Henry Math

[Tugg Speedman]

2015-2016 NBA Rookie Scale
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

#18 pick

year 1 = $1.372M
year 2 = $1.433M
year 3 = $1.496M
Total  $4.301  million

Assuming the scale stays the same ...

Question, If Henry returned, where would he have to be drafted next year to make up for the lost $1.372 million from year 1 this year?

Or, what draft position makes him more than $1.372 million, thus making up for the loss of this year's salary.

Answer, #12 next year (again, assuming the scale stays the same)

year 1 = $1.8665M
year 2 = $1.9505M
year 3 = $2.0345
Total  $5.8515  million

So, if Henry stayed and improved his deficiencies, could he have moved up to 12 next year?  If so, he would have been better off staying.

[dgies9156]

Absolutely agree with you Heisey. Even accounting for the time value of money, if he stayed another year and improved his game, he'd be better off staying.

Oh well, here's to a great career for Henry.

[AZWarrior]

If Dominic James had gone pro after his stellar first season, a similar argument could be made.  "If DJ had stayed one more year to work on his outside shot......"  Yet the argument would have been invalid.  With Henry, he might have been injured during his sophomore year.  He might not have improved significantly.  You can't know with any certainty.

Now, for my own selfish reasons, I wish Henry had stayed.

[brandx]

2015-2016 NBA Rookie Scale
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

#18 pick

year 1 = $1.372M
year 2 = $1.433M
year 3 = $1.496M
Total  $4.301  million

Assuming the scale stays the same ...

Question, If Henry returned, where would he have to be drafted next year to make up for the lost $1.372 million from year 1 this year?

Or, what draft position makes him more than $1.372 million, thus making up for the loss of this year's salary.

Answer, #12 next year (again, assuming the scale stays the same)

year 1 = $1.8665M
year 2 = $1.9505M
year 3 = $2.0345
Total  $5.8515  million

So, if Henry stayed and improved his deficiencies, could he have moved up to 12 next year?  If so, he would have been better off staying.

Not quite. Since he would be getting nothing next year if he stayed AND you are looking at a 3 year contract, the total is actually for the next 4 years. So You need to add the 4th year to his deal for going 18th tonight. That means he makes more money by going a little lower, but one year earlier.

[Tugg Speedman]

Not quite. Since he would be getting nothing next year if he stayed AND you are looking at a 3 year contract, the total is actually for the next 4 years. So You need to add the 4th year to his deal for going 18th tonight. That means he makes more money by going a little lower, but one year earlier.

Year 4 is an option year, cannot assume it for these purposes.

[Dish]

This isn't even a debate, he's so much better off going this year. Why is this even a topic? Common sense prevails here.

-Injury risk
-Time value of money
-Year closer to 2nd contract
-Absolutely loaded 2017 draft

[The Equalizer]

2015-2016 NBA Rookie Scale
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

#18 pick

year 1 = $1.372M
year 2 = $1.433M
year 3 = $1.496M
Total  $4.301  million

Assuming the scale stays the same ...

Question, If Henry returned, where would he have to be drafted next year to make up for the lost $1.372 million from year 1 this year?

Or, what draft position makes him more than $1.372 million, thus making up for the loss of this year's salary.

Answer, #12 next year (again, assuming the scale stays the same)

year 1 = $1.8665M
year 2 = $1.9505M
year 3 = $2.0345
Total  $5.8515  million

So, if Henry stayed and improved his deficiencies, could he have moved up to 12 next year?  If so, he would have been better off staying.

You forgot to factor for the one additional year of career earnings. 

Lets say Henry can play until he's 30 years old.

Leaving this year, he has 11 total pro earning years--the first three at $4.3 million, and then 8 more seasons.  Lets assume the NBA average of $4.9 million.  That's a career total of $43.5 million.

Leaving next year, he only has 10 total pro earning years.  Even if he makes more his first 3 years at $5.85 million. Problem is that he has only 7 more at the NBA average of $4.9 million.  Career total of $40.2 million.

So by sticking around and moving up to the 12th pick, he might make $1.3 million over the first 3 years of his career, but loses $3.3 million over the course of his career.

Bodies don't delay aging simply because you stay in college longer.  If the body can endure until age 30, it doesn't care that you spent your 20th year in college or the NBA. 

[wadesworld]

Year 4 is an option year, cannot assume it for these purposes.

Okay so if Hank had a 3 year basketball playing career sure it would've been better to stay and move up to 12 starting a year later.

Good thing for him is he won't have a 3 year playing career. So his reality is through the 2018-2019 season he'll have made the $4.301M from his rookie contract. Then he'll make, conservatively, $10M in the first year of his second contract, a year in which he'd make $2.0345M if he waited around another year and moved up to #12 overall. Which means he made an extra nearly $8M, making him +$6.5M through the 2019-2020 season.

What people here continue to fail to realize is you aren't playing for your rookie contract. Chances are very, very high he will make more per year on his second contract than he will on his total rookie contract. So putting the second contract off a year is as dumb as it gets.

