2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match

[Henry Sugar]

We've heard that line many times before. Just wait until Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters get to the bigs. And don't forget when the Cubs were led to the promised land by Dusty Baker and the young nucleus of Mark Prior, Corey Patterson and Hee-Soep Choi. Oh, let's not leave future HOFers Kevin Orie, Gary Scott, Felix Pie, Donnie Veal and Sean Gallagher out of the discussion.

Having highly-regarded prospects means nothing until they produce at the big league level.

Your first paragraph is a strawman.

You're right that prospects need to produce. I'm going to continue being excited!

[TallTitan34]

Pitching is available and can be bought but long-term, big money contracts rarely work out well when it comes to pitchers.

Gil Meche 5yr/$55M - Bust whose retirement saved KC over $30M.

Barry Zito - 7yr/$126M - Bust

Carlos Silva - 4yr/$48M - Such a bust that he was traded for Milton Bradley

AJ Burnett - 5yr/$83M - Bust who was eventually traded just to get him off the roster

CC Sabathia - 8yr/$182M - Very good for 4 years, rough season, injury-plagued season. Still owed nearly $75M.

John Lackey - 6yr/$83M (Theo) - Bad season, awful season, missed season, good season, above average season. Not worth $83M.

Cliff Lee - 5yr/$120M - 3 outstanding seasons then an injury-plagued season. 36yo and still owed at least $38M, possibly up to $52M.

CJ Wilson - 5yr/$78M - Above average season, good season, bad season. Still owed $38M

Anibal Sanchez - 5yr/$88M - Great season, above average injury-plagued season

Zack Greinke - 6yr/$159M - 2 outstanding seasons

Edwin Jackson - 4yr/$52M (Theo) - 2 awful seasons, still owed $22M

Don't forget Theo and Jed have also signed several free agent pitchers who have worked out so well they were able to be flipped for even more prospects.  Edwin Jackson was a bust but the majority of free agent pitching signings have worked out very well for Theo, Jed, and the Cubs.

Addison Russell isn't a Cub if Theo doesn't sign Jason Hammel.

[MerrittsMustache]

Your first paragraph is a strawman.

You're right that prospects need to produce. I'm going to continue being excited!

All I was saying is that I've fallen for the "we have great prospects" line before. Toronto, San Diego, Arizona and Cleveland have all had top 1-5 farm systems recently. How's that working for them? Until prospects actually produce on a Major League field, I'm not going to get overly excited.

Don't forget Theo and Jed have also signed several free agent pitchers who have worked out so well they were able to be flipped for even more prospects.  Edwin Jackson was a bust but the majority of free agent pitching signings have worked out very well for Theo, Jed, and the Cubs.

Addison Russell isn't a Cub if Theo doesn't sign Jason Hammel.

Actually, Billy McKinney isn't a Cub if Theo doesn't sign Hammel. Apples to oranges anyway. Signing pitchers to a 1-year deal in hopes of dealing them is very different than signing them to long-term deals. Hammel and Feldman worked out great and Maholm also worked out pretty well, but Theo has also whiffed on some low-risk pitchers too: Scott Baker, Andy Sonnanstine, Manny Corpas, Chris Volstad, Kyuji Fujikawa, Justin Germano, Michael Bowden, Alex Hinshaw, Jose Veras.

That's not necessarily a knock against the FO. They wanted the team to be bad so they had nothing to lose by bringing in a bunch of arms and hoping that at least a few could stick and a few have (Hector Rondon comes to mind). That said, I'm not going to heap praise on them for their FA pitching signings, especially when their one major signing has been a complete bust.

[buckchuckler]

There are former top 50 prospects released and signed to new minor league deals every week.  The thing I'd be scared of if I were a Cub fan is the lack of pitching depth in that farm system. 

[GGGG]

All I was saying is that I've fallen for the "we have great prospects" line before. Toronto, San Diego, Arizona and Cleveland have all had top 1-5 farm systems recently. How's that working for them? Until prospects actually produce on a Major League field, I'm not going to get overly excited.

