Dayton

[MarquetteDano]

No idea if the Bonnie's are a better team (my guess is that they are)  but if you look at the teams they played and won, and the teams we played and won it isn't worth the RPI difference of 34 to 115.  Really shows the weakness of the RPI.

[Pakuni]

No idea if the Bonnie's are a better team (my guess is that they are)  but if you look at the teams they played and won, and the teams we played and won it isn't worth the RPI difference of 34 to 115.  Really shows the weakness of the RPI.

Yes, exactly.
I'm not comparing MU's tourney chances to the Bonnies'.
I'm pointing out the flaws of a rating system that, in spite of their schedule and results, ranks the Bonnies as the 34th best team in the country.

[GGGG]

Well, I think the bracket projectors realize that.  Which is why they aren't a shoo-in at 34 and still have work to do.

I was simply responding to the comment that St. Bonnie's resume was less impressive than MU's.

[ChicosBailBonds]

No idea if the Bonnie's are a better team (my guess is that they are)  but if you look at the teams they played and won, and the teams we played and won it isn't worth the RPI difference of 34 to 115.  Really shows the weakness of the RPI.

Every system has major weaknesses.  Plenty of examples to support finding differences in various systems.

KenPom has Vanderbilt at 28.  RPI at 64.   

KenPom has Gonzaga 35.  RPI has them at 65.

KenPom has Dayton at 50.  RPI has them at 17.   

[GGGG]

It most definitely matters, whether you want to believe it or not. MU would actually still have margin for error! The whole buy game schedule was beyond pathetic. Beyond that, this is something you and I have already discussed plenty, so I will leave it at that.

You are correct.  Instead of a 2% chance, we would have had an 8% chance.

[forgetful]

I think for the most part, almost all the rating systems are useless.

You take a team like St. Bonaventure and put them in the Big East, and they turn into a Depaul.

Put a team like Wisconsin in the Big East, and they would have a losing conference record and not even being considered for the NCAAs.

All the systems are too easily exploited.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I think for the most part, almost all the rating systems are useless.

You take a team like St. Bonaventure and put them in the Big East, and they turn into a Depaul.

Put a team like Wisconsin in the Big East, and they would have a losing conference record and not even being considered for the NCAAs.

All the systems are too easily exploited.

Why would Wisconsin have a losing record in the Big East?

[PE8983]

Have you even watched St Bona play?
Does St Bona beat WI on the road? no
Does St Bona sweep Providence? no
Does St Bona beat Butler? I highly doubt it
Does St Bona beat LSU and ASU to win the same tournament? no
They lost to Hofstra, Sienna, Duquesne, and others.
You said they were a fringe team before yesterday's Dayton win.
Beating St Joe's and a bunch of crappy teams doesn't make you a fringe NCAA team.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Why would Wisconsin have a losing record in the Big East?

I don't know if they'd have a losing record, but they'd definitely be in this grouping of bunched up teams.

[GGGG]

Have you even watched St Bona play?
Does St Bona beat WI on the road? no
Does St Bona sweep Providence? no
Does St Bona beat Butler? I highly doubt it
Does St Bona beat LSU and ASU to win the same tournament? no
They lost to Hofstra, Sienna, Duquesne, and others.
You said they were a fringe team before yesterday's Dayton win.
Beating St Joe's and a bunch of crappy teams doesn't make you a fringe NCAA team.

Dude, *I* am not creating the argument.  It was said yesterday by some talking head and it is reflected on Bracket Matrix, which has them 8th on teams not making the tournament.

Since Bracket Matrix is usually pretty accurate, that makes them a "fringe" tournament team.  Furthermore, Marquette is listed on NONE of the brackets they survey.  So that means St. Bonnies has a better resume than MU does.

Now I don't think they will make it.  Their schedule isn't strong enough to get them in without some upsets in the A10 tournament.

[Herman Cain]

And further evidence why Broeker should feel like an asshat and be truly embarrassed of himself.

It's a dead horse, but there is just no excuse for this horecrap schedule. I havent watched St. Bonnie, I am sure they're a decent squad, but I bet MU would beat them 8/10 times.

I agree with this analysis.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Have you even watched St Bona play?
Does St Bona beat WI on the road? no
Does St Bona sweep Providence? no
Does St Bona beat Butler? I highly doubt it
Does St Bona beat LSU and ASU to win the same tournament? no
They lost to Hofstra, Sienna, Duquesne, and others.
You said they were a fringe team before yesterday's Dayton win.
Beating St Joe's and a bunch of crappy teams doesn't make you a fringe NCAA team.

Does Western Illinois beat Wisconsin on the road?     How about Milwaukee? 

Does St. Bona lose to DePaul at home?  How about Belmont?  Does St. Bona need OT to beat IUPUI at home?

All depends on what part of the body you are looking at, right? 

He's not wrong when he said fringe team.  Lunardi and many others have them as a team "on the fringe".
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/36


In fact, Lunardi last night said Bonaventure is IN   https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/701204947015172096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[forgetful]

Why would Wisconsin have a losing record in the Big East?

Well, they are 0-2 against Big East teams (one neutral site, one home loss) that are currently a combined 13-16 in the Big East.

Seems hard to make any argument other than them having a losing record in the Big East.

