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Author Topic: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix  (Read 50588 times)

mu03eng

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #175 on: February 04, 2015, 05:43:39 PM »
Just case I'm on a roll, here's the issue with the generation side.

There are two components to generation:  the amount you use(consumption) and the rate you use it(demand).  Think of filling a swimming pool with water.  How much water you need is the consumption but how fast you fill it is the demand.  If I want to fill 10 pools that is a fixed amount of consumption.  What can change is how fast I fill them up....all 10 in an hour versus 10 pools in 10 hours.  I have to have enough water on hand for the first scenario even though I might actually deal with the second scenario.

Same goes for electricity, the amount needed might be relatively fixed, even in the new scenario we are discussing, but when that energy is demanded will change dramatically so a utility would have to have enough generation to meet demand.  Some of this could be mitigated if you found a way to store energy efficiently so you could create energy when there is limited demand to be ready for when demand spikes.....but storage in that volumes is very dangerous and wildly inefficient.


I agree with everyone that all of these things can be overcome, and I'd love to be the person leading the charge.  The reality though is the investment currently being made vs what is needed isn't anywhere close to the 10 year time line.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

jesmu84

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #176 on: February 04, 2015, 05:51:00 PM »
One issue that will require significant investment and cost reduction is the energy storage method.  Currently the most efficient batteries are very costly and EXTREMELY unfriendly to the environment.  By-product of their production is similar to spent nuclear fuel rods from a nuclear reactor (has to be stored, can't be "disposed of").  So we can get there, but the battery is a technology that is unique to this application and is the real expense of the whole thing.

I'm all for this but there is a lot of work, time and money needed to get it to a scalable model.  We'll get there, just a question of when.

From your opinion (someone actually working in the field), what are your thoughts on Elon Musk's vision on revamping this obstacle?

jesmu84

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #177 on: February 04, 2015, 05:52:09 PM »
I doubt that......we love our fossil fuels.

"We" don't love our fossil fuels. Fossil fuel companies (who wield amazing lobbying power both domestically and internationally) love their fossil fuels.

WarriorInNYC

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #178 on: February 04, 2015, 06:58:50 PM »
This is fantastic info you are providing on this mu03.  Much appreciated.  At least I've learned something while procrastinating at work, haha

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #179 on: February 04, 2015, 07:31:07 PM »
MU03,  I saw you mention the grid but did not go into detail other than its old.  There are actually "5" grids and its very difficult to carry power through any one of the grids because of age and because it was built in random sometimes different bits and pieces.  I'm on my phone now but tomorrow I'll find the very good National Geographic article from 5 years ago or so on it.

Coleman

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #180 on: February 04, 2015, 07:54:26 PM »
Really? That seems wildly high. I've seen less than 50 electric cars in my lifetime (admittedly Milwaukee-Chicago is not the hotbed of electric cars that CA is)

I see at least one a day on my (admittedly very long) Chicago commute

Concerning California: http://www.electric-vehiclenews.com/2014/11/electric-vehicles-account-for-almost-10.html

4everwarriors

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #181 on: February 04, 2015, 07:55:50 PM »
More games like this and the existence of a tax deduction won't matter, hey?
"Give 'Em Hell, Al"

mu03eng

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #182 on: February 04, 2015, 08:52:06 PM »
From your opinion (someone actually working in the field), what are your thoughts on Elon Musk's vision on revamping this obstacle?

Musk's vision is very interesting.  I met him once(not trying to be Chico's :) ) and the dude is amazing.  I'm never awestruck but after a 5 minute conversation I was almost speechless.  I think he's got the technical capability of Tesla with the salesmanship of Don Draper, pretty amazing and I would murder someone to work for him.

I say that so you know when I say I think he's wrong/too early, I mean it.  The battery is the key, and it is too bloody damn expensive and very dirty.  They take far more energy to manufacture then they save.  So how do you eliminate some of that?  You have to scale, you have to make it very large production.  That will help reduce cost and drive energy efficiency.  The problem is that it takes a lot of money to scale and you have to hope demand catches up with the product because the cost hits the sweet spot(if it does).

