Lottery Pick - By the Numbers ($$$ differential)

[Benny B]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2015/06/26/2015-nba-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections/#2f0a33432e68

Granted, these are 2015-class numbers (the 2016-class numbers will be slightly higher), but now that Henry is no longer a consensus top 5 pick, the "money" factor in any decision becomes much more complicated.

A few notables:

1. The 4-year difference between being the #1 and the #14 is roughly $16.1M ($4M/yr), but the difference between #14 and #30 is roughly $3.9M ($1M/yr).

2. "Player A" is the #10 overall pick in 2016, and "Player B" is the #6 overall pick in 2017.  From 2016-20 (over the next 4 seasons), Player A will make less than Player B.  That's not per year... that's in the aggregate over the same time period, i.e.  Player B - who enters the NBA one year later than Player A - will make more in just three NBA seasons than Player A will make in four.

3. Using the same theory as the foregoing, from 2016-20:

This Pick in 2017		This Pick in 2016	Differential
#3	Will Make More Than	#6	+3
#4	Will Make More Than	#8	+4
#7	Will Make More Than	#12	+5
#8	Will Make More Than	#15	+7
#9	Will Make More Than	#16	+7
#10	Will Make More Than	#18	+8
#13	Will Make More Than	#21	+8
#14	Will Make More Than	#23	+9

In other words, the last column is how much an eligible 2016 draftee would have to improve his position if he defers to 2017 to, essentially, "break even" over the next four years.

4. Extending the above for another year, if player A was a low lottery pick (i.e #12-#14) and receives a qualifying offer for 2020-21 (A's fifth year), Player B will make more in 2020-21 (B's fourth year) if he was the sixth pick (or higher) in 2017.

Now, of course there are counterpoints: 

First and foremost: In scenario #2, despite potentially making more money in the same time period as Player A, Player B is putting off FA for another year, and - theoretically - foregoing one year of career NBA earnings.

However, the key to cashing in at FA is being prepared to cash in at FA.  Look at the "0-6" guys who cashed in this year: JFB, Greg Monroe, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving.. all three except Irving played two years in D-I.  Even looking at the "7-9" guys, Kevin Love and DeAndre Jordan were one-and-dones, but Aldridge and Millsap each spent at least two years in college.  (Then there's LeBron, but that's a different story.)

Conversely, let's look at how the one-and-dones from 2010 & 2011 who were lottery picks (and the FA contracts they signed):
John Wall   5yr/$85M ($17M/yr)
Derrick Favors   4yr/$47M ($12M/yr)
DeMarcus Cousins 4yr/$66M ($16.5M/yr)
Xavier Henry    D-League
Enes Kanter   4yr/$70M ($17.5M/yr)
Brandon Knight  5yr/$70M ($14M/yr)

All in all, not too bad for the one-and-doners... Kanter, Cousins and Wall are only making a few million/yr under the max level.  The real question here is could Knight and Favors have improved their NBA prospects with another year in college?  While I lean towards "probably not," that $3-5M/year differential is huge considering that foregoing one year of NBA earnings would pay for itself in a year or two if it the answer was "yes."

One thing is clear, however... Henry (Ellenson) does not want to "pull a Henry (, Xavier)"... 12th overall pick, played behind the curve his first three seasons, signed a minimum contract his fourth year, got injured, signed another minimum contract his fifth year, injured again, and now spends most of his days in the D-League.

Second: Supposedly, 2017 is supposed to be a stronger draft class; however, (depending on what source you use) as many as 12 of the 14 lottery picks are projected to go to next year's one-and-dones, and aside from the three committed to Kentucky, one may not want to bank on the other 9 all going to the 2017 draft. 

Even so, there are only two true PF one-and-dones projected in the top 20 for 2017 right now (Giles-Duke and Adebayo-UK), and the other true PF on the board (Deyonta Davis, assuming he doesn't declare this year) is a known commodity.  For 2016, right now there are potentially seven PF's on the board in the top 20 - Simmons, Rabb, Sabonis, Johnson (UNC), Labissiere, Chriss, and Bender (Int'l) - five of which are true PF's (not including Zimmerman at UNLV who projects as a C, even though some services are grouping Henry and Zimmerman together as PF/C projections).

2016 may be a weaker class overall, but it certainly appears stronger at Henry's position.

Third: Injuries.  Speaks for itself.

