. Like others have said, pick your spot to use Schwarber. The Cubs have plenty of capable, interchangeable defenders on the roster who could come into the game after his AB. Maddon would likely only PH Schwarber for Russell or whoever starts in RF.

I doubt we see him out there but it is supposed to be pretty warm tomorrow.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Lol. Please do tell! I can't wait to hear. Staring at his pitch velocity now. Oddly enough it was down until 3 seasons ago, way up the past 2 seasons, and back down this season. And his numbers aren't even debateable. So I'd love to know what's wrong. Very intrigued.

Maybe actually do some research about his entire story if you're going to make that kind of accusation. 

And any velocity increase wasn't drastic.  The guy has always thrown hard.  It's pretty normal for pitchers to have velocity fluctuations during their careers due to health, mechanics, age, etc. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Last year, there was an article in SI about JA and how/why he was throwing so much better as a Cub.    The crux of it was that (A) in Baltimore they wanted him to throw more traditionally.   They were worried about him hurting his arm throwing across his body.   In Chicago, they allowed him to throw in the way that was more natural for him.   (B) He got into a workout regime that seriously strengthened his core and improved his flexibility.   

Better conditioning and a return to his natural motion equals a drastic leap.   

Yep. 

[Coleman]

I'm a Cardinals fan and have no reason to defend Arrieta, but it is lazy and irresponsible to hint that his performance last year was due to PEDs. Par for the course for Wades though.

If you have done the smallest bit of research on him and his time in Baltimore and with the Cubs there are plenty of legitimate reasons for his improvement.

And by the way, he pitched a gem last night.

Also mad props to Schwarber. To be able to perform like that on literally a spring training condensed into 3 days at the Arizona Fall League is nothing short of remarkable.

#notacubsfan

[MerrittsMustache]

Furthermore, as wades incorrectly stated numerous times, this did not happen overnight.  Arrieta started seeing positive results as soon as the Cubs brought him up in 2013 (3.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 9 starts).

He was quietly excellent in 2014 (2.53 ERA and .99 WHIP in 25 starts).  And then the historic 2nd half last season, which I guess somehow means the guy is clearly on PEDs.

Often overlooked is that Arrieta wasn't even an All-Star in 2015. On June 16 he had a respectable but unspectacular 3.40 ERA. From May 25 thru the end of the 2016 regular season his ERA was 3.95.  He had a historic second half of 2015. He isn't a Cy Young candidate in 2016.

Honestly, I think that Theo and FO have their doubt about whether he's going to be able to keep it up long-term, which is why they have been a bit hesitant about a contract extension. He's still under team control thru 2017 but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he's wearing a different uni when 2018 begins.

[wadesworld]

Last year, there was an article in SI about JA and how/why he was throwing so much better as a Cub.    The crux of it was that (A) in Baltimore they wanted him to throw more traditionally.   They were worried about him hurting his arm throwing across his body.   In Chicago, they allowed him to throw in the way that was more natural for him.   (B) He got into a workout regime that seriously strengthened his core and improved his flexibility.   

Better conditioning and a return to his natural motion equals a drastic leap.   

I would then be interested to know what they would say led to the drop in velocity and the drop in production this year.  He certainly was still very good this year, but nowhere near as dominant as he was the last 2 seasons.

[wadesworld]

Maybe Wades should actually read that.  It would help if he knew anything about Arrieta and his evolution throughout his career.  All he's doing is looking at surface numbers and making unfounded, insulting accusations.  It really is exactly what Stephen A. Smith did and Stephen A. Smith is an idiot.   

Arrieta was always very highly regarded as a prospect.  The Orioles completely changed his mechanics.  The Cubs let him be himself.  There have been a number of articles written on the topic. 

Furthermore, as wades incorrectly stated numerous times, this did not happen overnight.  Arrieta started seeing positive results as soon as the Cubs brought him up in 2013 (3.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 9 starts).

He was quietly excellent in 2014 (2.53 ERA and .99 WHIP in 25 starts).  And then the historic 2nd half last season, which I guess somehow means the guy is clearly on PEDs.

This is in no way the story of an awful pitcher who suddenly became historically great within one year.  This isn't the story of pitcher who's velocity suddenly increased by 5 MPH over the course of an offseason.  It's the story of a guy with a boatload of talent who worked his ass off and found the right team and pitching coach to excel.   

