MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: ChicosBailBonds on May 17, 2016, 10:15:49 AM
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He's slid 4 spots in the last three weeks.
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016/
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I went on ESPN Lottery simulator today. I ran the simulation about a dozen times, and it got some pretty interesting results
http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2016/mockdraft
Basically, Chad Ford thinks that if the Suns don't get a top 3 pick, they'll nab Hank between 4-6. If the Suns get a top 3, they'll take Simmons (#1) or Ingram, and Henry will fall to one of the other squads below them, such as the Nuggets or Pelicans.
For Bucks fans, every simulation I ran had the Bucks taking Poeltl with the 10th pick. I tried to run it enough times to see what they might do with a top 3, but they never won in my simulations.
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Definitely depends on who needs what, which is why some guys are taken higher than they ought to be in certain years but the ping pong balls wound up influencing that selection. Same is also true where a guy has slipped at times because of the order of teams drafting. Some draft best players, some draft by need, so that can juggle up the value proposition for an individual player. Much like in the NFL if a team has a great QB who is young, and the best player available is a QB, they will often pass for someone else because that player isn't needed, even though that QB waiting to be drafted is the best player remaining on the board.
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For the sake of folks who are actually doing something at work and not goofing around like I am, I compiled a list of Henry's position in various mock drafts I could find. Some of these take team needs into account, others are going with the "best player available" theory. Once the lottery happens tonight, we will start seeing more mock drafts that are trying to pair teams with needs. I can update this as things change.
Date Draft Express CBS Sports ESPN USA Today SI NBAdraft. net Walter Football Bleacher Report Basketball Insiders
5/17/2016 13 (Suns) 8 (Kings) 7 (Denver) 6 (N.O.) 4 (Suns) 17 (Memphis) 8 (Kings) 8 (Kings) 8 (Kings)
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For Bucks fans, every simulation I ran had the Bucks taking Poeltl with the 10th pick. I tried to run it enough times to see what they might do with a top 3, but they never won in my simulations.
I did enough scenarios to see what Ford thinks Milwaukee would do at 1, 2, and 3.
1. Ben Simmons
2. Brandon Ingram
3. Jamal Murray
To be fair, every scenario I ran had Simmons/Ingram going 1/2 (in that order). The 3 pick was where disparity started. Most scenarios had Dragan Bender or Kris Dunn going at 3. The only outliers I saw for that were the Kings taking Buddy Hield at 3 and the Bucks or Celtics taking Murray. Every scenario where the Bucks weren't in the lottery, they took Poetl at 10 or 11.
Saw Ellenson going anywhere from 5-7. Usually to the Suns at 5 or 6, but if they got into the lottery or Bender was available, they took him first and Henry fell to either the Nuggets or Pelicans at 7.
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Henry is exactly the type of player who falls on draft boards as draft day gets closer. He's a safe pick. He has a low floor but a limited ceiling. He's not a franchise-altering player and GMs basically know what he's going to be - a solid, unspectacular big man. Often NBA GMs prefer to take chances on guys like Labissiere or Davis because of their upside and athleticism despite their bust potential.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Henry go in the top 4 but I also wouldn't be shocked if he dropped out of the lottery.
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There is absolutely no way Henry drops out of the lottery. He’s a top 10 pick FOR SURE
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There is absolutely no way Henry drops out of the lottery. He’s a top 10 pick FOR SURE
Agreed. The 2 players he is constantly compared to are Dirk and Love. I'd say that ceiling is pretty darn high, personally.
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Agreed. The 2 players he is constantly compared to are Dirk and Love. I'd say that ceiling is pretty darn high, personally.
Once the NBA trims the fat around him, Ellenson will be cashing checks for 15 years barring serious injury.
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Agreed. The 2 players he is constantly compared to are Dirk and Love. I'd say that ceiling is pretty darn high, personally.
I just wonder how much of those comparisons are because of position and skin color.
Personally, I see Henry as a 12-15 year NBA player. Not sure he's in the league of Dirk or Love, though, and no one ever says "He's the next Josh McRoberts" about anyone. Not saying that's what Henry is, but pre-draft comparisons always seem to be absolute best case scenarios.
