MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Tugg Speedman on June 23, 2016, 11:24:00 PM
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2015-2016 NBA Rookie Scale
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale
#18 pick
year 1 = $1.372M
year 2 = $1.433M
year 3 = $1.496M
Total $4.301 million
Assuming the scale stays the same ...
Question, If Henry returned, where would he have to be drafted next year to make up for the lost $1.372 million from year 1 this year?
Or, what draft position makes him more than $1.372 million, thus making up for the loss of this year's salary.
Answer, #12 next year (again, assuming the scale stays the same)
year 1 = $1.8665M
year 2 = $1.9505M
year 3 = $2.0345
Total $5.8515 million
So, if Henry stayed and improved his deficiencies, could he have moved up to 12 next year? If so, he would have been better off staying.
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Absolutely agree with you Heisey. Even accounting for the time value of money, if he stayed another year and improved his game, he'd be better off staying.
Oh well, here's to a great career for Henry.
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If Dominic James had gone pro after his stellar first season, a similar argument could be made. "If DJ had stayed one more year to work on his outside shot......" Yet the argument would have been invalid. With Henry, he might have been injured during his sophomore year. He might not have improved significantly. You can't know with any certainty.
Now, for my own selfish reasons, I wish Henry had stayed.
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2015-2016 NBA Rookie Scale
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale
#18 pick
year 1 = $1.372M
year 2 = $1.433M
year 3 = $1.496M
Total $4.301 million
Assuming the scale stays the same ...
Question, If Henry returned, where would he have to be drafted next year to make up for the lost $1.372 million from year 1 this year?
Or, what draft position makes him more than $1.372 million, thus making up for the loss of this year's salary.
Answer, #12 next year (again, assuming the scale stays the same)
year 1 = $1.8665M
year 2 = $1.9505M
year 3 = $2.0345
Total $5.8515 million
So, if Henry stayed and improved his deficiencies, could he have moved up to 12 next year? If so, he would have been better off staying.
Not quite. Since he would be getting nothing next year if he stayed AND you are looking at a 3 year contract, the total is actually for the next 4 years. So You need to add the 4th year to his deal for going 18th tonight. That means he makes more money by going a little lower, but one year earlier.
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Not quite. Since he would be getting nothing next year if he stayed AND you are looking at a 3 year contract, the total is actually for the next 4 years. So You need to add the 4th year to his deal for going 18th tonight. That means he makes more money by going a little lower, but one year earlier.
Year 4 is an option year, cannot assume it for these purposes.
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This isn't even a debate, he's so much better off going this year. Why is this even a topic? Common sense prevails here.
-Injury risk
-Time value of money
-Year closer to 2nd contract
-Absolutely loaded 2017 draft
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2015-2016 NBA Rookie Scale
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale
#18 pick
year 1 = $1.372M
year 2 = $1.433M
year 3 = $1.496M
Total $4.301 million
Assuming the scale stays the same ...
Question, If Henry returned, where would he have to be drafted next year to make up for the lost $1.372 million from year 1 this year?
Or, what draft position makes him more than $1.372 million, thus making up for the loss of this year's salary.
Answer, #12 next year (again, assuming the scale stays the same)
year 1 = $1.8665M
year 2 = $1.9505M
year 3 = $2.0345
Total $5.8515 million
So, if Henry stayed and improved his deficiencies, could he have moved up to 12 next year? If so, he would have been better off staying.
You forgot to factor for the one additional year of career earnings.
Lets say Henry can play until he's 30 years old.
Leaving this year, he has 11 total pro earning years--the first three at $4.3 million, and then 8 more seasons. Lets assume the NBA average of $4.9 million. That's a career total of $43.5 million.
Leaving next year, he only has 10 total pro earning years. Even if he makes more his first 3 years at $5.85 million. Problem is that he has only 7 more at the NBA average of $4.9 million. Career total of $40.2 million.
So by sticking around and moving up to the 12th pick, he might make $1.3 million over the first 3 years of his career, but loses $3.3 million over the course of his career.
Bodies don't delay aging simply because you stay in college longer. If the body can endure until age 30, it doesn't care that you spent your 20th year in college or the NBA.
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Year 4 is an option year, cannot assume it for these purposes.
Okay so if Hank had a 3 year basketball playing career sure it would've been better to stay and move up to 12 starting a year later.
Good thing for him is he won't have a 3 year playing career. So his reality is through the 2018-2019 season he'll have made the $4.301M from his rookie contract. Then he'll make, conservatively, $10M in the first year of his second contract, a year in which he'd make $2.0345M if he waited around another year and moved up to #12 overall. Which means he made an extra nearly $8M, making him +$6.5M through the 2019-2020 season.
What people here continue to fail to realize is you aren't playing for your rookie contract. Chances are very, very high he will make more per year on his second contract than he will on his total rookie contract. So putting the second contract off a year is as dumb as it gets.
It's how Wesley Matthews became the highest paid 2nd year player in the NBA after his rookie year. He wasn't even drafted at all...yet was making more than the #1 overall pick because his first contract wasn't 3+ years.
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This is a silly exercise. It is impossible to know what would or wouldn't happen if HE were to stay. Safest move from a financial perspective is to always come out early if you are a guaranteed first round pick. If HE's priority was to be a top ten pick staying might have been better. It also might not have been better. Who knows? All we know is that he was a #18 pick after coming out this year.
I will say this. Anyone who doesn't think HE isn't disappointed by falling to 18 is fooling themselves. However, becoming a millionaire overnight will probably help ease that pain. Hope he uses this to fuel him further and do great things in the NBA.
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This is a silly exercise. It is impossible to know what would or wouldn't happen if HE were to stay. Safest move from a financial perspective is to always come out early if you are a guaranteed first round pick. If HE's priority was to be a top ten pick staying might have been better. It also might not have been better. Who knows? All we know is that he was a #18 pick after coming out this year.
I will say this. Anyone who doesn't think HE isn't disappointed by falling to 18 is fooling themselves. However, becoming a millionaire overnight will probably help ease that pain. Hope he uses this to fuel him further and do great things in the NBA.
Post BREXIT, hope he just loaded up on Gold or mining stocks. Dow will be scary next few days...
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ok, then reality sets in and wakes up monday morning-
year 1- $1,372,000 realizes about $825,000
year 2- $1,430,000 realizes about $858,000 gotta pay uncle sammy his FAIR SHARE Enn'A so hey?
year 3- $1.496,000 realizes about $897,600
totals-$2,550,600
this doesn't include agent, personal trainer or posse but also doesn't include possible endorsements and/or shoe, equipment, etc
i am not complaining or beaching, but just sayin...it's still not bad coin for a pre-20 something year old. but he better have a back up plan and get a 2nd contract as he doens't have a college degree and $2.5 ain't gonna last until 80 ;)
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As the analysis progressed it got strategic, good going scoop. The result of a 10 year analysis is much better than a short term view.
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Year 4 is an option year, cannot assume it for these purposes.
So we can make a bunch of assumptions about where he would go next year without a good understanding of where he fits in a loaded draft class, but we can't assume a 4 year option?
Put it this way, if I were given the following choices:
1. Guaranteed $4.3 million over the next three years, with the distinct possibility of earning a $50 million contract in year four.
OR
2. Taking no compensation in year one, with the possibility (no guarantee) of earning $5.8 million over years 2-4, and the distinct possibility of earning a $50 million contract in year five.
I would take #1 every single day of the week. Not even a question.
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Y'all are full of rectal gas and such. Der is zero reason for Ellenson to have stayed. Its da definition of a no-brainer. Either y'all are jealous, pissed off dat he left, or just plain fookin' ignorant. JC, da kid's realized his dream and procured a well payin' gig. What's so difficult to comprehend, hey?
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Y'all are full of rectal gas and such. Der is zero reason for Ellenson to have stayed. Its da definition of a no-brainer. Either y'all are jealous, pissed off dat he left, or just plain fookin' ignorant. JC, da kid's realized his dream and procured a well payin' gig. What's so difficult to comprehend, hey?
100%
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Y'all are full of rectal gas and such. Der is zero reason for Ellenson to have stayed. Its da definition of a no-brainer. Either y'all are jealous, pissed off dat he left, or just plain fookin' ignorant. JC, da kid's realized his dream and procured a well payin' gig. What's so difficult to comprehend, hey?
+1
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Highest drafted player from MU since D Wade and he's a freshman. Henry just achieved his lifelong dream and couldn't be happier for him. He will make more in his first 3 years than many people make in a career. Rice Lake better hang a billboard in his honor.
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Sorry Heisey... I know it was probably tl;dr for you, but for the record, I beat you to this by nearly three months... plus I offered some balance.
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=51310
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Sorry Heisey... I know it was probably tl;dr for you, but for the record, I beat you to this by nearly three months... plus I offered some balance.
