Luke Fischer

[The Sultan]

There are games where we have shot extremely well from the line and lost and there are games that we have shot very bad from the line and won. However, a team that shoots 73% from the line vs. a team that shoots 67% has a better chance of winning. The overall point is that making free throws is very important in a close game and to argue otherwise does not make sense.

The initial argument was how much impact team FT% has on the success of a team when it comes to wins and losses.  And as it turns out, increasing FT% by 10 percentage points statistically doesn't have much of an impact.

But your argument seems to be "increasing FT% is better than not increasing FT%."  And that is of course very obvious.  But that's not what was originally argued.  And not as easy as it sounds.

[WarriorInNYC]

The other thing I looked at as long as I was looking at the statistics to back up my impression that last year's team improved at a slower rate compared to the other Big East teams was the net point differential. I realize that Carlino's concussion should of had an effect on these numbers. I divided the season in half by taking the score differential the first time we played a team and then the second time we played the same team. The first nine our total differential was a -39 points and the second time our total differential was a -83 points. Basically we were 44 pints worse the second time around. However, if you remove DePaul and Seton Hall from these figures, because those two teams simply tanked in the second half the differentials go from a -26 to -96. This trend I am expecting to change this year with the young talent we have.

I'm really not sure this should be looked into too much.  One thing you'd have to factor in is home/away games.  The second item, this was Wojo's first year and Luke came on just before the conference season.  I would expect most teams would be able to adjust more to us as the season progressed as they have tape on Wojo's offense/defense as well as the new center.  As opposed to scouting from our end, the tape wouldn't have changed much from previous years

[WarriorInNYC]

There are games where we have shot extremely well from the line and lost and there are games that we have shot very bad from the line and won. However, a team that shoots 73% from the line vs. a team that shoots 67% has a better chance of winning. The overall point is that making free throws is very important in a close game and to argue otherwise does not make sense.

Yes, a team that shoots 73% has a better chance at winning a game than a team that shoots 67%.  But by how much?

5 FTs - .3 points difference
10 FTs - .6 points difference
15 FTs - .9 points difference
20 FTs - 1.2 points difference
25 FTs - 1.5 points difference
30 FTs - 1.8 points difference

[Jay Bee]

Yes, a team that shoots 73% has a better chance at winning a game than a team that shoots 67%.  But by how much?

5 FTs - .3 points difference
10 FTs - .6 points difference
15 FTs - .9 points difference
20 FTs - 1.2 points difference
25 FTs - 1.5 points difference
30 FTs - 1.8 points difference

False. Missed FT's can be rebounded by the shooting team.

Some of the comments in this thread are so stupid I can barely keep the puke from flying. C'mon now Market

[WarriorInNYC]

False. Missed FT's can be rebounded by the shooting team.

Some of the comments in this thread are so stupid I can barely keep the puke from flying. C'mon now Market

Ok, so then using your previous .15 OR% and a 1.2 ppp after a missed FT you previously gave, then the point differential is as such:

5 FTs - .246 points difference
10 FTs - .492 points difference
15 FTs - .738 points difference
20 FTs - .984 points difference
25 FTs - 1.23 points difference
30 FTs - 1.476 points difference

Hope this helps keep the puke in.

[bilsu]

I'm really not sure this should be looked into too much.  One thing you'd have to factor in is home/away games.  The second item, this was Wojo's first year and Luke came on just before the conference season.  I would expect most teams would be able to adjust more to us as the season progressed as they have tape on Wojo's offense/defense as well as the new center.  As opposed to scouting from our end, the tape wouldn't have changed much from previous years

I think you are saying the other teams were more successful adjusting than MU was. Therefore they improved more than MU. As far as home and away it balances out, since we played each team home and away. I see two things that were not coaching related that could account for the worse numbers the second time around. Carlino's concussion and I think as the season wore on Fisher's shoulder became more of an issue. Yes, teams had time to adjust to him, but I think it was more related to his shoulder getting worse.