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Agreed. The 2 players he is constantly compared to are Dirk and Love. I'd say that ceiling is pretty darn high, personally.
I did see Henry recently compared to Spencer Hawes. My initial reaction was, "No freakin' way!" But Hawes did have a nice one-and-done season at Washington - 15/6 with 2A and 2B while shooting 53%. He was the leading scorer for a very young but talented Huskies team that beat several ranked teams, including No. 2 UCLA, but didn't make the tourney. Quincy Pondexter - we remember him! - was a freshman.
Hawes went on to be the No. 10 pick for the NBA hellhole that is Sacramento. He has had six NBA seasons averaging double-digit points and six averaging at least 7 boards. He's been in the league for nine years and was a solid role player for the Hornets this past season.
Obviously, Henry would like to do better, and we'd like him to do better, but there would be absolutely no shame in having a career similar to that of Hawes - who already has made $40 million and is guaranteed another $12 million over the next two seasons.
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Agreed. The 2 players he is constantly compared to are Dirk and Love. I'd say that ceiling is pretty darn high, personally.
NBA Player Comparisons aren't always the most accurate.
(http://cdn.niketalk.com/a/ab/900x900px-LL-abd14f1f_413731435mg.png)
Henry is a 6'11" white guy with some range. That's why he's compared to Dirk and Love. If he really was the second-coming of either of those guys, he'd be a top 3 pick without question.
Hawes is a solid comparison. I also see HE being similar to Ersan Ilyasova, Channing Frye or Kelly Olynyk - reliable, double-digit-scoring big men with range. Those guys can have loooong careers and make boatloads of money.
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While I agree that pre-draft comparisons tend to be best case scenarios, neither Love nor Dirk were top 3 picks. Hank, at the moment, does not shoot the ball as well as either of those 2, but he is a far better ball handler and rebounder than Hawes or McRoberts were even at their prime.
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a few of you have mentioned that HE would go to the pelicans if they pick later than 5-6. they already have anthony davis and dante cunningham at PF's. obviously davis is a STUD, but don't know much about dante. that being noted, why would the pelicans take HE? best available or better than dante? both or one can never have enough decent PF's?
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If you look historically at mock drafts, the 'experts' are obviously guessing to a large degree.
This draft might be even trickier than most once you get past the first ~two picks on down into the mid-teens.
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While watching Pardon the Interruption today, the scroll said Ford has Hankster going No. 7.
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I don't get Simmons. He doesn't make difference. He will not lead a team to victory. Henry beat him. In short, he is not a good pick.
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I don't get Simmons. He doesn't make difference. He will not lead a team to victory. Henry beat him. In short, he is not a good pick.
Ok.
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I don't get Simmons. He doesn't make difference. He will not lead a team to victory. Henry beat him. In short, he is not a good pick.
Seems like a good analysis.
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Henry is exactly the type of player who falls on draft boards as draft day gets closer. He's a safe pick. He has a low floor but a limited ceiling. He's not a franchise-altering player and GMs basically know what he's going to be - a solid, unspectacular big man. Often NBA GMs prefer to take chances on guys like Labissiere or Davis because of their upside and athleticism despite their bust potential.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Henry go in the top 4 but I also wouldn't be shocked if he dropped out of the lottery.
Wouldn't surprise me either. All it takes is one GM to over pick a guy, or another to not pull the trigger. Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. Cody Zeller comes to mind.
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Agreed. The 2 players he is constantly compared to are Dirk and Love. I'd say that ceiling is pretty darn high, personally.
Why is he only compared to Caucasian guys? Seems lazy.
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Why is he only compared to Caucasian guys? Seems lazy.
Who would your pick be?
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Why is he only compared to Caucasian guys? Seems lazy.
Chicos plays the race card? Say it ain't so!
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Chicos plays the race card? Say it ain't so!
You are not doing it right
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Who would your pick be?
Just seems odd to me that of all the guys in the NBA, the only two that come up as a comparison are two other white guys?
Not one other NBA player? The odds just seem to be long that those are the only comparisons. I don't watch the NBA enough to make a comparison. Perhaps those two are the only comparisons.
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Just seems odd to me that of all the guys in the NBA, the only two that come up as a comparison are two other white guys?
