2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match

[Henry Sugar]

Baez! 2015 World Series campaign starts tonight! I expect him to go 4-5 with 2 doubles and a home run. Plus 3 of  the top 10 plays on tomorrow's SC.

Between Baez, Castro, Rizzo, and Bryant, plus the veteran leadership of phenoms Corey Patterson, Tyler Colvin, Jeff Samardzija, Mark Prior, Soto, Pie, and Hee Seop Choi, we are golden.

This entire quote was well played. Baez's first ML hit was a game-winning HR. Welcome to the majors.

For the record, I fully expect a lot of games like last night for Baez the rest of the season. A couple strikeouts, 1-5 overall with a HR or double.

BTW, you forgot Soler (who will be up before Bryant). Plus Almora, Russell, and Schwarber (2016). The future is bright

[swoopem]

This entire quote was well played. Baez's first ML hit was a game-winning HR. Welcome to the majors.

For the record, I fully expect a lot of games like last night for Baez the rest of the season. A couple strikeouts, 1-5 overall with a HR or double.

BTW, you forgot Soler (who will be up before Bryant). Plus Almora, Russell, and Schwarber (2016). The future is bright

And then let's buy Max Scherzer this offseason to go along with Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta and you have a decent staff. Even though the Cubs drafted a ton of pitchers this year I have a feeling the staff will be made through free agency.

[LAZER]

And then let's buy Max Scherzer this offseason to go along with Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta and you have a decent staff. Even though the Cubs drafted a ton of pitchers this year I have a feeling the staff will be made through free agency.

Lester sounds more like he'll be their #1 target this offseason. I also think at some point the Cubs will flip some players for another big pitcher.

[swoopem]

This could be total BS but I heard that Lester is basically on rent to the A's right now and that he and the Red Sox already have a deal worked out for him to return this offseason. Baseball tonight was talking about this during their trade deadline special.

[drewm88]

Not sure why Samardzija is in there, but Baez is exciting. Problem with CPat, Pie and Choi was the internal hype that was created they would never live up to it. The new farm system has the scouts hype for once in their history.

Good points all around. It's exciting to finally have the payoff of the last 5 years or so begin to materialize at the major league level.

[Henry Sugar]

Lester sounds more like he'll be their #1 target this offseason. I also think at some point the Cubs will flip some players for another big pitcher.

100% agreed. I fully expect the Cubs to (over)pay for a top end pitcher this offseason. Dave Kaplan is pretty adamant that the Cubs won't go after Scherzer based on injury concerns.

This trading deadline pretty clearly proved that pitching is almost always available via trade.

[LAZER]

This could be total BS but I heard that Lester is basically on rent to the A's right now and that he and the Red Sox already have a deal worked out for him to return this offseason. Baseball tonight was talking about this during their trade deadline special.

I've heard that as well, but I'm pretty skeptical given the original lowball offer Boston gave him.

[CTWarrior]

This could be total BS but I heard that Lester is basically on rent to the A's right now and that he and the Red Sox already have a deal worked out for him to return this offseason. Baseball tonight was talking about this during their trade deadline special.

I wish this was true, but it isn't.  The Red Sox won't come close to the best offers for Lester, because they are set in their ways that 5-6 years is way too long to commit to a 30 year-old, especially a pitcher.  I hope they change their mind, and I desperately hope someone other than the Yankees sign him.  The Yankees love to stick it to the Red Sox and sign their players (see Boggs, Youkilis, Damon, Ellsury, etc)  I think the Red Sox will try to work out a deal for Hamels and try to sign James Shields to a shorter contract and otherwise go with their kids (De La Rosa, Watson, Workman, Buccholz).  

[MDMU04]

Not sure why Samardzija is in there, but Baez is exciting. Problem with CPat, Pie and Choi was the internal hype that was created they would never live up to it. The new farm system has the scouts hype for once in their history.

The especially funny part is that none of the previous flameouts mentioned would be in the team photo of talent in the current cubs farm system.

A major issue that Hoyer and Epstein corrected was building a scouting and development system. The cubs had the smallest off field staff in baseball, from front office to scouting and player development. The organization has undergone a fundamental transformation in this area in the last three years.

Comparing talent between what was in the farm system in years past and what is there now is not analogous.

