Malaysia Airlines MH370

[JWags85]

Haven't seen any topics on the missing 777.  More and more evidence seems to be leaking about it being a hijacking rather than an ocean crash.  Most interesting development/theory I've seen today was the hijacker/pilot shadowing another 777 commuter to mask its presence on radar.

http://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/20m5oc/comprehensive_timeline_malaysia_airlines_flight/cg4tfgj

There has been alot of worthless reporting from major news sources, the most interesting info I've gotten has been from the Reddit thread and from The Guardian.

I know there are some flight-affiliated people here, keefe among others, does that sort of theory make sense?  Basically by turning off their transponders, the aircraft being tailed wouldn't exactly be aware of their presence, and by flying higher, MH370 could have avoided jet wash.

And given Uygher militants in China attempting to hijack planes in the past, I can't imagine China is feeling too pleasant right now.  Then again, I think there is far more information known at the moment that isn't being disseminated for a variety of reasons.

[🏀]

Did I hear correctly that it's rumored the pilot took it up to 45,000 feet and dropped in below 20,000 feet to kill the passengers and crew via hypoxia?

Crash/keefe?

[JWags85]

Did I hear correctly that it's rumored the pilot took it up to 45,000 feet and dropped in below 20,000 feet to kill the passengers and crew via hypoxia?

Crash/keefe?

From what I read that was speculated to knock them out rather than straight up kill them.  Again, all speculation.

[🏀]

From what I read that was speculated to knock them out rather than straight up kill them.  Again, all speculation.

Could be some crazy stuff still to come.

My worry is if this a terror-linked, what stage 2 of the plan is.

[keefe]

I have been hunkered down testing a new alternative fuel technology for the past couple weeks so my situational awareness of world events is low. Having said which, three of my colleagues on this project are 20 year engineers at either Boeing and GE Power. In fact, one worked on the 777 wing and another on ACARS. And we all agree the coverage of this event is instructive not in what is being said but, rather, in what is not being said. And what is not being said clearly suggests this was not likely not mechanical or electronic failure.

The reality is that aircraft are engineered with redundancy - and more so with commercial than military. The shutdown/failure of so many automated and manual comms systems is statistically improbable. And given the lack of incident reporting, the comms failure had to have been observed/noted by KL Center and not Saigon Center. I have flown those airways many times in front and in back and if Saigon Center picked up the flight it would have reported a loss of positive radar control immediately.

The link you provided suggests MH 370 joined on an SQ flight to blend in with the radar clutter but I can assure you that the SQ Captain would have seen this and bitched about it. Loudly. All aircraft have an electronic IFF safety system for ATC tracking, mid-air collision avoidance, and instrumentation mensuration. Aircraft squawk signals in Modes 1-4. We know on this night it was CAVU to the moon so, in addition to being under positive radar control and flying VFR the Mode 3A/C or Mode 4 squawks would have warned the SQ crew of MH 370's presence. Furthermore, if an aircraft deselects IFF ATC will see that immediately and start asking questions. Loudly.

We know that the last civilian radar contact was KL Center. But if the aircraft altered course to WNW then RMAF Butterworth near Penang would have picked up the flight. And this military field would have had the last radar contact if the flight had headed out over the IO/Andaman Sea. The fact that no other ATC picked up the flight is suspect - that is a big chunk of steel to go unnoticed on a scope at Chennai which would have been the next major ATC on that flight path.

So again, what has been disclosed only says the aircraft altered course and headed west. The last radar contact was by RMAF Butterworth. If there were voice comms the transcripts have not been released. If there were not voice comms then Malaysia's lack of response is curious. The devil is in the details on this one and Malaysia is being very circumspect to the point where we are convinced they know a lot more than they are telling.