It's how Wesley Matthews became the highest paid 2nd year player in the NBA after his rookie year. He wasn't even drafted at all...yet was making more than the #1 overall pick because his first contract wasn't 3+ years.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This is a silly exercise. It is impossible to know what would or wouldn't happen if HE were to stay. Safest move from a financial perspective is to always come out early if you are a guaranteed first round pick. If HE's priority was to be a top ten pick staying might have been better. It also might not have been better. Who knows? All we know is that he was a #18 pick after coming out this year.

I will say this. Anyone who doesn't think HE isn't disappointed by falling to 18 is fooling themselves. However, becoming a millionaire overnight will probably help ease that pain. Hope he uses this to fuel him further and do great things in the NBA.

[NorthernDancerColt]

This is a silly exercise. It is impossible to know what would or wouldn't happen if HE were to stay. Safest move from a financial perspective is to always come out early if you are a guaranteed first round pick. If HE's priority was to be a top ten pick staying might have been better. It also might not have been better. Who knows? All we know is that he was a #18 pick after coming out this year.

I will say this. Anyone who doesn't think HE isn't disappointed by falling to 18 is fooling themselves. However, becoming a millionaire overnight will probably help ease that pain. Hope he uses this to fuel him further and do great things in the NBA.

Post BREXIT, hope he just loaded up on Gold or mining stocks. Dow will be scary next few days...

[rocket surgeon]

ok, then reality sets in and wakes up monday morning-

    year 1- $1,372,000 realizes about $825,000
    year 2- $1,430,000 realizes about $858,000       gotta pay uncle sammy his FAIR SHARE Enn'A so hey?
    year 3- $1.496,000 realizes about $897,600

                                 totals-$2,550,600

   this doesn't include agent, personal trainer or posse but also doesn't include possible endorsements and/or shoe, equipment, etc

i am not complaining or beaching, but just sayin...it's still not bad coin for a pre-20 something year old.  but he better have a back up plan and get a 2nd contract as he doens't have a college degree and $2.5 ain't gonna last until 80

[vogue65]

As the analysis progressed it got strategic, good going scoop.  The result of a 10 year analysis is much better than a short term view.

[GGGG]

Year 4 is an option year, cannot assume it for these purposes.

So we can make a bunch of assumptions about where he would go next year without a good understanding of where he fits in a loaded draft class, but we can't assume a 4 year option?

Put it this way, if I were given the following choices:

1. Guaranteed $4.3 million over the next three years, with the distinct possibility of earning a $50 million contract in year four.

OR

2.  Taking no compensation in year one, with the possibility (no guarantee) of earning $5.8 million over years 2-4, and the distinct possibility of earning a $50 million contract in year five.

I would take #1 every single day of the week.  Not even a question.

[4everwarriors]

Y'all are full of rectal gas and such. Der is zero reason for Ellenson to have stayed. Its da definition of a no-brainer. Either y'all are jealous, pissed off dat he left, or just plain fookin' ignorant. JC, da kid's realized his dream and procured a well payin' gig. What's so difficult to comprehend, hey?

[79Warrior]

Y'all are full of rectal gas and such. Der is zero reason for Ellenson to have stayed. Its da definition of a no-brainer. Either y'all are jealous, pissed off dat he left, or just plain fookin' ignorant. JC, da kid's realized his dream and procured a well payin' gig. What's so difficult to comprehend, hey?

100%

[wadesworld]

Y'all are full of rectal gas and such. Der is zero reason for Ellenson to have stayed. Its da definition of a no-brainer. Either y'all are jealous, pissed off dat he left, or just plain fookin' ignorant. JC, da kid's realized his dream and procured a well payin' gig. What's so difficult to comprehend, hey?

+1

[Stronghold]

Highest drafted player from MU since D Wade and he's a freshman.  Henry just achieved his lifelong dream and couldn't be happier for him.  He will make more in his first 3 years than many people make in a career.  Rice Lake better hang a billboard in his honor.

[Benny B]

Sorry Heisey... I know it was probably tl;dr for you, but for the record, I beat you to this by nearly three months... plus I offered some balance.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=51310

[wadesworld]

Sorry Heisey... I know it was probably tl;dr for you, but for the record, I beat you to this by nearly three months... plus I offered some balance.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=51310

But can he copy and paste your post as his own and get his click count up?

[GOO]

If anyone seriously thinks he would have been better off staying, I'd like to see the logic in detail.  The only way to make that logic work is to project that all goes very well and he increases his value. But to make that work he must increase his value more than other players for next year.  Remember it is all about potential improvement with these guys. 

Plus, as the draft this year proves, being more of an unknown commodity can be a positive for one's draft status (these GM's sure love to fill the void of info with hope, makes me think they are very optimistic people).  Look at the Bucks pick.   If Henry didn't improve his 3 point shot dramatically and his defensive quickness, all of a sudden he is going later, not earlier.  Because it is no longer he has the potential to be a great shooter or get better on defense.  Instead, it is a bigger question mark.  If his team doesn't win two years in a row, hurts him...

Should Wade have stayed because he could have dominated as a Junior and gotten to go top 3 or even number 1 or 2?   Of course not.  It is all about the second contract, where average pay will be closer to 10M a year.