[MDMU04]

100% agreed. I fully expect the Cubs to (over)pay for a top end pitcher this offseason. Dave Kaplan is pretty adamant that the Cubs won't go after Scherzer based on injury concerns.

This trading deadline pretty clearly proved that pitching is almost always available via trade.

They may not even have to trade for top pitching talent. The core position players will be so inexpensive and under team control for a very long time. The upcoming TV contracts and ballpark renovations will provide new revenue streams to the point where the cubs could sink $100-$150mm into their pitching staff every season and not flinch at the cost.

[brandx]

I wish this was true, but it isn't.  The Red Sox won't come close to the best offers for Lester, because they are set in their ways that 5-6 years is way too long to commit to a 30 year-old, especially a pitcher.  I hope they change their mind, and I desperately hope someone other than the Yankees sign him.  The Yankees love to stick it to the Red Sox and sign their players (see Boggs, Youkilis, Damon, Ellsury, etc)  I think the Red Sox will try to work out a deal for Hamels and try to sign James Shields to a shorter contract and otherwise go with their kids (De La Rosa, Watson, Workman, Buccholz).  

The problem is that going with the kids means last place again. There is certainly no #1, #2, or #3 starter on that list.

[CTWarrior]

The problem is that going with the kids means last place again. There is certainly no #1, #2, or #3 starter on that list.

Buchholz pitches like a #1 (2007, 2010, 2013) or like "number 2" (all the other years). 
They'll pick up some guys in free agency or trade (I guessed Hamels and Shields).  Between those guys, Kelly and the young guys, they could cobble together a solid starting staff.  They have all kinds of money to spend with no long-term huge money contracts on the books.  They can afford to do a lot.  The question is, will they?

[wadesworld]

Buchholz pitches like a #1 (2007, 2010, 2013) or like "number 2" (all the other years). 
They'll pick up some guys in free agency or trade (I guessed Hamels and Shields).  Between those guys, Kelly and the young guys, they could cobble together a solid starting staff.  They have all kinds of money to spend with no long-term huge money contracts on the books.  They can afford to do a lot.  The question is, will they?

Will Joe Kelly be in their starting rotation?

[brandx]

Buchholz pitches like a #1 (2007, 2010, 2013) or like "number 2" (all the other years). 
They'll pick up some guys in free agency or trade (I guessed Hamels and Shields).  Between those guys, Kelly and the young guys, they could cobble together a solid starting staff.  They have all kinds of money to spend with no long-term huge money contracts on the books.  They can afford to do a lot.  The question is, will they?

What?? He made 3 starts in '07 and only 16 in '13. Are you really saying that when he had ERAs like 4.21, 4.56, 6.20, and 6.75 that he pitched like a #2 starter? Pretty low standards.


And Kelly will be no better. Minor league records do indicate big league success.

The current staff (plus the young guys) will be good enough to produce another last place season. They needs two top pitchers (and I expect they will sign a couple) because there is nothing better than a borderline #3 on the staff right now.

[CTWarrior]

What?? He made 3 starts in '07 and only 16 in '13. Are you really saying that when he had ERAs like 4.21, 4.56, 6.20, and 6.75 that he pitched like a #2 starter? Pretty low standards.

No, I meant "number 2" as in excrement.

[brandx]

No, I meant "number 2" as in excrement.

I should have notice the difference between "#1" and "number 2". Slipped right by me.

[akmarq]

Nope.  But at SS I'll personally take a player who is better defensively and struggles offensively vs. a player who struggles defensively but is better offensively.

And again, I'm not saying Jean is a better player than Castro.  I'm just saying that at 19 years old Castro was supposed to be the next big thing in baseball, the can't miss prospect, and 5 years later he is the exact same player he was at 19 years old.  In fact, Castro has gotten worse over the last 2 years than he was his first 3 years.

(Although, if we are looking at overall WAR, Jean's WAR last year - first full season in the majors - is higher than any year in Castro's career, and Jean's WAR this year is higher than Castro's is this year.)

If being the 4th best SS in baseball by wRC+ (and 7th best by WAR) is 'being the exact same player' then I don't think you can complain about being the exact same player.