It is exactly a story of a bad pitcher becoming historically great overnight.  To a tee, really.  He was very bad, and the next season he was the best pitcher in baseball.  There's really no arguing that lol.  The reason?  Sure, argue all you'd like.  Just like Sammy Sosa just had a bat to put on BP shows for the crowds showing up before the game that he accidentally grabbed instead of his normal game bat and just like he suddenly forgot how to speak English when pressed about steroid use, it's all natural baby.  Just looks like it isn't.

But to deny that Arrieta went from bad to the best pitcher in baseball in an offseason?  Well, okay I guess.

[wadesworld]

Maybe actually do some research about his entire story if you're going to make that kind of accusation. 

And any velocity increase wasn't drastic.  The guy has always thrown hard.  It's pretty normal for pitchers to have velocity fluctuations during their careers due to health, mechanics, age, etc.

Yes.  Velocity fluctuation.  Meaning it goes up and down but overall hovers around the same number.  Not a consistent velocity up until you're 28 and then a sudden increase of 2-4 (depending on pitch type) MPH, and now suddenly back down to where you were 3 years ago.

[MerrittsMustache]

Yes.  Velocity fluctuation.  Meaning it goes up and down but overall hovers around the same number.  Not a consistent velocity up until you're 28 and then a sudden increase of 2-4 (depending on pitch type) MPH, and now suddenly back down to where you were 3 years ago.

What's your source for these numbers?

[wadesworld]

I'm a Cardinals fan and have no reason to defend Arrieta, but it is lazy and irresponsible to hint that his performance last year was due to PEDs. Par for the course for Wades though.

If you have done the smallest bit of research on him and his time in Baltimore and with the Cubs there are plenty of legitimate reasons for his improvement.

And by the way, he pitched a gem last night.

Also mad props to Schwarber. To be able to perform like that on literally a spring training condensed into 3 days at the Arizona Fall League is nothing short of remarkable.

#notacubsfan

I've heard all the reasons for it.  Those are all great.  If the pitching coach turns water in to wine maybe I should go pitch for the Cubs.

What does "par for the course for wades" mean?  I'm curious.

[wadesworld]

What's your source for these numbers?

Fangraphs.com

[LAZER]

I would then be interested to know what they would say led to the drop in velocity and the drop in production this year.  He certainly was still very good this year, but nowhere near as dominant as he was the last 2 seasons.

I think going from 75 to 156 to 229 innings pitched in consecutive years could definitely contribute to a drop in velocity. And his production was of course going to drop off from last year, but I think this is largely due to a 3.47BB/9 (vs 1.89 in 2015) and this is mostly due to his inability to locate his slider this season.

[LAZER]

Fangraphs.com

Where are you seeing the 2-4mph increase on Fangraphs?

[MerrittsMustache]

It is exactly a story of a bad pitcher becoming historically great overnight.  To a tee, really.  He was very bad, and the next season he was the best pitcher in baseball.  There's really no arguing that lol.  The reason?  Sure, argue all you'd like.  Just like Sammy Sosa just had a bat to put on BP shows for the crowds showing up before the game that he accidentally grabbed instead of his normal game bat and just like he suddenly forgot how to speak English when pressed about steroid use, it's all natural baby.  Just looks like it isn't.

But to deny that Arrieta went from bad to the best pitcher in baseball in an offseason?  Well, okay I guess.

He was inconsistent with the Orioles when he came up.

2013: He had a 3.66 ERA with the Cubs in 9 GS. He was 3.03 over his final 5 starts that season.

2014: He had a 2.53 ERA in 25 starts

April 8 - June 16, 2015: 13 GS, 3.40 ERA

June 21 - Oct 2, 2015: 20 GS, 0.86 ERA

April 4 - June 22, 2016: 15 GS, 1.74 ERA

June 27 - Sept 28: 16 GS, 4.44 ERA

Basically he had a run of about 35 starts where he was dominant. In his other 63 starts with the Cubs, he's been a solid #2 or 3 type guy.

[wadesworld]

He was inconsistent with the Orioles when he came up.

2013: He had a 3.66 ERA with the Cubs in 9 GS. He was 3.03 over his final 5 starts that season.