To make this happen Musk is having to bleed a bunch of venture capital and government subsidies to scale up big enough.  It is a huge gamble(with a limited amount of money on his part).  They are so far in the red to be nearly unsustainable.

I think it's too soon, the supporting infrastructure like I talked about previously isn't in place to support the type of demand needed to make this all work.  I would have waited one more technology iteration for the batteries to be more efficient.  Also would have given time for infrastructure to build out.

This doesn't even count the geopolitical issues.  The batteries are cheaper than they should be because the lithium used to produce is relatively cheap.  It's cheap because China is corning the market on lithium production to drive competitors out.  Assuming they are successful, they become the sole source of rare earth metals like lithium and then they no longer are cheap, ergo battery costs go up.

It absolutely could work, but there is no way on this planet I'm investing any of my or my families money in it.  Love for it to happen.  Musk is either going to be our generations Rockfeller/Carnagie or he is going to be a snake oil salesman of the century.  There will be no in between.

China has invested heavily in our debt and rare earth metals that make future technology go....they have us by the short hairs in the long game but thats a whole other story.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

mu03eng

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #183 on: February 04, 2015, 09:03:31 PM »
MU03,  I saw you mention the grid but did not go into detail other than its old.  There are actually "5" grids and its very difficult to carry power through any one of the grids because of age and because it was built in random sometimes different bits and pieces.  I'm on my phone now but tomorrow I'll find the very good National Geographic article from 5 years ago or so on it.

Yep, you're right....didn't want to go full nerd on everyone.  That article is great.

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2010/07/power-grid/achenbach-text

If we want to win the 21st century....replace the electric grid and universal broadband internet access....Life will be amazing.  It will be expensive as hell, but it will be the difference.

Not to mention the current grid wastes something like 20% of the generated energy transmitted.  Between old lines, substations, switch gear, etc it is so wasteful.  I've been in manufacturing plants at the end of a transmission line where their incoming voltage would be 700 volts first thing in the morning and down to 510 volts in the afternoon before coming back up at night.  So much waste.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #184 on: February 05, 2015, 07:21:27 AM »
Yep, you're right....didn't want to go full nerd on everyone.  That article is great.

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2010/07/power-grid/achenbach-text

If we want to win the 21st century....replace the electric grid and universal broadband internet access....Life will be amazing.  It will be expensive as hell, but it will be the difference.

Not to mention the current grid wastes something like 20% of the generated energy transmitted.  Between old lines, substations, switch gear, etc it is so wasteful.  I've been in manufacturing plants at the end of a transmission line where their incoming voltage would be 700 volts first thing in the morning and down to 510 volts in the afternoon before coming back up at night.  So much waste.

Thanks for finding! 

rocket surgeon

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #185 on: February 05, 2015, 07:36:39 AM »
Totally fair. I honestly don't know that much about battery tech.

I'm just speaking from a big picture perspective. The electric motor and the infrastructure are well established... those are a given (in my mind).

The last hurdle is battery technology, and I think in the next 15-20 years, that will be solved. I don't know what kind of voodoo we will be using, but battery tech. has come a long way in the past 15 years, so I assume it will go a long way in the next 15 years. If there is good profit to be made selling large scale car batteries, I assume somebody is going to figure it out.

Also, just for clarification, I don't think or expect electric automobiles to solve EVERY automotive need we have. But, for the majority of commuter cars, sedans, small SUVs, etc., it's going to be widely adopted.



Concerns about battery technology-rare earth metals. They are, well, rare. The process to gather these metals-mining. There are many influential groups that get really excited when a shovel is put into the ground or land is disturbed to harvest materials needed for energy- just throwing that out there.  Then of course, as I believe it has been mentioned, the disposal of used batteries. I'm sure as these pile up, someone will take advantage of this negative and turn it into an industry in and of itself-recycling, etc
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jsglow

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #186 on: February 05, 2015, 07:49:41 AM »
Now, you want to solve this problem....figure out how to transmit energy from space.  

