sju thoughts

[MU82]

Wow. If that SJU press (where JJJ got an and-1 at the end) had zero fouls called for Haanif, how were any called in the game?
Wow. JJJ taking a contested lay-up when we were up and less than 30 seconds on the clock. Could have been a Buycks v Louisville situation there.

I had those exact same 2 thoughts.

The refs called every ticky-tack foul -- and I agree with those who realize we got the better of the calls for most of the game -- but they didn't call at least two blatant hacks on that play with Haanif - yikes! We were lucky to not turn it over there.

And there was absolutely no reason for JJJ to go 1-on-1 there. It would have been seen here as a horrible mistake if he had missed (and rightly so), especially if the Johnnies had gone back the other way and thrown in another 3. Thankfully, that didn't happen!

[warriorchick]

53 fouls in this game. That's a foul called every 45 seconds.

Enough to foul out every starter on both sides and then some.

Crazy.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Ehh I think the best indicator of good coaching is not giving up double digit leads under 10 minutes. That has plagued marquette all year.

Why? When teams blow big leads thats usually because of mistakes made by players on the court. Coaching has the most impact on games in the final few minutes when the game is still undecided. Usually the coach takes over and calls about every play, uses a lot of timeouts, and makes critical adjustments. Before that a lot more rest on the players.

I don't think Wojo is a great in game coach yet. But he is a lot better than most scoopers give him credit for. You don't win this many close games by accident. I think fans just have an easier time blaming the coach for a loss than they do the players.

[CTWarrior]

Never a doubt down one with 3 minutes left after blowing a 17 point lead and giving up 51 points in less than 17 minutes? I'd kill for your kind of faith.

+1

[hdog1017]

That game was about as pleasurable to watch as getting a dry enema.  There was no flow, there were way too many whistles. 

Glad Marquette won, but I wish I had those 2+ hours back. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

• Never a doubt yesterday once we built the lead. I'm sure some were worried when the Johnnies went ahead, but there was no way that hot shooting would keep up.
  
• Great MSG debut for Henry. It is absolutely amazing how much he has improved this year. Really turned it around after being rather poor in the first 8 games of conference play.
  
• Officiating was brutal, though honestly, it was worse for St. John's. Every time they looked at us sideways we went to the line. It was equally terrible at the end, but for the first 30 or so minutes, we got pretty much every call.
  
• Anyone looked at the win probability graph on Pomeroy? Pretty sure it's inaccurate, but also hilarious.
  
• Also amazed at JJ's improvement. What a game, 23/5/4 with 5 steals? Last year, I frequently criticized him going for too many steals. This year, he is much better at understanding when to go for a ball. He's not gambling and taking himself out of position in the process, but when there's a ball in the reach of his wingspan, he's probably taking it away. Earlier in the season, he began to let the game come to him, but now he's showing the ability to take over the game. Love watching his development...similar to the massive strides Blue took as a junior (albeit in different ways).
  
• Duane was victimized by numerous phantom fouls, but he was also very good. He's at that "letting the game come to him" point except you know he wants the ball at the end.
  
• Free throws were important, but I have to defend Jay Bee here. The point of free throw percentage not mattering is that if you shoot anywhere over 50%, you are getting better than average offensive production versus what would happen if you were running your offense, and the mounting fouls are the real benefit because they reduce the effectiveness of the opponents while also giving you more chances at dead ball points. Yes, you can note points in individual games and cherry pick stats to increase the apparent value of free throw percentage, but over the course of a full season, the actual wins and losses decided by the difference of a team shooting 75% from the line (above average) or 68% (below average) is pretty marginal.
  
• Last year we kicked SHU's ass in that position, this year we pummel St. John's before flirting with disaster at the end. Really hope today looks better than our matinee follow-up with Nova did a year ago.
  [*]20 wins, hopefully we've done enough for the Vegas 16 if our season ends tonight.
  
• Been a fun season watching these guys grow this year. Henry, JJ, Duane, Haanif, Traci have all shown so much growth. Still need to round out the roster and get some Big East toughness, but Wojo definitely shows promise as a developer of talent.

Nice post. But for realz on the bolded? Cmon man. MU is nearly s lock for the NIT- there is no chance they are not invited to Vegas if this lose today and the NIT passes in MU.

[Loose Cannon]

Sandy is much more under control on defense. Rarely blows assignments. Good man defender. If he could hit open 3's again he could be a valuable piece. Wally offers more on offense right now and his energy is high but he gets beat on D a lot when he comes in

+1

[21rooster]

We watched a different game.  He didn't get a foul, because he essentially didn't play any defense.  It was beyond bad.

