2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match

[Vander Blue Man Group]

 

I'm a White Sox fan.  I wouldn't trade Chris Sale for Bryant.  Or Bryant and Soler.  Or probably even Bryant, Soler and Baez. 

Well at least we know you would be a horrendous GM....

[buckchuckler]

Well at least we know you would be a horrendous GM....

That's fine.  If I were a team that had a what top 5 pitcher, I wouldn't want to let go of him for anything less than a top 5 hitter.  Could Bryant be that?  Sure, seems like he actually could.  Though Ben Grieve seemed like that too.  2 time minor league player of the year, seasons with 70+ XBH, top 10 prospect several times including number 1.  Some good seasons in the bigs, but wouldn't have been worth trading a number 1 starter for.  Soler and Baez both have some things to be concerned about.  

If I have surefire greatness locked up in a longterm team friendly contract, why would I want anything but dead certainty coming back.  

Maybe I am overvaluing  him because I'm a Sox fan.  Maybe I am overvaluing him because he is a LHP, and there aren't a bunch of those around, especially that throw mid to upper 90s.  Maybe it is because I would personally rather build around great pitching.  

In 2011 the top 10 prospects included Jesus Montero, Domonic Brown, Jeremy Hellickson, and James Taillon.
in 2012 they included guys like Bubba Starling, Brett Jackson and Gary Brown.

Prospects are just that.  Sale is a proven elite MLB talent.  
Jeff Samardzija netted at top 10 prospect, the previous year 1st rounder, and another former top100 prospect.  Sale is 5 years younger, better, signed longer and signed for less money.  He should command more, a lot more, than Shark.  

[buckchuckler]

Brewers just acquired Adam Lind.  Interesting move, certainly seems like he could be good fit and fill a need.  Just depends on which Adam Lind shows up. 

[🏀]

Levine is a hack. He's a mouthpiece for the Cubs and that's about all

Yeah, there's a lot of baseball people that disagree with you.

[wadesworld]

Brewers just acquired Adam Lind.  Interesting move, certainly seems like he could be good fit and fill a need.  Just depends on which Adam Lind shows up. 

Bad Adam Lind is head and shoulders above anything the Brewers have thrown out at first base since Prince left town, so it's an upgrade any way you look at it.  See if you can find any kind of plate discipline and instill some small ball (highly doubt either of those work out, but whatever) and hope Segura's bat comes around a little bit (I'm guessing he's really somewhere between what he was for the first 1/2 season he was on the Brewers and the last season and a half, not a great offensive player, but not the black hole he was in the lineup last year), and see Braun go back to HOF production with his thumb healed  and we've got one more run at the Playoffs.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

That's fine.  If I were a team that had a what top 5 pitcher, I wouldn't want to let go of him for anything less than a top 5 hitter.  Could Bryant be that?  Sure, seems like he actually could.  Though Ben Grieve seemed like that too.  2 time minor league player of the year, seasons with 70+ XBH, top 10 prospect several times including number 1.  Some good seasons in the bigs, but wouldn't have been worth trading a number 1 starter for.  Soler and Baez both have some things to be concerned about.  

If I have surefire greatness locked up in a longterm team friendly contract, why would I want anything but dead certainty coming back.  

Maybe I am overvaluing  him because I'm a Sox fan.  Maybe I am overvaluing him because he is a LHP, and there aren't a bunch of those around, especially that throw mid to upper 90s.  Maybe it is because I would personally rather build around great pitching.  

In 2011 the top 10 prospects included Jesus Montero, Domonic Brown, Jeremy Hellickson, and James Taillon.
in 2012 they included guys like Bubba Starling, Brett Jackson and Gary Brown.

Prospects are just that.  Sale is a proven elite MLB talent.  
Jeff Samardzija netted at top 10 prospect, the previous year 1st rounder, and another former top100 prospect.  Sale is 5 years younger, better, signed longer and signed for less money.  He should command more, a lot more, than Shark.  