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=51310
But can he copy and paste your post as his own and get his click count up?
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If anyone seriously thinks he would have been better off staying, I'd like to see the logic in detail. The only way to make that logic work is to project that all goes very well and he increases his value. But to make that work he must increase his value more than other players for next year. Remember it is all about potential improvement with these guys.
Plus, as the draft this year proves, being more of an unknown commodity can be a positive for one's draft status (these GM's sure love to fill the void of info with hope, makes me think they are very optimistic people). Look at the Bucks pick. If Henry didn't improve his 3 point shot dramatically and his defensive quickness, all of a sudden he is going later, not earlier. Because it is no longer he has the potential to be a great shooter or get better on defense. Instead, it is a bigger question mark. If his team doesn't win two years in a row, hurts him...
Should Wade have stayed because he could have dominated as a Junior and gotten to go top 3 or even number 1 or 2? Of course not. It is all about the second contract, where average pay will be closer to 10M a year.
Dominic James logic of coming back, to better himself. Nothing is guaranteed, and he would have been as likely to go lower than higher. If Google wants to hire you for 1.4M a year, do you hold out because Apple may hire you a year later if you improve more than those around you for 2M a year? Gotta take the deal in front of you if it is a great deal.
Henry had to take the apple in front of him instead of hoping for a better apple in the fall if everything works out. Doing anything else would have been poor business and playing the lottery with real money in front of him. Let's not even talk about injury.... unlikely, but can't be ruled out.
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The math works well for Henry. He has everything he wants now. Not only is he part of NBA , he landed on a team where he has a decent chance of playing without huge pressure. Fun times.
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2015-2016 NBA Rookie Scale
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale
#18 pick
year 1 = $1.372M
year 2 = $1.433M
year 3 = $1.496M
Total $4.301 million
Assuming the scale stays the same ...
Question, If Henry returned, where would he have to be drafted next year to make up for the lost $1.372 million from year 1 this year?
Or, what draft position makes him more than $1.372 million, thus making up for the loss of this year's salary.
Answer, #12 next year (again, assuming the scale stays the same)
year 1 = $1.8665M
year 2 = $1.9505M
year 3 = $2.0345
Total $5.8515 million
So, if Henry stayed and improved his deficiencies, could he have moved up to 12 next year? If so, he would have been better off staying.
I love how Heisey asks and answers his own stupid questions
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If anyone seriously thinks he would have been better off staying, I'd like to see the logic in detail. The only way to make that logic work is to project that all goes very well and he increases his value. But to make that work he must increase his value more than other players for next year. Remember it is all about potential improvement with these guys.
Plus, as the draft this year proves, being more of an unknown commodity can be a positive for one's draft status (these GM's sure love to fill the void of info with hope, makes me think they are very optimistic people). Look at the Bucks pick. If Henry didn't improve his 3 point shot dramatically and his defensive quickness, all of a sudden he is going later, not earlier. Because it is no longer he has the potential to be a great shooter or get better on defense. Instead, it is a bigger question mark. If his team doesn't win two years in a row, hurts him...
Should Wade have stayed because he could have dominated as a Junior and gotten to go top 3 or even number 1 or 2? Of course not. It is all about the second contract, where average pay will be closer to 10M a year.
Dominic James logic of coming back, to better himself. Nothing is guaranteed, and he would have been as likely to go lower than higher. If Google wants to hire you for 1.4M a year, do you hold out because Apple may hire you a year later if you improve more than those around you for 2M a year? Gotta take the deal in front of you if it is a great deal.
Henry had to take the apple in front of him instead of hoping for a better apple in the fall if everything works out. Doing anything else would have been poor business and playing the lottery with real money in front of him. Let's not even talk about injury.... unlikely, but can't be ruled out.
The bolded part is absolutely true.... but many here are overlooking the fact that to cash in at FA, your game needs to be ready by the time you hit FA. Otherwise, you get stuck into 1- and 2-year contracts making Steve Novak money... which is still great, but if we're going to make this about maximizing career earnings, Steve Novak making Steve Novak money is an unqualified success whereas Henry Ellenson making Steve Novak money would be an utter failure.
Counter-intuitively, I have to believe Henry - or at least his advisers/handlers/parents/Wally - foresaw the possibility of him falling out of the lottery back when he declared. We can speculate all we want about what was going through his head and how highly he looked upon himself, but he had a lot of people smarter than him, and certainly smarter than most of us, laying everything out. So frankly, I don't think it was about the money at all -- otherwise, Henry would have stayed in school. Henry wanted to play in the NBA, and now he will. Goal accomplished, period.
Now, if all y'all want to insist that it was purely 100% freshly squeezed all about the money, and Henry truly saw himself as a top 5 pick, then the question is, does he even have the EQ to overcome the kind of cerebral damage that falling out of the lottery would cause? In other words, will he play with a chip on his shoulder and work that much harder to prove the detractors wrong, or will his id get the better of him and cause him to flame out before he even ignites? (hint: the answer is "neither" or "somewhere in between," but hopefully you get the point.)
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This isn't even a debate, he's so much better off going this year. Why is this even a topic? Common sense prevails here.
-Injury risk
-Time value of money
-Year closer to 2nd contract
-Absolutely loaded 2017 draft
This is everything.
Plus, everyone makes the foolish assumption that Henry would be drafted higher if he had returned. The opposite is often true. The deficiencies that caused him to fall to 18, i.e. lack of athleticism, weren't going away with another year in college.
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This isn't even a debate, he's so much better off going this year. Why is this even a topic? Common sense prevails here.
-Injury risk
-Time value of money
-Year closer to 2nd contract
-Absolutely loaded 2017 draft
Agree with all these factors.
Not to mention he, in theory, extended the length of his NBA career by one year (assuming he is good enough to stay in the league until "retirement age").
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You forgot to factor for the one additional year of career earnings.
Lets say Henry can play until he's 30 years old.
Leaving this year, he has 11 total pro earning years--the first three at $4.3 million, and then 8 more seasons. Lets assume the NBA average of $4.9 million. That's a career total of $43.5 million.
Leaving next year, he only has 10 total pro earning years. Even if he makes more his first 3 years at $5.85 million. Problem is that he has only 7 more at the NBA average of $4.9 million. Career total of $40.2 million.
So by sticking around and moving up to the 12th pick, he might make $1.3 million over the first 3 years of his career, but loses $3.3 million over the course of his career.
Bodies don't delay aging simply because you stay in college longer. If the body can endure until age 30, it doesn't care that you spent your 20th year in college or the NBA.
Beat me to the punch. You're absolutely correct.
There was no reason for Henry to stay.
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There was a first round pick who did not hire an agent. I forgot who it was, but he felt he was smart enough to represent himself. I think there was also an MU player that did this (maybe Butler). Given that Henry dropped to 18th did his agent really help him? I did not follow the process closely, but I though Henry did not attend the combine on his agent's advice. What do you think? Did Henry get enough value from hiring an agent?
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A fatal flaw everyone seems to be making is that everyone is assuming that money is Henry's top priority. It certainly could be. It would be for me. But that's not true of all players. And when you are going to make as much as Henry will in his career, you are more willing to sacrifice some cash for other benefits. Maybe HE really wanted to be a lottery pick. Maybe he wants instant playing time. Maybe he wants to play for a winning team. Only Henry knows. Did he get what he wanted last night? IDK. But I'd guess he expected to go higher than he did. Even if he is disappointed by where he was picked he can still be proud. He has reached a level in his field that most of us can only dream of reaching. Would it have been better had he stayed? Financially? Probably not. Other areas? Who knows?
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What's so difficult to comprehend, hey?
Frequently, your posts.
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There was a first round pick who did not hire an agent. I forgot who it was, but he felt he was smart enough to represent himself. I think there was also an MU player that did this (maybe Butler). Given that Henry dropped to 18th did his agent really help him? I did not follow the process closely, but I though Henry did not attend the combine on his agent's advice. What do you think? Did Henry get enough value from hiring an agent?
Agent also helps with non basketball related items like endorsements. Too early to tell how good his representation is.
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Y'all are full of rectal gas and such. Der is zero reason for Ellenson to have stayed. Its da definition of a no-brainer. Either y'all are jealous, pissed off dat he left, or just plain fookin' ignorant. JC, da kid's realized his dream and procured a well payin' gig. What's so difficult to comprehend, hey?
RIGHT ON!
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Frequently, your posts.
Winner
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IMO HE came to MU with plan and executed at a very high level. I am sure there might be some disappointment on being #18 but do not think in the long run it is going mean much. It was a no brained decision and coming back would have been a risk that would not have been worth it. The kid is going to make crazy money and I wish him luck.
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Frequently, your posts.
Well played.