As far as preferring offense vs. defense at SS, it really shouldn't matter - the preference should be for the overall better combination of both and (to date) that is Castro. If you HAD to pick offense or defense, offense is likely more valuable at SS because it offers more flexibility. It's not hard to find a replacement level SS who can field at or above average and not hit. Finding a player who can hack it at SS (even if it's not pretty and costs your team runs) but provides a huge upgrade to the offense allows more roster construction flexibility - the Cubs can always move Castro to 2B if a better defensive option emerges at SS.

The only reason to prefer Segura to Castro are if you believe he has a better offensive trajectory than he's shown so far and I just don't see that. Segura's peak (106 wRC+ in 2013) is only marginally better than Castro's career average (96) and the rest of Segura's career (basically 1 season between 2012 and 2014) he's been sub-70. Castro has never posted a sub-70 wRC+.

[buckchuckler]

If being the 4th best SS in baseball by wRC+ (and 7th best by WAR) is 'being the exact same player' then I don't think you can complain about being the exact same player.

As far as preferring offense vs. defense at SS, it really shouldn't matter - the preference should be for the overall better combination of both and (to date) that is Castro. If you HAD to pick offense or defense, offense is likely more valuable at SS because it offers more flexibility. It's not hard to find a replacement level SS who can field at or above average and not hit. Finding a player who can hack it at SS (even if it's not pretty and costs your team runs) but provides a huge upgrade to the offense allows more roster construction flexibility - the Cubs can always move Castro to 2B if a better defensive option emerges at SS.

The only reason to prefer Segura to Castro are if you believe he has a better offensive trajectory than he's shown so far and I just don't see that. Segura's peak (106 wRC+ in 2013) is only marginally better than Castro's career average (96) and the rest of Segura's career (basically 1 season between 2012 and 2014) he's been sub-70. Castro has never posted a sub-70 wRC+.

Huh?  You seem to be saying that Castro's subpar defense at SS doesn't matter because the team can move him off of SS.  It is a pretty good reason to prefer Segura if you want a player whose offensive skills can stick at that premium defensive position.

[akmarq]

But segura's offensive skills are bad one half season excepted.

Castro is a more valuable SS because his offense more than overcomes his defense (thus the higher WAR than Segura). He's a more valuable general asset because he gives you more positional flexibility. Segura is only valuable if he's playing SS - if the Cubs bring up Russell or any of the other SS prospects they have in the minors they can move Castro and he still profiles as an above average bat at another position. If the Brewers had a similar prospect that could displace Segura, you can't put Segura anywhere else - he'd be worse than replacement level.

His subpar defense does matter but he's still the overall better asset to have. Picking players 'by type' is a good way to build a bad roster. You just want the best players possible and you find a way to fit them into a lineup that optimizes their skill.

[tower912]

Anibal Sanchez to the DL, Verlander left tonight's game with right shoulder soreness.   Clubhouse lacks a fiery leader, as it has for the last several years.    Move your money to KC.   

[wadesworld]

Anibal Sanchez to the DL, Verlander left tonight's game with right shoulder soreness.   Clubhouse lacks a fiery leader, as it has for the last several years.    Move your money to KC.   

"Shoulder soreness" = sucking too much because he's off the PEDs.

[🏀]

"Shoulder soreness" = sucking too much because he's off the PEDs.

Speaking of off PEDS



Context shouldn't be necessary, but will assume it will be eventually.

First guy to correctly guess it gets a free beer from PTM at a game next year.

[wadesworld]

Speaking of off PEDS



Context shouldn't be necessary, but will assume it will be eventually.

First guy to correctly guess it gets a free beer from PTM at a game next year.

Don't know who it is, but also don't know what big time players prior to the last 5 years weren't on PEDs.  Even these days I'm more surprised when someone isn't than when they are.

[ChicosBailBonds]

How's this for the daily double.  About two weeks ago I'm at Wrigley and it was the longest game in Cubs history.  Two nights ago, at Angels Stadium...longest game in Angels history, over 6 hours long, 19 innings.

Lots of free baseball for me the last few weeks.

[🏀]

How's this for the daily double.  About two weeks ago I'm at Wrigley and it was the longest game in Cubs history.  Two nights ago, at Angels Stadium...longest game in Angels history, over 6 hours long, 19 innings.

Lots of free baseball for me the last few weeks.

My apologies to you.