But here's a perspective not many have considered... getting injured as a college sophomore may delay your entry to the NBA by a year or two, but if you're the #13 pick in 2016 - assuming injury is inevitable this year - and struggle through your first two professional seasons while you recover, you may be out of the league (or signing minimum contracts) by your third year; however, if you can recover in college enough to make an impact in your rookie year - albeit 1-2 years later - you're probably much more likely to end up getting your third and fourth year options picked up, at which point, you will have - at least - doubled your career earnings over the previous scenario.

Again, the odds of a career-ending injury are astronomically low (unless there's a known health issue), and rarely are injuries catastrophic... so if the response to the above is "how likely is that to occur," my answer would be "at least as likely as a catastrophic injury."

Summary:

I expect Henry to go to the combine, no doubt about it.  But I think that whether he stays or returns is probably going to depend highly upon who else amongst his peers declare and how others perform at the combine and/or Portsmouth.

What it boils down to is where do the NBA teams see Henry in the 2016 draft vs. where does Henry see himself improving for 2017.  As we can see above, being a sure-fire lottery pick isn't the end-all-be-all it's cracked up to be... while it may not be the case for Henry, for someone projected in the #10-14 range, the upside of improving one's draft position could be exponentially greater than the downside of waiting a year.

[Goose]

HE will make well over $200m in his career barring injury. The sooner he gets to his second contract the better it is for him. Wish the kid good luck and hopefully Wojo has a backup plan.

[Windyplayer]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2015/06/26/2015-nba-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections/#2f0a33432e68

Granted, these are 2015-class numbers (the 2016-class numbers will be slightly higher), but now that Henry is no longer a consensus top 5 pick, the "money" factor in any decision becomes much more complicated.

A few notables:

1. The 4-year difference between being the #1 and the #14 is roughly $16.1M ($4M/yr), but the difference between #14 and #30 is roughly $3.9M ($1M/yr).

2. "Player A" is the #10 overall pick in 2016, and "Player B" is the #6 overall pick in 2017.  From 2016-20 (over the next 4 seasons), Player A will make less than Player B.  That's not per year... that's in the aggregate over the same time period, i.e.  Player B - who enters the NBA one year later than Player A - will make more in just three NBA seasons than Player A will make in four.

3. Using the same theory as the foregoing, from 2016-20:

This Pick in 2017		This Pick in 2016	Differential
#3	Will Make More Than	#6	+3
#4	Will Make More Than	#8	+4
#7	Will Make More Than	#12	+5
#8	Will Make More Than	#15	+7
#9	Will Make More Than	#16	+7
#10	Will Make More Than	#18	+8
#13	Will Make More Than	#21	+8
#14	Will Make More Than	#23	+9

In other words, the last column is how much an eligible 2016 draftee would have to improve his position if he defers to 2017 to, essentially, "break even" over the next four years.

4. Extending the above for another year, if player A was a low lottery pick (i.e #12-#14) and receives a qualifying offer for 2020-21 (A's fifth year), Player B will make more in 2020-21 (B's fourth year) if he was the sixth pick (or higher) in 2017.

Now, of course there are counterpoints: 

First and foremost: In scenario #2, despite potentially making more money in the same time period as Player A, Player B is putting off FA for another year, and - theoretically - foregoing one year of career NBA earnings.

However, the key to cashing in at FA is being prepared to cash in at FA.  Look at the "0-6" guys who cashed in this year: JFB, Greg Monroe, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving.. all three except Irving played two years in D-I.  Even looking at the "7-9" guys, Kevin Love and DeAndre Jordan were one-and-dones, but Aldridge and Millsap each spent at least two years in college.  (Then there's LeBron, but that's a different story.)

Conversely, let's look at how the one-and-dones from 2010 & 2011 who were lottery picks (and the FA contracts they signed):
John Wall   5yr/$85M ($17M/yr)
Derrick Favors   4yr/$47M ($12M/yr)
DeMarcus Cousins 4yr/$66M ($16.5M/yr)
Xavier Henry    D-League
Enes Kanter   4yr/$70M ($17.5M/yr)
Brandon Knight  5yr/$70M ($14M/yr)

All in all, not too bad for the one-and-doners... Kanter, Cousins and Wall are only making a few million/yr under the max level.  The real question here is could Knight and Favors have improved their NBA prospects with another year in college?  While I lean towards "probably not," that $3-5M/year differential is huge considering that foregoing one year of NBA earnings would pay for itself in a year or two if it the answer was "yes."

