MLB Offseason

[🏀]

Brewers trade Segura to the Dbacks.  Chase Anderson and a A ball pitcher coming back (seems like a legit prospect) along with Aaron Hill, for whom the Dbacks are paying.  Can Lucroy be far behind? 

On the Brewers end of the haul, Anderson is the jewel of the trade. The 28-year-old is a reliable changeup specialist. In 267 career innings, he has a 4.18 ERA (4.17 FIP) with 7.28 K/9 and 2.70 BB/9. His stuff performed slightly better in 2014 than 2015 as evidenced by superior strikeout and swinging strike rates. As a slightly homer prone fly ball pitcher, he's not a great fit for power happy Miller Park (the same was true at Chase Field). Anderson comes with five seasons of club control and will be a member of the rotation.

[NavinRJohnson]

Brewers trade Segura to the Dbacks.  Chase Anderson and a A ball pitcher coming back (seems like a legit prospect) along with Aaron Hill, for whom the Dbacks are paying.  Can Lucroy be far behind?

Lucroy won't be moved until the deadline this year, and given his extremely cheap control through next season, they will get a very, very good return.

[GGGG]

Lucroy won't be moved until the deadline this year, and given his extremely cheap control through next season, they will get a very, very good return.

I didn't realize that he was going to be turning 30 this June.  As good of a guy as he has been here, it is probably time to wish him well.

[🏀]

Lucroy won't be moved until the deadline this year, and given his extremely cheap control through next season, they will get a very, very good return.

2015 Lucroy or 2014 Lucroy? The haul will be dependent on his performance, and given his recent remarks he seems prepped to leave Milwaukee.

[buckchuckler]

On the Brewers end of the haul, Anderson is the jewel of the trade. The 28-year-old is a reliable changeup specialist. In 267 career innings, he has a 4.18 ERA (4.17 FIP) with 7.28 K/9 and 2.70 BB/9. His stuff performed slightly better in 2014 than 2015 as evidenced by superior strikeout and swinging strike rates. As a slightly homer prone fly ball pitcher, he's not a great fit for power happy Miller Park (the same was true at Chase Field). Anderson comes with five seasons of club control and will be a member of the rotation.

I remember in my western civ class there were supposed to be huge problems with plagiarism.  Though I think it was mostly due to not giving sources credit. 

[NavinRJohnson]

2015 Lucroy or 2014 Lucroy? The haul will be dependent on his performance, and given his recent remarks he seems prepped to leave Milwaukee.

2012, 2013, 2014, and second half of 2015 Lucroy. There is every reason to believe he will return to form this season. If you look at his numbers from last year, he had a dreadful start to the season, then immediate got hurt and missed a bunch of time, but his post all-star numbers were actually more in line with the prior couple years/his career.

[🏀]

2012, 2013, 2014, and second half of 2015 Lucroy. There is every reason to believe he will return to form this season. If you look at his numbers from last year, he had a dreadful start to the season, then immediate got hurt and missed a bunch of time, but his post all-star numbers were actually more in line with the prior couple years/his career.

We know the Brewers are shopping him, but the price seems high since there's not even smoke yet.

Hell of a catcher though and seems very personable. I wonder if the Brewers feel the need to hold on to him to keep butts in the seats.

Has there been many catcher trades at the deadline? Seems tough to trade and learn how to handle a pitching staff mid-season.

[brandx]

Brewers trade Segura to the Dbacks.  Chase Anderson and a A ball pitcher coming back (seems like a legit prospect) along with Aaron Hill, for whom the Dbacks are paying.  Can Lucroy be far behind?

They got a 19 year old SS - not an A ball pitcher. I think he is the cornerstone of the deal.

Anderson is just a middle of the rotation guy. Hill is a probably just a 4-month guy - if he has any success at all this year, he will go at the trade deadline.

[NavinRJohnson]

We know the Brewers are shopping him, but the price seems high since there's not even smoke yet.

Hell of a catcher though and seems very personable. I wonder if the Brewers feel the need to hold on to him to keep butts in the seats.

Has there been many catcher trades at the deadline? Seems tough to trade and learn how to handle a pitching staff mid-season.

Good question. Plays at 1B quite a bit as well. Not as valuable there, but probably increases his market overall.

[brandx]

Good question. Plays at 1B quite a bit as well. Not as valuable there, but probably increases his market overall.

I don't see how it would increase his value. He is basically the same hitter as James Loney (and worse defensively) - maybe the worst starting 1B in baseball. His value is strictly as a catcher.

[NavinRJohnson]

Didn't say it increased his value. Said it increased his market - as in number of teams that may have interest (I suppose that consequently increases his value, but that wasn't my point). Of course his value is as a catcher, but the ability to play both spots could make him attractive to a number of teams.

[buckchuckler]

There is a great chart on MLBtraderumors.com that highlights offseason free agent spending.  It is a little crazy that the Yankees are last, and have spent exactly 0.00 dollars.  Wow.  George wouldn't be happy. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

There is a great chart on MLBtraderumors.com that highlights offseason free agent spending.  It is a little crazy that the Yankees are last, and have spent exactly 0.00 dollars.  Wow.  George wouldn't be happy.

It won't last for long as some of their onerous contracts come off the books over the next couple of years.  They'll give Harper over $400 million if he makes it to free agency, assuming good health. 

[buckchuckler]

It won't last for long as some of their onerous contracts come off the books over the next couple of years.  They'll give Harper over $400 million if he makes it to free agency, assuming good health.