Not one other NBA player? The odds just seem to be long that those are the only comparisons. I don't watch the NBA enough to make a comparison. Perhaps those two are the only comparisons.
I've heard him compared to Danny Manning. Honestly not sure how accurate the comparison is.
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Just seems odd to me that of all the guys in the NBA, the only two that come up as a comparison are two other white guys?
Not one other NBA player? The odds just seem to be long that those are the only comparisons. I don't watch the NBA enough to make a comparison. Perhaps those two are the only comparisons.
agreed it's very a lazy comp and everyone does it. HE's best comp to me is Bosh. Not too far off from people comparing Jae to anyone with dreadlocks (Kenneth Farried) which is equally as lazy. Someone actually compared HE to Nick Collison which was almost like they were just searching for a tall white guy to compare him to. frustrating but it also doesn't really matter.
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Just seems odd to me that of all the guys in the NBA, the only two that come up as a comparison are two other white guys?
Not one other NBA player? The odds just seem to be long that those are the only comparisons. I don't watch the NBA enough to make a comparison. Perhaps those two are the only comparisons.
So you don't watch the NBA enough to give your opinion...but you'll give your opinion on the matter. Okay.
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Just seems odd to me that of all the guys in the NBA, the only two that come up as a comparison are two other white guys?
Not one other NBA player? The odds just seem to be long that those are the only comparisons. I don't watch the NBA enough to make a comparison. Perhaps those two are the only comparisons.
If you don't watch the NBA enough, then why bother? Why do you have this need to aggravate for the sake of aggravating?
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So you don't watch the NBA enough to give your opinion...but you'll give your opinion on the matter. Okay.
Trying to get educated by those that watch it more than I do. Looks like I'm not alone in this thread saying it seems a lazy comparison.....but not what is said, but who says the what
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5....4.....3.....2....
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Trying to get educated by those that watch it more than I do. Looks like I'm not alone in this thread saying it seems a lazy comparison.....but not what is said, but who says the what
Those other people offered their comparisons. So it is what was said, not who said it. But keep playing the victim. If you don't watch it enough to know who a good comparison is, then how can you know if the comparison people come up with is a good comparison or not?
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If you don't watch it enough to know who a good comparison is, then how can you know if the comparison people come up with is a good comparison or not?
If you know you're being deceived at the time you're being deceived are you really being deceived?
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agreed it's very a lazy comp and everyone does it. HE's best comp to me is Bosh. Not too far off from people comparing Jae to anyone with dreadlocks (Kenneth Farried) which is equally as lazy. Someone actually compared HE to Nick Collison which was almost like they were just searching for a tall white guy to compare him to. frustrating but it also doesn't really matter.
Not the worst comparison but personally I think Hank is a much better ball handler than Bosh ever was while I think Bosh was much more athletic, quicker laterally, and leaner than Hank. That's why I don't think Dirk and Love are "lazy" comparisons because they are "just white post players who can stretch the floor." They have similar builds and similar games. Neither are overly athletic or laterally quick, both are a little bigger guys, and both can handle the basketball very well for near 7 footers. And yes, they are white and can stretch the floor from the post position.
I think most white guys are compared to other white guys because...well, in the NBA most white guys play a similar style to each other. For every Jason Williams who can beat a guy off the dribble with his quickness and change of direction, there are about 20 Dirks or Dragics who play the Euro style basketball with pump fakes and shooting ability and court awareness and spacing and footwork. How many white guys in the NBA do you see relying on 100% athleticism and jumping over guys to dunk on them like a Blake Griffin or DeAndre Jordan? Not many. So that's why you typically aren't seeing a guy like Henry Ellenson compared to DeAndre Jordan. The comparison simply isn't there. A guy like Henry, who plays a Euro style game, will usually be compared to a Euro style player, because the comparison fits, it makes sense. Most Euro style players happen to be white players. It's not laziness. It's the style of game that is played.
Just like if you go back to the glory days of Bert when we were starting guys like Jae, DJO, Jimmy, Vander, OTule, Gardner, etc. and you look at Wisconsin starting a bunch of white guys, you wouldn't say, "Well, I think a good comparison for UW is Marquette." Is that because Marquette was starting a bunch of African Americans while UW was starting a bunch of white farm boys? Of course not. It's because their 2 styles were completely different, despite being 2 good teams. If I had to compare UW to another team or program I would say Georgetown, who typically doesn't play a ton of white guys. But how can that be? Me being lazy, I should just compare UW to a school that starts a bunch of other white farm boys...