My response probably came off more dick'ish than I intended.

I am a Cubs fan so I probably overvalue some of our prospects to a certain extent.  Sale is clearly one of the best pitchers in baseball and signed to a reasonable contract as of now.  However, I still have concerns with his future health/durability and he is eventually going to get expensive.  You have to take those factors into account.

I believe Bryant is as close to can't miss as you can get for a prospect and I expect him to be an impact hitter sooner than later.  Comparing Bryant to guys like Brett Jackson and Bubba Starling just because they have been highly rated prospects at one point isn't accurate to me (and I completely understand how often top prospects flame out).  Bryant had a historical season.  As much as the Cubs need a #1 right now I am pretty confident they wouldn't move Bryant for Sale.

As for Soler, there are concerns like there are for any young player.  However, he really acquitted himself well in September and he has a pretty polished approach.  I actually feel fairly confident he can be an impact hitter as well and don't think he will flame out.  Baez is the ultimate crapshoot - his ceiling is incredibly high and his floor is incredibly low.  I am hoping for the best but I have no idea how he is going to turn out.

I also completely agree that Sale should be more valuable than Samardzija.  I don't think Jeff is a #1 and am glad we didn't offer him more than the reported 5/85 deal.  Samardzija didn't get all those guys himself although he is the reason we got Russell, which I am thrilled with.  In theory, should Sale bring back more in trade than Samardzija?  Absolutely but that's not guaranteed based on all of the potential variables.

I get that Sale is your guy as a Sox fan but to say you wouldn't trade him for all three of those guys or strongly consider it for 2 of the 3 is nuts, IMO.  

As a Cubs fan it has been fascinating to watch this rebuild and everything seems to be coming together so it is hard not to be excited.  Obviously, there are no guarantees with prospects but I feel that we have enough high impact prospects that we'll be fine even with the expected attrition (and having Rizzo and Castro signed to reasonable extensions already doesn't hurt).  I'm also confident we'll find the impact pitching we need.  

[buckchuckler]

My response probably came off more dick'ish than I intended.

I am a Cubs fan so I probably overvalue some of our prospects to a certain extent.  Sale is clearly one of the best pitchers in baseball and signed to a reasonable contract as of now.  However, I still have concerns with his future health/durability and he is eventually going to get expensive.  You have to take those factors into account.

I believe Bryant is as close to can't miss as you can get for a prospect and I expect him to be an impact hitter sooner than later.  Comparing Bryant to guys like Brett Jackson and Bubba Starling just because they have been highly rated prospects at one point isn't accurate to me (and I completely understand how often top prospects flame out).  Bryant had a historical season.  As much as the Cubs need a #1 right now I am pretty confident they wouldn't move Bryant for Sale.

As for Soler, there are concerns like there are for any young player.  However, he really acquitted himself well in September and he has a pretty polished approach.  I actually feel fairly confident he can be an impact hitter as well and don't think he will flame out.  Baez is the ultimate crapshoot - his ceiling is incredibly high and his floor is incredibly low.  I am hoping for the best but I have no idea how he is going to turn out.

I also completely agree that Sale should be more valuable than Samardzija.  I don't think Jeff is a #1 and am glad we didn't offer him more than the reported 5/85 deal.  Samardzija didn't get all those guys himself although he is the reason we got Russell, which I am thrilled with.  In theory, should Sale bring back more in trade than Samardzija?  Absolutely but that's not guaranteed based on all of the potential variables.

I get that Sale is your guy as a Sox fan but to say you wouldn't trade him for all three of those guys or strongly consider it for 2 of the 3 is nuts, IMO.  

As a Cubs fan it has been fascinating to watch this rebuild and everything seems to be coming together so it is hard not to be excited.  Obviously, there are no guarantees with prospects but I feel that we have enough high impact prospects that we'll be fine even with the expected attrition (and having Rizzo and Castro signed to reasonable extensions already doesn't hurt).  I'm also confident we'll find the impact pitching we need.  