One thing is clear, however... Henry (Ellenson) does not want to "pull a Henry (, Xavier)"... 12th overall pick, played behind the curve his first three seasons, signed a minimum contract his fourth year, got injured, signed another minimum contract his fifth year, injured again, and now spends most of his days in the D-League.

Second: Supposedly, 2017 is supposed to be a stronger draft class; however, (depending on what source you use) as many as 12 of the 14 lottery picks are projected to go to next year's one-and-dones, and aside from the three committed to Kentucky, one may not want to bank on the other 9 all going to the 2017 draft. 

Even so, there are only two true PF one-and-dones projected in the top 20 for 2017 right now (Giles-Duke and Adebayo-UK), and the other true PF on the board (Deyonta Davis, assuming he doesn't declare this year) is a known commodity.  For 2016, right now there are potentially seven PF's on the board in the top 20 - Simmons, Rabb, Sabonis, Johnson (UNC), Labissiere, Chriss, and Bender (Int'l) - five of which are true PF's (not including Zimmerman at UNLV who projects as a C, even though some services are grouping Henry and Zimmerman together as PF/C projections).

2016 may be a weaker class overall, but it certainly appears stronger at Henry's position.

Third: Injuries.  Speaks for itself.

But here's a perspective not many have considered... getting injured as a college sophomore may delay your entry to the NBA by a year or two, but if you're the #13 pick in 2016 - assuming injury is inevitable this year - and struggle through your first two professional seasons while you recover, you may be out of the league (or signing minimum contracts) by your third year; however, if you can recover in college enough to make an impact in your rookie year - albeit 1-2 years later - you're probably much more likely to end up getting your third and fourth year options picked up, at which point, you will have - at least - doubled your career earnings over the previous scenario.

Again, the odds of a career-ending injury are astronomically low (unless there's a known health issue), and rarely are injuries catastrophic... so if the response to the above is "how likely is that to occur," my answer would be "at least as likely as a catastrophic injury."

Summary:

I expect Henry to go to the combine, no doubt about it.  But I think that whether he stays or returns is probably going to depend highly upon who else amongst his peers declare and how others perform at the combine and/or Portsmouth.

What it boils down to is where do the NBA teams see Henry in the 2016 draft vs. where does Henry see himself improving for 2017.  As we can see above, being a sure-fire lottery pick isn't the end-all-be-all it's cracked up to be... while it may not be the case for Henry, for someone projected in the #10-14 range, the upside of improving one's draft position could be exponentially greater than the downside of waiting a year.

Well done. Thank you.

[Windyplayer]

HE will make well over $200m in his career barring injury. The sooner he gets to his second contract the better it is for him. Wish the kid good luck and hopefully Wojo has a backup plan.

Hope so, but that's an awfully bold proclamation.

[Tugg Speedman]

I assume you're basing this on a lottery pick that plays like a lottery pick and has a 15 year career, with ever high salary caps.

Restated, he makes an average of $13.33M/year for 15 years.

This sounds about right.

------------------------

This is why I think none of the math above matters.  If Henry believes in himself and thinks this is what he has in front of him, then where he gets drafted this year is noise.  The payday is the second and third contract.  Coming out this year makes him one  year close to the second and third contract.

If you agree with this, then it comes down to one simple question, do you like being a college player, playing with your brother here at MU?  If yes, then stay another year (or two) and enjoy this lifestyle.  Otherwise, if you look forward to the day of mega-bucks and playing in the NBA, then go now.

That is why I think if he is at class tomorrow (when school resumes) or not will tell us how much he likes being a college student and goes a long way to answering the bolded questions above.

[Goose]

Heisenberg

Correct on being a lottery pic and likely a 15+ year career, barring injury. He does not have to be a superstar to make that type of money, just stay healthy and contribute every year.

[bilsu]

You lose one year of earnings by staying and pro careers are often short.

[Benny B]

I assume you're basing this on a lottery pick that plays like a lottery pick and has a 15 year career, with ever high salary caps.

Yes, that is the base assumption here; player A and Player B are, in theory, the same person.  But that's not the point.  The point here is to consider how Player B might surpass Player A despite the latter's one-year head start.  Like running the 1600, sprinting out of the gate may not be the best strategy for one's career.

I am absolutely not making a case for Henry either declaring or returning... I'm simply pointing out the considerations that any early-entrant to the draft needs to make, because the shark tank may not always be the best place for one to refine his swimming skills.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

There is no reasonable argument to say that by staying a year in college that HE could end up making more money. While theoretically possible, is highly improbable. If HE wants to maximize his earnings, he will declare right now.

