Luke Fischer

[Newsdreams]

Any predictions on Fischer stats for this year?

[THRILLHO]

Any predictions on Fischer stats for this year?

I think we will play faster this year so all his numbers will go up. Probably around the same minutes (30/game), but more shooting, similar efficiency, and more rebounds. He may also get a better assist rate as he has better pass out options. Just taking a guess -- 13.5 ppg, 6 rpg, 1.5 assists per game, and 0 police reports.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Any predictions on Fischer stats for this year?

13 and 6

Needs to get his FT% up above the 59% from last year. 

[MuMark]

I think the shoulder injury hampered his free throw shooting last year. Should improve now that he is healthy.

[Newsdreams]

I think we will play faster this year so all his numbers will go up. Probably around the same minutes (30/game), but more shooting, similar efficiency, and more rebounds. He may also get a better assist rate as he has better pass out options. Just taking a guess -- 13.5 ppg, 6 rpg, 1.5 assists per game, and 0 police reports.

I see what you did there 

[bilsu]

We will be a bad rebounding team, if he averages on 6 rebounds a game. 14pts 9 rbs

[ChicosBailBonds]

I think we will play faster this year so all his numbers will go up. Probably around the same minutes (30/game), but more shooting, similar efficiency, and more rebounds. He may also get a better assist rate as he has better pass out options. Just taking a guess -- 13.5 ppg, 6 rpg, 1.5 assists per game, and 0 police reports.

With Buzz gone, there is a pretty good chance that happens.

[Jay Bee]

FT% is nearly irrelevant

[THRILLHO]

We will be a bad rebounding them, if he averages on 6 rebounds a game. 14pts 9 rbs

I think our team rebounding will be a lot better this year just because we'll be playing with more height at every position. I'm just not sure how realistic it is to expect a player to increase rebounds so dramatically without increased minutes. My intuition is that it's kind of a hard thing to teach and not skill-dependent like shooting - guys aren't in the gym all summer rebounding like they might be putting up shots. (Maybe I'm wrong about that.) I'll give him some credit for being healthy but not sure it's reasonable to expect him to be nearly twice as good.

[Jay Bee]

Real question: What do folks think Luke's rebounding percentages can be this year?

With the broken wing a year ago, he was at 6.8% and 12.8%. In limited time at I4, he was 11.1% and 12.6%.

I'd *like* to see OR% at 9%+ and DR% approaching 17%+... a DR% of less than 15% would not be pleasing.

[brewcity77]

Real question: What do folks think Luke's rebounding percentages can be this year?

With the broken wing a year ago, he was at 6.8% and 12.8%. In limited time at I4, he was 11.1% and 12.6%.

I'd *like* to see OR% at 9%+ and DR% approaching 17%+... a DR% of less than 15% would not be pleasing.

I think we need him to be at least as good on the boards as Teve was. I'd like to see 10+% in the offensive glass and 18+% on defensive. If he's truly the best center in the Big East, no reason he shouldn't be in the top 200-300 in both categories in the country.

[Loose Cannon]

FT% is nearly irrelevant

  Mostly agree,  except for the last THree minutes.

[Jay Bee]

  Mostly agree,  except for the last THree minutes.

In certain moments, anything can be important. I'm speaking on FT% as a metric to determine whether your team is good or not, or has a major problem..

Down 2 with 4 seconds left and you miss a shot, offensive rebounding becomes enormously huge.

Down 3 shooting from 3/4 down the court at the buzzer, buzzer beating shooting is huge.

FT% though.. in general,.. faaaar down the list.

[ChicosBailBonds]

FT% doesn't really determine if a team is good or not.  I don't think anyone claimed that to be the case.  The importance of it, however, is obvious.  These are free points.  Fischer shot only 58% last year.  Get that to 70% and it's worth (rounding) an extra point per game for him and the team.

[Jay Bee]

FT% doesn't really determine if a team is good or not.  I don't think anyone claimed that to be the case.  The importance of it, however, is obvious.  These are free points.  Fischer shot only 58% last year.  Get that to 70% and it's worth (rounding) an extra point per game for him and the team.

70% would not be worth an extra point per game rounding to the nearest point.

Nonetheless, "these are free points" is a bizarre thing to say. If they were free points, they would be granted - end of story.

They're not free points.

To suggest so is wrong and outlandish.

[MuMark]

If he shoots the same number of free throws as he did last year and shoots 70% instead of 58% it would mean 10 more points in a season.

[brandx]

If he shoots the same number of free throws as he did last year and shoots 70% instead of 58% it would mean 10 more points in a season.

