Single Bid Conference champ/results

[jsglow]

I've compiled a list of the suspected single bid conference regular season champs and will note any upsets with your help.  This will help us determine how many NIT slots are lost to auto-bids.  I'll appreciate everyone's assistance.  Here goes:

American East        Stony Brook     NCAA

Atlantic Sun           North Florida         NIT

Big Sky                   Weber State

Big South               High Point             NIT

Big West                 Hawaii

Colonial Athletic    Hofstra                    NIT

Conference USA     UAB                       NIT

Horizon                   Valparaiso              NIT

Ivy                           Yale                        NCAA

MAAC                      Monmouth             NIT

Mid America           Akron                  NIT

MEAC                      Hampton             NCAA

Mountain West      San Diego St.          NIT

Northeast               Wagner             NIT

Ohio Valley             Belmont           NIT

Patriot                     Bucknell          NIT

Southern                 Chattanooga   NCAA

Southland               Stephen F. Austin

SWAC                      Texas Southern      NIT

Summit                   IPFW                       NIT

Sun Belt                  Ark. - Little Rock       

WAC                        New Mexico St.       NIT

Okay, a couple things of note.  Right now the Big South (Winthrop/High Point) are tied.  Same is true for the Colonial Athletic (UNC-Wilmington/Hofstra).  I took the one Lunardi had in his current bracket.  Obviously only one teams earns the regular season auto bid to the NIT so if anyone has more info.  Second, I've assumed Missouri Valley (Wichita  St.) and West Coast (St. Mary's) as two bid leagues, as necessary.  Seems that both those two schools would still dance as at large bids, even if defeated.  My goal here isn't to argue about who will win the conference or an at large because both Wichita and St. Mary's would be invited to NIT before us.  Rather, what I'd like to have folks help with are lower tier 'stolen bids' reflecting conference tournament upsets.  Those, plus our own performance over the next week, will help determine our chance for the NIT and might send us off to Vegas as Plan B.  One more thing, please don't troll this thread with 'we're winning the BEast so this doesn't matter' crap.  I hope we do but go dream elsewhere, okay?

Thanks for everyone's help.

[GGGG]

A couple of these regular season champs also would have chances for at large bids.  Valparaiso and Little Rock both have top 50 RPIs and are currently sitting at 12 seeds in the Bracket Matrix. 

[phoenixphan87]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket/_/id/201631/2016-summit-league-tournament

When there is a tie at the top, the designated #1 seed in the conference tournament is the team that gets the auto NIT Bid. Looks like it is IPFW in the Summit. On the link above you can view the brackets that are available. Also with no tournament in the Ivy, no bid will be stolen(but Princeton may make it at large)

[CTWarrior]

A couple of these regular season champs also would have chances for at large bids.  Valparaiso and Little Rock both have top 50 RPIs and are currently sitting at 12 seeds in the Bracket Matrix.

That would still have a negative impact on us because if either of them lost in the conference tournament but still made the NCAA tournament that would push another potential at-large NCAA team to the NIT leaving one less spot for us.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

A couple of these regular season champs also would have chances for at large bids.  Valparaiso and Little Rock both have top 50 RPIs and are currently sitting at 12 seeds in the Bracket Matrix.

Monmouth may have an outside shot too.

[GGGG]

That would still have a negative impact on us because if either of them lost in the conference tournament but still made the NCAA tournament that would push another potential at-large NCAA team to the NIT leaving one less spot for us.

Good point. 

[Buzz Williams' Spillproof Chiclets Cup]

The Ivy League doesn't have a conference tournament, and its Regular Season Champ goes to the NCAAs, not the NIT. Ordinarily, I'd say that means MU doesn't have to worry about the Ivy League because there's no chance of a "stolen" bid in a conference tournament that doesn't exist.

However, it's worth noting that Yale and Princeton (tied in the loss column for the Ivy lead) have RPIs of 54 and 33, respectively.