[4everwarriors]

But how many free throws did the opposing team miss in those games?  It goes both ways.

Coach Tom Crean had the team work diligently on opposing team free throw defense, hey?

[bilsu]

False. Missed FT's can be rebounded by the shooting team.

Some of the comments in this thread are so stupid I can barely keep the puke from flying. C'mon now Market

I think we should just track this season and see how many games are decided by free throws one way or another.

[The Sultan]

I think we should just track this season and see how many games are decided by free throws one way or another.

How would you determine this?

[Jay Bee]

I think we should just track this season and see how many games are decided by free throws one way or another.

This is just more buffoonery. What is your methodology to determine that a game has been decided by free throws?

And, if applicable based on your methodology, why wait to track the upcoming season when there is plenty of past data to analyze?

[bilsu]

There have been plenty of games throughout the years that free throws become very important in the last minute.

[Jay Bee]

There have been plenty of games throughout the years that free throws become very important in the last minute.

Let's stay on the topic of team FT%

[ChicosBailBonds]

False. Missed FT's can be rebounded by the shooting team.

Some of the comments in this thread are so stupid I can barely keep the puke from flying. C'mon now Market

SOME missed FT's can be rebounded by the shooting team. 

[The Sultan]

There have been plenty of games throughout the years that free throws become very important in the last minute.

But if one team misses last minute FTs, blows a lead, and loses a game, that doesn't mean that game was "decided by free throws."  What if that team blew an easy lay-up at the three minute mark?  Or didn't grab a key rebound?  What if they were 14/15 from the line until the last minute?

Games are won and lost due to a variety of factors over the course of 40 minutes. You can't isolate the last minute and say what happened then was the most important part of the game.

[ChicosBailBonds]

But if one team misses last minute FTs, blows a lead, and loses a game, that doesn't mean that game was "decided by free throws."  What if that team blew an easy lay-up at the three minute mark?  Or didn't grab a key rebound?  What if they were 14/15 from the line until the last minute?

Games are won and lost due to a variety of factors over the course of 40 minutes. You can't isolate the last minute and say what happened then was the most important part of the game.

Correct...every play counts.  Of course, that also means every miss FT, every missed FG, rebound, etc.  All little pieces of the overall outcome.  And each action of success or failure leads to another reaction....for example if we make two FT's instead of missing the front end of a 1 and 1, that may cause the other team to react differently (take a 3, instead of a 2).  So we agree, it is way too complex to say just one area decides the ultimate outcome of the game.

However, I think most people here would agree that shooting a better FT%, assuming the same average number of FTA, NORMALLY is a good thing and will help your chances of winning.  Nothing set in stone, of course just because you shoot a higher FT% doesn't mean the FG% is the same, etc, etc.   My assumption is most people that are claiming a FT% improvement will help a team win are doing so with the concept that nothing else changes.  That's a bit of a reach because other things do change, but that's what they are saying IMO.

[g0lden3agle]

SOME missed FT's can be rebounded by the shooting team.

ALL missed FT's can be rebounded by the shooting team.  Statistically they all won't be, but they all could be.

[Lennys Tap]

SOME missed FT's can be rebounded by the shooting team.

No. ALL missed FT's can be rebounded by the shooting team. SOME usually are. (Sorry, g0lden beat me to it).

[Spotcheck Billy]

Poor Luke Fischer, his thread derailed for this FT bullsh!t.

[ChicosBailBonds]

ALL missed FT's can be rebounded by the shooting team.  Statistically they all won't be, but they all could be.

If a player is shooting two free throws and the first one is missed, nothing happens.  Only the second free throw miss can be rebounded.

[Jay Bee]

If a player is shooting two free throws and the first one is missed, nothing happens.  Only the second free throw miss can be rebounded.

You're all wrong. "Nothing happens" isn't true - in fact, a rebound is credited (to the shooting team).

