[Cracked Sidewalks] MU must beat Wisconsin, go 11-7 in Big East, win a tournament game to get to RPI of 53

[jsglow]

Is it fair to say that Conference RPI is largely determinant of how many bids (by percentage) the conference gets?  Said another way, in a normally distributed Conference Standing at the end of the year would a second place conference RPI basically 'guarantee' that the BEast gets 5 (or 6) and doesn't the conference get to 'insist' that teams are taken in finishing order barring a unusual upset in the conference tourney?

With all that said, I really believe the BEast will get at least 5 bids.  So I think it's incumbent on us to finish in the top half.  It seems to me that 11-7 would certainly get that done and get us in.  But what do I know?   

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Not very often does the 5th place team from the Big East miss the Tourney.  In fact, that never happens.

I agree that we could get in with a 53 RPI. But this statement is wrong. The Big East as we now know it has only existed for two seasons. In the first season, we only got four teams into the tournament. The fourth team, Providence,  won the Big East tournament as a 4 seed in NYC and only got an 11 seed in the NCAA. If they hadn't won it, I don't think it would be a stretch to say that we would have only had three in the tournament. So for exactly half of the Big East's existence, it has gotten less than five teams into the tournament.

But I agree with your overall premise. Don't get embarrassed by any of the cupcakes. And take care of business in the Big East and we should be dancing. I don't think 5th place does it though. I think we need 4th place. Making the tourney from 5th place would require wins at Bucky or in the BEast tourney.

[dgies9156]

Statistics or no statistics, here's the reality:

  We have to have at least one win against three of the four power teams in our conference -- Villanova, Georgetown, Xavier and Butler.

  We have to take care of business against the lesser five teams -- Providence, St. John's, the Hall, DePaul and Creighton.

  The reality is that somewhere along the line the statistics will hide the fact that one of these five lesser teams will have a hot night and business will not be handled. So for us to make the NCAA, we need to win our home conference games and virtually all of the road conference games against the lesser five. If we do that, we'll be in. It's possible and if we win all our home conference games -- that gives a small amount of room for error.

Oh, and if we beat the Red Rodent of Wackoville, our resume should actually look pretty good.

[Jay Bee]

Unfortunately 53 RPI means we aren't going to the NCAA.   Not very often does an at large team with that RPI go dancing.

The meaning of 'not very often' as I understand it would classify this statement as false.

Hate the RPI, glad the committee looks beyond it. Isn't there a better metric (Pomeroy, Sagarin or something else) to use?

I'm not sure there's any metric that is the best in all situations. Selecting teams should be based on a rigorous analysis and consideration of the details, not just a rating. Pomeroy is great for what it is, but there are inherent limitations within the system and it's a projection system, not a recap of performance.

Is it fair to say that Conference RPI is largely determinant of how many bids (by percentage) the conference gets?  Said another way, in a normally distributed Conference Standing at the end of the year would a second place conference RPI basically 'guarantee' that the BEast gets 5 (or 6) and doesn't the conference get to 'insist' that teams are taken in finishing order barring a unusual upset in the conference tourney?

Would be interesting to see how conference RPI and # of bids correlate... the committee has said the conference you're in doesn't matter... however, there may be a strong correlation.

[bilsu]

When you have an RPI in the fifties they are going to look at your record against other teams in the NCAA field. Assuming we go 11-2 in non-conference that adds another loss to UW who I am expecting to lose to Oklahoma and Syracuse. That would put them 8-5 in non conference and I do not think they are good enough to finish in the top half of the Big Ten. I also do not think that ASU and LSU are NCAA tourney teams. In the end the lack of wins against teams in the field is going to keep us out. I would say we need to go 12-6 in Big East and 1-1 or 11-7 and 2-1. Basically 13 Big East wins between regular season and Big East tourney.

[jsglow]

When you have an RPI in the fifties they are going to look at your record against other teams in the NCAA field. Assuming we go 11-2 in non-conference thqat adds another loss to UW who I am expecting to lse to Oklahoma and Syracuse. That would put them 8-5 in non conference and I do not think they are good enough to finish in the top half of the Big Ten. I also do not hink that ASU and LSU are NCAA tourney teams. In the end the lack of wins against teams in the field is going to keep us out. I would say we need to go 12-6 in Big East and 1-1 or 11-7 and 2-1. Basically 13 Big East wins between regular season and Big East tourney.