[brandx]

Another take on search using Probability. Interesting read.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-statisticians-could-help-find-flight-370/

[brandx]

Another take on the search using Probability. Interesting read.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-statisticians-could-help-find-flight-370/

[keefe]

Did I hear correctly that it's rumored the pilot took it up to 45,000 feet and dropped in below 20,000 feet to kill the passengers and crew via hypoxia?

Crash/keefe?

The erratic maneuvering would be more a result of hypoxia than an attempt to induce it. Hypoxia is what happens when your brain is starved for oxygen. It leads to a drunken stupor where one is conscious but unable to think clearly. Military pilots do an annual hypoxia drill where we go into a pressure chamber and they take us from 8k' to 30k' feet. As we are changing altidues we are on O2 and performing simple tasks - patty cake, arranging cards by suit (as seen in the movie Officer and a Gentleman.)  We are directed to remove our O2 masks and within seconds we are incoherent. The medical staff observing put our masks back on and we are cured immediately. The whole point is to illustrate how quickly one succumbs to hypoxia, how stupid you behave, but how quickly going back on O2 fixes it. An important point: The EPs for loss of cabin pressure require the pilot to descend below 10k' which eliminates the need for sup ox.

Given that a rapid loss of cabin pressure would have been triggered alarms and deployment of sup ox I find it unlikely that is what happened. There was an FAA warning issued recently for the 777 about rapid decompression and ensuing loss of airframe integrity which could explain a possible mishap where rapid decompression incapacitated the crew and the aircraft continued to fly well out over the IO before the suggested airframe failure occurred. The lack of radar coverage in the IO would account for the lack of locating data.

If the aircraft climbed to 45k', for whatever reason, the atmosphere would have stalled out the power plants and the aircraft could have entered a dive but anti-spin and stability control systems would have leveled the aircraft out at some point. Unless there had been some other catastrophic failure that had shorted out those systems.

But I question that the climb was executed to incapacitate passengers through hypoxia. The most serious issue is why there was a complete comms failure across multiple systems. The fact that the IFF system was turned off is the most troubling action which points to piracy more than a mechanical or electronic failure that would have registered other signatures.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Colonel, so this is the question I have around all this.  Why is it even possible for a crew to be able to turn off their transponder?  In what instance would it ever be ok not to be squawking back to the tower?   I guess I don't understand why pilots would need to turn it off on a commercial aircraft.  I get it for military purposes.

????

On the hypoxia thing, if the pilot deliberately took it to an altitude to starve passengers of oxygen, wouldn't the masks deploy and prevent passengers from that problem...or is it a finite limit (I guess the answer is yes) of oxygen which is why normally pilots in that scenario have to descend rather rapidly to get to an acceptable level.  If the pilot didn't, I suppose that would put the passengers in a pinch.

[🏀]

Really good stuff, Keefe. Thank you, please keep updating with your insight.

[DegenerateDish]

Is it a coincidence that the two Seals died aboard the Alabama outside Seychelles a few weeks before this?

The radar at Diego Garcia had to have picked up something.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

For what it's worth, for an outside the USA perspective, my mother-in-law filled me whnat they've been saying on Polish TV.  Something about a gold transport on the flight and the plane was taken to steal the gold. 

[mu03eng]

Colonel, so this is the question I have around all this.  Why is it even possible for a crew to be able to turn off their transponder?  In what instance would it ever be ok not to be squawking back to the tower?   I guess I don't understand why pilots would need to turn it off on a commercial aircraft.  I get it for military purposes.

????

On the hypoxia thing, if the pilot deliberately took it to an altitude to starve passengers of oxygen, wouldn't the masks deploy and prevent passengers from that problem...or is it a finite limit (I guess the answer is yes) of oxygen which is why normally pilots in that scenario have to descend rather rapidly to get to an acceptable level.  If the pilot didn't, I suppose that would put the passengers in a pinch.

I guess I can't speak to all commercial aircraft but I know US based airliners can be taken into auxiliary military service in times of war, which would require IFF to be turned off.

