Poll: Duane Wilson Production 2015-16

[Loose Cannon]

The argument for Duane shooting at an increased percentage would be that he has to maintain what he provided last year. plus make up for some of Carlino's lost production.  Moderated by whatever increase comes from as a pleasant surprise from JjJ or Cohen or as a pleasant shock from Wally.

I guess I'm in the minority of feeling the incoming Freshmen (Excluding Henry) of helping much more than last years bench.  I'm really excited to see Sacar, Haanif, and Traci, and  Matt playing and contributing to this team, especially Sacar.

[Herman Cain]

I am looking for a very strong year from Duane. Another year experience and comfort with Wojos system will lead to good things. I see a lot of kick outs from the big guys to him for open looks. 

[keefe]

I see a lot of kick outs

I think Noskowiak specialized in kick outs

[WarriorFan]

I think probably 14 and 2 would be more reasonable.  He does need to focus on scoring, and probably won't be playing the point.  He's going to need to get a couple steals as well.

[MerrittsMustache]

15 and 4 seems about right for the season, especially if you consider that he'll probably have some big stat-padding games against cupcakes. Even though he won't necessarily be running the point, I'd like to think that at least 2-3 time per game Duane will be able to drive and dish/kick to someone for an easy two or an open 3. Assist-wise, that almost gets him there already. I feel more confident about him getting 4 assists than 15 points.

[Galway Eagle]

15 and 4 seems about right for the season, especially if you consider that he'll probably have some big stat-padding games against cupcakes. Even though he won't necessarily be running the point, I'd like to think that at least 2-3 time per game Duane will be able to drive and dish/kick to someone for an easy two or an open 3. Assist-wise, that almost gets him there already. I feel more confident about him getting 4 assists than 15 points.

He averaged 12ppg last year. It's be pretty bad of he can't increase that by 3 with carlino gone.

[MerrittsMustache]

He averaged 12ppg last year. It's be pretty bad of he can't increase that by 3 with carlino gone.

Not necessarily. The season after Novak, DJ's PPG decreased. Hayward's PPG went up by less than 2 points after DJ, Jerel and Wes were all gone. After Lazar, Butler's went up by 1 point. It's a different team every year. Cohen, Fischer and JJJ should all see their scoring numbers go up, plus there should be some decent contributions from the frosh.

[Galway Eagle]

Not necessarily. The season after Novak, DJ's PPG decreased. Hayward's PPG went up by less than 2 points after DJ, Jerel and Wes were all gone. After Lazar, Butler's went up by 1 point. It's a different team every year. Cohen, Fischer and JJJ should all see their scoring numbers go up, plus there should be some decent contributions from the frosh.

Huh touché good sir

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

You are assuming he's going to shoot the ball at the same percentage as he did the year prior.

Yes, I made my comment considering that statistically shooting percentage is controlled for.

BTW, when you do the math it's really amazing how little an improved shooting percentage increases ppg.  Let's take a look at what Duane Wilson did last year:

2pt FG:  2.3-5.3 per game (makes-attempts)    .434
3pt FG:  1.5-4.3 per game (makes-attempts)    .355
FT:       2.8-3.9 per game (makes-attempts)     .712

Now I'm going change his shooting percentages to .500 for 2 FG, .400 for 3 FG, and FT to .800 while keeping attempts the same.  (Overall FG shooting pct in this example is .455 for those that are curious.  Last year was .394)

2 pt FG  5.3 x .500= 2.65 makes; 2.65 x 2= 5.30 ppg
3 pt FG  4.3 x .400= 1.72 makes; 1.72 x 3= 5.16 ppg
FT         3.9 x .800= 3.12 makes; 3.12 x 1= 3.12 ppg

5.30+5.16+3.12= 13.58 ppg (rounded to 13.6 ppg)

So Duane Wilson improving his shooting percentages to 50% on 2 FG, 40% on 3 FG, and 80% on FT (numbers I bet every scooper would be thrilled to see) would add only 1.7 ppg to his scoring average from last year.  For Duane to average 15 ppg he will either need to become hyper-efficient or (drum roll please) shoot more! (Or shoot a higher ratio of 3's to 2's as Jaybee pointed out.)

Now an increase in minutes could lead to more overall shots if the same usage rate applies.  But Duane already averaged 28.1 mpg last year.  If his minutes increase to 32 mpg and he can shoot .500/.400/.800 his scoring average projects to 15.5 ppg at the usage rate he had last year. The extra 3.9 minutes accounts for as much scoring increase as does improved shooting pct.  (The increase in minutes alone, if shot attempts/minute and shooting pct remained the same would lead to a 13.55 ppg average.)

Keep in mind Duane does not shoot the ball less than last year in my above example.  He has to average the same number of shots per minute while increasing shooting percentages and minutes per game.  So I've mapped out how Duane can average 15.5 ppg without shooting more shots per minute.  It'd be a heck of an season if Duane can duplicate my hypothetical numbers.

But, assuming the same assist rate, his 2.1 apg in 28.1 mpg projects to only 2.4 apg in 32 mpg.  MU would need to play a faster tempo and/or shoot substantially better off of Duane's dishes and/or Duane has the ball in his hands a lot more so he has more opportunities for assists than last year.  How does Duane get to 4 apg?  If MU shoots 50% on shots where Duane could be credited with an assist, that is still an extra 3.2 shots Duane needs to create for teammates.  Now, controlling for shooting pct, tell me what happens to his ppg and apg if Duane shoots those 3.2 shots himself instead of passing?