Sorry if this has already addressed, but I had to skip to reply after seeing this comment.  Henry did exactly what he needed to do.  Luke couldn't stay on the court for even 20 minutes.  Heldt is injured.  We absolutely could not afford to have Henry in foul trouble.  I remember a game in Big East play when Henry had only one foul, and he purposely fouled a guy in transition in order to avoid the easy dunk.  That play came back to haunt us, as he quickly picked up his third and rode the pine for a good amount of time.  That can't happen, especially with Luke's inability to stay out of foul trouble.  Kudos to Henry for keeping himself on the court. 

[bobnoxious]

The win probability graph gave me a headache

[jsglow]

Nice post. But for realz on the bolded? Cmon man. MU is nearly s lock for the NIT- there is no chance they are not invited to Vegas if this lose today and the NIT passes in MU.

Not quite yet.  Certainly a win tonight locks the NIT and a loss doesn't eliminate them.  I agree that Vegas is almost certain to invite them now without any further conference tourney success.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Not quite yet.  Certainly a win tonight locks the NIT and a loss doesn't eliminate them.  I agree that Vegas is almost certain to invite them now without any further conference tourney success.

Hence why I said nearly. I'd happily wager that MU makes the NIT even w a loss tonight. The only reason they wouldn't be is again the ugly RPI, but I think they'll look past that MUs case.

[Henry Sugar]

If we shoot 70% from the line, we probably lose that game. So I'd love to hear the whole "free throws don't really matter" argument from the new-fangled stats guys again.

Don't get the argument wrong. The argument is that FTs and FTR are far less important than any of the other factors.

eFG% (shooting percentage - by far the most important... about 50%)
MU - 60.6%; SJU - 60.7% - a wash

OR% (offensive rebounding... about 25%)
MU - 25%; SJU - 35.5% - ADVANTAGE SJU

TOs (about 20%)
MU - 17.8%; SJU - 21.6% - ADVANTAGE MU

FTR (about 5%)
MU - 82.7%; SJU - 37.7% - BIG ADVANTAGE MU

So with the stuff that really matters (~95%) essentially cancelling out, MU had a big advantage in the remaining 5%.

It's not that FTs and FTR don't matter, it's that they account for 5%. So in order of priorities, the priority should be on the other three first.

[g0lden3agle]

Don't get the argument wrong. The argument is that FTs and FTR are far less important than any of the other factors.

eFG% (shooting percentage - by far the most important... about 50%)
MU - 60.6%; SJU - 60.7% - a wash

OR% (offensive rebounding... about 25%)
MU - 25%; SJU - 35.5% - ADVANTAGE SJU

TOs (about 20%)
MU - 17.8%; SJU - 21.6% - ADVANTAGE MU

FTR (about 5%)
MU - 82.7%; SJU - 37.7% - BIG ADVANTAGE MU

So with the stuff that really matters (~95%) essentially cancelling out, MU had a big advantage in the remaining 5%.

It's not that FTs and FTR don't matter, it's that they account for 5%. So in order of priorities, the priority should be on the other three first.

Stupid question Henry - is it possible to turn these 4 factors into an expected score?

[PGsHeroes32]

I'm fine with the 7 man rotation but am confused as to how Sandy is getting the 7th man gig over Wally.  In their current state it seems like they are pretty interchangeable out there with the exception that Wally has a much higher energy level.

I said during game yesterday that I think Wally will play more today. The strong Xavier type is more a Wally balls to the wall game.

SJU is a frantic press game which isn't really Wally.

[NotAnAlum]

Now that I've had a few hours to get past the passion of nearly losing to ST Johns in that Foul Fest I can be a little more positive.

1.  As everyone has said JJJ progress this season has been remarkable.  He has gone from a turn over looking to happen; to a consistent scorer on the drive; to now simply unstoppable.  He is so creative with the way he slips through defenses and with the way the guy can finish he is an and 1 machine.  And now he takes 3s and looks good doing it.  This is why you need guys that stay 4 years.  Next year if we are down 1 with 20 secs left the ball goes to JJJ and I'll live with the result.
2.  Traci has changed from a guy I was just waiting to make the next dumb pass to a guy who I really get nervous when he comes out of the game.  When he is running the offense it seems like there is a purpose that wasn't there before.  And his leadership.  Did you see him put is arm around Duane and walk him toward the bench when Duane was protesting his bullsh*t 5th foul.  We don't need a technical.  I'm starting to get the same feeling about Traci that I did when Tony Miller was running things.  I doubt he'll approach Tony's assists number but he's getting that same "everything's under control" approach.
3. Henry I love ya but I could have killed you when you took that corner 3.  No No No No! -- Great.  Still would rather we had a guard take that shot and HE under the basket to rebound.  Also there is a reason why HE gets so few fouls.  He doesn't even try to contest anything in the lane.

