Post by: CrackedSidewalks on November 26, 2015, 01:30:06 AM
Despite the big wins in New York, RPI Forecast gives MU less than a 10% chance to go 23-10, which is what it would take to get MU to an RPI of 53 and trip to the NCAA.
According to RPI Forecast and the pure Wins and Losses at www.kenpom.com, MU should finish the regular season 16-15 with an RPI of 177. The good news is this is based on results during which Henry Ellenson's Value Add has been just 0.4 due to his first three games including 12 of 35 shooting and 10 turnovers. The good news is that if Ellenson keeps building on strong play in New York and gets to his projected 7.4 Value Add for the year, that 7-point improvement would tip seven additional wins for Marquette based on www.kenpom.com projected scores to finish 23-8 before the Big East tournament and make the NCAA tournament.
So there is hope as Marquette fans go into the Thanksgiving Weekend very thankful for two exciting and huge wins in New York this week against #22 LSU and Arizona State, as the team won praise by many including Reid Forgrave of Fox Sports.
That means it would take a 23-10 record to get an NCAA bid - even one more loss to drop to 22-11 plummets Marquette to 69th in RPI based on the RPI Forecast calculator.
Traci Carter's EXCELLENT play that has put him among assists leaders at www.kenpom.com and helped Duane Wilson, Luke Fischer and Haanif Cheatham combine to hit more than 2/3rds of their two-point shots. However, he will be going up against the toughest conference for a point guard - and an 11-7 mark for a team with a freshman point guard looks tough.
However, there is hope. The good news is young teams improve more during the season than other teams, and as the 10th least experience team in the country, MU has a great ceiling. So far the team is the WORST three-point shooting team of the 77 teams in the top six conferences, and MU is the 8th worst at turning the ball over. Assuming Henry Ellenson and Duane Wilson find their three-point stroke and the young team learns to protect the ball moderately well, the team would make a huge stride forward and the 23-10 record represented above would be possible.
In addition to the Fox Sports praise, a second basketball expert (Rob Dauster of NBC Sports) recently called MU one of the most underachieving team in the opening few games and saw the combination of the twin towers and talented guards as enough to rank MU 23rd in the nation in June.
So far only Luke Fischer has played up to expectations based on www.valueaddbasketball.com. He projected to be worth about 3.56 additional points a game, through the team's terrible first three games he was almost there at 3.19, and in the two wins in New York he was right at the 3.56 projection to raise his season total to date to 3.40 - in the top 10% (top 400) of all players.
Beyond Ellenson, other huge improvements from Duane Wilson and others are possible - as well as he is harassing opponents and getting to the rim, if his three-pointer and even free throws start to drop at all the defenses will spread and give MU a shot to be truly great.
Here are the projections for each players (Replacement Level indicates most players were playing no better than a solid replacement player would have been expected to play), followed by where they ranked through the 1-2 start and where they rank now. The start was very bad, the improvement was very dramatic, and the ceiling is high enough to potentially sneak into the tournament - but the margin of error is very small.
| Player | Projection | When 1-2 | Now | NBA% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fischer, Luke 40 | 3.56 (458th) | 3.19 (438th) | 3.40 (397th) | |
| Cohen, Sandy 5 | 2.53 (796th) | 1.28 (1678th) | 0.58 (1678th) | |
| Ellenson, Henry 13 | 7.40 (58th) | ReplacemLevel | 0.42 (1873rd) | 91% |
| Johnson, JaJuan 23 | 2.87 (655th) | ReplacemLevel | 0.37 (1936th) | 2% |
| Anim, Sacar 2 | 1.20 (1623rd) | ReplacemLevel | 0.35 (1941st) | |
| Ellenson, Wally 22 | ReplacemLevel | ReplacemLevel | 0.10 (2365th) | |
| Wilson, Duane 1 | 5.27 (192nd) | ReplacemLevel | ReplacemLevel | 5% |
| Heldt, Matt 12 | 1.00 (1973rd) | ReplacemLevel | ReplacemLevel | |
| Carter, Traci 21 | 2.10 (1004th) | ReplacemLevel | ReplacemLevel | |
| Cheatham, Haanif 25 | 2.35 (878th) | ReplacemLevel | ReplacemLevel | |
| Marotta, Cam | ReplacemLevel | ReplacemLevel | ReplacemLevel |
Source: MU must beat Wisconsin, go 11-7 in Big East, win a tournament game to get to RPI of 53 (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2015/11/mu-must-beat-wisconsin-go-11-7-in-big.html)
Post by: UticaBusBarn on November 26, 2015, 03:21:30 AM
Good stuff - on turkey and stuffing day! Thank you.