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Agent also helps with non basketball related items like endorsements. Too early to tell how good his representation is.
He signed with Jay-Z and then proceeded to get drafted worse than any thought.
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He signed with Jay-Z and then proceeded to get drafted worse than any thought.
Yeah Jay-Z is why Hank slid.
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Yeah Jay-Z is why Hank slid.
Isn't an agent supposed to help them increase their draft value?
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Isn't an agent supposed to help them increase their draft value?
Provide a better rebounder and feeder for his spot up jump shots at workouts or...?
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Provide a better rebounder and feeder for his spot up jump shots at workouts or...?
I thought the reason you signed with an agent is they provide you with trainers, set up training schedules, help you prepare for the combine and set up team workouts., They then talked to the GM to sell then on drafting you.
Also, Henry did not go to the combine, on the advice of his agent, and he was not a lottery pick (top 14 are lottery). Was that a good call?
I guess all that is wrong and you just exposed one of the biggest frauds in the NBA, signing an agent. Because you apparently think they do nothing but arrange shoe deals after the fact.
Otherwise it sure looks like Jay-Z is not earning his fee. Henry is making millions less than he thought he would just 24 hours ago.
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I thought the reason you signed with an agent is they provide you with trainers, set up training schedules, help you prepare for the combine and set up team workouts., They then talked to the GM to sell then on drafting you.
Also, Henry did not go to the combine, on the advice of his agent, and he was not a lottery pick (top 14 are lottery). Was that a good call?
I guess all that is wrong and you just exposed one of the biggest frauds in the NBA, signing an agent. Because you apparently think they do nothing but arrange shoe deals after the fact.
Otherwise it sure looks like Jay-Z is not earning his fee. Henry is making millions less than he thought he would just 24 hours ago.
Agents schedule training for athletes?
Honest question. I've never heard that before.
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I thought the reason you signed with an agent is they provide you with trainers, set up training schedules, help you prepare for the combine and set up team workouts., They then talked to the GM to sell then on drafting you.
Also, Henry did not go to the combine, on the advice of his agent, and he was not a lottery pick (top 14 are lottery). Was that a good call?
I guess all that is wrong and you just exposed one of the biggest frauds in the NBA, signing an agent. Because you apparently think they do nothing but arrange shoe deals after the fact.
Otherwise it sure looks like Jay-Z is not earning his fee. Henry is making millions less than he thought he would just 24 hours ago.
So you think that some NBA GM is going to be listening to some guy who has never played basketball in his life and gets a cut of this player's contract when it comes to who they're going to draft? Well, if you think so.
Jay-Z's agency is horrible, Thon Maker's agent is the greatest.
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It's obvious that GM's do not want the distraction of Jay-Z and his band of thugs around the team. This is why no teams will be pursuing Kevin Durant this summer.
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I thought the reason you signed with an agent is they provide you with trainers, set up training schedules, help you prepare for the combine and set up team workouts., They then talked to the GM to sell then on drafting you.
Also, Henry did not go to the combine, on the advice of his agent, and he was not a lottery pick (top 14 are lottery). Was that a good call?
I guess all that is wrong and you just exposed one of the biggest frauds in the NBA, signing an agent. Because you apparently think they do nothing but arrange shoe deals after the fact.
Otherwise it sure looks like Jay-Z is not earning his fee. Henry is making millions less than he thought he would just 24 hours ago.
Heisey gonna Heisey.
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I thought the reason you signed with an agent is they provide you with trainers, set up training schedules, help you prepare for the combine and set up team workouts., They then talked to the GM to sell then on drafting you.
Also, Henry did not go to the combine, on the advice of his agent, and he was not a lottery pick (top 14 are lottery). Was that a good call?
I guess all that is wrong and you just exposed one of the biggest frauds in the NBA, signing an agent. Because you apparently think they do nothing but arrange shoe deals after the fact.
Otherwise it sure looks like Jay-Z is not earning his fee. Henry is making millions less than he thought he would just 24 hours ago.
(http://24.media.tumblr.com/9b64734480c8617bb1209bc5884732e6/tumblr_mqz83juXQU1qaarijo2_500.gif)
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Agents schedule training for athletes?
Honest question. I've never heard that before.
When players leave school and go to trainers in Florida and/or CA, how does a player find out about them, and get in with them? A 19 year old and his parents do it word of mouth? Ask your college coach for a recommendation and text them to see if they have time to talk?
Answer, that is why you hire a agent. They set these things up for you. They get people to coach you for GM questions. They guide you through the process.
I get you like to argue with me, but honestly, what is the point of an agent? What purpose do they serve? Anyone want to take a stab at it?
And how does an agent do a bad job? Did Jay-Z (or Rock Management) oversell Henry on where he was going and how much money he was getting? Is that why his draft position is generally viewed as disappointing?
And yes, someone coached Thon on the NBA process. Who do you think that was? You think an 18 year old from Australia who had nmever been in the Midwest before booked a ticket on cheap-o air and took an Uber from Mitchell for his tryout with the Bucks? Or did he hire someone to help him with the process? Does that someone go by the name of "Agent?"
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Agents schedule training for athletes?
Honest question. I've never heard that before.
Know a little 'bout da process goin' back ta last year. An agent basically handles ya and all aspects of marketin' da athlete from da day da ol' John Hancock meets da agent's contract. Dey'll hook ya up wit a vehicle, digs, trainers, coach ya on interviewin', combine advice, team workout schedules, endorsements, etc., hey?
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Know a little 'bout da process goin' back ta last year. An agent basically handles ya and all aspects of marketin' da athlete from da day da ol' John Hancock meets da agent's contract. Dey'll hook ya up wit a vehicle, digs, trainers, coach ya on interviewin', combine advice, team workout schedules, endorsements, etc., hey?
Thank you
Jay-Z (Rock) guided Henry though every little detail on the draft process and took someone that was expected to go between 9th (Bilas) and 14th) and turned them into an 18th pick.
How much is that on the Agent/Guide that took him on the process? Isn't the Agent supposed to know where he is going? Don't you pay him several thousands of dollars for that insight?
If not, again, what purpose do they serve?
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This isn't even a debate, he's so much better off going this year. Why is this even a topic? Common sense prevails here.
-Injury risk
-Time value of money
-Year closer to 2nd contract
-Absolutely loaded 2017 draft
Exactly.
Heisy is only correct if Henry plays 3 years or less.
Otherwise he is much better off financially going this year - even as a lower pick.
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When players leave school and go to trainers in Florida and/or CA, how does a player find out about them, and get in with them? A 19 year old and his parents do it word of mouth? Ask your college coach for a recommendation and text them to see if they have time to talk?
Answer, that is why you hire a agent. They set these things up for you. They get people to coach you for GM questions. They guide you through the process.
I get you like to argue with me, but honestly, what is the point of an agent? What purpose do they serve? Anyone want to take a stab at it?
And how does an agent do a bad job? Did Jay-Z (or Rock Management) oversell Henry on where he was going and how much money he was getting? Is that why his draft position is generally viewed as disappointing?
And yes, someone coached Thon on the NBA process. Who do you think that was? You think an 18 year old from Australia who had nmever been in the Midwest before booked a ticket on cheap-o air and took an Uber from Mitchell for his tryout with the Bucks? Or did he hire someone to help him with the process? Does that someone go by the name of "Agent?"
Yeah, Thon's agent took care of all of this, but Hank's left him out to dry. That's why Thon's a top 10 pick and Hank isn't.
You literally contradict yourself over and over and over.
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Thank you
Jay-Z (Rock) guided Henry though every little detail on the draft process and took someone that was expected to go between 9th (Bilas) and 14th) and turned them into an 18th pick.
How much is that on the Agent/Guide that took him on the process? Isn't the Agent supposed to know where he is going? Don't you pay him several thousands of dollars for that insight?
If not, again, what purpose do they serve?
So now your position is changing from "Jay-Z is the reason Hank dropped out of the lottery" to "Jay-Z should've known Hank was dropping out of the lottery?"
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Thank you
Jay-Z (Rock) guided Henry though every little detail on the draft process and took someone that was expected to go between 9th (Bilas) and 14th) and turned them into an 18th pick.
How much is that on the Agent/Guide that took him on the process? Isn't the Agent supposed to know where he is going? Don't you pay him several thousands of dollars for that insight?
If not, again, what purpose do they serve?
Da agent can't make shinola outta chit. Teams do der due diligence also. Dey check injury, character, coachabilty issues, etc. If da playas fook up der contact wit a team, dats on them and not da agent, ai na?
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So now your position is changing from "Jay-Z is the reason Hank dropped out of the lottery" to "Jay-Z should've known Hank was dropping out of the lottery?"
Either way you get to the same place ... a disappointing draft position.
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Either way you get to the same place ... a disappointing draft position.