99% of the suns energy is reflected back into space or absorbed by the atmosphere.  Want a truly sustainable, reliable, predictable and  pollution free(barring manufacturing by-products) energy source?  Solar energy collectors in space, essentially satellite solar panels/energy collectors.  We could probably create the right satellites to collect enough energy for the worlds needs within ten years if we wanted to.  The problem is how do you get all the stored energy from the satellites to here on earth?  Figure that out and you'll be a trillionaire and the world will be 95% pollutant free

Very long extension cords?  (Says the Bus Ad. alum)   ;D
« Last Edit: February 05, 2015, 07:56:08 AM by jsglow »

jsglow

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #187 on: February 05, 2015, 07:53:24 AM »
Yep, you're right....didn't want to go full nerd on everyone.  That article is great.


Umm.  Too late my friend.  ;)

Seriously.  Thanks.  It's been very informative.

mu03eng

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #188 on: February 05, 2015, 08:35:04 AM »
Umm.  Too late my friend.  ;)

Seriously.  Thanks.  It's been very informative.

Come on, I didn't even mention my meticulously cared for Star Wars action figures. ;)
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

jsglow

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #189 on: February 05, 2015, 08:48:58 AM »
Come on, I didn't even mention my meticulously cared for Star Wars action figures. ;)

 ;D

WarriorInNYC

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #190 on: February 05, 2015, 08:58:00 AM »
Come on, I didn't even mention my meticulously cared for Star Wars action figures. ;)

Star Wars nerd!  You must not know anything about basketball then   ;)

mu03eng

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #191 on: February 05, 2015, 08:59:29 AM »
Star Wars nerd!  You must not know anything about basketball then   ;)


Psssst, don't tell Ners
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

warriorchick

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #192 on: February 05, 2015, 09:25:43 AM »

Psssst, don't tell Ners

Chewbacca would be awesome at the post. 
Have some patience, FFS.

Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #193 on: February 05, 2015, 09:49:54 AM »
Thanks MUENG03 for the education. Very insightful stuff.

Maybe energy production will eventually become more localized to reduce the need of a "Grid"?


Spotcheck Billy

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #194 on: February 05, 2015, 10:05:45 AM »
I thought Hydrogen fuel cells were supposed to solve everything

Benny B

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #195 on: February 05, 2015, 10:52:12 AM »
Musk's vision is very interesting.  I met him once(not trying to be Chico's :) ) and the dude is amazing.  I'm never awestruck but after a 5 minute conversation I was almost speechless.  I think he's got the technical capability of Tesla with the salesmanship of Don Draper, pretty amazing and I would murder someone to work for him.

I say that so you know when I say I think he's wrong/too early, I mean it.  The battery is the key, and it is too bloody damn expensive and very dirty.  They take far more energy to manufacture then they save.  So how do you eliminate some of that?  You have to scale, you have to make it very large production.  That will help reduce cost and drive energy efficiency.  The problem is that it takes a lot of money to scale and you have to hope demand catches up with the product because the cost hits the sweet spot(if it does).

To make this happen Musk is having to bleed a bunch of venture capital and government subsidies to scale up big enough.  It is a huge gamble(with a limited amount of money on his part).  They are so far in the red to be nearly unsustainable.

I think it's too soon, the supporting infrastructure like I talked about previously isn't in place to support the type of demand needed to make this all work.  I would have waited one more technology iteration for the batteries to be more efficient.  Also would have given time for infrastructure to build out.

This doesn't even count the geopolitical issues.  The batteries are cheaper than they should be because the lithium used to produce is relatively cheap.  It's cheap because China is corning the market on lithium production to drive competitors out.  Assuming they are successful, they become the sole source of rare earth metals like lithium and then they no longer are cheap, ergo battery costs go up.

It absolutely could work, but there is no way on this planet I'm investing any of my or my families money in it.  Love for it to happen.  Musk is either going to be our generations Rockfeller/Carnagie or he is going to be a snake oil salesman of the century.  There will be no in between.

China has invested heavily in our debt and rare earth metals that make future technology go....they have us by the short hairs in the long game but thats a whole other story.

Seriously, Eng... you've got to see for yourself what's going on in Reno.  Even for someone in the commercial development industry, what Elon is doing right now in the north NV desert is amazing... what's mind-blowing is what else he might be doing there.