[Goose]

He is going to shot a lot of shots and score 15+ for the season. I would not be surprised to see him at 17+ this upcoming season.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

He is going to shot a lot of shots and score 15+ for the season. I would not be surprised to see him at 17+ this upcoming season.

I think 14-16 ppg is about right.  He'll get more shots and be more efficient.  Only a slight increase in assists.  Around 2.5-3.0 apg.

[GGGG]

Yes, I made my comment considering that statistically shooting percentage is controlled for.

BTW, when you do the math it's really amazing how little an improved shooting percentage increases ppg.  Let's take a look at what Duane Wilson did last year:

2pt FG:  2.3-5.3 per game (makes-attempts)    .434
3pt FG:  1.5-4.3 per game (makes-attempts)    .355
FT:       2.8-3.9 per game (makes-attempts)     .712

Now I'm going change his shooting percentages to .500 for 2 FG, .400 for 3 FG, and FT to .800 while keeping attempts the same.  (Overall FG shooting pct in this example is .455 for those that are curious.  Last year was .394)

2 pt FG  5.3 x .500= 2.65 makes; 2.65 x 2= 5.30 ppg
3 pt FG  4.3 x .400= 1.72 makes; 1.72 x 3= 5.16 ppg
FT         3.9 x .800= 3.12 makes; 3.12 x 1= 3.12 ppg

5.30+5.16+3.12= 13.58 ppg (rounded to 13.6 ppg)

So Duane Wilson improving his shooting percentages to 50% on 2 FG, 40% on 3 FG, and 80% on FT (numbers I bet every scooper would be thrilled to see) would add only 1.7 ppg to his scoring average from last year.  For Duane to average 15 ppg he will either need to become hyper-efficient or (drum roll please) shoot more! (Or shoot a higher ratio of 3's to 2's as Jaybee pointed out.)

Now an increase in minutes could lead to more overall shots if the same usage rate applies.  But Duane already averaged 28.1 mpg last year.  If his minutes increase to 32 mpg and he can shoot .500/.400/.800 his scoring average projects to 15.5 ppg at the usage rate he had last year. The extra 3.9 minutes accounts for as much scoring increase as does improved shooting pct.  (The increase in minutes alone, if shot attempts/minute and shooting pct remained the same would lead to a 13.55 ppg average.)

Keep in mind Duane does not shoot the ball less than last year in my above example.  He has to average the same number of shots per minute while increasing shooting percentages and minutes per game.  So I've mapped out how Duane can average 15.5 ppg without shooting more shots per minute.  It'd be a heck of an season if Duane can duplicate my hypothetical numbers.

But, assuming the same assist rate, his 2.1 apg in 28.1 mpg projects to only 2.4 apg in 32 mpg.  MU would need to play a faster tempo and/or shoot substantially better off of Duane's dishes and/or Duane has the ball in his hands a lot more so he has more opportunities for assists than last year.  How does Duane get to 4 apg?  If MU shoots 50% on shots where Duane could be credited with an assist, that is still an extra 3.2 shots Duane needs to create for teammates.  Now, controlling for shooting pct, tell me what happens to his ppg and apg if Duane shoots those 3.2 shots himself instead of passing?

Thank you for this.  This is the best basketball related post I have read on here for awhile.

[brewcity77]

I think the biggest difference for Duane will be the number of shots he takes. Between Carlino, Anderson, Derrick, Teve, and Burton, Marquette is losing 5 guys that combined for 885 shots, more than half of the team's total shots (52.1% of 1699).

I'm sure Henry and Luke will get their shots, but my guess is Duane will lead the team in shots taken. Last year Carlino took 320 to Duane's 307, my guess is he will increase his shot total to more in line with what guys like DJO, Jae, Jimmy, and Lazar were taking (380-500 range). I don't think expecting Duane to increase his total shots by 25% is at all unreasonable.

If Duane kept the same average percentages as last year with a 25% increase in the number of shots taken, here's what he'd be looking at if we assume the same 32 games played:

90/211 2P attempts (180 points)
61/173 3P attempts (183 points)
111/156 FT attempts (111 points)

That would give him an average of 14.8 ppg. If we assume the improvements that Hauser's made above, he'd be looking at...

105/211 2P attempts (210 points)
69/173 3P attempts (207 points)
125/156 FT attempts (125 points)

That would give him an average of 16.9 ppg, or pretty close to the optimal 17 ppg listed in the poll. As the returning alpha dog, I think it is more likely that he increase his shots, especially without another gunner like Carlino.

I should probably take more time to break it down to a per game basis rather than simply the blanket 25% I used, but that is only taking about a third of Matt's shots and giving them to Duane, which I think is reasonable, especially as the lost production of Juan and Steve will likely be where the bulk of Henry's shots come from.

[Galway Eagle]

One thing we aren't accounting for is that there's also more possessions per game to make up for so i think its unlikely he doesn't add a few more assists and points than if the clock had been the same.

[PGsHeroes32]

I have a feeling he's going to attempt more FTs per game and make them at a higher  clip

[Spotcheck Billy]

One thing we aren't accounting for is that there's also more possessions per game to make up for so i think its unlikely he doesn't add a few more assists and points than if the clock had been the same.

plus I hope we play at a faster pace regardless of the shot clock adjustment, also hoping more steals resulting in fast breaks this season