Henry down to 13 on Draft Express

[ChicosBailBonds]

He's slid 4 spots in the last three weeks.

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016/

[SaveOD238]

I went on ESPN Lottery simulator today.  I ran the simulation about a dozen times, and it got some pretty interesting results

http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2016/mockdraft

Basically, Chad Ford thinks that if the Suns don't get a top 3 pick, they'll nab Hank between 4-6.  If the Suns get a top 3, they'll take Simmons (#1) or Ingram, and Henry will fall to one of the other squads below them, such as the Nuggets or Pelicans.

For Bucks fans, every simulation I ran had the Bucks taking Poeltl with the 10th pick.  I tried to run it enough times to see what they might do with a top 3, but they never won in my simulations.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Definitely depends on who needs what, which is why some guys are taken higher than they ought to be in certain years but the ping pong balls wound up influencing that selection.   Same is also true where a guy has slipped at times because of the order of teams drafting.  Some draft best players, some draft by need, so that can juggle up the value proposition for an individual player.  Much like in the NFL if a team has a great QB who is young, and the best player available is a QB, they will often pass for someone else because that player isn't needed, even though that QB waiting to be drafted is the best player remaining on the board.

[MomofMUltiples]

For the sake of folks who are actually doing something at work and not goofing around like I am, I compiled a list of Henry's position in various mock drafts I could find.  Some of these take team needs into account, others are going with the "best player available" theory.  Once the lottery happens tonight, we will start seeing more mock drafts that are trying to pair teams with needs.  I can update this as things change.

Date           Draft Express   CBS Sports   ESPN   USA Today   SI        NBAdraft. net     Walter Football     Bleacher Report   Basketball Insiders
                           
5/17/2016      13 (Suns)     8 (Kings)   7 (Denver)   6 (N.O.)   4 (Suns)     17 (Memphis)        8 (Kings)              8 (Kings)               8 (Kings)
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           



                           
                           
                           
                           
                           

[brewcity77]

For Bucks fans, every simulation I ran had the Bucks taking Poeltl with the 10th pick.  I tried to run it enough times to see what they might do with a top 3, but they never won in my simulations.

I did enough scenarios to see what Ford thinks Milwaukee would do at 1, 2, and 3.

1. Ben Simmons
2. Brandon Ingram
3. Jamal Murray

To be fair, every scenario I ran had Simmons/Ingram going 1/2 (in that order). The 3 pick was where disparity started. Most scenarios had Dragan Bender or Kris Dunn going at 3. The only outliers I saw for that were the Kings taking Buddy Hield at 3 and the Bucks or Celtics taking Murray. Every scenario where the Bucks weren't in the lottery, they took Poetl at 10 or 11.

Saw Ellenson going anywhere from 5-7. Usually to the Suns at 5 or 6, but if they got into the lottery or Bender was available, they took him first and Henry fell to either the Nuggets or Pelicans at 7.

[MerrittsMustache]

Henry is exactly the type of player who falls on draft boards as draft day gets closer. He's a safe pick. He has a low floor but a limited ceiling. He's not a franchise-altering player and GMs basically know what he's going to be - a solid, unspectacular big man. Often NBA GMs prefer to take chances on guys like Labissiere or Davis because of their upside and athleticism despite their bust potential.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Henry go in the top 4 but I also wouldn't be shocked if he dropped out of the lottery.

[Hubert Davis]

There is absolutely no way Henry drops out of the lottery. He's a top 10 pick FOR SURE

[wadesworld]

There is absolutely no way Henry drops out of the lottery. He's a top 10 pick FOR SURE

Agreed.  The 2 players he is constantly compared to are Dirk and Love.  I'd say that ceiling is pretty darn high, personally.

[Golden Avalanche]

Agreed.  The 2 players he is constantly compared to are Dirk and Love.  I'd say that ceiling is pretty darn high, personally.

Once the NBA trims the fat around him, Ellenson will be cashing checks for 15 years barring serious injury.

[brewcity77]

Agreed.  The 2 players he is constantly compared to are Dirk and Love.  I'd say that ceiling is pretty darn high, personally.

I just wonder how much of those comparisons are because of position and skin color.

Personally, I see Henry as a 12-15 year NBA player. Not sure he's in the league of Dirk or Love, though, and no one ever says "He's the next Josh McRoberts" about anyone. Not saying that's what Henry is, but pre-draft comparisons always seem to be absolute best case scenarios.