Obviously, the Warriors have a huge up-side. If we all keep our perspective (and sense of humour) while watching the eighth youngest team in the nation play (and, hopefully develop), it should be a really entertaining season.
Post by: bamamarquettefan on November 26, 2015, 05:54:11 AM
Post by: real chili 83 on November 26, 2015, 06:05:27 AM
Thanks for the info and the great post.
I'm calling it....this team will beat Wisconsin and make the tournament. There is too much untapped talent, and Wojo has their attention
Happy Thanksgiving!
Post by: brewcity77 on November 26, 2015, 02:33:01 PM
Post by: Jay Bee on November 26, 2015, 02:45:10 PM
If you switch out a road win in exchange for another home win, it HELPS us (based on the current assumptions... using different assumptions, it simply depends on the numerator vs. denominator math... i.e., in a losing adjusted win percentage, a home win instead of road win hurts your AWP, a'inal?). But, 7-2 at home is already assumed.. yikes.
Hopefully a couple of the cruddy opponents can win more conference games than expected to help us out.
Post by: wadesworld on November 26, 2015, 03:01:28 PM
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on November 26, 2015, 03:18:14 PM
Post by: brewcity77 on November 26, 2015, 03:52:24 PM
Looks like for your forecast a 4-5 conference road record was assumed.
If you switch out a road win in exchange for another home win, it HELPS us (based on the current assumptions... using different assumptions, it simply depends on the numerator vs. denominator math... i.e., in a losing adjusted win percentage, a home win instead of road win hurts your AWP, a'inal?). But, 7-2 at home is already assumed.. yikes.
Hopefully a couple of the cruddy opponents can win more conference games than expected to help us out.
That has to be one of the most interesting things about the RPI. Everyone talks about getting road wins, but all things being equal, it almost always seems holding serve at home is more important.
At the end of the day, though, it's really about wins. Which wins and which losses only make a minimal difference. We'll need 22-23 to get in. Having a sub-60 RPI with our SOS just won't do it.
Post by: Galway Eagle on November 26, 2015, 03:56:32 PM
Post by: HouWarrior on November 26, 2015, 04:13:07 PM
BUT...
Darnit...
I read the thread caption and cursed to myself.
In the old days ....In November.....November....I had NO idea whether my beloved Warriors stood any any NCAA chance...,what it would take to get them in,....whether or where there would be seeded. Every game,week ,month was a mystery ,debatable, emotionally charged roller coaster that only came to head on a nerve wracking Selection Sunday.
I miss this. Ignorance here was blissful fandom. I am thankful for progress, and all the help of analytics....but..... I miss the not knowing or even having any insight to our prospects other than some guy at the end of the bar. Ignorant sports banter over drinks at a bar is way more fun and social than "social" media can ever hope to be.....but I know....now...its
Ok , ok...Grandpa stop yelling at the kids to get off your yard, come inside, go sit in your recliner,and have some turkey before the Packers are on TV.
Happy Turkey day Scoopers.
Post by: GooooMarquette on November 26, 2015, 05:03:39 PM
This is a great post and analysis...its great how analytics has changed the game.....
BUT...
Darnit...
I read the thread caption and cursed to myself.
In the old days ....In November.....November....I had NO idea whether my beloved Warriors stood any any NCAA chance...,what it would take to get them in,....whether or where there would be seeded. Every game,week ,month was a mystery ,debatable, emotionally charged roller coaster that only came to head on a nerve wracking Selection Sunday.