Somebody has to be invited, a'ina.  Last year, St. John's finished conference play 10-8, were 11-2 non-con (0-2 against ranked teams), got immediately crushed by Providence in the conference tourney, and still danced.  Worse yet, Xavier was 9-9 in conference, scuffled at 9-3 non-con with nary a Top 25 opponent, but admittedly had a nice 2-1 NYC run and danced all the way to Sweet 16.   

[ChicosBailBonds]

Last year alone: Purdue 55, LSU 58, Ole Miss 60, Indiana 61 all made the Dance with an RPI below 53.  Ole Miss was the only one of those teams that played in the first 4.  The rest were either a 9 or 10 seed.  Power conference teams get a better deal than mid-majors like Dayton (RPI 33) who play in the first four or go to the NIT.  As long as the BE is a top 6 conference, MU can get in with an RPI of 53.  Not a guarantee but definitely possible.

Fair enough.  "Not very often" we can quibble about.  Some years teams in the 50's have taken a blood bath, others not quite as bad.  Definitely a possibility.

A couple of questions I would throw out there.  Those schools you mentioned above are all P5 schools, the Big East is not a P5 conference.  In my view it is definitely a power conference, but just throwing it out there.  Also, I don't see us beating Wisconsin at Wisconsin nor do I see us going 11-7 in the Big East, but hope both things come true.

[cheebs09]

Seeing what Xavier is doing right now, what Butler's offense has been, and how good Nova is, we are going to have to take care of business with the bottom of the conference to have any shot at 11-7. I think we will definitely improve as the season goes on, but our defense is going to have to accelerate and we have to do much better taking care of the ball quickly. We will need to hit the ground running in conference since our margin of error is really thin.

[MarquetteDano]

Seeing what Xavier is doing right now, what Butler's offense has been, and how good Nova is, we are going to have to take care of business with the bottom of the conference to have any shot at 11-7. I think we will definitely improve as the season goes on, but our defense is going to have to accelerate and we have to do much better taking care of the ball quickly. We will need to hit the ground running in conference since our margin of error is really thin.

Still think there is a chance we can either lose three in the non-con (assuming loss is UW-Madison), 11-7 conf, or lose 2 non-con, and 10-8 conference but you are right.  Going to have to nearly hold serve at home.... 8-1 at home must be the goal in the Big East.

[MUMountin]

I also do not hink that ASU and LSU are NCAA tourney teams.

I think this is a big part of the problem.  As good as the wins felt this week, I think the reality is that ASU and LSU are not great teams.  I hope that LSU's talent can overcome their obvious flaws as a basketball team and they can play well the rest of the year.  We really need these two to do well for those games to mean something.

[brewcity77]

Somebody has to be invited, a'ina.  Last year, St. John's finished conference play 10-8, were 11-2 non-con (0-2 against ranked teams), got immediately crushed by Providence in the conference tourney, and still danced.  Worse yet, Xavier was 9-9 in conference, scuffled at 9-3 non-con with nary a Top 25 opponent, but admittedly had a nice 2-1 NYC run and danced all the way to Sweet 16.

Yeah, but look at St John's non-con schedule last year. Not just the top end games, but the lower end ones. Their two losses were to top 10 Duke and Gonzaga. Only one sub-300 opponent. Four teams in the 100-250 range.

Our non-con schedule sucks. Anyone thinking our Big East position is all that matters is being willfully ignorant. Think back to our 2011 Sweet Sixteen team. We barely got in as an 11 seed with a 9-9 league record. Why? Six sub-300 opponents. Who else got in with a 9-9 Big East record? UConn, who was a 3-seed because they only had two sub-300 opponents.

It will take 22-23 wins for us to get in. If we lose at Bucky and slip in another home game, we could go 12-6 in league and probably still get left out if we don't win one in NYC. Our schedule is that bad.

[cheebs09]

I have a tough time seeing a 11-7 Big East team not getting in, much less 12-6. To get either of those two records, you would need to have some good resume building wins.