But in one it's because Hank signed with Jay-Z and in the other it's because Hank's stock fell.
I think Hank will be okay.
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But in one it's because Hank signed with Jay-Z and in the other it's because Hank's stock fell.
I think Hank will be okay.
Yes Hank will be fine.
The dirty little secret is being in the NBA is hard work and a real grind. A lot of players (Bull's Noah) have said college is a lot more fun and you should stay as long as possible. See Jahill Okafor, he almost said he still wishes he was at Duke, being a 76ers sucks.
I wonder if Hank will feel the same away around January.
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Yes Hank will be fine.
The dirty little secret is being in the NBA is hard work and a real grind. A lot of players (Bull's Noah) have said college is a lot more fun and you should stay as long as possible. See Jahill Okafor, he almost said he still wishes he was at Duke, being a 76ers sucks.
I wonder if Hank will feel the same away around January.
Well Shabazz Napier said he was starved while at UConn so I think most people would be okay with a little bit more of a grind to be able to eat.
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2015-2016 NBA Rookie Scale
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale
#18 pick
year 1 = $1.372M
year 2 = $1.433M
year 3 = $1.496M
Total $4.301 million
Assuming the scale stays the same ...
Question, If Henry returned, where would he have to be drafted next year to make up for the lost $1.372 million from year 1 this year?
Or, what draft position makes him more than $1.372 million, thus making up for the loss of this year's salary.
Answer, #12 next year (again, assuming the scale stays the same)
year 1 = $1.8665M
year 2 = $1.9505M
year 3 = $2.0345
Total $5.8515 million
So, if Henry stayed and improved his deficiencies, could he have moved up to 12 next year? If so, he would have been better off staying.
Your math & basic logic is completely eff'd.
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Don't know if it's been mentioned, but biggest perk of this is that there not as much pressure for hank with the Pistons versus a lottery team.
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Frequently, your posts.
Leave him alone. He's old.
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Don't know if it's been mentioned, but biggest perk of this is that there not as much pressure for hank with the Pistons versus a lottery team.
Agreed. He is going into a good situation.
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Absolutely agree with you Heisey. Even accounting for the time value of money, if he stayed another year and improved his game, he'd be better off staying.
Oh well, here's to a great career for Henry.
He would have to improve his game pretty significantly to get drafted higher next year. This is the biggest faulty assumption many of you are making. It is very possible that Henry could return, improve his game, and still get drafted worse than #18. Also very possible that he misses time for injury, doesn't improve his game significantly, and ends up a second rounder or forced to return for his Junior year.
I'm having a really hard time understanding why anyone would be questioning Henry's decision, given these scenarios.
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He would have to improve his game pretty significantly to get drafted higher next year. This is the biggest faulty assumption many of you are making. It is very possible that Henry could return, improve his game, and still get drafted worse than #18. Also very possible that he misses time for injury, doesn't improve his game significantly, and ends up a second rounder or forced to return for his Junior year.
I'm having a really hard time understanding why anyone would be questioning Henry's decision, given these scenarios.
If any of that happens, he's not getting a second contract ... he's Lazar Hayward.
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If any of that happens, he's not getting a second contract ... he's Lazar Hayward.
And if what you are saying is true, then he would have made an even bigger mistake by staying in school.
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So is it ever a mistake to come out early?
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So is it ever a mistake to come out early?
Exhibit A: Vander Blue
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Exhibit A: Vander Blue
Wouldn't he have been one year delayed to the D-League and in the same situation? o why was it a mistake?
How would Vander have improved his situation by returning for his senior year?
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Wouldn't he have been one year delayed to the D-League and in the same situation? o why was it a mistake?
How would Vander have improved his situation by returning for his senior year?
I thought ,while listening to all the commentary last night on Denzell Valentine, that Vander could have put himself in a similar position with a big Senior Season. Lots of the commentators focused on the fact that the biggest thing Denzell brought to the table was that he could actually actually play basketball well as opposed to just being a physical specimen.
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I thought ,while listening to all the commentary last night on Denzell Valentine, that Vander could have put himself in a similar position with a big Senior Season. Lots of the commentators focused on the fact that the biggest thing Denzell brought to the table was that he could actually actually play basketball well as opposed to just being a physical specimen.
Not this again.
Vander would not have been any better than he is now. Borderline NBA talent at best.
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So is it ever a mistake to come out early?
Not if you are a first round pick.
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Not if you are a first round pick.
So Stone made a mistake?
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This has been an enjoyable back-and-forth.
Especially enjoyable watching Heisy's thesis -- many theses, actually -- batted back and forth like a ping-pong ball with a crack in it.
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Heisenberg logic:
A: "OK bud, you won the bet. I owe you $20, payable $10 this year, $10 next year."
H: "cool!"
A: "instead of paying you $10 each year.. how about I offer this up? I will give you $15!!!!! 150%!!! but only next year!"
H: "Woah! I was only get a max of $10 either year! $15 next year sounds awesome! yeah bud let's do it!!!"
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So Stone made a mistake?
Depends on what his priorities are and how the next couple of years work out for him.
What point are you trying to make with this anyway? Are you trying to nail down some sort of objective criteria that will allow you to immediately determine if a player made a poor decision by leaving early? That is as impossible as it is pointless.
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Seriously, I'm asking questions to get opinions. I really have no opinion myself on when or why a player should leave early.
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Wouldn't he have been one year delayed to the D-League and in the same situation? o why was it a mistake?
How would Vander have improved his situation by returning for his senior year?
I know you are being sarcastic but this post is probably closer to being accurate than the hypothetical scenario where Vander returns to school and magically becomes Denzel Valentine.
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I know you are being sarcastic but this post is probably closer to being accurate than the hypothetical scenario where Vander returns to school and magically becomes Denzel Valentine.
Vander was tracking Denzells progress in college. It is not at all magical that he could have a monster senior year with us. In fact Denzell was a questionable player his first two years just like Vander. He did not start truly blossoming until the big game he had versus us when he found his three point touch and then built his junior season from there. I think your forgetting how good Vander was by the end of his junior year.
Denzell
Freshman 5.0
Sophomore 8.0
Junior 14.5
Senior 19.2
Vander
Freshman 5.1
Sophomore 8.4
Junior 14.8
Senior DNP College Went Overseas and Cup of Coffee in NBA
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If Dominic James had gone pro after his stellar first season, a similar argument could be made. "If DJ had stayed one more year to work on his outside shot......" Yet the argument would have been invalid. With Henry, he might have been injured during his sophomore year. He might not have improved significantly. You can't know with any certainty.
Now, for my own selfish reasons, I wish Henry had stayed.
True, but Dominic James is such a rare exception. I ran thousands of careers of four year players and it was unheard of to have the freshman year be the best year. In value add terms a player typically more than doubles between freshman and sophomore season and then levels out. I think it takes a dramatic change in lineup, in that case losing one of the greatest three-point shooters in Novak so teams could start collapsing on the drive.
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Vander was tracking Denzells progress in college. It is not at all magical that he could have a monster senior year with us. In fact Denzell was a questionable player his first two years just like Vander. He did not start truly blossoming until the big game he had versus us when he found his three point touch and then built his junior season from there. I think your forgetting how good Vander was by the end of his junior year.
Denzell
Freshman 5.0
Sophomore 8.0
Junior 14.5
Senior 19.2
Vander
Freshman 5.1
Sophomore 8.4
Junior 14.8
Senior DNP College Went Overseas and Cup of Coffee in NBA
I'm not forgetting how good Vander was. I just think it is very unlikely that in his senior season at MU he would average 19 ppg, 7 rpg, 7 apg, and 44% 3P% while earning the AP player of the year award. Not to mention Vander would have to increase his height and weight while simultaneously developing a lot of intangible qualities that made Valentine one of the best leaders and all-around players in MSU history.
All of the above contributed to Valentine's draft position. Interesting that you chose to cherry pick literally the only significant stat category (ppg) where Vander was comparable to Valentine.
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So Stone made a mistake?
I think Stone should have stayed. But neither know him nor his situation. Without that information, I can't really judge.
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Exhibit A: Vander Blue
Nope.
Because the reasons Vander wasn't drafted are the same reasons he hasn't been able to stick on an NBA roster, and those reasons have nothing to do with whether he played another years of college ball.
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Nope.
Because the reasons Vander wasn't drafted are the same reasons he hasn't been able to stick on an NBA roster, and those reasons have nothing to do with whether he played another years of college ball.
To me Vander often made poor decisions on the court. His junior year he significantly improved in that category. Playing another year of college may of resulted in him improving again in his on court decision making. Also, if he had stayed he may of played point at MU. Who knows if this would of been enough for him to get a first round draft choice like Denzell, which would have given him three years to develop into an NBA player. Going early did not help him and we do not know what staying would of done for him.