[MU82]

Agreed.  The 2 players he is constantly compared to are Dirk and Love.  I'd say that ceiling is pretty darn high, personally.

I did see Henry recently compared to Spencer Hawes. My initial reaction was, "No freakin' way!" But Hawes did have a nice one-and-done season at Washington - 15/6 with 2A and 2B while shooting 53%. He was the leading scorer for a very young but talented Huskies team that beat several ranked teams, including No. 2 UCLA, but didn't make the tourney. Quincy Pondexter - we remember him! - was a freshman.

Hawes went on to be the No. 10 pick for the NBA hellhole that is Sacramento. He has had six NBA seasons averaging double-digit points and six averaging at least 7 boards. He's been in the league for nine years and was a solid role player for the Hornets this past season.

Obviously, Henry would like to do better, and we'd like him to do better, but there would be absolutely no shame in having a career similar to that of Hawes - who already has made $40 million and is guaranteed another $12 million over the next two seasons.

[MerrittsMustache]

Agreed.  The 2 players he is constantly compared to are Dirk and Love.  I'd say that ceiling is pretty darn high, personally.

NBA Player Comparisons aren't always the most accurate.




Henry is a 6'11" white guy with some range. That's why he's compared to Dirk and Love. If he really was the second-coming of either of those guys, he'd be a top 3 pick without question.

Hawes is a solid comparison. I also see HE being similar to Ersan Ilyasova, Channing Frye or Kelly Olynyk - reliable, double-digit-scoring big men with range. Those guys can have loooong careers and make boatloads of money.

[wadesworld]

While I agree that pre-draft comparisons tend to be best case scenarios, neither Love nor Dirk were top 3 picks.  Hank, at the moment, does not shoot the ball as well as either of those 2, but he is a far better ball handler and rebounder than Hawes or McRoberts were even at their prime.

[rocket surgeon]

a few of you have mentioned that HE would go to the pelicans if they pick later than 5-6.  they already have anthony davis and dante cunningham at PF's.  obviously davis is a STUD, but don't know much about dante.  that being noted, why would the pelicans take HE?  best available or better than dante?  both or one can never have enough decent PF's? 

[Jay Bee]

If you look historically at mock drafts, the 'experts' are obviously guessing to a large degree.

This draft might be even trickier than most once you get past the first ~two picks on down into the mid-teens.

[MU82]

While watching Pardon the Interruption today, the scroll said Ford has Hankster going No. 7.

[Stretchdeltsig]

I don't get Simmons.  He doesn't make  difference.  He will not lead a team to victory.  Henry beat him.  In short, he is not a good pick.

[GGGG]

I don't get Simmons.  He doesn't make  difference.  He will not lead a team to victory.  Henry beat him.  In short, he is not a good pick.

Ok.

[Jay Bee]

I don't get Simmons.  He doesn't make  difference.  He will not lead a team to victory.  Henry beat him.  In short, he is not a good pick.

Seems like a good analysis.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Henry is exactly the type of player who falls on draft boards as draft day gets closer. He's a safe pick. He has a low floor but a limited ceiling. He's not a franchise-altering player and GMs basically know what he's going to be - a solid, unspectacular big man. Often NBA GMs prefer to take chances on guys like Labissiere or Davis because of their upside and athleticism despite their bust potential.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Henry go in the top 4 but I also wouldn't be shocked if he dropped out of the lottery.

Wouldn't surprise me either.  All it takes is one GM to over pick a guy, or another to not pull the trigger.  Aaron Rodgers comes to mind.  Cody Zeller comes to mind.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Agreed.  The 2 players he is constantly compared to are Dirk and Love.  I'd say that ceiling is pretty darn high, personally.

Why is he only compared to Caucasian guys?   Seems lazy.

[wadesworld]

Why is he only compared to Caucasian guys?   Seems lazy.

Who would your pick be?

[MU82]

Why is he only compared to Caucasian guys?   Seems lazy.

Chicos plays the race card? Say it ain't so!

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chicos plays the race card? Say it ain't so!

You are not doing it right

[ChicosBailBonds]

Who would your pick be?

Just seems odd to me that of all the guys in the NBA, the only two that come up as a comparison are two other white guys?

Not one other NBA player?  The odds just seem to be long that those are the only comparisons.   I don't watch the NBA enough to make a comparison.  Perhaps those two are the only comparisons.