[Cracked Sidewalks] MU must beat Wisconsin, go 11-7 in Big East, win a tournament game to get to RPI of 53

[Sylvester78]

Problem is even Bucky might not be a good win.  They look awful and will struggle to go .500 in the Big whatever.

I am not even sure LSU will turn out to be much.   We must do very well in the BE

[Galway Eagle]

Problem is even Bucky might not be a good win.  They look awful and will struggle to go .500 in the Big whatever.

I am not even sure LSU will turn out to be much.   We must do very well in the BE

LSU will be good once Hornsby is back and Craig Victor becomes eligible.  Plus they're as inexperienced as us so if we end up good as the season goes on they likely will to. 

[Benny B]

RPI is virtually meaningless until OOC play is over and conference teams begin to play one another.  To project that MU must do A, B and C in order to get to an RPI of X is ridiculous.  The biggest factor influencing RPI volatility is the OOC results in D-I, and we're not even halfway through that part of the season.

75% of RPI is based upon the outcome of other teams' games... it's one thing to project MU's remaining 26 games, it's another thing to have to project those 26 opponents' other 25 games (that's up to 650 games - probably about 50% of that with duplication of opponents - more likely around 300 or so) for those keeping track at home) as well as the outcome of those 26 opponents' opponents' games (the math for which I'm not even going to attempt).  And as we've seen this year so far, there is a Shiite-ton of parity in D-I; which makes predicting the season (and therefore projecting results) an exercise in futility.

Even with that being said, keep in mind that RPI is where a team ranks relative to other teams based on their ratings percentage (RP), which is the result of the RPI formula.  Consider that Kentucky's RP last year was .6731 (which was #1, KU and UW were tied for 2nd at a distant .6630)... in theory, MU could end the year with an RP of .6800 and not be ranked #1, maybe not even in the top 10 or top 25 depending on where other teams' RP's end up.

Looking at the #50 RPI over the past five years, the RP's were .5672, .5754, .5855, .5778 and .5744, or a range of .0183.  Now look at the difference between RPI #35 and #50 in those five years:  .0174, .0190, .0108, .0199, .0123.

In other words, even if you felt awesome about your MU predictions, even an error of .0100 - which might be as simple as an opposite outcome in 10 of those 30 other games - could result in a +/- 15 swing in RPI, i.e. a few games here and there could be the difference between an RPI of #38 (comfortably in at-large) and #68 (not even close A/L).

The lesson to be taken here is not the RPI discussion, it's the value-add metric.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Going 1-0 each game is the only thing that matters right now. We still control out own destiny. I would have liked to beat Belmont but that's not a resume killer. Get through the cupcakes, beat Bucky and hope we have a much improved team for what looks to be a very strong conference 1-7.

[MUMountin]

LSU will be good once Hornsby is back and Craig Victor becomes eligible.  Plus they're as inexperienced as us so if we end up good as the season goes on they likely will to.

They'd better hope that happens soon--just got blasted at College of Charleston. 

ESPN's really got to be struggling to figure out how to keep hyping Simmons as much as they want to when the team is so atrocious.

[jsglow]

They'd better hope that happens soon--just got blasted at College of Charleston. 

ESPN's really got to be struggling to figure out how to keep hyping Simmons as much as they want to when the team is so atrocious.

Wow.  Tons of talent.  I thought they had more than anyone in Brooklyn.  Poorly harnessed.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wow.  Tons of talent.  I thought they had more than anyone in Brooklyn.  Poorly harnessed.

Puts our expectations for our lower ranked freshmen class in perspective. LSU will be alright when Hornsby comes back and Victor is eligible

[MUMountin]

Puts our expectations for our lower ranked freshmen class in perspective. LSU will be alright when Hornsby comes back and Victor is eligible

Agreed.  Makes me feel pretty decent about where we are at with our development at this point.

[brewcity77]

We need as many resume building wins as we can get. Beat the Badgers would be a great start. The key to conference is winning as many road games as possible while holding down the fort as much as possible at home.  Then win at least one in the Big East Tournament.

Pretty sure "win on the road, win at home" is a surefire way for anyone to get into the tournament.

For RPI purposes, it's more important to win at home than on the road, though, oddly enough.

[Jay Bee]

For RPI purposes, it's more important to win at home than on the road, though, oddly enough.

**if you've got a +.500 adjusted win-loss percentage