It's not difficult to imagine a scenario where one of Yale/Princeton goes to the NCAAs, and the runner-up goes to the NIT. It might even be fair to plan on it.

[jsglow]

I've substituted IPFW.  Thanks.

Trying to avoid getting down in the weeds too much with things like possible 'at large' vs. NIT at this point.  There are plenty of teams ahead of us in the pecking order and the NCAA/NIT cutoff line isn't too important as it pertains to MU.  I suppose this matters if a total doormat jumps up and steals an NCAA bid.  If DePaul were to win the BEast we absolutely get moved down a notch....

Anyway, let's see how this plays out case by case.  Let's start by capturing 'auto bids' that lose along the way.  I'll update the chart when that happens. 

[jsglow]

Little more research.  Confirmed High Point as Big South champs; Hofstra as Colonial champs.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Where's the Missouri Valley? That's gonna be a fun tournament.

Nvm actually decided to read the discription with the conferences.

[bilsu]

A couple of these regular season champs also would have chances for at large bids.  Valparaiso and Little Rock both have top 50 RPIs and are currently sitting at 12 seeds in the Bracket Matrix.

That is with them winning the games they are projected to win. So losing in the conference tournament would probably drop them out.

[GGGG]

That is with them winning the games they are projected to win. So losing in the conference tournament would probably drop them out.

No I was using Real Time RPI.  Not projected RPI.  While undoubtedly their RPI would decline, those schools would still be in the mix for an at large.

[Herman Cain]

I've compiled a list of the suspected single bid conference regular season champs and will note any upsets with your help.  This will help us determine how many NIT slots are lost to auto-bids.  I'll appreciate everyone's assistance.  Here goes:

American East        Stony Brook

Atlantic Sun           North Florida

Big Sky                   Weber State

Big South               High Point

Big West                 Hawaii

Colonial Athletic    Hofstra

Conference USA     UAB

Horizon                   Valparaiso

Ivy                           Yale

MAAC                      Monmouth

Mid America           Akron

MEAC                      Hampton

Mountain West      San Diego St.

Northeast               Wagner

Ohio Valley             Belmont

Patriot                     Bucknell

Southern                 Chattanooga

Southland               Stephen F. Austin

SWAC                      Texas Southern

Summit                   IPFW

Sun Belt                  Ark. - Little Rock

WAC                        New Mexico St.

Okay, a couple things of note.  Right now the Big South (Winthrop/High Point) are tied.  Same is true for the Colonial Athletic (UNC-Wilmington/Hofstra).  I took the one Lunardi had in his current bracket.  Obviously only one teams earns the regular season auto bid to the NIT so if anyone has more info.  Second, I've assumed Missouri Valley (Wichita  St.) and West Coast (St. Mary's) as two bid leagues, as necessary.  Seems that both those two schools would still dance as at large bids, even if defeated.  My goal here isn't to argue about who will win the conference or an at large because both Wichita and St. Mary's would be invited to NIT before us.  Rather, what I'd like to have folks help with are lower tier 'stolen bids' reflecting conference tournament upsets.  Those, plus our own performance over the next week, will help determine our chance for the NIT and might send us off to Vegas as Plan B.  One more thing, please don't troll this thread with 'we're winning the BEast so this doesn't matter' crap.  I hope we do but go dream elsewhere, okay?

Thanks for everyone's help.

This is a helpful analysis. Will have to keep an eye on this. If we don't get to the Big Dance we definitely want the NIT. Gives us a good chance to get 20 plus victory number and if things go well a title.

[injuryBug]

2 spots taken Bucknell lost tonight and North Florida

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Make that three with Little Rock.

[injuryBug]

Make that three with Little Rock.

Sun Belt tournament starts next week that was a regular season loss

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Sun Belt tournament starts next week that was a regular season loss

My bad. Thanks for clarifying.