The big thing about Sale is he is signed to that reasonable deal through 2019, through age 30.  That's pretty much all of his prime.  Which is huge.  If he has injury problems, the last 2 years are option years, so the ball is in the Sox court there.

I really meant more to compare Bryant and Grieve.  In Grieve's 21 year old season he was split between AA and AAA, he slashed .350/.461/.640 for an OPS of 1.100 with 40 2B, 31 HR and 136 RBI in 127 games.  He also BBd 93 times. 

In his 22 season Bryant slashed .325/.438/.661 for an OPS of 1.098.  Bryant hit 34 2b and 41 HR with 110 RBI in 138 games.  I feel like that is a pretty good comp, would someone have been stupid to not trade a 28 year old Mike Mussina for him?  Or a 30 year old Randy Johnson, or a 25 year old Pedro? 

I really meant some off field stuff for Soler, and Baez looks like he is Dan Uggla, but he is young enough to adjust.  The Cubs have a lot of talent in the minors, and starting in the bigs.  But Sale... in 3 years as a starter his worst season is finishing 6th in Cy Young voting.  He is the guy every team wants in front of their rotation.  That is what the Cubs completely lack.  It'll be interesting to see what they do in free agency this year.  Lots of good arms available. 

[brandx]

The big thing about Sale is he is signed to that reasonable deal through 2019, through age 30.  That's pretty much all of his prime.  Which is huge.  If he has injury problems, the last 2 years are option years, so the ball is in the Sox court there.

I really meant more to compare Bryant and Grieve.  In Grieve's 21 year old season he was split between AA and AAA, he slashed .350/.461/.640 for an OPS of 1.100 with 40 2B, 31 HR and 136 RBI in 127 games.  He also BBd 93 times. 

In his 22 season Bryant slashed .325/.438/.661 for an OPS of 1.098.  Bryant hit 34 2b and 41 HR with 110 RBI in 138 games.  I feel like that is a pretty good comp, would someone have been stupid to not trade a 28 year old Mike Mussina for him?  Or a 30 year old Randy Johnson, or a 25 year old Pedro? 

I really meant some off field stuff for Soler, and Baez looks like he is Dan Uggla, but he is young enough to adjust.  The Cubs have a lot of talent in the minors, and starting in the bigs.  But Sale... in 3 years as a starter his worst season is finishing 6th in Cy Young voting.  He is the guy every team wants in front of their rotation.  That is what the Cubs completely lack.  It'll be interesting to see what they do in free agency this year.  Lots of good arms available. 

Agree with much of what you say - except Uggla would be about the last person I would compare Baez to. Baez has the kind of bat speed that we saw with Ernie Banks, Hank Aaron, Gary Sheffield, GianCarlo Stanton, etc. I'm certainly not comparing him with any of those guys, but his ceiling is not too far away from that. He can be a consistent 30 - 35 HR guy.

He has had trouble every time he has moved up a level and every time he has adjusted. It will be more difficult at this level, but I expect he will. I'm guessing in the .250+ range next year. I think that with his hands and bat speed, he will be the best of all of the Cubs' young guys in three years - maybe comparable to Hanley with a little more power and a little less SB.

[buckchuckler]

Agree with much of what you say - except Uggla would be about the last person I would compare Baez to. Baez has the kind of bat speed that we saw with Ernie Banks, Hank Aaron, Gary Sheffield, GianCarlo Stanton, etc. I'm certainly not comparing him with any of those guys, but his ceiling is not too far away from that. He can be a consistent 30 - 35 HR guy.

He has had trouble every time he has moved up a level and every time he has adjusted. It will be more difficult at this level, but I expect he will. I'm guessing in the .250+ range next year. I think that with his hands and bat speed, he will be the best of all of the Cubs' young guys in three years - maybe comparable to Hanley with a little more power and a little less SB.