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If you know you're being deceived at the time you're being deceived are you really being deceived?
Haha good question. I would say no, you are not being deceived.
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bucks have 10th pick-would they take henry ?? IF THEY DID, stevo is gone fer sure eyne'r?
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bucks have 10th pick-would they take henry ?? IF THEY DID, stevo is gone fer sure eyne'r?
If he's available at 10 they would take him unless someone they really wanted like a Heild also somehow fell to 10. I don't see either available.
Steve is gone either way. Nice career, made over $20M. Well done. Enjoy the coaching ranks if that's the path you so choose, Steve. Otherwise enjoy wherever warm place you move.
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I made the Danny manning comparison . 6'11 multidimensional forward. Can handle the ball with either hand, lead the break, get to the basket off of the dribble. Mobile. Not yet a great spot up shooter beyond 15 ft, but that could improve. I actually think we are selling Henry short when we make our comparisons based on melatonin. How about a less explosive Durant? Bosh who can dribble with either hand. Griffin without the dunking. Once he gets stronger and more consistent from distance, he will be fine.
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I like the bosh comparison a lot… think that’s the best one thus far.
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I could see da Bucks bitin'. An underclassman makes perfect sense. Team's got a couple of years to get good before movin' inta da new digs, ai na?
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draft express has him at #13. so according to that, he would be available and would hope the bucks take him for a number of reasons including HOME STATE. mock draft has him going pretty consistently top 8 or so. love buddy h, but slim that he's around at #10
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I've thought for a while now that HE was overrated out of high school. Looks like NBA scouts are starting to agree.
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The Bucks might be in the worst spot in the draft unless someone slides. By general consensus, there are 2 tier 1 players (Ingram and Simmons) and 5-7 tier 2 players depending on who you ask. Poetl would be a good consolation prize, but that isn't the team's biggest need.
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I've thought for a while now that HE was overrated out of high school. Looks like NBA scouts are starting to agree.
So the BE freshman of the year, a freshman all American, who Draft Express has going in the top half of the first round of the NBA draft, was "overrated coming out of high school."
Good thought. ::)
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I've thought for a while now that HE was overrated out of high school. Looks like NBA scouts are starting to agree.
They think that there are 12 draft-eligible players in the world that are better than him.
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The Bucks might be in the worst spot in the draft unless someone slides. By general consensus, there are 2 tier 1 players (Ingram and Simmons) and 5-7 tier 2 players depending on who you ask. Poetl would be a good consolation prize, but that isn't the team's biggest need.
I actually think Poeltl is the biggest need, but really, really hope we don't get him. He's literally the only guy in the draft I'd be disappointed with the Bucks taking. At 10 in a very bad draft, I have accepted that chances are the player we get this year will never be an all star, but I'm hoping that we either take a guy like Valentine who will be a solid glue guy right away or get someone who develops over a 3 year period into someone who can be a solid glue guy down the road.
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They think that there are 12 draft-eligible players in the world that are better than him.
Not to mention, that's one site. SI.com has up going #5 overall.
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Keep in mind that Draft Express will recalibrate again shortly when they apply what teams need. All it takes is one team to draft based on need to change a draft order.
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The Bucks might be in the worst spot in the draft unless someone slides. By general consensus, there are 2 tier 1 players (Ingram and Simmons) and 5-7 tier 2 players depending on who you ask. Poetl would be a good consolation prize, but that isn't the team's biggest need.
It is once dey jettison Moose, hey?
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Someone just sent me this today.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2644485-nba-mock-draft-2016-opening-round-predictions-and-rising-prospects-to-watch
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Who's gonna win it!? THE BUCKS, THE BUCKS!!
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Hank working out for the Lakers today.
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No doubt,Henry will be a lottery pick, ai na?
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No doubt,Henry will be a lottery pick, ai na?
Hear hear.
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Someone just sent me this today.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2644485-nba-mock-draft-2016-opening-round-predictions-and-rising-prospects-to-watch
This is going to make it awkward when Woj passes the Ellensons in the BC hallways.