Looking forward to tonight.  Don't expect to win.  Want to play well.  Lets see what happens

[rocky_warrior]

Certainly a win tonight locks the NIT

Not trying to argue, but that's definitely NOT a certainty.

[WellsstreetWanderer]

There seems to be no upside of HE contesting in the lane as he would be lost to us if in foul trouble like Luke. With JJJ and Haanif slashing and driving to the hoop we will terribly exciting next year. Traci has matured, slowed down his game and been a competent point. Hope this team gets a chance to continue after the BE.

[Henry Sugar]

Stupid question Henry - is it possible to turn these 4 factors into an expected score?

Not a stupid question. You can create a model that turns the four factors into an expected efficiency / PPP.

I showed an example of this on Cracked Sidewalks. (Note: the previous model had eFG% at 63%)

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/03/marquette-and-priorities-part-two.html

Using the information from that model, the expected efficiency from last night should have been 1.25 ppp (actual was 1.28). Of that, eFG% would be 1.09 ppp, TO% was -0.18, OR% was 0.20 ppp, and FTR accounted for 0.14 ppp. So, FTR accounted for a much higher proportion than normal, but it was still peanuts compared to eFG%.

[brandx]

I had those exact same 2 thoughts.

The refs called every ticky-tack foul -- and I agree with those who realize we got the better of the calls for most of the game -- but they didn't call at least two blatant hacks on that play with Haanif - yikes! We were lucky to not turn it over there.

And there was absolutely no reason for JJJ to go 1-on-1 there. It would have been seen here as a horrible mistake if he had missed (and rightly so), especially if the Johnnies had gone back the other way and thrown in another 3. Thankfully, that didn't happen!

My more immediate concern is why Haney keeps getting trapped in the same corner so often. this happened a lot earlier in the year and it is still going on. For some reason, he catches the ball in the corner and just holds it until he is double-teamed. The one you you should never do in a press is stay still with the ball.

[brewcity77]

Never a doubt down one with 3 minutes left after blowing a 17 point lead and giving up 51 points in less than 17 minutes? I'd kill for your kind of faith.

Nope. Never a doubt. I said it in the chat at the time. No way was St. John's going to keep that up. Game was over, Johnnies just didn't know it yet.

Not quite yet.  Certainly a win tonight locks the NIT and a loss doesn't eliminate them.  I agree that Vegas is almost certain to invite them now without any further conference tourney success.

Not at all. It would give us a RPI around 99. The 2014 Marquette team was left out with a RPI of 92 and much better SOS, while last year the lowest at-large RPI team was 90 Arizona State. We need to reach the final to be assured a NIT bid.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Nope. Never a doubt. I said it in the chat at the time. No way was St. John's going to keep that up. Game was over, Johnnies just didn't know it yet.

Not at all. It would give us a RPI around 99. The 2014 Marquette team was left out with a RPI of 92 and much better SOS, while last year the lowest at-large RPI team was 90 Arizona State. We need to reach the final to be assured a NIT bid.

And had lost 4 in a row. take a look at the NIt bubble and find me 15 more deserving at large teams. That's gonna be hard, RPI be damned.

[Lennys Tap]

Nope. Never a doubt. I said it in the chat at the time. No way was St. John's going to keep that up. Game was over, Johnnies just didn't know it yet.

We won, so your prediction was correct. But to say "no doubt" when you're down 1 with three minutes left after leading by 17 nine minutes earlier is silly.

[brandx]

We won, so your prediction was correct. But to say "no doubt" when you're down 1 with three minutes left after leading by 17 nine minutes earlier is silly.

Exactly.

We were three minutes from maybe the most embarrassing loss in MU history.

[g0lden3agle]

Not a stupid question. You can create a model that turns the four factors into an expected efficiency / PPP.

I showed an example of this on Cracked Sidewalks. (Note: the previous model had eFG% at 63%)

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/03/marquette-and-priorities-part-two.html

Using the information from that model, the expected efficiency from last night should have been 1.25 ppp (actual was 1.28). Of that, eFG% would be 1.09 ppp, TO% was -0.18, OR% was 0.20 ppp, and FTR accounted for 0.14 ppp. So, FTR accounted for a much higher proportion than normal, but it was still peanuts compared to eFG%.

Thanks!  So the 50/20/25/5 splits you cited in this thread yields a better fit than the numbers in the article you referred to?

[MU82]

We were three minutes from maybe the most embarrassing loss in MU history.

Stop it.

Miami of Ohio 84, Marquette 81. In a game that actually mattered for the defending national champions.

Or how about Kansas 1 billion, Marquette 2. In a Final Four game.

Or how about DePaul 51, Marquette 50 to end DePaul's 24-game conference losing streak.

Etc, etc, etc.

Losing to St. John's at MSG might not have been a top-10 embarrassment. Maybe not top-20.