There is a finite supply but you would have to be at altitude for a significant amount of time to exhaust the supply(at least 15 minutes that I'm aware of).  Air crew have an independent supplemental oxygen supply.  But to Keefe's point to get to an altitude where you can "kill" off the crew the airframe would stop flying for a while.  Additionally, you'd have to have a method for safely depressurizing the aircraft without impacting the integrity of the airframe.

[nyg]

For what it's worth, for an outside the USA perspective, my mother-in-law filled me whnat they've been saying on Polish TV.  Something about a gold transport on the flight and the plane was taken to steal the gold. 

They are definitely looking into the cargo aspect of the plane, don't know about the gold though.

More important is the passenger manifest and who was on the aircraft, specifically if there was a target passenger/s onboard.  If you recall (I attached the WIKI article to read), the Egyptian flight had over 30 high ranking Military Officers onboard.  NTSB/FBI investigation determined it was a deliberate act by the flight officer to crash the aircraft.  Reason is debated, but the probable reason was to kill the Officers onboard.  Egyptian Authorities didn't agree and stated it was a mechanical failure.  Let the conspiracy theories run rampant on this new flight.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EgyptAir_Flight_990

[mu03eng]

For the record, completely discount any flying below the radar nonsense.  The type of precision required to execute a low level penetration even over the wide open ocean is very complex and requires specialized equipment to execute successfully.  Folks asleep at the switch may have missed the radar returns but by no means was a 777 doing 300 knots at 100 AGL

[keefe]

Colonel, so this is the question I have around all this.  Why is it even possible for a crew to be able to turn off their transponder?  In what instance would it ever be ok not to be squawking back to the tower?   I guess I don't understand why pilots would need to turn it off on a commercial aircraft.  I get it for military purposes.

????

On the hypoxia thing, if the pilot deliberately took it to an altitude to starve passengers of oxygen, wouldn't the masks deploy and prevent passengers from that problem...or is it a finite limit (I guess the answer is yes) of oxygen which is why normally pilots in that scenario have to descend rather rapidly to get to an acceptable level.  If the pilot didn't, I suppose that would put the passengers in a pinch.

IFF systems are hard wired into all aircraft avionics. All boxes can squawk Modes 1-4 (military has one more, Mode 5) but Modes 1,2, and 4 require NSA crypto gear that encode the signals. Commercial and military both Squawk Mode 3A and Mode 3C. Military pilots can deselect IFF for cloaking under EMCON conditions. Civilian aircraft cannot directly disengage IFF but it can be done through the fuse box.

But as I say, deselecting IFF or disabling it through the fuse box triggers all sorts of alarms in the flight station as well as at ATC. Let's say a UA 777 pops a breaker while flying from ORD to SFO. If DEN Center is controlling that flight it will immediately interrogate a number of systems, including the flight deck personnel. If it doesn't get a positive response it escalates to NORAD - west of the MS is WADS at McChord AFB. WADS will likely scramble some F 16s from somewhere to run an intercept.

What we do not know is what did KL ATC do once the Mode 3A/3C Squawk went NORDO? I guarantee you that the Malaysian government already knows more than they are letting on. And there might be a very good intel reason for not disclosing what they know.

The reason I discount hypoxia is simply going to 45k' doesn't cause hypoxia in a pressurized aircraft; someone needs to decompress the cabin from 8k' to 45k' in order to knock out the passengers. One of my colleagues knows the environmental control systems on the 777 and he says Boeing has engineered multiple sensors into the 777 system that triggers a release of the O2 masks. So it is virtually impossible to systemically prevent deployment of O2 systems. The only limitation is the amount of O2 which is usually about 15 minutes to allow the crew to get the bird below 10k'.

[Blackhat]

Wouldn't U.S. Satellite pick this action up?   

[DegenerateDish]

Wouldn't U.S. Satellite pick this action up?   

Diego Garcia absolutely should have picked this up. There's no way that base didn't.

