Ellenson: One and Done or not?

[WarriorFan]

If immediate money is his biggest motivator -- and I don't blame him if it is -- or if testing himself at the highest level of basketball sooner than later is his biggest motivator (or some combination thereof), Henry goes.

If he is more motivated by other things (college life, the MU experience, playing with Wally, improving as a player before he goes to the NBA, making an NCAA tourney run), Henry stays.

It's pretty simple, yet we try to make it so complicated here.

This

... but even if he's drafted in the top 10, he's not going to see much time unless he goes to D league.  So it would be money (yes), competition (no) and I'll venture that the NCAA life is a lot more fun than the D league life even if you're on first round guaranteed money.

[bilsu]

Bentil's stock has probably suffered from playing in the shadow of Kris Dunn, however his game has probably improved as a result of playing alongside Kris Dunn. He might get drafted this year if he chooses to go but it would be interesting to watch him next year as the number 1 focus of the opponents defensive gameplan.

Kris Dunn has resulted in Bentil being scouted numerous times. Therefore, I think the NBA has a pretty good handle on him. They look at whether you are athletic enough, big enough, coachable, skilled and not necessarily how many points you are averaging.

[GGGG]

This

... but even if he's drafted in the top 10, he's not going to see much time unless he goes to D league.  So it would be money (yes), competition (no) and I'll venture that the NCAA life is a lot more fun than the D league life even if you're on first round guaranteed money.

Why do people think that Henry is going to lack for quality playing time in the NBA?  He's not a tweener.  He's got good size, a very nice shot that will only increase in range when he gets more coaching, and he's got the frame to add muscle.  Every defense right now is throwing double teams at him whenever he touches the ball.  That's not going to happen in the NBA.

I think we are trying a little too hard to find flaws and be critical of the guy. 

[WarriorFan]

Why do people think that Henry is going to lack for quality playing time in the NBA?  He's not a tweener.  He's got good size, a very nice shot that will only increase in range when he gets more coaching, and he's got the frame to add muscle.  Every defense right now is throwing double teams at him whenever he touches the ball.  That's not going to happen in the NBA.

I think we are trying a little too hard to find flaws and be critical of the guy.

I do respect your point and can't wait personally for another MU alum to achieve success in the NBA.  Two simple words counter your point:  David Lee.

[GGGG]

I do respect your point and can't wait personally for another MU alum to achieve success in the NBA.  Two simple words counter your point:  David Lee.

I guess I don't understand the reference.  David Lee has been in the league 10+ seasons and is a two time All Star.  I think if Henry follows in those footsteps, that would be considered a very successful career.

He got a slow start to his career, but still got 15+ minutes off the bench as a rookie. 

[MU82]

I guess I don't understand the reference.  David Lee has been in the league 10+ seasons and is a two time All Star.  I think if Henry follows in those footsteps, that would be considered a very successful career.

He got a slow start to his career, but still got 15+ minutes off the bench as a rookie.

Indeed, there are many better examples than David Lee if one wants to minimize Ellenson's chances. How about, say, Darius Miles? No. 3 overall pick in 2000 straight out of high school, considered a bust within 4 years; but even he hung around on NBA rosters for 8 seasons, made a crap-load of money and will get a huge pension. Or maybe Adam Morrison, No. 3 overall pick in 2006 but didn't make it past his rookie contract.

David Lee? Thousands upon thousands of today's college players would LOVE to have Lee's career and earnings.

As for Henry having to go to the D-League ...

Not many lottery picks are dispatched to D-League as rookies, though it does happen. Noah Vonleh, No. 9 pick by Hornets in 2014, was hurt in training camp, couldn't make the active roster after healing and spent most of the 2014-15 season in the D-League. He was traded to Portland in the offseason and he now starts for the Blazers, though he has modest stats and is averaging only about 16 mpg. He actually might be a pretty good "worst-case scenario" example of what could happen to Henry. More likely, Henry will be with his NBA team all season, as is the norm.