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Vander was tracking Denzells progress in college. It is not at all magical that he could have a monster senior year with us. In fact Denzell was a questionable player his first two years just like Vander. He did not start truly blossoming until the big game he had versus us when he found his three point touch and then built his junior season from there. I think your forgetting how good Vander was by the end of his junior year.
Denzell
Freshman 5.0
Sophomore 8.0
Junior 14.5
Senior 19.2
Vander
Freshman 5.1
Sophomore 8.4
Junior 14.8
Senior DNP College Went Overseas and Cup of Coffee in NBA
This analysis is broken. What does PPG tell you? Not a lot.
Sophomore year, per above:
Vander 8.4, DV 8.0. Looks good, but...
Vander: 95.6 Ortg, 21% usage, 43.0% eFG%
DV: 106.9 Ortg, 18% usage, 48.9% eFG%
As juniors.. again, Vander w/ higher PPG, but so what?:
Vander:104.2 Ortg, 24% usage, 50.4% eFG
DV: 114.2 Ortg, 24% usage, 55.7% eFG%
Their numbers were not even close.
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I guess I get that the draft just happened, but how long are we going to rehash Henry's decision to go pro? He's gone. What else is there to really say? Thanks, goodnight, and good luck.
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I guess I get that the draft just happened, but how long are we going to rehash Henry's decision to go pro? He's gone. What else is there to really say? Thanks, goodnight, and good luck.
That's why I tried to change the subject back to Vander. We can beat that llama forever.
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To me Vander often made poor decisions on the court. His junior year he significantly improved in that category. Playing another year of college may of resulted in him improving again in his on court decision making. Also, if he had stayed he may of played point at MU. Who knows if this would of been enough for him to get a first round draft choice like Denzell, which would have given him three years to develop into an NBA player. Going early did not help him and we do not know what staying would of done for him.
Decision making isn't why Vander wasn't drafted. He wasn't drafted because he lacks a true position. His combination of size and lack of shooting means he's not a 2 in the NBA, and he lacks the ball skills to run the point. I just don't see 30ish games in college doing for him what his 150ish D-league/summer league games haven't.
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Vander wasn't a good enough basketball player to overcome his size limitations and other shortcomings.
And he still isn't a good enough basketball player to overcome his size limitations and other shortcomings.
It's funny that some simply don't get this.
As for Dominic James being such an outlier, I believe Dee Brown would have been most intriguing to NBA teams had he gone pro after his freshman year at Illinois.
Brown's best statistical season actually was when he was a junior and backcourt partner Deron Williams carried the Illini to the national title game, but Brown got hurt during workouts -- which might or might not have been a blessing in disguise because he probably wouldn't have been drafted.
He returned for his senior year and was allowed to play 35+ mpg at PG. He did fairly well for a 26-7 team and was drafted in the 2nd round (46th overall) by Utah. But the Jazz learned in Brown's first season that he was not a good enough shooter, playmaker or finisher to compensate for his size disadvantage, and he played only 19 more NBA games.
I strongly doubt Vander would have been a legit pro prospect had he stuck around for his senior season and played PG.
Though at least I will acknowledge we will never know -- unlike those who strangely are SURE that a fourth season at MU would have all but guaranteed Vander an NBA career.
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At the risk of being a debate killjoy, what we think is immaterial. Henry went to the draft, hired an agent and was drafted in the first round.
All we should do as good Warriors is wish him well, thank him for the fun we had watching him last year and hope the pride of Rice Lake becomes an NBA superstar. It will be good for Marquette. It will be good for Rice Lake and it will be good for the State of Wisconsin.
Anything else is debating what can't be debated. I have my feelings, as I've expressed in here, but no longer do they matter (not that they ever did LOL).
Go get 'em Henry.
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Vander wasn't a good enough basketball player to overcome his size limitations and other shortcomings.
And he still isn't a good enough basketball player to overcome his size limitations and other shortcomings.
It's funny that some simply don't get this.
As for Dominic James being such an outlier, I believe Dee Brown would have been most intriguing to NBA teams had he gone pro after his freshman year at Illinois.
Brown's best statistical season actually was when he was a junior and backcourt partner Deron Williams carried the Illini to the national title game, but Brown got hurt during workouts -- which might or might not have been a blessing in disguise because he probably wouldn't have been drafted.
He returned for his senior year and was allowed to play 35+ mpg at PG. He did fairly well for a 26-7 team and was drafted in the 2nd round (46th overall) by Utah. But the Jazz learned in Brown's first season that he was not a good enough shooter, playmaker or finisher to compensate for his size disadvantage, and he played only 19 more NBA games.
I strongly doubt Vander would have been a legit pro prospect had he stuck around for his senior season and played PG.
Though at least I will acknowledge we will never know -- unlike those who strangely are SURE that a fourth season at MU would have all but guaranteed Vander an NBA career.
There is a misguided notion that all the NBA values is potential future performance and that they discount current performance. NBA values guys who have proven they can perform at a very high level in college. My position is Vander would have performed very well as a college senior , as evidenced by his strong play his first year as a pro in the D League and overseas , and subsequent trend upward in D League the next two years. Hence , I strongly believe with a very good senior season , Vander would most likely have been drafted, probably somewhere in the middle of the second round.
All that said, would it have changed his NBA trajectory? My sense is only marginally.In that the team that drafted him had some skin in the game, and as Mr. Chicos pointed out that currency can be used with other teams for a while.
Ultimately, Vander still has to find that one GM/Coach that believes enough in him to give him more than a cup of coffee. I am hoping that happens this year. Otherwise I think he needs to carefully review his options and consider the path that DJO is obviously enjoying.
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See, I remember the Dee Brown situation differently. I thought he was actually making strides with the Jazz before he got hurt and never really recovered from it.
There's a real simple formula to become a NBA player if you're a fringe player. Be long, athletic, a good shooter and a good defender. That's why Nader got drafted, he has a 7 foot wing span and can shoot and play defense.
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All that said, would it have changed his NBA trajectory? My sense is only marginally.In that the team that drafted him had some skin in the game, and as Mr. Chicos pointed out that currency can be used with other teams for a while.
Mr. Chicos pointed out, repeatedly, that his peeps were sure Vander would have been a first-round draft pick had Vander come back for his senior season.
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See, I remember the Dee Brown situation differently. I thought he was actually making strides with the Jazz before he got hurt and never really recovered from it.
Dee had no chance of being a long-term NBA player. The thing that made him a good (not great) college player was his quickness. In the NBA, there are hundreds of quick players, and most are bigger and more skilled than Dee Brown.
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There is a misguided notion that all the NBA values is potential future performance and that they discount current performance. NBA values guys who have proven they can perform at a very high level in college. My position is Vander would have performed very well as a college senior , as evidenced by his strong play his first year as a pro in the D League and overseas , and subsequent trend upward in D League the next two years. Hence , I strongly believe with a very good senior season , Vander would most likely have been drafted, probably somewhere in the middle of the second round.
All that said, would it have changed his NBA trajectory? My sense is only marginally.In that the team that drafted him had some skin in the game, and as Mr. Chicos pointed out that currency can be used with other teams for a while.
Ultimately, Vander still has to find that one GM/Coach that believes enough in him to give him more than a cup of coffee. I am hoping that happens this year. Otherwise I think he needs to carefully review his options and consider the path that DJO is obviously enjoying.
Interesting how you describe what a mid-second round player should be/do. And I agree with you.
Now go over and look at the diamond stone thread. He was the 10th pick in the second round which sounds like a mid-second round pick. But some expect him on opening day to average 12 to 15 minutes a game and start by the end of the season.
Funny how one mid-second run pick has his ticket straight to the D league and another mid-second round pick has a ticket straight to starting.
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Vander wasn't a good enough basketball player to overcome his size limitations and other shortcomings.
And he still isn't a good enough basketball player to overcome his size limitations and other shortcomings.
Given Vander's skill set, what height would he need to be to stick in the league?
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Interesting how you describe what a mid-second round player should be/do. And I agree with you.
Now go over and look at the diamond stone thread. He was the 10th pick in the second round which sounds like a mid-second round pick. But some expect him on opening day to average 12 to 15 minutes a game and start by the end of the season.
Funny how one mid-second run pick has his ticket straight to the D league and another mid-second round pick has a ticket straight to starting.
Vander wasn't a mid 2nd round pick.
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Vander was one of the rare few who could have theoretically improved his draft stock by returning. He had two major holes in his game, 3p shooting and pg experience. If he had come back and showed significant improvement in those areas, he would have been drafted.
However, given that he didn't show improvement in those areas in the d league, it was unlikely he was going to do that in college so he probably would've been outta luck either way.
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Vander's long range shooting has improved fairly significantly. Really seems like he's just another good college player that isn't cut out for the NBA. For every good college player that gets drafted, there's 10 that don't.