[melissasmooth]

IFF systems are hard wired into all aircraft avionics. All boxes can squawk Modes 1-4 (military has one more, Mode 5) but Modes 1,2, and 4 require NSA crypto gear that encode the signals. Commercial and military both Squawk Mode 3A and Mode 3C. Military pilots can deselect IFF for cloaking under EMCON conditions. Civilian aircraft cannot directly disengage IFF but it can be done through the fuse box.

But as I say, deselecting IFF or disabling it through the fuse box triggers all sorts of alarms in the flight station as well as at ATC. Let's say a UA 777 pops a breaker while flying from ORD to SFO. If DEN Center is controlling that flight it will immediately interrogate a number of systems, including the flight deck personnel. If it doesn't get a positive response it escalates to NORAD - west of the MS is WADS at McChord AFB. WADS will likely scramble some F 16s from somewhere to run an intercept.

What we do not know is what did KL ATC do once the Mode 3A/3C Squawk went NORDO? I guarantee you that the Malaysian government already knows more than they are letting on. And there might be a very good intel reason for not disclosing what they know.

The reason I discount hypoxia is simply going to 45k' doesn't cause hypoxia in a pressurized aircraft; someone needs to decompress the cabin from 8k' to 45k' in order to knock out the passengers. One of my colleagues knows the environmental control systems on the 777 and he says Boeing has engineered multiple sensors into the 777 system that triggers a release of the O2 masks. So it is virtually impossible to systemically prevent deployment of O2 systems. The only limitation is the amount of O2 which is usually about 15 minutes to allow the crew to get the bird below 10k'.

If you had to put money on what you think happened what would be your bet?

[keefe]

Diego Garcia absolutely should have picked this up. There's no way that base didn't.

Diego Garcia to Penang is more than 2000 nm. Unless there was anomalous propagation refracting the electromagnetic pulses the range of the air search radars at BIOT would reach nowhere near MH 370's projected flight path.

Let me give you some perspective - an E3A Sentry AWACS operating above 24k' has an effective range of less than 250 nm. An air search radar at sea level has significantly less range; BIOT sits at sea level right on the equator with minimal temperature inversion. Diego Garcia never got a whiff of this aircraft.  

[keefe]

If you had to put money on what you think happened what would be your bet?

Not copping out but we don't have enough info. But the lack of a fire ball, oil slick, or flotsam seems to say some bad guys got control and commandeered this asset. It went somewhere and the lack of reporting suggests there were people on the ground But again, there is still way too much that even a guy with 8,000 hours cannot deconflict the story with reasonable confidence.

[DegenerateDish]

That's assuming the plane went down right away and didn't continue westward. Find it hard to believe some one at Diego Garcia wasn't aware once that plane lost contact and turned west.

The US has been way too quiet on this.

[mu03eng]

That's assuming the plane went down right away and didn't continue westward. Find it hard to believe some one at Diego Garcia wasn't aware once that plane lost contact and turned west.

The US has been way too quiet on this.

Diego Garcia couldn't have seen a 777 unless it was within at least 300NM with the radar at full power, unlikely at that point.  Easily could have slipped by south of Sri Lanka.  There are a lot of things that don't add up, but I wouldn't ascribe conspiracy to the US government just yet.

[DegenerateDish]

Diego Garcia couldn't have seen a 777 unless it was within at least 300NM with the radar at full power, unlikely at that point.  Easily could have slipped by south of Sri Lanka.  There are a lot of things that don't add up, but I wouldn't ascribe conspiracy to the US government just yet.

I understand the physical radar distance, but once that plane went AWOL and headed westward, some alarm should have gone off.

Still having trouble believing two ex Seals died of heart attacks on the Alabama a couple weeks before this is not a coincidence.

[WellsstreetWanderer]

I'M LEANING TOWARD THE ALIEN ABDUCTION ANGLE