However, if we would lose UW and another and then go 11-7, short of sweeping Nova and Georgetown, I'd be sweating. That would really compound a bad non-conference schedule. However, if we win out in the non-conference, I think an >.500 record puts us in pretty good shape. There's been a lot of bad losses in the non-conference around the country. I think it will be a fairly soft bubble. However, I think 10-8 is going to be an uphill battle. The Big East is looking strong and our margin is pretty thin.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Yeah, but look at St John's non-con schedule last year. Not just the top end games, but the lower end ones. Their two losses were to top 10 Duke and Gonzaga. Only one sub-300 opponent. Four teams in the 100-250 range.

Our non-con schedule sucks. Anyone thinking our Big East position is all that matters is being willfully ignorant. Think back to our 2011 Sweet Sixteen team. We barely got in as an 11 seed with a 9-9 league record. Why? Six sub-300 opponents. Who else got in with a 9-9 Big East record? UConn, who was a 3-seed because they only had two sub-300 opponents.

It will take 22-23 wins for us to get in. If we lose at Bucky and slip in another home game, we could go 12-6 in league and probably still get left out if we don't win one in NYC. Our schedule is that bad.

Yup, agree completely.  Not only that, wins over LSU and ASU....maybe I'm way off here, but I don't think those teams are that good.  They are name brand teams, but that doesn't mean they are good basketball teams.  Hope I'm wrong, but I'm sticking to NIT at best for this squad.  Want to be wrong badly, but our schedule works against us big time this year.

[jsglow]

Yeah, but look at St John's non-con schedule last year. Not just the top end games, but the lower end ones. Their two losses were to top 10 Duke and Gonzaga. Only one sub-300 opponent. Four teams in the 100-250 range.

Our non-con schedule sucks. Anyone thinking our Big East position is all that matters is being willfully ignorant. Think back to our 2011 Sweet Sixteen team. We barely got in as an 11 seed with a 9-9 league record. Why? Six sub-300 opponents. Who else got in with a 9-9 Big East record? UConn, who was a 3-seed because they only had two sub-300 opponents.

It will take 22-23 wins for us to get in. If we lose at Bucky and slip in another home game, we could go 12-6 in league and probably still get left out if we don't win one in NYC. Our schedule is that bad.

Brew, you're better than that.  UConn was a #3 seed because they freakin' won the 16 team BEast tournament.  (And then went on to win the NCAA in possibly the greatest post season run ever.)  I acknowledge the weakness of our non con schedule but to make an assertion that UConn's seed was based on their 'superior' non-con opponents is patently ridiculous.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Brew, you're better than that.  UConn was a #3 seed because they freakin' won the 16 team BEast tournament.  (And then went on to win the NCAA in possibly the greatest post season run ever.)  I acknowledge the weakness of our non con schedule but to make an assertion that UConn's seed was based on their 'superior' non-con opponents is patently ridiculous.

I wouldn't say it was patently ridiculous, though perhaps a stretch.   UCONN that year did go 9-9 in the Big East, but they also beat Michigan State, Kentucky, Texas, Harvard, won the Maui, etc.  No question their Big East tournament helped a ton, but their SOS was ranked #1 in the country that year and the committee said they rewarded them for playing such a tough schedule.

[jsglow]

I wouldn't say it was patently ridiculous, though perhaps a stretch.   UCONN that year did go 9-9 in the Big East, but they also beat Michigan State, Kentucky, Texas, Harvard, won the Maui, etc.  No question their Big East tournament helped a ton, but their SOS was ranked #1 in the country that year and the committee said they rewarded them for playing such a tough schedule.

They certainly were an enigma that year.  Truly a special team.

[oldwarrior81]

UConn went 9-9 in conference play in 2011.
23-0 in non-conference games.

[MU82]

This is some interesting stuff, but ...

I am just not going to worry about the season-long ramifications of each win or loss.

I want us to get to the tourney as much as any fan does, but I also want to enjoy each game. I want to enjoy watching Henry play for as long as he's here. I want to watch our guys grow as individuals and as a collective group. I want to see Wojo improve as a coach.