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Anyone think he actually fits well with the Bucks? I don't see it.
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Anyone think he actually fits well with the Bucks? I don't see it.
If he is able to be at least decent in the post defensively and his shot develops I think it'd be great. You could play him at the 5 and pull the opposition's center away from the basket while you let Giannis and Jabari slash to the bucket with no rim protector there.
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Actually, i tink the Dears will select da cat from Utah and part wit Moose, ai na?
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Actually, i tink the Dears will select da cat from Utah and part wit Moose, ai na?
Agreed, which offing Moose would be great, but Poeltl isn't very good unfortunately.
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I have been seeing Wade Baldwin to the bucks a fair amount too here and there, could be a really good 3 and D type "point guard". Point guard defensively (6' 10" wingspan) so Giannis can guard a bigger guy and shooter on O. I didn't really see him much in college though, but the fit is interesting
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I've thought for a while now that HE was overrated out of high school. Looks like NBA scouts are starting to agree.
What would that make Skal Labissiere, Cheick Diallo, Diamond Stone and Malik Newman, aka four of the eight guys rated ahead of him in the RSCI?
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I'll tell you what. I've generally been great when it comes to scouting and projecting.
Wade Baldwin and KAT.. no.
Totally missed on them. Impressed, but not nearly to the level they are (KAT) and are being talked about (Baldwin). They were together, maybe that's part of it? Don't know. Need to reevaluate.
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http://www.barstoolsports.com/barstoolu/henry-ellenson-nba-draft-scouting-report/
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Hank working out for the Lakers today.
I heard they think he'd be a great 2nd round pick
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http://www.woelfelspressbox.com/blog-entry/11/could-ellenson-stone-be-teammates-in-nba
Ellenson is making the rounds. Already worked out with a ton of teams in the top 10 and will be with the Bucks soon.
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https://twitter.com/eric_nehm/status/742800135353073664
Hmmm....
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hiro
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hiro
unless HE gave wojo an atomic wedgy right after the pic was snapped-no hard feelins eyeyn'a? HE said-sorry coach, i just had to do that for my mom..now all's cool
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hiro
Wait, what?! I thought Hank couldn't stand Wojo and Duane was ready to spill the dirty beans to the BE reporter via Twitter!
Would love to see Hank stay in MKE, but I think he gowne by then.
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Would be great for MU if Henry went to the Bucks. Would also be an excellent payday for him. Lets hope it happens.
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Wait, what?! I thought Hank couldn't stand Wojo and Duane was ready to spill the dirty beans to the BE reporter via Twitter!
Would love to see Hank stay in MKE, but I think he gowne by then.
Wojo clearly trying to sabotage HE's draft stock right in front of him at his workouts. He will not rest until he falls out of the 1st round.
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Wojo clearly trying to sabotage HE's draft stock right in front of him at his workouts. He will not rest until he falls out of the 1st round.
Mind games. Wojo has been practicing them for a long time now. It seems he may have perfected the art.
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Mind games. Wojo has been practicing them for a long time now. It seems he may have perfected the art.
Smoke & mirrors, hey?
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Wojo clearly trying to sabotage HE's draft stock right in front of him at his workouts. He will not rest until he falls out of the 1st round.
that's teal, right? if not, i don't think so
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that's teal, right? if not, i don't think so
Well if you ask Nigel Hayes players certainly get distracted by having friends around you at NBA workouts.
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that's teal, right? if not, i don't think so
Yep, Teal cartridge is empty or.......maybe posters want an escape route.
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that's teal, right? if not, i don't think so
Yes. Didn't think teal was necessary for something so over the top. But I guess you can never know for sure around here.
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Yes. Didn't think teal was necessary for something so over the top. But I guess you can never know for sure around here.
no, that's cool 8-), just sometimes ya never know with the wojo haters around these parts-trust but verify hey'ner?
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I actually think we are selling Henry short when we make our comparisons based on melatonin.
Does Ellenson struggle with sleep issues?
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hiro
That might be the first picture I've seen of Travis where he looks older than 15.
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That might be the first picture I've seen of Travis where he looks older than 15.