I miss this. Ignorance here was blissful fandom. I am thankful for progress, and all the help of analytics....but..... I miss the not knowing or even having any insight to our prospects other than some guy at the end of the bar. Ignorant sports banter over drinks at a bar is way more fun and social than "social" media can ever hope to be.....but I know....now...its
Ok , ok...Grandpa stop yelling at the kids to get off your yard, come inside, go sit in your recliner,and have some turkey before the Packers are on TV.
Happy Turkey day Scoopers.
Yep. But we aren't going back to that blissful ignorance.
Post by: chapman on November 26, 2015, 05:17:11 PM
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on November 26, 2015, 05:21:34 PM
Post by: brewcity77 on November 26, 2015, 05:21:37 PM
Out of curiosity couldn't it also be about which wins? I mean is it better to get swept by nova and X and sweep everybody lower or on par with us or is it better to get a win against nova and then split with say Creighton.
Whatever wins you get are balanced by the losses. Go to RPIForecast.com and use the Wizard. Give us whatever combination of wins and losses you like. Then swap a big win with a medium one. Say Villanova for Creighton. Might make a difference of 1-2 points of RPI, but not much. Even change 3 or 4 games and the difference is surprisingly minimal. In general, wins will tell you the RPI, no matter which games they are.
Post by: Jay Bee on November 26, 2015, 07:06:16 PM
Out of curiosity couldn't it also be about which wins? I mean is it better to get swept by nova and X and sweep everybody lower or on par with us or is it better to get a win against nova and then split with say Creighton.
The RPI calc doesn't care who you beat and who you lose to (directly; however, beating a better opponent instead of a lesser opponent can actually HURT your RPI, depending on component 3 factors). The RPI calc cares only about your wins and losses, adjusted for game location; opponents' win-losses (excluding the game(s) against you); and opponents' opponents' win-losses. That's it.
The selection committee, however, does.
Post by: naginiF on November 26, 2015, 07:20:47 PM
1) given that RPI and value add are evolving measures what's a reasonable duration to relook at RPI/VA? Every month?
2) how the hell are we "So far the team is the WORST three-point shooting team of the 77 teams in the top six conferences, and MU is the 8th worst at turning the ball over."...........with three 20+ turnover games the 7 teams behind us must be horrible on their fan base.
Post by: bilsu on November 26, 2015, 07:24:28 PM
Post by: BM1090 on November 26, 2015, 07:27:54 PM
It would be close, but I suspect a team with an RPI of 53 has a greater chance of being in the first four out than the last four in.
Nah, 53 with 22+ wins and we'd be in.
Post by: Lennys Tap on November 26, 2015, 09:27:40 PM
The RPI calc doesn't care who you beat and who you lose to (directly; however, beating a better opponent instead of a lesser opponent can actually HURT your RPI, depending on component 3 factors). The RPI calc cares only about your wins and losses, adjusted for game location; opponents' win-losses (excluding the game(s) against you); and opponents' opponents' win-losses. That's it.
The selection committee, however, does.
Hate the RPI, glad the committee looks beyond it. Isn't there a better metric (Pomeroy, Sagarin or something else) to use?
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on November 26, 2015, 11:23:12 PM
Post by: MUSF on November 27, 2015, 12:10:31 AM
Trying to project in November where this team will be in March is nearly pointless. So much bball left to play.
Post by: wadesworld on November 27, 2015, 12:36:15 AM
Unfortunately 53 RPI means we aren't going to the NCAA. Not very often does an at large team with that RPI go dancing.
Not very often does the 5th place team from the Big East miss the Tourney. In fact, that never happens. The Big East will not be putting 4 or less teams into the NCAA Tournament, especially with the non-conference success, as a whole, that the conference is having. And the 6th place team won't get into the NCAA Tournament ahead of the 5th place team unless it was a tie for 5th and the "6th" place team had a far better non-conference portion of their schedule.
I've said it over and over and over. Our schedule will not be what keeps us out of the tournament.
Post by: mubb3434 on November 27, 2015, 06:40:25 AM
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on November 27, 2015, 08:23:52 AM
Unfortunately 53 RPI means we aren't going to the NCAA. Not very often does an at large team with that RPI go dancing.