I was in Brooklyn and enjoyed every second of it. Never once did I turn to any of my fellow fans around me and say, "I wonder how this will affect our NCAA tourney chances?"

To me, tournament play would be a HUGE bonus this season. The destination will take care of itself. I plan to enjoy the journey.

[bamamarquettefan]

Looks like for your forecast a 4-5 conference road record was assumed.

If you switch out a road win in exchange for another home win, it HELPS us (based on the current assumptions... using different assumptions, it simply depends on the numerator vs. denominator math... i.e., in a losing adjusted win percentage, a home win instead of road win hurts your AWP, a'inal?). But, 7-2 at home is already assumed.. yikes.

Hopefully a couple of the cruddy opponents can win more conference games than expected to help us out.

yes, on this one I just took the next most likely wins based on Sagarin to get to the record I was trying out - not really making judgments on which I believe are more likely - but in reflecting you are correct because getting 0.6 wins for a home win and 0.6 losses for a road loss would not come out quite the same as if it were flipped and we received 1.4 wins and 1.4 losses for the road win and home loss. Good catch

[bamamarquettefan]

Out of curiosity couldn't it also be about which wins? I mean is it better to get swept by nova and X and sweep everybody lower or on par with us or is it better to get a win against nova and then split with say Creighton.

Yes, you are correct (same reason as my previous reply)

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Brew, you're better than that.  UConn was a #3 seed because they freakin' won the 16 team BEast tournament.  (And then went on to win the NCAA in possibly the greatest post season run ever.)  I acknowledge the weakness of our non con schedule but to make an assertion that UConn's seed was based on their 'superior' non-con opponents is patently ridiculous.

Ding ding ding. Was about to type the same thing.

[brewcity77]

Brew, you're better than that.  UConn was a #3 seed because they freakin' won the 16 team BEast tournament.  (And then went on to win the NCAA in possibly the greatest post season run ever.)  I acknowledge the weakness of our non con schedule but to make an assertion that UConn's seed was based on their 'superior' non-con opponents is patently ridiculous.

Don't forget we won two games in NYC. That helped UConn but it's purely comical to think we would have jumped 8 seed lines had we won a couple more games. Non-con scheduling matters. Our non-con was weaker than theirs and we did worse against it. Had they lost their first game in the BET they still would have been comfortably in the tournament, a luxury we did not have because of a weak non-con schedule. And that weak non-con schedule was still tougher than the one we have this year.

Bottom line, we won't get in with 19-20 wins and probably not with 21. Sad to say, but the Wisconsin game is darn near must win already. Playing well at the end could help us, but a total of 21 wins will give us a sub-70 RPI. That won't get it done unless the last 3 wins are at Madison Square Garden.

[jsglow]

Don't forget we won two games in NYC. That helped UConn but it's purely comical to think we would have jumped 8 seed lines had we won a couple more games. Non-con scheduling matters. Our non-con was weaker than theirs and we did worse against it. Had they lost their first game in the BET they still would have been comfortably in the tournament, a luxury we did not have because of a weak non-con schedule. And that weak non-con schedule was still tougher than the one we have this year.

Bottom line, we won't get in with 19-20 wins and probably not with 21. Sad to say, but the Wisconsin game is darn near must win already. Playing well at the end could help us, but a total of 21 wins will give us a sub-70 RPI. That won't get it done unless the last 3 wins are at Madison Square Garden.

That's all true Brew. I do remember the discussion that UConn was comfortable and that we needed tourney success prior to MSG. Going strictly off faded memory,  I seem to recall them being discussed as around an 8 prior to their run while we were probably out.

I guess the bottom line is this.  A week ago this discussion would have seemed silly.  H*'ll, some wanted Wojo fired.  I would have only agreed to the 200 miles tomorrow because we'd get to see the kids.  Now I'm kinda excited again. 

[MU82]

If we must beat Bucky ... then we shall beat Bucky!

It's not as if this is one of Bo's better squads.

[Herman Cain]

We need as many resume building wins as we can get. Beat the Badgers would be a great start. The key to conference is winning as many road games as possible while holding down the fort as much as possible at home.  Then win at least one in the Big East Tournament.