Dead-ball rebound.

Please see A.R. 2. of the Statistucians' Manual.

[bilsu]

But if one team misses last minute FTs, blows a lead, and loses a game, that doesn't mean that game was "decided by free throws."  What if that team blew an easy lay-up at the three minute mark?  Or didn't grab a key rebound?  What if they were 14/15 from the line until the last minute?

Games are won and lost due to a variety of factors over the course of 40 minutes. You can't isolate the last minute and say what happened then was the most important part of the game.

Here is an example what you are referring to. I was at this game in 1969 at the old UW Fieldhouse. MU is down one with little time remaining and Ric Cobb a 50% free throw shooter is fouled. Cobb makes the first and misses the second and the game goes into overtime. He misses both we lose in regulation and if he makes both we win in regulation. We lost in overtime when McGuire decides it is better for his senior star George Thompson to bring up the ball instead of his sophomore point guard Dean Meminger. Although Meminger was probably the best ball handler ever to attend MU, McGuire thought it was too much pressure for a sophomore. Thompson got the ball stolen and Rick Mount then hit the jump shot to win the game to go to final four. Did we lose because Cobb missed a free throw or because Mount hit the game winner. My answer is we lost because McGuire made a stupid decision at a crucial time. Of course he would not of made that decision, if Cobb made both free throws.

[bilsu]

Another example it was Raymonds' first loss as head coach. MU is down 1 at Louisville and Butch Lee is fouled with virtually no time to go. Lee, a good free throw shooter, misses both free throws and we lose. Sure there were probably dozens of other plays during the game that could of changed that close loss to a win, but you will never be able to convince me that missed free throws did not cost us that game.

Or how about our game against Georgetown when James fouls a Georgetown player on a potential tying three point shot. Player makes all three free throws to send game into overtime where we lose.

How about the loss to Louisville that directly resulted by a dead ball foul by Amoroso when we were shooting free throws.

I could go on and on. I been going to games before most of you were born and have had my heart broken many times by free throws either missed by us or made by the other team.

[DoggyDaddy]

Rick Mount was from Purdue but that game was played in Wisconsin. Purdue University is in Indiana. Luke Fischer played at Indiana University. Then he transferred to Marquette University which is in Wisconsin. Ric Cobb was a center and an outstanding rebounder for MU but he was not much of shooter. Luke Fischer is a very good rebounder and a much better shooter.
We are now back on track and off the damn FT line in this thread, I hope.       

[The Sultan]

Here is an example what you are referring to. I was at this game in 1969 at the old UW Fieldhouse. MU is down one with little time remaining and Ric Cobb a 50% free throw shooter is fouled. Cobb makes the first and misses the second and the game goes into overtime. He misses both we lose in regulation and if he makes both we win in regulation. We lost in overtime when McGuire decides it is better for his senior star George Thompson to bring up the ball instead of his sophomore point guard Dean Meminger. Although Meminger was probably the best ball handler ever to attend MU, McGuire thought it was too much pressure for a sophomore. Thompson got the ball stolen and Rick Mount then hit the jump shot to win the game to go to final four. Did we lose because Cobb missed a free throw or because Mount hit the game winner. My answer is we lost because McGuire made a stupid decision at a crucial time. Of course he would not of made that decision, if Cobb made both free throws.

But I can say that this games wasn't "decided by free throws."  It was decided by any number of factors that you mention.

Look, better FT shooting is better than not better FT shooting.  Everyone knows that.  But it simply isn't easy for a team to suddenly become better at FT.  That is why the stat remains unchanged by and large for the past few decades.

Good discussion though.  Thanks.

[Spotcheck Billy]

You're all wrong. "Nothing happens" isn't true - in fact, a rebound is credited (to the shooting team).

Dead-ball rebound.

Please see A.R. 2. of the Statistucians' Manual.

Is that anything like the Statisticians' Manual?