Last year alone: Purdue 55, LSU 58, Ole Miss 60, Indiana 61 all made the Dance with an RPI below 53. Ole Miss was the only one of those teams that played in the first 4. The rest were either a 9 or 10 seed. Power conference teams get a better deal than mid-majors like Dayton (RPI 33) who play in the first four or go to the NIT. As long as the BE is a top 6 conference, MU can get in with an RPI of 53. Not a guarantee but definitely possible.
Post by: jsglow on November 27, 2015, 09:05:17 AM
With all that said, I really believe the BEast will get at least 5 bids. So I think it's incumbent on us to finish in the top half. It seems to me that 11-7 would certainly get that done and get us in. But what do I know?
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 27, 2015, 10:10:01 AM
Not very often does the 5th place team from the Big East miss the Tourney. In fact, that never happens.
I agree that we could get in with a 53 RPI. But this statement is wrong. The Big East as we now know it has only existed for two seasons. In the first season, we only got four teams into the tournament. The fourth team, Providence, won the Big East tournament as a 4 seed in NYC and only got an 11 seed in the NCAA. If they hadn't won it, I don't think it would be a stretch to say that we would have only had three in the tournament. So for exactly half of the Big East's existence, it has gotten less than five teams into the tournament.
But I agree with your overall premise. Don't get embarrassed by any of the cupcakes. And take care of business in the Big East and we should be dancing. I don't think 5th place does it though. I think we need 4th place. Making the tourney from 5th place would require wins at Bucky or in the BEast tourney.
Post by: dgies9156 on November 27, 2015, 10:11:29 AM
We have to have at least one win against three of the four power teams in our conference -- Villanova, Georgetown, Xavier and Butler.
We have to take care of business against the lesser five teams -- Providence, St. John's, the Hall, DePaul and Creighton.
The reality is that somewhere along the line the statistics will hide the fact that one of these five lesser teams will have a hot night and business will not be handled. So for us to make the NCAA, we need to win our home conference games and virtually all of the road conference games against the lesser five. If we do that, we'll be in. It's possible and if we win all our home conference games -- that gives a small amount of room for error.
Oh, and if we beat the Red Rodent of Wackoville, our resume should actually look pretty good.
Post by: Jay Bee on November 27, 2015, 10:42:56 AM
Unfortunately 53 RPI means we aren't going to the NCAA. Not very often does an at large team with that RPI go dancing.
The meaning of 'not very often' as I understand it would classify this statement as false.
Hate the RPI, glad the committee looks beyond it. Isn't there a better metric (Pomeroy, Sagarin or something else) to use?
I'm not sure there's any metric that is the best in all situations. Selecting teams should be based on a rigorous analysis and consideration of the details, not just a rating. Pomeroy is great for what it is, but there are inherent limitations within the system and it's a projection system, not a recap of performance.
Is it fair to say that Conference RPI is largely determinant of how many bids (by percentage) the conference gets? Said another way, in a normally distributed Conference Standing at the end of the year would a second place conference RPI basically 'guarantee' that the BEast gets 5 (or 6) and doesn't the conference get to 'insist' that teams are taken in finishing order barring a unusual upset in the conference tourney?
Would be interesting to see how conference RPI and # of bids correlate... the committee has said the conference you're in doesn't matter... however, there may be a strong correlation.
Post by: bilsu on November 27, 2015, 12:43:51 PM
Post by: jsglow on November 27, 2015, 01:22:30 PM
When you have an RPI in the fifties they are going to look at your record against other teams in the NCAA field. Assuming we go 11-2 in non-conference thqat adds another loss to UW who I am expecting to lse to Oklahoma and Syracuse. That would put them 8-5 in non conference and I do not think they are good enough to finish in the top half of the Big Ten. I also do not hink that ASU and LSU are NCAA tourney teams. In the end the lack of wins against teams in the field is going to keep us out. I would say we need to go 12-6 in Big East and 1-1 or 11-7 and 2-1. Basically 13 Big East wins between regular season and Big East tourney.