I'll go further, you put MU, Creighton, Georgetown or Butler in the Big Ten (swap them with UW) and everyone of them would make the tournament.  The Big Ten is bad this year, their top team has two sub-100 loses out of conference.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Well, they are 0-2 against Big East teams (one neutral site, one home loss) that are currently a combined 13-16 in the Big East.

Seems hard to make any argument other than them having a losing record in the Big East.

Weren't those games played a long time ago?  More than two months ago under Tara's Coach.

[forgetful]

Weren't those games played a long time ago?  More than two months ago under Tara's Coach.

Doesn't mean a damn thing.  There is zero reason to believe that Georgetown and MU haven't improved also.  The Big Ten was terrible out of conference, but as a whole is better positioned to manipulate the RPI. 

They beat each other up and maintain RPIs.  Teams like Michigan, UW, Ohio State and Indiana have OOC resumes that would never get them in the NCAA, all their quality wins are in conference.  That is a red flag, it says the conference as a whole is grossly overrated.

Also, not really a strong argument to say that the reason they improved is that they got rid of a hall of fame coach who just went to the final four the previous 2 years, and replaced him with a career assistant.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Doesn't mean a damn thing.  The Big Ten was terrible out of conference, but as a whole is better positioned to manipulate the RPI. 

They beat each other up and maintain RPIs.  Teams like Michigan, UW, Ohio State and Indiana have OOC resumes that would never get them in the NCAA, all their quality wins are in conference.  That is a red flag, it says the conference as a whole is grossly overrated.

I don't know how they are grossly overrated, they're (the Big Ten) ranked 5th.  That doesn't sound like a gross over rating to me.  Big East is ranked 4th.  Can't honestly argue against either one.  Wisconsin and Indiana are two teams that struggled out of the gate, but both have improved greatly.  IU has another major injury from last night, but we'll see how long that he is out.  Wisconsin, Nigel Hayes finally started to play like Nigel Hayes.  The performances of those two teams certainly didn't help the Big Ten, nor did Michigan State with Valentine out...he's back.   All teams and conferences have similar stories, of course. 

[forgetful]

I don't know how they are grossly overrated, they're (the Big Ten) ranked 5th.  That doesn't sound like a gross over rating to me.  Big East is ranked 4th.  Can't honestly argue against either one.  Wisconsin and Indiana are two teams that struggled out of the gate, but both have improved greatly.  IU has another major injury from last night, but we'll see how long that he is out.  Wisconsin, Nigel Hayes finally started to play like Nigel Hayes.  The performances of those two teams certainly didn't help the Big Ten, nor did Michigan State with Valentine out...he's back.   All teams and conferences have similar stories, of course.

The problem is this.  What is the evidence that UW and Indiana have improved.  That they are beating other teams in the 5th best conference?  That UW, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, who all "started out slow, but improved" are beating each other?  That they are beating a Michigan St team without Valentine?  That they are beating a Purdue team that is proving to be grossly overrated because of beating a bunch of crappy teams OOC?

Maybe they have improved, but there is no evidence to support it, since we are evaluating it based on them playing each other and arbitrary rating systems that have inherent flaws that favor conferences like the Big Ten that can be more selective in their Buy Games.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

St. Bonaventure was a fringe tournament team even before yesterday's win.  (Bracket Matrix had them in the "Next Four Out.")

My friend from high school went to St. Bonnie's.

[MU82]

Nigel Hayes finally started to play like Nigel Hayes. 

Now that Sandy isn't defending him - ha!

[forgetful]

Now that Sandy isn't defending him - ha!

Sandy really is a tale of two halves of the season isn't he.  At times in the beginning of the year he looked like a future star, a shutdown defender with a deadly outside shot. 

Let's just say later.  He looked like the opposite.

[PE8983]

I don't care what their RPI is, or any other statistical stuff says, St Bona has done nothing to warrant their inclusion in the NCAA tournament.  Beating one ranked team the entire year just doesn't cut it.

I've seen them play several games this year, and MU would beat them 7 out of 10 times.

[Nukem2]

Sandy really is a tale of two halves of the season isn't he.  At times in the beginning of the year he looked like a future star, a shutdown defender with a deadly outside shot. 

Let's just say later.  He looked like the opposite.

Still defending well though.  Struggling on offense.

[GGGG]

I don't care what their RPI is, or any other statistical stuff says, St Bona has done nothing to warrant their inclusion in the NCAA tournament.  Beating one ranked team the entire year just doesn't cut it.

I've seen them play several games this year, and MU would beat them 7 out of 10 times.

Well I haven't seen them play.

But your eye test isn't really all that relevant. 

[forgetful]

Still defending well though.  Struggling on offense.

True statement.

[Jay Bee]

No idea if the Bonnie's are a better team (my guess is that they are)  but if you look at the teams they played and won, and the teams we played and won it isn't worth the RPI difference of 34 to 115.  Really shows the weakness of the RPI.

The difference doesn't have much to do with competition. Most of it is adjusted win-loss. If St. Bonnie's had the same adj win-loss as us, they'd be #90 in the RPI as of the current moment.

Not only are they 18-7 vs our 17-10...

They've got 2 home losses... and.. 6?.. road wins

We have 6 home losses... and 4 road wins..

The RPI is stupid, but most of the difference b/w us and St. Bonaventure is due to adjusted win-loss..