That's why JB is right.

Getting to the line often is important for several reason and situational FT shooting is important (last two minutes of the game).

Overall, though, it's way down on the list.

[naginiF]

That's why JB is right.

Getting to the line often is important for several reason and situational FT shooting is important (last two minutes of the game).

Overall, though, it's way down on the list.

I've always looked at overall FT% as a leading indicator of a teams focus, conditioning, and, for lack of a better descriptor, discipline.  Teams that can't hit free throws are either super talented and don't need that focus or teams i wouldn't trust in clutch situations.  Does it singularly effect W's and L's?  As was pointed out, no.  As a non 'top 10' program would I feel more confident with a 10 pt higher FT% going into March?  Absolutely - preparation and execution are the only things that can overcome superior talent. 

Clearly not the only/primary indicator.  But isn't it a pretty good leading indicator?

[Jay Bee]

I've always looked at overall FT% as a leading indicator of a teams focus, conditioning, and, for lack of a better descriptor, discipline.  Teams that can't hit free throws are either super talented and don't need that focus or teams i wouldn't trust in clutch situations.  Does it singularly effect W's and L's?  As was pointed out, no.  As a non 'top 10' program would I feel more confident with a 10 pt higher FT% going into March?  Absolutely - preparation and execution are the only things that can overcome superior talent. 

Clearly not the only/primary indicator.  But isn't it a pretty good leading indicator?

No. It's not a good indicator and your thoughts are complete off base and unsupported by facts.

Ask Izzo. #328 in the nation. Final Four.

Ask Steve Fischer.

[naginiF]

No. It's not a good indicator and your thoughts are complete off base and unsupported by facts.

Ask Izzo. #328 in the nation. Final Four.

Ask Steve Fischer.

totally agree on my thoughts being unsupported by facts, I'm far from a CBB statistician or insider. 

Other than looking at w's and l's what stats should i look at as indicators of a team that is over or under performing their potential?  It's a complicated answer, but I'm not a former high school player/coach and I want to make my positions defendable (that sounds snarky but it's really not).

[ChicosBailBonds]

70% would not be worth an extra point per game rounding to the nearest point.

Nonetheless, "these are free points" is a bizarre thing to say. If they were free points, they would be granted - end of story.

They're not free points.

To suggest so is wrong and outlandish.

My fault, thanks for the correction.  I ran it at 70% and then at the FT% he shot at IU, which was 78%.  It was the 78% then we get to an extra point per game.  At 70% it's roughly a half point.

Would you be more acceptable to Free Points Opportunity?  I was raised by coaches that called them free points...there to be taken if you master an easy shot.  That's my bias, but I've heard plenty of coaches call them "free points".  I wouldn't call it wrong, or outlandish.

[Lennys Tap]

My fault, thanks for the correction.  I ran it at 70% and then at the FT% he shot at IU, which was 78%.  It was the 78% then we get to an extra point per game.  At 70% it's roughly a half point.

Would you be more acceptable to Free Points Opportunity?  I was raised by coaches that called them free points...there to be taken if you master an easy shot.  That's my bias, but I've heard plenty of coaches call them "free points".  I wouldn't call it wrong, or outlandish.

1. Yet another error at simple math. Not surprising.

2. Provably wrong, but since you (and all those basketball coaches who raised you) say it anyway that makes it something you wouldn't call wrong. What an absolutely perfect example of outlandish!

[The Sultan]

They aren't "free points" and I have never heard a coach say that.  They are "free throws" or more accurately "free shots."

The math is interesting though.  I think they get over magnified because we always remember them being missed in "clutch" situations.  Like this headline.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/08/AR2008040800211.html

[MuMark]

I somehow forgot that Luke missed 9 games last year so if he had played a full season and shot 70% instead of 58.....he would have scored 15 more points.

I think we would all agree it is better to have good free throw shooters then bad 1s.

No matter what else you do if you make a few more free throws it can make the difference in close games.

Other factors are obviously more important but since few teams are good at everything I'll take good free throw shooting if I can get it.....especially late in a close game.

[CTWarrior]

I would expect us to play at a more rapid pace this year as we have more horses.  Couple that with Luke being healthy there is a good chance he will get to the line more often, so that the importance of FT% will ramp out. 

I get JB's point that even if you factor in all of that the difference between 70% and 58% isn't going to be more than a point a game and a lot of things are more likely to improve our W/L % than that.  I also that the biggest thing Luke can do to help us win is to up that defensive rebounding percentage.  Even from a psychological/coaching standpoint, giving up second chance points are more painful than leaving points at the FT line, IMO.