Somebody has to be invited, a'ina. Last year, St. John's finished conference play 10-8, were 11-2 non-con (0-2 against ranked teams), got immediately crushed by Providence in the conference tourney, and still danced. Worse yet, Xavier was 9-9 in conference, scuffled at 9-3 non-con with nary a Top 25 opponent, but admittedly had a nice 2-1 NYC run and danced all the way to Sweet 16.
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on November 27, 2015, 01:45:03 PM
Last year alone: Purdue 55, LSU 58, Ole Miss 60, Indiana 61 all made the Dance with an RPI below 53. Ole Miss was the only one of those teams that played in the first 4. The rest were either a 9 or 10 seed. Power conference teams get a better deal than mid-majors like Dayton (RPI 33) who play in the first four or go to the NIT. As long as the BE is a top 6 conference, MU can get in with an RPI of 53. Not a guarantee but definitely possible.
Fair enough. "Not very often" we can quibble about. Some years teams in the 50's have taken a blood bath, others not quite as bad. Definitely a possibility.
A couple of questions I would throw out there. Those schools you mentioned above are all P5 schools, the Big East is not a P5 conference. In my view it is definitely a power conference, but just throwing it out there. Also, I don't see us beating Wisconsin at Wisconsin nor do I see us going 11-7 in the Big East, but hope both things come true.
Post by: cheebs09 on November 27, 2015, 02:35:32 PM
Post by: MarquetteDano on November 27, 2015, 03:22:21 PM
Seeing what Xavier is doing right now, what Butler's offense has been, and how good Nova is, we are going to have to take care of business with the bottom of the conference to have any shot at 11-7. I think we will definitely improve as the season goes on, but our defense is going to have to accelerate and we have to do much better taking care of the ball quickly. We will need to hit the ground running in conference since our margin of error is really thin.
Still think there is a chance we can either lose three in the non-con (assuming loss is UW-Madison), 11-7 conf, or lose 2 non-con, and 10-8 conference but you are right. Going to have to nearly hold serve at home.... 8-1 at home must be the goal in the Big East.
Post by: MUMountin on November 27, 2015, 05:13:32 PM
I also do not hink that ASU and LSU are NCAA tourney teams.
I think this is a big part of the problem. As good as the wins felt this week, I think the reality is that ASU and LSU are not great teams. I hope that LSU's talent can overcome their obvious flaws as a basketball team and they can play well the rest of the year. We really need these two to do well for those games to mean something.
Post by: brewcity77 on November 27, 2015, 05:59:33 PM
Somebody has to be invited, a'ina. Last year, St. John's finished conference play 10-8, were 11-2 non-con (0-2 against ranked teams), got immediately crushed by Providence in the conference tourney, and still danced. Worse yet, Xavier was 9-9 in conference, scuffled at 9-3 non-con with nary a Top 25 opponent, but admittedly had a nice 2-1 NYC run and danced all the way to Sweet 16.
Yeah, but look at St John's non-con schedule last year. Not just the top end games, but the lower end ones. Their two losses were to top 10 Duke and Gonzaga. Only one sub-300 opponent. Four teams in the 100-250 range.
Our non-con schedule sucks. Anyone thinking our Big East position is all that matters is being willfully ignorant. Think back to our 2011 Sweet Sixteen team. We barely got in as an 11 seed with a 9-9 league record. Why? Six sub-300 opponents. Who else got in with a 9-9 Big East record? UConn, who was a 3-seed because they only had two sub-300 opponents.
It will take 22-23 wins for us to get in. If we lose at Bucky and slip in another home game, we could go 12-6 in league and probably still get left out if we don't win one in NYC. Our schedule is that bad.
Post by: cheebs09 on November 27, 2015, 06:27:27 PM
However, if we would lose UW and another and then go 11-7, short of sweeping Nova and Georgetown, I'd be sweating. That would really compound a bad non-conference schedule. However, if we win out in the non-conference, I think an >.500 record puts us in pretty good shape. There's been a lot of bad losses in the non-conference around the country. I think it will be a fairly soft bubble. However, I think 10-8 is going to be an uphill battle. The Big East is looking strong and our margin is pretty thin.