The sheer size of the plant aside, word on the street is that the gigafactory (or at least certain portions of it) is going to have security not ever before seen outside a government operation... one person described it as "Groom Lake without a halo."  I'm sure paranoia is playing a role here, but I've heard some speculation that Musk has his own Manhattan Project going that isn't just going to turn the automotive industry on its head, he's going to deadlift, spin around his head a few times, and body slam the entire energy production industry.  He's had 24/7 security at the site for several years (before they even had permits to do anything) doing nothing more than watching dirt, literally.

A bit of background is important here: consider that China's identified lithium resources (5.4M tons) are fifth behind Bolivia (9.0M), Chile (7.5M), Argentina (6.5M) and the US (5.5M).  Even though identified world resources total less than 40M tons, China has a ways to go before it acquires enough Li overseas to corner the market, and even still, amongst the US, our BFF Chile, and Argentina (who happens to answer every time we drunk dial her), the three of us control roughly half of the known Li resources (key word being known; more on that in a second).  But here's the kicker... annual production of Li is only around 30,000 tons/year, worldwide; at that rate, worldwide Li resources are enough to keep production going for well into the next millenium.

We know Musk is already planning a direct rail line to Silver Peak (largest active Li deposit in US), and the worst kept secret in Reno is that Tesla decided on the Reno site years ago despite only making the "official" announcement this past summer (publicly, SV, New Mexico, Phoenix, Tucson, and Texas were also being "considered") because of it's proximity to the Rock Springs Uplift.  If not familiar... think about what happens to the mom & pop retailers in a small town when Wal-Mart moves in... RSU's effect on the global lithium supply is essentially Walmart on steroids, novacaine, Nyquil, Darvon, some sort of fish paralyzer, and several cocktails.  Estimates vary, but a U of Wyoming researcher estimates as much as 18 million tons... now there may be enough for two millenia of production.

In 2003, 15.6M vehicles were sold in the US (six-year high), of which, about 0.65% were plug-in electric vehicles (PEV).  At 9-10 lbs. of Li per PEV on average, that would require increasing annual Li production by 34,000-38,000 tons annually, or just more than twice the current production, if the PEV goal is half of total cars being sold.  Bearing in mind that Li can be recycled an unlimited number of times, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that even if Elon doesn't have something up his sleeve, the Li supply is not the issue... the cost is the issue.  And that's the primary purpose of the gigafactory... to mass-produce the batteries and drive down the cost of the Tesla.

But if Elon is on to something and the secondary purpose here goes beyond simply growing Tesla's market share of vehicle sales, we're talking about one guy who could potentially piss off the Russians, Saudis, and the Chinese simultaneously (not even Hitler, Bin Laden or our last two PsOTUS were able to pull off that trifecta).  Irrespective of the conjecture, I am one person who is very thankful that Musk - despite his outside demeanor -  is a person on the side of advancement, not the status quo.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

jesmu84

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #196 on: February 05, 2015, 11:06:15 AM »
But if Elon is on to something and the secondary purpose here goes beyond simply growing Tesla's market share of vehicle sales, we're talking about one guy who could potentially piss off the Russians, Saudis, and the Chinese simultaneously (not even Hitler, Bin Laden or our last two PsOTUS were able to pull off that trifecta).  Irrespective of the conjecture, I am one person who is very thankful that Musk - despite his outside demeanor -  is a person on the side of advancement, not the status quo.

Not only the international enemies... I'd have to think that he'd make several domestic enemies as well seeing as how he'd take a large chunk of the automotive and fossil fuel market as well.

Benny B

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #197 on: February 05, 2015, 04:03:06 PM »
Not only the international enemies... I'd have to think that he'd make several domestic enemies as well seeing as how he'd take a large chunk of the automotive and fossil fuel market as well.

Very true, but at least the C-level guys over at GM and Texaco don't have access to weapons-grade plutonium.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

🏀

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #198 on: February 05, 2015, 04:46:24 PM »
Didn't someone find a buttload of Lithium in Wyoming?

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: President's Budget Eliminates Donation Expense for Tix
« Reply #199 on: February 05, 2015, 09:39:16 PM »
Didn't someone find a buttload of Lithium in Wyoming?

Nirvana was from Washington state..............