Dominic James logic of coming back, to better himself.  Nothing is guaranteed, and he would have been as likely to go lower than higher.  If Google wants to hire you for 1.4M a year, do you hold out because Apple may hire you a year later if you improve more than those around you for 2M a year?  Gotta take the deal in front of you if it is a great deal.

Henry had to take the apple in front of him instead of hoping for a better apple in the fall if everything works out. Doing anything else would have been poor business and playing the lottery with real money in front of him.  Let's not even talk about injury.... unlikely, but can't be ruled out. 

[Herman Cain]

The math works well for Henry. He has everything he wants now. Not only is he part of NBA , he landed  on a team where he has a decent chance of playing without huge pressure.  Fun times.

[GWSwarrior]

2015-2016 NBA Rookie Scale
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

#18 pick

year 1 = $1.372M
year 2 = $1.433M
year 3 = $1.496M
Total  $4.301  million

Assuming the scale stays the same ...

Question, If Henry returned, where would he have to be drafted next year to make up for the lost $1.372 million from year 1 this year?

Or, what draft position makes him more than $1.372 million, thus making up for the loss of this year's salary.

Answer, #12 next year (again, assuming the scale stays the same)

year 1 = $1.8665M
year 2 = $1.9505M
year 3 = $2.0345
Total  $5.8515  million

So, if Henry stayed and improved his deficiencies, could he have moved up to 12 next year?  If so, he would have been better off staying.

I love how Heisey asks and answers his own stupid questions

[Benny B]

If anyone seriously thinks he would have been better off staying, I'd like to see the logic in detail.  The only way to make that logic work is to project that all goes very well and he increases his value. But to make that work he must increase his value more than other players for next year.  Remember it is all about potential improvement with these guys. 

Plus, as the draft this year proves, being more of an unknown commodity can be a positive for one's draft status (these GM's sure love to fill the void of info with hope, makes me think they are very optimistic people).  Look at the Bucks pick.   If Henry didn't improve his 3 point shot dramatically and his defensive quickness, all of a sudden he is going later, not earlier.  Because it is no longer he has the potential to be a great shooter or get better on defense.  Instead, it is a bigger question mark.  If his team doesn't win two years in a row, hurts him...

Should Wade have stayed because he could have dominated as a Junior and gotten to go top 3 or even number 1 or 2?   Of course not.  It is all about the second contract, where average pay will be closer to 10M a year.

Dominic James logic of coming back, to better himself.  Nothing is guaranteed, and he would have been as likely to go lower than higher.  If Google wants to hire you for 1.4M a year, do you hold out because Apple may hire you a year later if you improve more than those around you for 2M a year?  Gotta take the deal in front of you if it is a great deal.

Henry had to take the apple in front of him instead of hoping for a better apple in the fall if everything works out. Doing anything else would have been poor business and playing the lottery with real money in front of him.  Let's not even talk about injury.... unlikely, but can't be ruled out.

The bolded part is absolutely true.... but many here are overlooking the fact that to cash in at FA, your game needs to be ready by the time you hit FA.  Otherwise, you get stuck into 1- and 2-year contracts making Steve Novak money... which is still great, but if we're going to make this about maximizing career earnings, Steve Novak making Steve Novak money is an unqualified success whereas Henry Ellenson making Steve Novak money would be an utter failure.

Counter-intuitively, I have to believe Henry - or at least his advisers/handlers/parents/Wally - foresaw the possibility of him falling out of the lottery back when he declared.  We can speculate all we want about what was going through his head and how highly he looked upon himself, but he had a lot of people smarter than him, and certainly smarter than most of us, laying everything out.  So frankly, I don't think it was about the money at all -- otherwise, Henry would have stayed in school.  Henry wanted to play in the NBA, and now he will.  Goal accomplished, period.

Now, if all y'all want to insist that it was purely 100% freshly squeezed all about the money, and Henry truly saw himself as a top 5 pick, then the question is, does he even have the EQ to overcome the kind of cerebral damage that falling out of the lottery would cause?  In other words, will he play with a chip on his shoulder and work that much harder to prove the detractors wrong, or will his id get the better of him and cause him to flame out before he even ignites? (hint: the answer is "neither" or "somewhere in between," but hopefully you get the point.)

[Pakuni]

This isn't even a debate, he's so much better off going this year. Why is this even a topic? Common sense prevails here.

-Injury risk
-Time value of money
-Year closer to 2nd contract
-Absolutely loaded 2017 draft

This is everything.

Plus, everyone makes the foolish assumption that Henry would be drafted higher if he had returned.  The opposite is often true. The deficiencies that caused him to fall to 18, i.e. lack of athleticism, weren't going away with another year in college.

[Coleman]

This isn't even a debate, he's so much better off going this year. Why is this even a topic? Common sense prevails here.

-Injury risk
-Time value of money
-Year closer to 2nd contract
-Absolutely loaded 2017 draft

Agree with all these factors.

Not to mention he, in theory, extended the length of his NBA career by one year (assuming he is good enough to stay in the league until "retirement age").