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on November 27, 2015, 06:28:06 PM
Yeah, but look at St John's non-con schedule last year. Not just the top end games, but the lower end ones. Their two losses were to top 10 Duke and Gonzaga. Only one sub-300 opponent. Four teams in the 100-250 range.
Our non-con schedule sucks. Anyone thinking our Big East position is all that matters is being willfully ignorant. Think back to our 2011 Sweet Sixteen team. We barely got in as an 11 seed with a 9-9 league record. Why? Six sub-300 opponents. Who else got in with a 9-9 Big East record? UConn, who was a 3-seed because they only had two sub-300 opponents.
It will take 22-23 wins for us to get in. If we lose at Bucky and slip in another home game, we could go 12-6 in league and probably still get left out if we don't win one in NYC. Our schedule is that bad.
Yup, agree completely. Not only that, wins over LSU and ASU....maybe I'm way off here, but I don't think those teams are that good. They are name brand teams, but that doesn't mean they are good basketball teams. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm sticking to NIT at best for this squad. Want to be wrong badly, but our schedule works against us big time this year.
Post by: jsglow on November 27, 2015, 06:43:16 PM
Yeah, but look at St John's non-con schedule last year. Not just the top end games, but the lower end ones. Their two losses were to top 10 Duke and Gonzaga. Only one sub-300 opponent. Four teams in the 100-250 range.
Our non-con schedule sucks. Anyone thinking our Big East position is all that matters is being willfully ignorant. Think back to our 2011 Sweet Sixteen team. We barely got in as an 11 seed with a 9-9 league record. Why? Six sub-300 opponents. Who else got in with a 9-9 Big East record? UConn, who was a 3-seed because they only had two sub-300 opponents.
It will take 22-23 wins for us to get in. If we lose at Bucky and slip in another home game, we could go 12-6 in league and probably still get left out if we don't win one in NYC. Our schedule is that bad.
Brew, you're better than that. UConn was a #3 seed because they freakin' won the 16 team BEast tournament. (And then went on to win the NCAA in possibly the greatest post season run ever.) I acknowledge the weakness of our non con schedule but to make an assertion that UConn's seed was based on their 'superior' non-con opponents is patently ridiculous.
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on November 27, 2015, 06:53:02 PM
Brew, you're better than that. UConn was a #3 seed because they freakin' won the 16 team BEast tournament. (And then went on to win the NCAA in possibly the greatest post season run ever.) I acknowledge the weakness of our non con schedule but to make an assertion that UConn's seed was based on their 'superior' non-con opponents is patently ridiculous.
I wouldn't say it was patently ridiculous, though perhaps a stretch. UCONN that year did go 9-9 in the Big East, but they also beat Michigan State, Kentucky, Texas, Harvard, won the Maui, etc. No question their Big East tournament helped a ton, but their SOS was ranked #1 in the country that year and the committee said they rewarded them for playing such a tough schedule.
Post by: jsglow on November 27, 2015, 08:56:07 PM
I wouldn't say it was patently ridiculous, though perhaps a stretch. UCONN that year did go 9-9 in the Big East, but they also beat Michigan State, Kentucky, Texas, Harvard, won the Maui, etc. No question their Big East tournament helped a ton, but their SOS was ranked #1 in the country that year and the committee said they rewarded them for playing such a tough schedule.
They certainly were an enigma that year. Truly a special team.
Post by: oldwarrior81 on November 27, 2015, 09:16:41 PM
23-0 in non-conference games.
Post by: MU82 on November 27, 2015, 10:37:45 PM
I am just not going to worry about the season-long ramifications of each win or loss.
I want us to get to the tourney as much as any fan does, but I also want to enjoy each game. I want to enjoy watching Henry play for as long as he's here. I want to watch our guys grow as individuals and as a collective group. I want to see Wojo improve as a coach.
I was in Brooklyn and enjoyed every second of it. Never once did I turn to any of my fellow fans around me and say, "I wonder how this will affect our NCAA tourney chances?"