2014: He had a 2.53 ERA in 25 starts

April 8 - June 16, 2015: 13 GS, 3.40 ERA

June 21 - Oct 2, 2015: 20 GS, 0.86 ERA

April 4 - June 22, 2016: 15 GS, 1.74 ERA

June 27 - Sept 28: 16 GS, 4.44 ERA

Basically he had a run of about 35 starts where he was dominant. In his other 63 starts with the Cubs, he's been a solid #2 or 3 type guy.

Fair enough.

(Not directing at you necessarily, just all the Chicago backers here)
Clay Matthes: PED user despite never failing a drug test, absolutely no doubt about it (I agree here).
Jake Arrieta: How dare you question the integrity of the man?!  He worked insanely hard to bring out the talent that was always inside him and never failed a drug test in his life!

Got it.  Makes sense.  My fault.

[MerrittsMustache]

Fair enough.

(Not directing at you necessarily, just all the Chicago backers here)
Clay Matthes: PED user despite never failing a drug test, absolutely no doubt about it (I agree here).
Jake Arrieta: How dare you question the integrity of the man?!  He worked insanely hard to bring out the talent that was always inside him and never failed a drug test in his life!

Got it.  Makes sense.  My fault.

Once again you're having an issue with illogical inferences.

Many posters have stated that they don't know whether Arrieta is a PED guy or not. What they do know is that he was a highly-touted pitching prospect, he dominated in the minors, he has long had great stuff but control issues, one team tried to change his mechanics and he struggled, another team let him pitch how he was comfortable and his results increased dramatically. This comes in response to your argument, which basically seems to be "the guy went from bad to great so therefore he's a cheater."

[Vander Blue Man Group]

It is exactly a story of a bad pitcher becoming historically great overnight.  To a tee, really.  He was very bad, and the next season he was the best pitcher in baseball.  There's really no arguing that lol.  The reason?  Sure, argue all you'd like.  Just like Sammy Sosa just had a bat to put on BP shows for the crowds showing up before the game that he accidentally grabbed instead of his normal game bat and just like he suddenly forgot how to speak English when pressed about steroid use, it's all natural baby.  Just looks like it isn't.

But to deny that Arrieta went from bad to the best pitcher in baseball in an offseason?  Well, okay I guess.

So you're the type of dude that even when presented tons of evidence to the contrary you just hold onto your weak argument, huh. 

He was bad in 2014?  A 2.53 ERA and a .99 WHIP is bad?  GTFO.

The Sosa comparison is ridiculous, BTW.  Not as ridiculous as you but ridiculous nonetheless. 

[wadesworld]

So you're the type of dude that even when presented tons of evidence to the contrary you just hold onto your weak argument, huh. 

He was bad in 2014?  A 2.53 ERA and a .99 WHIP is bad?  GTFO.

The Sosa comparison is ridiculous, BTW.  Not as ridiculous as you but ridiculous nonetheless.

Who said 2014 was bad? Lol. That's the year he went from a career ERA of well over 5 to 2.5 at the age of 28. Thought that was fairly clear what I've been talking about?

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I think going from 75 to 156 to 229 innings pitched in consecutive years could definitely contribute to a drop in velocity. And his production was of course going to drop off from last year, but I think this is largely due to a 3.47BB/9 (vs 1.89 in 2015) and this is mostly due to his inability to locate his slider this season.

Yep.  His "down" year this season has been due to erratic command more often than not.  The stuff is still nasty and the velocity is still good.  His mechanics are complicated. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Who said 2014 was bad? Lol. That's the year he went from a career ERA of well over 5 to 2.5 at the age of 28. Thought that was fairly clear what I've been talking about?

You said he went from bad to great overnight.  He clearly did not.  You don't look at overall stats.  You look at them year by year. 

[Coleman]

What does "par for the course for wades" mean?  I'm curious.

Stubbornly clinging to your position in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Yes.  Velocity fluctuation.  Meaning it goes up and down but overall hovers around the same number.  Not a consistent velocity up until you're 28 and then a sudden increase of 2-4 (depending on pitch type) MPH, and now suddenly back down to where you were 3 years ago.

Where's the dramatic velocity fluctuations you're referencing?  I just don't see them.  And why is that?  Because they don't exist.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=453562&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=10/27/2016&s_type=2

[LAZER]

Who said 2014 was bad? Lol. That's the year he went from a career ERA of well over 5 to 2.5 at the age of 28. Thought that was fairly clear what I've been talking about?

Again, this improvement was largely due to command.  4.9BB/9 vs 2.36BB/9 while his velocity actually decreased.