However, maximizing his earnings is not the only factor going into this decision. And honestly, I don't think its the most important factor to HE. This might sound ludicrous to some but once you are making millions of dollars, some people are willing to sacrifice a million here or a million there for other luxuries. Playing another season with his brother, making the NCAA tournament, winning the BEast, being BE POY, being National POY, guaranteeing that you are getting 30+ minutes of playing time a game next season are all things that money can't buy. Some people would sacrifice a year of earning for some of those luxuries. And if Benny's math can help you justify that loss of earnings, than that's good too.

All that being said, I still think HE goes pro. I think most people in his situation would. But the decision is not as cut and dry as some people want to make it. Only HE truly knows what his priorities are. We will find out when we find out.

[Goose]

Howard

I think the decision was cut and dry and was made well before he stepped foot on campus. IMO this was very similar to Vander knowing he was going pro a year in advance. HE came here with a plan and place and executed it quite well. I do not believe for a second that he is having difficult time on the decision.

Would add, that playing on a mediocre team, in front of mostly garbage crowds, probably did not help create any doubt about next year. Possibly a great year by the team, a S16 or even one win in NCAA, might have had him thinking about what might be next season.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Howard

I think the decision was cut and dry and was made well before he stepped foot on campus. IMO this was very similar to Vander knowing he was going pro a year in advance. HE came here with a plan and place and executed it quite well. I do not believe for a second that he is having difficult time on the decision.

I'd agree that HE came in with the plan of declaring after one year and the coaching staff have operated on that assumption all season. But I don't think for one second that the decision was ever made or that it is made now.

Would add, that playing on a mediocre team, in front of mostly garbage crowds, probably did not help create any doubt about next year. Possibly a great year by the team, a S16 or even one win in NCAA, might have had him thinking about what might be next season.

This is speculation on my part, but from my understanding of HE, I think this year will have left him hungrier. I think if he got to the NCAA tournament, he could say "I did it" and move on. My guess is being left out of the postseason actually would influence him to stay. But I do know for a fact that HE has loved his Marquette experience. He didn't perceive himself as "playing on a mediocre team in front of mostly garbage crowds." That sounds like thinking that fans have projected onto him.

Again, still think he's declaring. Most people would.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Howard

I think the decision was cut and dry and was made well before he stepped foot on campus. IMO this was very similar to Vander knowing he was going pro a year in advance. HE came here with a plan and place and executed it quite well. I do not believe for a second that he is having difficult time on the decision.

Would add, that playing on a mediocre team, in front of mostly garbage crowds, probably did not help create any doubt about next year. Possibly a great year by the team, a S16 or even one win in NCAA, might have had him thinking about what might be next season.

As to your first point - if his decision was already made, or as you put it "made before he stepped on campus", why hasn't he announced that he is entering the draft and sign an agent? Whats the point of him sticking around school?  I don't disagree that he is probably gone, but your logic doesn't add up.

As to your 2nd point - I almost think this works the other way around. Henry probably wants a taste of the big dance, and playing for a top 15 team. That didn't happen in year 1, so maybe he is inclined to return for year 2 to try and make that happen.  Once you go pro, that opportunity is out the window.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'd agree that HE came in with the plan of declaring after one year and the coaching staff have operated on that assumption all season. But I don't think for one second that the decision was ever made or that it is made now.

This is speculation on my part, but from my understanding of HE, I think this year will have left him hungrier. I think if he got to the NCAA tournament, he could say "I did it" and move on. My guess is being left out of the postseason actually would influence him to stay. But I do know for a fact that HE has loved his Marquette experience. He didn't perceive himself as "playing on a mediocre team in front of mostly garbage crowds." That sounds like thinking that fans have projected onto him.

Again, still think he's declaring. Most people would.

Yep. Pretty much exactly what I said in different words.  Couldn't agree more.

[Goose]

Howard

Any interaction I had with HE or his family was 100% positive on all fronts. I saw HE enjoying a ton of activities outside of ball on campus and he looked like he was having a ball. No doubt that he enjoyed his one year at MU a great deal.

[Tugg Speedman]

Playing another season with his brother, making the NCAA tournament, winning the BEast, being BE POY, being National POY, guaranteeing that you are getting 30+ minutes of playing time a game next season are all things that money can't buy.