To me, tournament play would be a HUGE bonus this season. The destination will take care of itself. I plan to enjoy the journey.
Post by: bamamarquettefan on November 27, 2015, 11:35:59 PM
Looks like for your forecast a 4-5 conference road record was assumed.yes, on this one I just took the next most likely wins based on Sagarin to get to the record I was trying out - not really making judgments on which I believe are more likely - but in reflecting you are correct because getting 0.6 wins for a home win and 0.6 losses for a road loss would not come out quite the same as if it were flipped and we received 1.4 wins and 1.4 losses for the road win and home loss. Good catch
If you switch out a road win in exchange for another home win, it HELPS us (based on the current assumptions... using different assumptions, it simply depends on the numerator vs. denominator math... i.e., in a losing adjusted win percentage, a home win instead of road win hurts your AWP, a'inal?). But, 7-2 at home is already assumed.. yikes.
Hopefully a couple of the cruddy opponents can win more conference games than expected to help us out.
Post by: bamamarquettefan on November 27, 2015, 11:37:21 PM
Out of curiosity couldn't it also be about which wins? I mean is it better to get swept by nova and X and sweep everybody lower or on par with us or is it better to get a win against nova and then split with say Creighton.Yes, you are correct (same reason as my previous reply)
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on November 28, 2015, 12:02:55 AM
Brew, you're better than that. UConn was a #3 seed because they freakin' won the 16 team BEast tournament. (And then went on to win the NCAA in possibly the greatest post season run ever.) I acknowledge the weakness of our non con schedule but to make an assertion that UConn's seed was based on their 'superior' non-con opponents is patently ridiculous.
Ding ding ding. Was about to type the same thing.
Post by: brewcity77 on November 28, 2015, 07:16:55 AM
Brew, you're better than that. UConn was a #3 seed because they freakin' won the 16 team BEast tournament. (And then went on to win the NCAA in possibly the greatest post season run ever.) I acknowledge the weakness of our non con schedule but to make an assertion that UConn's seed was based on their 'superior' non-con opponents is patently ridiculous.
Don't forget we won two games in NYC. That helped UConn but it's purely comical to think we would have jumped 8 seed lines had we won a couple more games. Non-con scheduling matters. Our non-con was weaker than theirs and we did worse against it. Had they lost their first game in the BET they still would have been comfortably in the tournament, a luxury we did not have because of a weak non-con schedule. And that weak non-con schedule was still tougher than the one we have this year.
Bottom line, we won't get in with 19-20 wins and probably not with 21. Sad to say, but the Wisconsin game is darn near must win already. Playing well at the end could help us, but a total of 21 wins will give us a sub-70 RPI. That won't get it done unless the last 3 wins are at Madison Square Garden.
Post by: jsglow on November 28, 2015, 08:28:25 AM
Don't forget we won two games in NYC. That helped UConn but it's purely comical to think we would have jumped 8 seed lines had we won a couple more games. Non-con scheduling matters. Our non-con was weaker than theirs and we did worse against it. Had they lost their first game in the BET they still would have been comfortably in the tournament, a luxury we did not have because of a weak non-con schedule. And that weak non-con schedule was still tougher than the one we have this year.
Bottom line, we won't get in with 19-20 wins and probably not with 21. Sad to say, but the Wisconsin game is darn near must win already. Playing well at the end could help us, but a total of 21 wins will give us a sub-70 RPI. That won't get it done unless the last 3 wins are at Madison Square Garden.
That's all true Brew. I do remember the discussion that UConn was comfortable and that we needed tourney success prior to MSG. Going strictly off faded memory, I seem to recall them being discussed as around an 8 prior to their run while we were probably out.
I guess the bottom line is this. A week ago this discussion would have seemed silly. H*'ll, some wanted Wojo fired. I would have only agreed to the 200 miles tomorrow because we'd get to see the kids. Now I'm kinda excited again. :)
Post by: MU82 on November 30, 2015, 01:12:07 PM
It's not as if this is one of Bo's better squads.