[WarriorPride68]

2 spots taken Bucknell lost tonight and North Florida

Well, damn! That was quick & unfortunate!

[Warriors10]

2 spots taken Bucknell lost tonight and North Florida

Root for Stetson over FGCU; Stetson is ineligible for the tourney so if they win the Atlantic Sun tournament, North Florida gets the auto-bid as its regular season champ.

[MU82]

I am in no way criticizing you for doing this and for everybody hoping for the "right" teams to win conference tournaments.

Still, it is a little sad that we have to root so hard for this 'n that to happen just so we can make the NIT. I'm one of the more positive Scoopers, but that realization gives me kind of "how the mighty have fallen" feelings.

[WarriorPride68]

Root for Stetson over FGCU; Stetson is ineligible for the tourney so if they win the Atlantic Sun tournament, North Florida gets the auto-bid as its regular season champ.

& will boost our RPI

I couldn't resist 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I am in no way criticizing you for doing this and for everybody hoping for the "right" teams to win conference tournaments.

Still, it is a little sad that we have to root so hard for this 'n that to happen just so we can make the NIT. I'm one of the more positive Scoopers, but that realization gives me kind of "how the mighty have fallen" feelings.

Our "rooting for this and that" won't make a damn difference.

Just something to follow and pass the evenings.

[jsglow]

I am in no way criticizing you for doing this and for everybody hoping for the "right" teams to win conference tournaments.

Still, it is a little sad that we have to root so hard for this 'n that to happen just so we can make the NIT. I'm one of the more positive Scoopers, but that realization gives me kind of "how the mighty have fallen" feelings.

Well 82, seeing as we've done squat since that weekend in Lexington,  I'll get fired up about whatever shows a little progress.  BTW, I know you're not ripping on me personally.

[Buzz Williams' Spillproof Chiclets Cup]

I am in no way criticizing you for doing this and for everybody hoping for the "right" teams to win conference tournaments.

Still, it is a little sad that we have to root so hard for this 'n that to happen just so we can make the NIT. I'm one of the more positive Scoopers, but that realization gives me kind of "how the mighty have fallen" feelings.

There are only 32 NIT spots. With regular season conference winners getting NIT auto bids, the margin between dancing and missing the NIT entirely is actually not that vast.

Last year, Ole Miss danced with a record of 20-12, and were #50 in KenPom.
Minnesota and TCU missed the NIT with a record of 18-15, and were #58 and #65 in KenPom respectively.

For what it's worth in this analysis, since the NIT began awarding auto bids in 2007 to teams who won their conference regular season, but did not get NCAA at-large bids. On average, these teams take up about 10 slots, or approximately a third of the NIT field.

2007: 8 auto bids
2008: 8 auto bids
2009: 5 auto bids
2010: 8 auto bids
2011: 14 auto bids
2012: 11 auto bids
2013: 10 auto bids 
2014: 13 auto bids
2015: 11 auto bids

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

There are only 32 NIT spots. With regular season conference winners getting NIT auto bids, the margin between dancing and missing the NIT entirely is actually not that vast.

Last year, Ole Miss danced with a record of 20-12, and were #50 in KenPom.
Minnesota and TCU missed the NIT with a record of 18-15, and were #58 and #65 in KenPom respectively.

For what it's worth in this analysis, since the NIT began awarding auto bids in 2007 to teams who won their conference regular season, but did not get NCAA at-large bids. On average, these teams take up about 10 slots, or approximately a third of the NIT field.

2007: 8 auto bids
2008: 8 auto bids
2009: 5 auto bids
2010: 8 auto bids
2011: 14 auto bids
2012: 11 auto bids
2013: 10 auto bids 
2014: 13 auto bids
2015: 11 auto bids

Which has basically made it a low major / mid major tournament. Vegas should really try to snatch up the best 16 teams to miss the tourney. I think they'd have a legit shot at becoming the next best tourney afteer a couple years if they play their cards right.