Just for the record, Dan Uggla HR by year: 27, 31,32,31,33,36,19,22.  5 straight seasons of 30+ hr.  My comparision with Uggla was based on a couple of factors.  Crazy power, especially for a MI, crazy K's, not a lot of BB.  

The really concerning thing about him was 95Ks in 215 ABs.  That is really a lot of whifcute onee. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Just for the record, Dan Uggla HR by year: 27, 31,32,31,33,36,19,22.  5 straight seasons of 30+ hr.  My comparision with Uggla was based on a couple of factors.  Crazy power, especially for a MI, crazy K's, not a lot of BB.  

The really concerning thing about him was 95Ks in 215 ABs.  That is really a lot of whifcute onee. 

Baez is definitely going to K at an absurd rate but I believe he was also the youngest player in the league once he was called up. He got himself out quite a bit swinging at the high fastball and the low-and-away breaking pitch.  The power and bat speed is not in question and he actually was a pleasant surprise to me defensively.  If he can hit 30 - 40 HRs at 2B with an 800+ OPS I'll take that any day regardless of the Ks. 

Uggla had a really nice 5-6 year run but he fell off the cliff quickly. 

[buckchuckler]

Baez is definitely going to K at an absurd rate but I believe he was also the youngest player in the league once he was called up. He got himself out quite a bit swinging at the high fastball and the low-and-away breaking pitch.  The power and bat speed is not in question and he actually was a pleasant surprise to me defensively.  If he can hit 30 - 40 HRs at 2B with an 800+ OPS I'll take that any day regardless of the Ks. 

Uggla had a really nice 5-6 year run but he fell off the cliff quickly. 

He sure did, and I didn't mean to slight Baez with the comp.  Uggla was just the feast and famine type that Baez looks to be.  Though Baez is still so young maybe he has time to change his approach a bit. 

[buckchuckler]

For the record, this is from Boston Globe reporter, Nick Cafardo "he got “a minute of straight laughter” when he asked if the White Sox might trade Chris Sale."

[🏀]

No one going to mention that Oscar Taveras was crapfaced?

[wadesworld]

No one going to mention that Oscar Taveras was crapfaced?

Stupid decision, but does that change the fact that it's too bad a 22  year old is dead?

[🏀]

Stupid decision, but does that change the fact that it's too bad a 22  year old is dead?

Yes.

[CTWarrior]

Stupid decision, but does that change the fact that it's too bad a 22  year old is dead?

Doesn't change the fact that its too bad that a 22 year old is dead, but it does lessen my sympathy, especially when you consider his actions also resulted in the death of his 18 year-old girlfriend.

[tower912]

In one of the IU threads, I wrote that you can never underestimate the ability of an 18-21 year old male to bake bad decisions.   Even though he was 22, I think this falls under that umbrella.   He messed up bad.   It is OK to simply acknowledge that and mourn him anyway.  

[Lennys Tap]

In one of the IU threads, I wrote that you can never underestimate the ability of an 18-21 year old male to bake bad decisions.   Even though he was 22, I think this falls under that umbrella.   He messed up bad.   It is OK to simply acknowledge that and mourn him anyway.  

Agreed. Almost every young man makes some really stupid decisions. Usually they result in little or no  consequence. One in a while they (and others) pay the ultimate one. Stupid, but still sad.

[Benny B]

Doesn't change the fact that its too bad that a 22 year old is dead, but it does lessen my sympathy, especially when you consider his actions also resulted in the death of his 18 year-old girlfriend.

Exactly.  A life is a life, but the level of sympathy I feel for an innocent victim is monumentally greater than what I feel for someone who materially contributed to the cause of his/her own death.

[🏀]

Exactly.  A life is a life, but the level of sympathy I feel for an innocent victim is monumentally greater than what I feel for someone who materially contributed to the cause of his/her own death.

More importantly, killing another person and potentially killing others.

[buckchuckler]

On a brighter note, Good Grief Clayton Kershaw!

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/10-remarkable-facts-about-clayton-kershaw-s-cy-young-and-mvp-season-003537165.html