Of course, a lot will depend on the team Henry goes to. Is it stocked with similar players? Is it a legit playoff contender that can't afford to teach Henry on the fly and needs the roster spot for, say, a guard? Also, it will depend on Henry staying healthy and avoiding a situation such as Vonleh's.

[GGGG]

Excellent point.  Vonleh is an excellent example about a worst case scenario.  Similar size and skill set to Henry.  And Vonleh will be in the league for a long time.  It may take him awhile to hit his stride, but he's getting paid along the way.

[Goose]

D League? What are you watching?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

D League? What are you watching?

I think a lot of people discount how much Henry is being asked to do. He has to play beyond himself to make up for the roster around him. As a result, he is more inefficient than he would be on a tournament team.

[nyg]

I guess I don't understand the reference.  David Lee has been in the league 10+ seasons and is a two time All Star.  I think if Henry follows in those footsteps, that would be considered a very successful career.

He got a slow start to his career, but still got 15+ minutes off the bench as a rookie.

David Lee will make 86 million in his career after his contract is up.  86 million.  His salary alone for this year is 15.4 million. 

[BM1090]

D League? What are you watching?

We have a tendency here to undervalue our best players and overvalue our worst ones, if you haven't noticed.

D-Wade being the big exception, because how the hell could you undervalue that guy?

[Goose]

This is my last post on HE. Anyone that does not understand how impressive his numbers are this season are complete idiots, know nothing about basketball or delusional. He is far from perfect player but I doubt that I will ever see freshman at MU put up those type numbers ever again. In addition, I think he does it with about 90% effort out there.

All I can say is that I am very happy HE made the decision to attend MU and play ball. Enjoyed my limited time talking with him and his family at a couple of events and hopes he proves "D" League faction of scoop a thing or two about basketball. Seriously guys, it is a very easy game to understand. I am living proof of that.

[Windyplayer]

We have a tendency here to undervalue our best players and overvalue our worst ones, if you haven't noticed.

D-Wade being the big exception, because how the hell could you undervalue that guy?

Not disputing this, but examples?

EDIT: Pat on back for "founding" post.

[WarriorFan]

I guess I don't understand the reference.  David Lee has been in the league 10+ seasons and is a two time All Star.  I think if Henry follows in those footsteps, that would be considered a very successful career.

He got a slow start to his career, but still got 15+ minutes off the bench as a rookie.

Sultan:  You're right... I wan't clear enough.  David Lee has been successful, but right now he's a massively gifted offensive player who can't play D and doesn't rebound well enough for his position, so he can't get off the bench.  The NBA has changed over the last few years, and the value of Defense has increased - especially for young players and role players - while advanced stats are used more and more to determine a player's contribution and worth.  My comparison was to David Lee right now, in the NBA of right now.  My point is that HE needs to improve his defense or he won't get off the bench, regardless of how gifted he is offensively.  He could gain time - as I've said in previous posts - based on his rebounding talent alone, if his rebounding skills translate to the NBA level. 

I do hope he is successful if he jumps, and agree that from a financial perspective it would be hard to resist.

[AZMarqfan]

It depends on what drives Henry.  If he goes pro, he's a 10 minute per game player in 2016 if he goes pro.  His defense is a liability, as is his ball-handling and 3-point shooting.  Heck, he doesn't finish at the rim all that well.  But a team drafting him isn't looking for HE in 2016-17, they're looking for the long-haul. 

If he comes back for a year, he could jump in 2017-18 as an immediate 20-25 minute per game contributor. 

Remember, Wade was at MU for 3 years, Butler and Crowder left after senior year.  There's something to be said for the maturation that can occur in college

[naginiF]

David Lee will make 86 million in his career after his contract is up.  86 million.  His salary alone for this year is 15.4 million.

You have to be joking!  Seriously, I know his solo career wasn't awesome but Diamond Dave is worth $60M and I'll fight any man that says VanHalen was 1/10th as good with Sammy Hagar.


*also, not directed specifically at you, this thread is beyond absurd. 

[CubillanSandwich]

Just freaking enjoy him while we can. He is gone.  Please focus on a DePaul or Dayton thread instead. 