His deal will be astronomical. 

[🏀]

His deal will be astronomical. 

Early prediction: 12yr/$486m

[brandx]

Early prediction: 12yr/$486m

And then, at the next collective bargaining session, owners will cry poverty again.

[buckchuckler]

 

[mu-rara]

We know the Brewers are shopping him, but the price seems high since there's not even smoke yet.

Hell of a catcher though and seems very personable. I wonder if the Brewers feel the need to hold on to him to keep butts in the seats.

Has there been many catcher trades at the deadline? Seems tough to trade and learn how to handle a pitching staff mid-season.

My guess is they are trying to avoid the perception of a fire sale.  Lucroy didn't help out by opening his mouth.  Should have voiced his opinion to management and not the press.

On the other hand, I think the Brewers SP is under rated.   With a vet like Lucroy to handle them, the Brewers could be not dismal.  (I am not predicting them as a playoff team by any stretch.  Just MAYBE not 52-110.

[brandx]

My guess is they are trying to avoid the perception of a fire sale.  Lucroy didn't help out by opening his mouth.  Should have voiced his opinion to management and not the press.

On the other hand, I think the Brewers SP is under rated.   With a vet like Lucroy to handle them, the Brewers could be not dismal.  (I am not predicting them as a playoff team by any stretch.  Just MAYBE not 52-110.

On the one hand, I agree. They could win 70 games with Atlanta, Philly, Cincinnati, SD, and Colorado all tanking or just being awful, but they are about the future.

Right now they have 5 prospects among the Top 100 - which hasn't happened as long as I can remember. If they can get a couple top prospects, I'd trade Lucroy in a second.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I think the only problem is that Fowler is that he is a pretty average player to lose the number 28 pick.  He does seem like a pretty good fit though, as does Desmond (but with the same downside).  It is interesting how the pick has killed the market for some players but not at all for others.  At this point I bet Kendrick wishes he had taken it.

If I were the White Sox, losing the 28th pick would not be much of a concern considering their #10 pick is protected.  Fowler's no superstar but he should be worth 2-3 WAR for the next couple of years and those incremental wins should be of huge value to the White Sox right now if they think they have a legit shot at a wild card or the division. 

I assume they'll add one more bat because it really would make very little sense if that didn't after acquiring Frazier and Lawrie.

Go Cubs.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

It's funny because the white sox try to get these massive hitters every year but if you look at the team who won the world series the middle of their lineup consisted of Jermaine Dye, Konerko and Carl Everett, who mind you aren't bad hitters but those guys could hit for contact too.

It may also help that their entire team that year had career years from their position players to their pitching staff. John Garland anyone?

[brandx]

If I were the White Sox, losing the 28th pick would not be much of a concern considering their #10 pick is protected.  Fowler's no superstar but he should be worth 2-3 WAR for the next couple of years and those incremental wins should be of huge value to the White Sox right now if they think they have a legit shot at a wild card or the division. 

I disagree with the bolded part. Draft picks are getting to be much more valuable than they used to be, Especially with the earlier decline of players in their 30's as compared to the steroid era. Most teams are now valuing younger talent rather than older players.

Here is an excellent article about draft-pick compensation and the earlier decline of older players. The league-wide WAR for players 30+ is now just a little over half of what it was in 1998.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-other-big-change-in-mlbs-post-ped-era/

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I disagree with the bolded part. Draft picks are getting to be much more valuable than they used to be, Especially with the earlier decline of players in their 30's as compared to the steroid era. Most teams are now valuing younger talent rather than older players.

Here is an excellent article about draft-pick compensation and the earlier decline of older players. The league-wide WAR for players 30+ is now just a little over half of what it was in 1998.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-other-big-change-in-mlbs-post-ped-era/

I agree with you completely on principle but the chances of the 28th pick becoming a productive major leaguer are slim. If it's between that and adding a player who is worth 2-3 wins to a team that wants to contend for a playoff spot it's a no-brainer, IMO. If we were talking about the 10th pick it would be a different story. And I'm no Sox fan.

[brandx]

I agree with you completely on principle but the chances of the 28th pick becoming a productive major leaguer are slim. If it's between that and adding a player who is worth 2-3 wins to a team that wants to contend for a playoff spot it's a no-brainer, IMO. If we were talking about the 10th pick it would be a different story. And I'm no Sox fan.

I agree with this. It is all about what player they would get back. My original comment was more general rather than specific to this case.

Not sure that Fowler would be enough to make a move.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I agree with this. It is all about what player they would get back. My original comment was more general rather than specific to this case.

Not sure that Fowler would be enough to make a move.

We're on the same page from a general perspective.  And I get not loving Fowler as well. As a Cubs fan, I am a bit biased as he was a huge catalyst during the 2nd half of last season. 

I found this article about the WAR of #28 picks over the years.  Clearly there are exceptions but if a team can sign a solid player that could push them into the playoffs I don't see how you don't give up that pick.  If Fowler or an Ian Desmond is signed for a three-year deal and puts up 6-7 WAR (hypothetically over a 3-year deal) it's an easy call when you look at the history of that pick over entire careers.   

Not sure if you are a Sox fan but they need another bat and the ones that are out there are going to cost the 28th pick.  If the White Sox aren't going to rebuild, they need to sign one of those guys and give up that pick. 

http://dodgersway.com/2014/10/23/history-28th-overall-pick/