At this point, drafted or undrafted is irrelevant. He could have proved it as a senior and didn't. He could have proved it in the D-League and hasn't. Hope the kid finds his niche, but at this point, it doesn't look like it's in the NBA.
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Mr. Chicos pointed out, repeatedly, that his peeps were sure Vander would have been a first-round draft pick had Vander come back for his senior season.
Far be it for me to defend anything Chicos, but I'm skeptical that even Chicos would have said this.... so Imma gonna play the old 'source?' card here if ya don't mind.
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Far be it for me to defend anything Chicos, but I'm skeptical that even Chicos would have said this.... so Imma gonna play the old 'source?' card here if ya don't mind.
Not quite as definitive but...
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=51935.msg842664#msg842664
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Not quite as definitive but...
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=51935.msg842664#msg842664
Ok... it's not exactly an original statement on his part, so I think we should recognize that; however, I'll concede the lunacy - whether groupthink or otherwise - was definitely there.
My only question is was Chicos hoopalooping hoopsafannin' in that thread?
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Given Vander's skill set, what height would he need to be to stick in the league?
Height's only part of it. Strength is another. And middling ballhandling and shooting skills are others.
If you're a skinny 6-4 guy, you'd better really be able to play. I'd say the same if he were a skinny 6-6 guy.
So I stand by what I said earlier: And he still isn't a good enough basketball player to overcome his size limitations and other shortcomings.
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I will be glad when the season starts up so we can quit talking about a one-year player whose impact didn't take MU to the postseason. He was a nice player and good luck to him in the future, but I will remember more Jake Thomas' impact on MU (Syracuse 4-point play) than I will those of Henry Ellenson and another lost season.
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I will be glad when the season starts up so we can quit talking about a one-year player whose impact didn't take MU to the postseason. He was a nice player and good luck to him in the future, but I will remember more Jake Thomas' impact on MU (Syracuse 4-point play) than I will those of Henry Ellenson and another lost season.
To be fair, the lack of a post-season was due to the play of all those other inexperienced teammates. He was not the problem.
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I will be glad when the season starts up so we can quit talking about a one-year player whose impact didn't take MU to the postseason. He was a nice player and good luck to him in the future, but I will remember more Jake Thomas' impact on MU (Syracuse 4-point play) than I will those of Henry Ellenson and another lost season.
The funny thing is you're probably right. I had such a great view of it. It happened right in front of me.
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The funny thing is you're probably right. I had such a great view of it. It happened right in front of me.
I re-watch that shot on YouTube once in awhile. MU needed that game and would go on to win a share of the BEAST that year and I consider that a feat only surpassed by making a Final Four. Considering MU's past as an independent followed by membership in the crap conferences prior, winning that league against those teams was an elite accomplishment.
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I will be glad when the season starts up so we can quit talking about a one-year player whose impact didn't take MU to the postseason. He was a nice player and good luck to him in the future, but I will remember more Jake Thomas' impact on MU (Syracuse 4-point play) than I will those of Henry Ellenson and another lost season.
You can quit talking about him any time you want.
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I will be glad when the season starts up so we can quit talking about a one-year player whose impact didn't take MU to the postseason. He was a nice player and good luck to him in the future, but I will remember more Jake Thomas' impact on MU (Syracuse 4-point play) than I will those of Henry Ellenson and another lost season.
Cool.
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Peeps loves them that Jake Thomas 4 but ...
Syracuse was leading 29-19. Davante scored to pull us within 8. Jake then hit his 4-point play to make it 29-25. Junior scored to pull us within 2 and we took a 37-36 lead early in the second half. However, Syracuse used an 8-0 run to go up 44-37. We were still losing by seven, 53-46, with 7:48 to go before Davante and Mayo rallied us to victory. With Jake's butt firmly nailed to the bench, Mayo hit two huge 3s during the winning rally.
I think Buzz at one point called Jake's 4 the biggest shot of the season. Buzz said a lot of weird things that we now know had little basis in truth.
It was a cool shot -- and definitely an unexpected play given that Jake made 10 threes all season and shot 27.8% from behind the arc. But if results actually matter, it probably wasn't even the most important shot of that game.
Without Junior's 3, we lose to UConn. Period.
Without Vander's drive, we suffer the biggest upset of the NCAA tournament. Period.
Both were SIGNIFICANTLY bigger shots than Jake's 4. I mean, not even freakin' close.
For that matter, Vander's tie-breaking drive to beat St. John's and win us a share of the Big East title also was much, much bigger than Jake's 4.
Pretty easy to argue that the 3's that Jamil and Vander hit to set up Vander's winning play against Davidson also were far bigger than Jake's shot.
Jake's 4 provided a spark (although, as I said, not enough of a spark to keep Syracuse from increasing its lead again). And he was OK as a senior (even though he was part of the worst starting backcourt of the 2013-14 Big East season, IMHO).
But to suggest he had a bigger impact on Marquette basketball than Henry Ellenson ... that's a giggler.
Henry made more big plays in November than Jake did in two forgettable years. And our ability to sign a 1-and-done first-round draft pick says quite a bit about Wojo. Of course, Buzz feeling he had no better option at 2-guard in 2013-14 than Jake Thomas says a lot about Buzz, too.
Jeesh.
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Bigger impact, no. More memorable? Absolutely.
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Bigger impact, no. More memorable? Absolutely.
Not for me.
The main thing I remember about Jake Thomas was that Buzz couldn't field a better backcourt than Jake and Derrick.
Jake was not even a bit player on an excellent MU team and was an accidental starter on one of the most disappointing MU teams in years. Henry was a stud on an inexperienced team that hopefully will have played a role in the rejuvenation of Marquette basketball.
But if you want to remember Jake Thomas more fondly than Henry Ellenson, that's cool.
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Bigger impact, no. More memorable? Absolutely.
Jake Thomas was more memorable than Henry Ellenson??
What. The. F**k?
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The reason I remember Jake's shot is because the BC absolutely erupted. Henry never got the joint jumping like that. Better player, more memorable overall, but for a single moment, that shot by Jake was pretty epic.
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The reason I remember Jake's shot is because the BC absolutely erupted. Henry never got the joint jumping like that. Better player, more memorable overall, but for a single moment, that shot by Jake was pretty epic.
Yup, can't pull out a single moment from Henry off the top of my head. Before people accuse me of saying that he's not a good player, no that's not what I'm saying, just a pretty meh season with nothing that stands out.
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The reason I remember Jake's shot is because the BC absolutely erupted. Henry never got the joint jumping like that. Better player, more memorable overall, but for a single moment, that shot by Jake was pretty epic.
Yup, can't pull out a single moment from Henry off the top of my head. Before people accuse me of saying that he's not a good player, no that's not what I'm saying, just a pretty meh season with nothing that stands out.
You boys must not have been at the BC for the Butler game this year. No, it wasn't a single moment of a jumping BC environment because of Hank...it was 40 straight minutes of it. One of the best performances I've seen in the BC...college or pro.
I literally would have never again thought of Jake Thomas had his name not been brought up here. The only memory I have involving him is a few hours after the Davidson game, running into Homer out at the bars in Lexington and asking him what his call was. He said he didn't even remember what it was but it was probably, "WHY IN THE WORLD ARE THEY STICKING A GUY ON JAKE THOMAS IN THE CORNER?! HIS MAN SHOULD BE STANDING UNDER THE HOOP! JAKE THOMAS?!"
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The reason I remember Jake's shot is because the BC absolutely erupted. Henry never got the joint jumping like that. Better player, more memorable overall, but for a single moment, that shot by Jake was pretty epic.
It so epically affected the game that it took Syracuse several minutes to rebuild its lead -- a lead it held until Mayo could hit two 3-pointers down the stretch that helped MU rally to win the game.
You know, I have probably seen 500 games at Wrigley Field. When Kerry Wood homered in the third inning of Game 7 of the 2003 NLCS, the roar was the loudest I had ever heard at the old ballpark. EVER! One might even call it epic! But then the Cubs lost the game and the series, and a dejected Wood later admitted he had choked.
Marquette would have met the same fate against Syracuse despite Jake's 4-pointer had other, far better players not made other, far more important plays.
Given all the huge shots that other Warriors made that season, I am amused, bemused and bewildered by the love for that lucky, first-half shot by a sub-mediocre player. There actually are Scoopers (I'm not referring to you, brew) who think that was a bigger shot than Junior's 3 vs. UConn or Vander's winner vs. Davidson. Amazing.
brew, you and I agree on a lot, but I must admit I don't get this one.
I confess that I wasn't at the BC. I was watching with a huge MU contingent at a bar and we definitely were psyched when Jake's shot went in. Most of us were far more psyched when Mayo and Davante led us back from a 7-point deficit in the second half, though.