Post by: Herman Cain on November 30, 2015, 01:31:12 PM
Post by: Sylvester78 on November 30, 2015, 01:36:02 PM
I am not even sure LSU will turn out to be much. We must do very well in the BE
Post by: Galway Eagle on November 30, 2015, 01:44:34 PM
Problem is even Bucky might not be a good win. They look awful and will struggle to go .500 in the Big whatever.
I am not even sure LSU will turn out to be much. We must do very well in the BE
LSU will be good once Hornsby is back and Craig Victor becomes eligible. Plus they're as inexperienced as us so if we end up good as the season goes on they likely will to.
Post by: Benny B on November 30, 2015, 02:21:18 PM
75% of RPI is based upon the outcome of other teams' games... it's one thing to project MU's remaining 26 games, it's another thing to have to project those 26 opponents' other 25 games (that's up to 650 games - probably about 50% of that with duplication of opponents - more likely around 300 or so) for those keeping track at home) as well as the outcome of those 26 opponents' opponents' games (the math for which I'm not even going to attempt). And as we've seen this year so far, there is a Shiite-ton of parity in D-I; which makes predicting the season (and therefore projecting results) an exercise in futility.
Even with that being said, keep in mind that RPI is where a team ranks relative to other teams based on their ratings percentage (RP), which is the result of the RPI formula. Consider that Kentucky's RP last year was .6731 (which was #1, KU and UW were tied for 2nd at a distant .6630)... in theory, MU could end the year with an RP of .6800 and not be ranked #1, maybe not even in the top 10 or top 25 depending on where other teams' RP's end up.
Looking at the #50 RPI over the past five years, the RP's were .5672, .5754, .5855, .5778 and .5744, or a range of .0183. Now look at the difference between RPI #35 and #50 in those five years: .0174, .0190, .0108, .0199, .0123.
In other words, even if you felt awesome about your MU predictions, even an error of .0100 - which might be as simple as an opposite outcome in 10 of those 30 other games - could result in a +/- 15 swing in RPI, i.e. a few games here and there could be the difference between an RPI of #38 (comfortably in at-large) and #68 (not even close A/L).
The lesson to be taken here is not the RPI discussion, it's the value-add metric.
Post by: ChitownSpaceForRent on November 30, 2015, 02:27:42 PM
Post by: MUMountin on November 30, 2015, 11:16:51 PM
LSU will be good once Hornsby is back and Craig Victor becomes eligible. Plus they're as inexperienced as us so if we end up good as the season goes on they likely will to.
They'd better hope that happens soon--just got blasted at College of Charleston.
ESPN's really got to be struggling to figure out how to keep hyping Simmons as much as they want to when the team is so atrocious.
Post by: jsglow on December 01, 2015, 06:47:19 AM
They'd better hope that happens soon--just got blasted at College of Charleston.
ESPN's really got to be struggling to figure out how to keep hyping Simmons as much as they want to when the team is so atrocious.
Wow. Tons of talent. I thought they had more than anyone in Brooklyn. Poorly harnessed.
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on December 01, 2015, 08:56:11 AM
Wow. Tons of talent. I thought they had more than anyone in Brooklyn. Poorly harnessed.
Puts our expectations for our lower ranked freshmen class in perspective. LSU will be alright when Hornsby comes back and Victor is eligible
Post by: MUMountin on December 01, 2015, 10:21:10 AM
Puts our expectations for our lower ranked freshmen class in perspective. LSU will be alright when Hornsby comes back and Victor is eligible
Agreed. Makes me feel pretty decent about where we are at with our development at this point.
Post by: brewcity77 on December 02, 2015, 01:24:20 PM
We need as many resume building wins as we can get. Beat the Badgers would be a great start. The key to conference is winning as many road games as possible while holding down the fort as much as possible at home. Then win at least one in the Big East Tournament.
Pretty sure "win on the road, win at home" is a surefire way for anyone to get into the tournament.
For RPI purposes, it's more important to win at home than on the road, though, oddly enough.
Post by: Jay Bee on December 02, 2015, 06:29:45 PM
For RPI purposes, it's more important to win at home than on the road, though, oddly enough.
**if you've got a +.500 adjusted win-loss percentage