[MU82]

It depends on what drives Henry.  If he goes pro, he's a 10 minute per game player in 2016 if he goes pro.  His defense is a liability, as is his ball-handling and 3-point shooting.  Heck, he doesn't finish at the rim all that well.  But a team drafting him isn't looking for HE in 2016-17, they're looking for the long-haul. 

If he comes back for a year, he could jump in 2017-18 as an immediate 20-25 minute per game contributor. 

Obviously, this is opinion, and you don't try to suggest it's anything but.

Had Joakim Noah left Florida after his sophomore year, there was much talk that he would have been the No. 1 pick. Certainly top-5. Instead he stayed to help Fla win another title but he didn't have quite as good a year individually. He dropped to No. 9 overall and he had trouble finding a role with the Bulls for two full years.

So there is no guarantee that staying will make him a better player or more attractive to the pros. Nor is there any guarantee that him leaving will help or hurt him in the pros.

The only guarantees are 1, Hank will get very rich very quickly whenever he turns pro; 2, We would be a much better team with him next year.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I guess I don't understand the reference.  David Lee has been in the league 10+ seasons and is a two time All Star.  I think if Henry follows in those footsteps, that would be considered a very successful career.

He got a slow start to his career, but still got 15+ minutes off the bench as a rookie.

I think Henry will do pretty good in the pros, but if he leaves this year I suspect his first year will be pretty painful to watch unless he suddenly learns to hit the 3 consistently.  Hope I'm wrong, but yes he could have a very solid career.

[wadesworld]

I think Henry will do pretty good in the pros, but if he leaves this year I suspect his first year will be pretty painful to watch unless he suddenly learns to hit the 3 consistently.  Hope I'm wrong, but yes he could have a very solid career.

Can't find the bet right now but just to clarify, if he plays in less than 35 games and averages more than 5 points per game in those 35 the bet is just off or do you win the bet?

I'd put $100 to a charity of the winner's choosing on him averaging over 5 ppg while playing over 35 games, but if he's over 5 ppg but under 35 GP it's a push, while under 5 ppg whether he plays 35+ games or less I'd lose the bet.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Can't find the bet right now but just to clarify, if he plays in less than 35 games and averages more than 5 points per game in those 35 the bet is just off or do you win the bet?

I'd put $100 to a charity of the winner's choosing on him averaging over 5 ppg while playing over 35 games, but if he's over 5 ppg but under 35 GP it's a push, while under 5 ppg whether he plays 35+ games or less I'd lose the bet.

Bet is, he averages less than 5 points per game I win, but he has to play at least 35 games.  If he averages more than 5 points per game or less than 5 points per game, but less than 35 games played.  No one wins.  If he averages more than 5 points per game and more than 35 games, you win. 

[tompopsicle]

David Lee will make 86 million in his career after his contract is up.  86 million.  His salary alone for this year is 15.4 million.

While David Lee's number have been down the last two years, he averaged a near double-double for 8 consecutive years, including between 16 and 20 ppg for 6 of those years. His career averages are 14.7 ppg and 9.5 rpg. No bad at all.

[wadesworld]

Bet is, he averages less than 5 points per game I win, but he has to play at least 35 games.  If he averages more than 5 points per game or less than 5 points per game, but less than 35 games played.  No one wins.  If he averages more than 5 points per game and more than 35 games, you win.

Deal.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Why do people think that Henry is going to lack for quality playing time in the NBA?  He's not a tweener.  He's got good size, a very nice shot that will only increase in range when he gets more coaching, and he's got the frame to add muscle.  Every defense right now is throwing double teams at him whenever he touches the ball.  That's not going to happen in the NBA.

I think we are trying a little too hard to find flaws and be critical of the guy.

Because the thought of him guarding NBA 4s is nearly comical.

[brewcity77]

Bet is, he averages less than 5 points per game I win, but he has to play at least 35 games.  If he averages more than 5 points per game or less than 5 points per game, but less than 35 games played.  No one wins.  If he averages more than 5 points per game and more than 35 games, you win.

What if he averages 12.1 ppg in 34 games before getting injured? Any total of 410 or more points would project to 5.0 ppg in an 82-game season.