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It so epically affected the game that it took Syracuse several minutes to rebuild its lead -- a lead it held until Mayo could hit two 3-pointers down the stretch that helped MU rally to win the game.
You know, I have probably seen 500 games at Wrigley Field. When Kerry Wood homered in the third inning of Game 7 of the 2003 NLCS, the roar was the loudest I had ever heard at the old ballpark. EVER! One might even call it epic! But then the Cubs lost the game and the series, and a dejected Wood later admitted he had choked.
Marquette would have met the same fate against Syracuse despite Jake's 4-pointer had other, far better players not made other, far more important plays.
Given all the huge shots that other Warriors made that season, I am amused, bemused and bewildered by the love for that lucky, first-half shot by a sub-mediocre player. There actually are Scoopers (I'm not referring to you, brew) who think that was a bigger shot than Junior's 3 vs. UConn or Vander's winner vs. Davidson. Amazing.
brew, you and I agree on a lot, but I must admit I don't get this one.
I confess that I wasn't at the BC. I was watching with a huge MU contingent at a bar and we definitely were psyched when Jake's shot went in. Most of us were far more psyched when Mayo and Davante led us back from a 7-point deficit in the second half, though.
See its so funny how people remember games differently. I was in the student section and it literally happened 12 feet away from me. I remember the game being down early, Jake hitting the 4 point play to cut down the deficit and then just cruising through to the end due to the fact that Ox just didn't miss. I have no recollection of the Mayo 3s at all.
Kinda like how everybody here remembers the Novak 3 against Notre Dame with no time left on the clock when in reality, there was more than a second. I'm sure there's some psychological explanation for it.
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See its so funny how people remember games differently. I was in the student section and it literally happened 12 feet away from me. I remember the game being down early, Jake hitting the 4 point play to cut down the deficit and then just cruising through to the end due to the fact that Ox just didn't miss. I have no recollection of the Mayo 3s at all.
Kinda like how everybody here remembers the Novak 3 against Notre Dame with no time left on the clock when in reality, there was more than a second. I'm sure there's some psychological explanation for it.
I'm sure you're right about the psychology of it all. Makes sense. I can assure you that Jake's first-half shot did provide a spark, but I also can assure you that we didn't cruise to victory after it.
As another Scooper said, I don't ever think of Jake Thomas until somebody here brings him up, often in a nearly reverential tone. To me, his only distinction was being part of a frighteningly bad (for a high-major) starting backcourt.
So it's funny to see somebody suggest he had more value, impact or anything else than Henry Ellenson did.
I mean, I got a hell of a lot more out of Ellenson's game-clinching, last-second block of future NBA stud Kris Dunn than I did out of Jake Thomas' 4-point fluke in the first half of a game decided an hour later.
I will allow that Jake had about as much impact as Wally did, though!
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Over the last 4-5 years shots that I personally witnessed that hold a particular place in my memory:
- Luke's foul and free throws against GT
- Jake's 4 pointer
- Junior's 3 pointer to tie UConn
- Jamil/Vander's 3s in the final Davidson minute
- Vander's winning Davidson drive
Now I might have missed many but those quickly stick out in my mind as 'special'. I do agree that Jake's shot only served to ignite the spark allowing us to effectively compete the rest of the game. Ox was unbelievable after that but the Jake shot allowed everyone in the BC to 'believe'.
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Over the last 4-5 years shots that I personally witnessed that hold a particular place in my memory:
- Luke's foul and free throws against GT
- Jake's 4 pointer
- Junior's 3 pointer to tie UConn
- Jamil/Vander's 3s in the final Davidson minute
- Vander's winning Davidson drive
Now I might have missed many but those quickly stick out in my mind as 'special'. I do agree that Jake's shot only served to ignite the spark allowing us to effectively compete the rest of the game. Ox was unbelievable after that but the Jake shot allowed everyone in the BC to 'believe'.
Vander's Big East clincher at SJU
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Yup, can't pull out a single moment from Henry off the top of my head. Before people accuse me of saying that he's not a good player, no that's not what I'm saying, just a pretty meh season with nothing that stands out.
Ellenson not getting called for an offensive foul on his game winning drive against UW. It is hard to remember Ellenson's plays, because he was very good without being exciting. Thomas's 4 point play was exciting, because of who it was against, it was not expected and it did ignite the fans.
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I'm sure you're right about the psychology of it all. Makes sense. I can assure you that Jake's first-half shot did provide a spark, but I also can assure you that we didn't cruise to victory after it.
As another Scooper said, I don't ever think of Jake Thomas until somebody here brings him up, often in a nearly reverential tone. To me, his only distinction was being part of a frighteningly bad (for a high-major) starting backcourt.
So it's funny to see somebody suggest he had more value, impact or anything else than Henry Ellenson did.
I mean, I got a hell of a lot more out of Ellenson's game-clinching, last-second block of future NBA stud Kris Dunn than I did out of Jake Thomas' 4-point fluke in the first half of a game decided an hour later.
I will allow that Jake had about as much impact as Wally did, though!
Jake's 4 pointer was nice because it provided a spark in a game that seemed to be getting out of reach.
However it wasn't even the most important play of that game.
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Yup, can't pull out a single moment from Henry off the top of my head. Before people accuse me of saying that he's not a good player, no that's not what I'm saying, just a pretty meh season with nothing that stands out.
To say that Henry had a "meh" season after being a freshman All-American and first team Big East member is an incredible statement. Maybe nothing in particular stands out because he was good all year long. Wheras Jake's 4 pointer was incredible because he wasn't very good.
I cannot wrap my head around this at all.
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You boys must not have been at the BC for the Butler game this year. No, it wasn't a single moment of a jumping BC environment because of Hank...it was 40 straight minutes of it. One of the best performances I've seen in the BC...college or pro.
I confess that I wasn't at the BC.
I was at the BC for Butler, and MU82, that definitely proves the point I'm trying to make. I'm not saying Jake's shot was bigger, I'm not saying Henry didn't have more major moments, but that shot, at that moment, that was probably the loudest I've heard the BC. It certainly hasn't come close to that volume since that shot. And at no point of Butler did it sound anything like it did when Jake came in and hit that shot. Not even close. How could it? There were probably 5,000 more people in the stands for the Syracuse game.
Again, I'm not talking about magnitude. I realize how the rest of the Syracuse game went, and I realize how significant Henry's block on Dunn was (but remember, that wasn't at the BC), but as far as the Bradley Center simply erupting to the point it sounded like the top was going to come off the damn place, Jake's shot was as epic a moment as I've ever heard live.
Henry was the better player and produced more in a single season than Jake did in his career, but Jake hitting that shot at that moment stands out from a crowd perspective as a far bigger eruption moment than any Henry produced for us. That's not a knock on Henry, it's just that the size of crowds he played in front of and the significance of the opponents he played against weren't on par with that.
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To say that Henry had a "meh" season after being a freshman All-American and first team Big East member is an incredible statement. Maybe nothing in particular stands out because he was good all year long. Wheras Jake's 4 pointer was incredible because he wasn't very good.
I cannot wrap my head around this at all.
Really? Because you said it yourself.... he was good all season long.
Hint: There's nothing memorable about Steph Curry playing like Steph Curry. But when Jeremy Lin plays like Steph Curry, Streisand's cover jumps a few dozen spots on the sales chart.
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Over the last 4-5 years shots that I personally witnessed that hold a particular place in my memory:
- Luke's foul and free throws against GT
- Jake's 4 pointer
- Junior's 3 pointer to tie UConn
- Jamil/Vander's 3s in the final Davidson minute
- Vander's winning Davidson drive
Now I might have missed many but those quickly stick out in my mind as 'special'. I do agree that Jake's shot only served to ignite the spark allowing us to effectively compete the rest of the game. Ox was unbelievable after that but the Jake shot allowed everyone in the BC to 'believe'.
A good list. I would add Vanders drive against sju, Jimmy's baseline jumper against uconn, and carlinos game winner against Creighton. It's not a shot but I will remember Henry's game winning block against Providence for awhile.
I think Thomas shot is unfairly minimized by his performance as a starter the following year. If he had stayed a bench player that shot would be remembered as the time a random benchwarmer made a huge shot in a huge game. Now that shot reminds people how awful Jake was as a starter on a terrible Marquette team
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A good list. I would add Vanders drive against sju, Jimmy's baseline jumper against uconn, and carlinos game winner against Creighton. It's not a shot but I will remember Henry's game winning block against Providence for awhile.