See Jahill Okafor

Yes he already won a national championship, yes he was the number 1 pick last year.  But, buy all indications, he is miserable with the Sixers.  In the back of his mind, I wonder if another year at Duke would have been preferable.  Sure he would not have the money, but he would not have fans screaming "you suck" at him and have to walk around on egg shells out of fear of getting in trouble again.  You would not have started the season losing 26 in a row.  None of this sounds like fun.

----

Also factor into your thinking that you are just 18 and, as a lottery pick, you're going to a bad team that is probably somewhat dysfunctional.  So yes, lots of money, but not nearly as much fun ... especially when you play three times a week, you don't have time to spend your money.

[rocky_warrior]

especially when you play three times a week, you don't have time to spend your money.

Yeah...NBAers sure do seem to have a hard time spending their money.   

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

especially when you play three times a week, you don't have time to spend your money.

I was with you until this part Hberg.

[Pakuni]

See Jahill Okafor

Yes he already won a national championship, yes he was the number 1 pick last year.  But, buy all indications, he is miserable with the Sixers.  In the back of his mind, I wonder if another year at Duke would have been preferable.  Sure he would not have the money, but he would not have fans screaming "you suck" at him and have to walk around on egg shells out of fear of getting in trouble again.  You would not have started the season losing 26 in a row.  None of this sounds like fun.

----

Also factor into your thinking that you are just 18 and, as a lottery pick, you're going to a bad team that is probably somewhat dysfunctional.  So yes, lots of money, but not nearly as much fun ... especially when you play three times a week, you don't have time to spend your money.

Playing a game you love for millions of dollars a year. Three months (at least) of vacation a year. First-class travel, dining and accommodations everywhere you go. The ladies. The freebies.
Who'd want to miss classes, tests, study hall, tutoring sessions, etc., for that?
Man, the NBA sounds terrible.

[ChicosBailBonds]

HE will make well over $200m in his career barring injury. The sooner he gets to his second contract the better it is for him. Wish the kid good luck and hopefully Wojo has a backup plan.

I doubt it ($200M), but hope he does.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Howard

I think the decision was cut and dry and was made well before he stepped foot on campus. IMO this was very similar to Vander knowing he was going pro a year in advance. HE came here with a plan and place and executed it quite well. I do not believe for a second that he is having difficult time on the decision.

Would add, that playing on a mediocre team, in front of mostly garbage crowds, probably did not help create any doubt about next year. Possibly a great year by the team, a S16 or even one win in NCAA, might have had him thinking about what might be next season.

Vander's plan......what a lousy plan that was.

[bilsu]

Howard

I think the decision was cut and dry and was made well before he stepped foot on campus. IMO this was very similar to Vander knowing he was going pro a year in advance. HE came here with a plan and place and executed it quite well. I do not believe for a second that he is having difficult time on the decision.

For all we know HE"s plan might of been to play two years with his brother and now he is trying to decide if he is staying with his original plan or leaving a year early.

[Benny B]

Playing a game you love for millions of dollars a year. Three months (at least) of vacation a year. First-class travel, dining and accommodations everywhere you go. The ladies. The men. The freebies.
Who'd want to miss classes, tests, study hall, tutoring sessions, etc., for that?
Man, the NBA sounds terrible.

FIFY

[rocket surgeon]

in lieu of copying benny's whole opening post-WOW!  what was your major-actuarial sciences?  if so, a golden pocket protector for you sir-well done!! 

[Tugg Speedman]

Playing a game you love for millions of dollars a year. Three months (at least) of vacation a year. First-class travel, dining and accommodations everywhere you go. The ladies. The freebies.
Who'd want to miss classes, tests, study hall, tutoring sessions, etc., for that?
Man, the NBA sounds terrible.

Of course this is true.  But then their is getting drafted by a lottery team which means they are bad.  Guys in the locker room that are their to cash a paycheck and little else.  A coach trying not to get fired.  Sparse crowds.  pressure to merely survive, not win.

Again, if HE believes in himself, then he knows he going to make $200 million (as noted above).  It is their now, is their next year, and in two years.

Does he want to be a kid another year and enjoy college with his brother?  Or does he want to take the next step.

Plenty of guys stay in college because they like it.  See Marcus Paige, see Alex Poytress, see Frank Kaminisky.  See Andrew Luck.  They all had opportunities to leave early and elected to stay because they just enjoyed school.  Some people actually do, and actually like going to class.

No wrong answer, just what does he want?

[forgetful]

in lieu of copying benny's whole opening post-WOW!  what was your major-actuarial sciences?  if so, a golden pocket protector for you sir-well done!! 

Ha, I've actually met the guy in that picture.  Quite the character.