Must not be running every lunch during the summer, ainna? Kid still looks good forbid age though (nh)
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Does Ellenson struggle with sleep issues?
Maybe he's being exposed to a bunch of radiation? Are there a bunch of HV power lines running through Rice Lake?
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I've heard the T-wolves could be looking to trade their pick to the Bulls for Jimmy but if they keep the pick I could see the T-wolves taking either Henry or even Kris Dunn.
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HE's not going at 5. Dunn would be a better bet to be taken at 5 but I don't really see it as a good idea.
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I've heard the T-wolves could be looking to trade their pick to the Bulls for Jimmy
You're not fooling anyone here, Mr. Hunt.
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According to NBA GMs, the consensus for the top 7 players are set.
Ellenson and Hield are next in line.
Whether Henry gets selected at 8 or 9 or jumps up a spot or two (maybe due to a team need / trade), still depends on that team need plus scouting opinions after their workouts, however.
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According to NBA GMs, the consensus for the top 7 players are set.
Ellenson and Hield are next in line.
Whether Henry gets selected at 8 or 9 or jumps up a spot or two (maybe due to a team need / trade), still depends on that team need plus scouting opinions after their workouts, however.
Lol.. according to WHO? "NBA GMs"? lol
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Lol.. according to WHO? "NBA GMs"? lol
Yes.
Chad Ford polled a number of NBA GMs & scouts asking them to grade players by tiers.
There was one in Tier 1 - Simmons
There was one in Tier 2 - Ingram
There were 5 in Tier 3 - Bender, Brown, Chriss, Dunn, Murray
There were 7 in Tier 4 - of which Hield and Ellenson graded highest.
Instead of just being as chica-esque of a jerk and as condescending to as many people as you can, why don't you just ignore my posts? I have no interest in your posts, so please return the favor.
The difference between us is that I will give my opinion - this is an opinion board - while you mock the opinions of others. That speaks to your character, not mine.
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Yes.
Chad Ford polled a number of NBA GMs & scouts asking them to grade players by tiers.
There was one in Tier 1 - Simmons
There was one in Tier 2 - Ingram
There were 5 in Tier 3 - Bender, Brown, Chriss, Dunn, Murray
There were 7 in Tier 4 - of which Hield and Ellenson graded highest.
Instead of just being as chica-esque of a jerk and as condescending to as many people as you can, why don't you just ignore my posts? I have no interest in your posts, so please return the favor.
The difference between us is that I will give my opinion - this is an opinion board - while you mock the opinions of others. That speaks to your character, not mine.
No. I take issue when you misstate facts or fail to explain what you are truly saying. "According to NBA GMs, the consensus for the top 7 players are set." ESPN's article does not represent the consensus of NBA GM's and it certainly doesn't mean the top 7 players "are set"
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According to NBA GMs, the consensus for the top 7 players are set.
Ellenson and Hield are next in line.
Whether Henry gets selected at 8 or 9 or jumps up a spot or two (maybe due to a team need / trade), still depends on that team need plus scouting opinions after their workouts, however.
According to NBA GMs, the consensus for the top 7 players are set.
Ellenson and Hield are next in line.
someone please tell him, that is not an opinion.
if he were to say, i really really miss chicos because he was so informative-that would be an opinion
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Yes.
Chad Ford polled a number of NBA GMs & scouts asking them to grade players by tiers.
So, not according to GMs.
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I made the Danny manning comparison . 6'11 multidimensional forward. Can handle the ball with either hand, lead the break, get to the basket off of the dribble. Mobile. Not yet a great spot up shooter beyond 15 ft, but that could improve. I actually think we are selling Henry short when we make our comparisons based on melatonin. How about a less explosive Durant? Bosh who can dribble with either hand. Griffin without the dunking. Once he gets stronger and more consistent from distance, he will be fine.
Fortunately, it's been a few months, but just to be sure, it's probably time to put the melatonin jokes to bed... unless you disagree with the sentiment that cracking fun about cancer and heart attacks is very poor taste.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/some-cities-are-taking-another-look-at-led-lighting-after-ama-warning/2016/09/21/98779568-7c3d-11e6-bd86-b7bbd53d2b5d_story.html
BTW - If you haven't already, activate the "Night Shift" feature on your iOS device.