I think Thomas shot is unfairly minimized by his performance as a starter the following year. If he had stayed a bench player that shot would be remembered as the time a random benchwarmer made a huge shot in a huge game. Now that shot reminds people how awful Jake was as a starter on a terrible Marquette team
I had limited my list to shots I personally witnessed. We were on a plane when Vander hit that conference winner (and wasn't that in NYC?) and of course Henry's block on Dunn was out east. I do remember the Carlino shot against Creighton. Good one but an awfully tough season to stay mentally engaged. I'm not specifically recalling the Jimmy baseline shot.
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I was at the BC for Butler, and MU82, that definitely proves the point I'm trying to make. I'm not saying Jake's shot was bigger, I'm not saying Henry didn't have more major moments, but that shot, at that moment, that was probably the loudest I've heard the BC. It certainly hasn't come close to that volume since that shot. And at no point of Butler did it sound anything like it did when Jake came in and hit that shot. Not even close. How could it? There were probably 5,000 more people in the stands for the Syracuse game.
Again, I'm not talking about magnitude. I realize how the rest of the Syracuse game went, and I realize how significant Henry's block on Dunn was (but remember, that wasn't at the BC), but as far as the Bradley Center simply erupting to the point it sounded like the top was going to come off the damn place, Jake's shot was as epic a moment as I've ever heard live.
Henry was the better player and produced more in a single season than Jake did in his career, but Jake hitting that shot at that moment stands out from a crowd perspective as a far bigger eruption moment than any Henry produced for us. That's not a knock on Henry, it's just that the size of crowds he played in front of and the significance of the opponents he played against weren't on par with that.
Yep, HE is by far the better player. But we as fans will remember that Syracuse game (Jake's shot was only a moment in that) for years because in the end it meant something significant. I am sure that Butler game was enjoyable to attend but none of us will remember next year an 8-10 in-conference MU team beating Butler.
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I had limited my list to shots I personally witnessed. We were on a plane when Vander hit that conference winner (and wasn't that in NYC?) and of course Henry's block on Dunn was out east. I do remember the Carlino shot against Creighton. Good one but an awfully tough season to stay mentally engaged. I'm not specifically recalling the Jimmy baseline shot.
Jimmy's baseline shot was a road game, part of a three game trip (Cincy, UConn, SJU I think) where we won all three on the road, and all three in overtime.
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I was at the BC for Butler, and MU82, that definitely proves the point I'm trying to make. I'm not saying Jake's shot was bigger, I'm not saying Henry didn't have more major moments, but that shot, at that moment, that was probably the loudest I've heard the BC. It certainly hasn't come close to that volume since that shot. And at no point of Butler did it sound anything like it did when Jake came in and hit that shot. Not even close. How could it? There were probably 5,000 more people in the stands for the Syracuse game.
Again, I'm not talking about magnitude. I realize how the rest of the Syracuse game went, and I realize how significant Henry's block on Dunn was (but remember, that wasn't at the BC), but as far as the Bradley Center simply erupting to the point it sounded like the top was going to come off the damn place, Jake's shot was as epic a moment as I've ever heard live.
Henry was the better player and produced more in a single season than Jake did in his career, but Jake hitting that shot at that moment stands out from a crowd perspective as a far bigger eruption moment than any Henry produced for us. That's not a knock on Henry, it's just that the size of crowds he played in front of and the significance of the opponents he played against weren't on par with that.
Thanks for the detailed, common-sense explanation, brew. I'm not out to "take away" that moment from anybody.
Was the BC din significantly louder for Jake's 4 than it was for Mayo's crucial 3 in the second-half run that actually won the game? If you say it was, I will believe you. I wasn't there.
As long as folks acknowledge that there have been numerous "bigger" shots these last several years, the fact that Jake's 4 was more "memorable" ... well, that's cool. None of us should be trying to legislate others' MU memories.
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I'm not specifically recalling the Jimmy baseline shot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDBbyen3Cqs]]
Without that win, we don't go dancing.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDBbyen3Cqs]]
Without that win, we don't go dancing.
Outstanding work, TAMU. Great to relive that wonderful finish -- not just Jimmy's shot but the entire closing sequence.
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To say that Henry had a "meh" season after being a freshman All-American and first team Big East member is an incredible statement. Maybe nothing in particular stands out because he was good all year long. Wheras Jake's 4 pointer was incredible because he wasn't very good.
I cannot wrap my head around this at all.
No, I didn't say Henry had a meh season, I was referring to Marquettes season as a whole.
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Thanks for the detailed, common-sense explanation, brew. I'm not out to "take away" that moment from anybody.
Was the BC din significantly louder for Jake's 4 than it was for Mayo's crucial 3 in the second-half run that actually won the game? If you say it was, I will believe you. I wasn't there.
As long as folks acknowledge that there have been numerous "bigger" shots these last several years, the fact that Jake's 4 was more "memorable" ... well, that's cool. None of us should be trying to legislate others' MU memories.
It was louder, it really was. Consider the context. In the 12 games before that, Jake had almost as many DNPs (7) as he did minutes played (9). He hadn't played more than 5 minutes in a single game in over 2 months (Syracuse was Feb 25, played 10 minutes against LSU on Dec 22). He hadn't hit a three since that LSU game. Also, while I think he was on scholarship at the time, Jake started the season as a walk-on.
At the time, Jake was the guy everyone was rooting for. Cliched or not, it felt like a Rudy moment. Todd's shot was big, arguably bigger, but in terms of the moment itself, the second Jake's shot went through and the ref clearly pointed the foul (not sure anyone heard the whistle through the crowd explosion) it was pretty singular. And I'll happily agree that it wasn't the biggest shot at the BC, and certainly not the biggest shot any Marquette player has hit (DJO's dagger against Syracuse in the tourney deserves mention too) but in terms of atmosphere, eruption, and in-the-building energy, Jake's was one of those "as good as it gets" type moments.
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It was louder, it really was. Consider the context. In the 12 games before that, Jake had almost as many DNPs (7) as he did minutes played (9). He hadn't played more than 5 minutes in a single game in over 2 months (Syracuse was Feb 25, played 10 minutes against LSU on Dec 22). He hadn't hit a three since that LSU game. Also, while I think he was on scholarship at the time, Jake started the season as a walk-on.
At the time, Jake was the guy everyone was rooting for. Cliched or not, it felt like a Rudy moment. Todd's shot was big, arguably bigger, but in terms of the moment itself, the second Jake's shot went through and the ref clearly pointed the foul (not sure anyone heard the whistle through the crowd explosion) it was pretty singular. And I'll happily agree that it wasn't the biggest shot at the BC, and certainly not the biggest shot any Marquette player has hit (DJO's dagger against Syracuse in the tourney deserves mention too) but in terms of atmosphere, eruption, and in-the-building energy, Jake's was one of those "as good as it gets" type moments.
OK ... I'll go there ... Jake also is as white as a ghost.
Seriously, brew, thanks for the perspective. I get it. He was the underdog. It was as if a walk-on had hit a big shot.
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OK ... I'll go there ... Jake also is as white as a ghost.
Seriously, brew, thanks for the perspective. I get it. He was the underdog. It was as if a walk-on had hit a big shot.
You're not wrong ;)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDBbyen3Cqs]]
Without that win, we don't go dancing.
Let's see now; if we apply the transitive property of basketball to that game....
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDBbyen3Cqs]]
Without that win, we don't go dancing.
Recall now. That was a great roadtrip.
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It was louder, it really was. Consider the context. In the 12 games before that, Jake had almost as many DNPs (7) as he did minutes played (9). He hadn't played more than 5 minutes in a single game in over 2 months (Syracuse was Feb 25, played 10 minutes against LSU on Dec 22). He hadn't hit a three since that LSU game. Also, while I think he was on scholarship at the time, Jake started the season as a walk-on.
At the time, Jake was the guy everyone was rooting for. Cliched or not, it felt like a Rudy moment. Todd's shot was big, arguably bigger, but in terms of the moment itself, the second Jake's shot went through and the ref clearly pointed the foul (not sure anyone heard the whistle through the crowd explosion) it was pretty singular. And I'll happily agree that it wasn't the biggest shot at the BC, and certainly not the biggest shot any Marquette player has hit (DJO's dagger against Syracuse in the tourney deserves mention too) but in terms of atmosphere, eruption, and in-the-building energy, Jake's was one of those "as good as it gets" type moments.
Brew's 100% right. Part of the key was that up until that moment most in the building felt that things were slowly slipping away. So it went from 'pretty subdued' to 'rockin' loud' in an instant. And Jake was a bit like the students' Rob Frozena character and they always pull extra hard for the underdog.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDBbyen3Cqs]]
Without that win, we don't go dancing.
We probably don't rally in the second half of the season without this win. But we were a 6 seed in 2010. We probably go dancing even if we lose that game :)
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We probably don't rally in the second half of the season without this win. But we were a 6 seed in 2010. We probably go dancing even if we lose that game :)
Whoops, got my years mixed up. Was thinking of the 10-11 team.