Yeah but I remember when the Brewers were so completely hopeless at the end of the Davey Lopes era and the Seligs still owned the club.  When they sold, and developed an actual functioning organization and prospects started to come up through the pipeline, it was fun.  A hell of a lot better than the hopelessness that existed previously.

Of course Melvin hasn't been perfect and things seem to have dried up.  But optimism is way better than pessimism. 

[jesmu84]

All I was saying is that I've fallen for the "we have great prospects" line before. Toronto, San Diego, Arizona and Cleveland have all had top 1-5 farm systems recently. How's that working for them? Until prospects actually produce on a Major League field, I'm not going to get overly excited.

I think the Cubs' prospects came up in topic b/c someone said Maddon was so successful in Tampa Bay at developing the young, high-potential draft picks the Rays acquired for several years, which is exactly what the Cubs have now. Just briefly scanning through posts, no one is saying the Cubs WILL be great because of their talent, just that there is the potential. And, again, it came up in relation to Maddon.

[MUDPT]

There are former top 50 prospects released and signed to new minor league deals every week.  The thing I'd be scared of if I were a Cub fan is the lack of pitching depth in that farm system. 

That's kind of the point.  The Cubs make hitters a priority, especially with the offensive environment in the majors now.  They aren't big on drafting high on pitchers, simply because they burn out much more than hitters.  And they also pick up guys like Arrieta and hopefully Jacob Turner, who were undervalued by their old organizations.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The Sox got Eaton for Hector Santiago.  The got Matt Davidson for Reed.

Santiago blows....what a disappointment this year.

[brandx]

I think the Cubs' prospects came up in topic b/c someone said Maddon was so successful in Tampa Bay at developing the young, high-potential draft picks the Rays acquired for several years, which is exactly what the Cubs have now. Just briefly scanning through posts, no one is saying the Cubs WILL be great because of their talent, just that there is the potential. And, again, it came up in relation to Maddon.

I don't know how good Maddon is at developing young players - but he has been very, very willing to use the young guys.

[GGGG]

I don't know how good Maddon is at developing young players - but he has been very, very willing to use the young guys.

So in other words, if he coached basketball, he would have played JJJ and Dawson more often.

Sorry.

[buckchuckler]

Santiago blows....what a disappointment this year.

That seems a little harsh.  He isn't a perfect pitcher, but a 3.75 ERA, less than a h/IP out of a 26 year old lefty.  He just needs to cut down his walks.   

[buckchuckler]

That's kind of the point.  The Cubs make hitters a priority, especially with the offensive environment in the majors now.  They aren't big on drafting high on pitchers, simply because they burn out much more than hitters.  And they also pick up guys like Arrieta and hopefully Jacob Turner, who were undervalued by their old organizations.

They weren't undervalued.  The word is bad.  They were bad for their old organizations.  Arrieta at least.  Turner was both decent and bad, but very young.  Upon further review, maybe he was undervalued. 

[Lennys Tap]

The Sox got Eaton for Hector Santiago.  The got Matt Davidson for Reed.

Correct. My mistake

[Henry Sugar]

They weren't undervalued.  The word is bad.  They were bad for their old organizations.  Arrieta at least.  Turner was both decent and bad, but very young.  Upon further review, maybe he was undervalued. 

This is a very good article by one of the founders of Baseball Prospectus. It looks at both the Cubs approach to stocking up on hitting as well as picking up undervalued pitchers (based on ERA > FIP).

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/chicago-cubs-rebuilding-theo-epstein-javier-baez-kris-bryant-jake-arrieta/

Personally, I think there's more pitching in the farm system than is reported. It's just that most of it is high A or lower, and no one that really stands out as a TOR starter yet.

[brandx]

So in other words, if he coached basketball, he would have played JJJ and Dawson more often.

Sorry.

Com' on - we don't want Ners on a baseball thread

[ChicosBailBonds]

That seems a little harsh.  He isn't a perfect pitcher, but a 3.75 ERA, less than a h/IP out of a 26 year old lefty.  He just needs to cut down his walks.   

Probably too harsh, but he was so inconsistent this year, especially in the first half.  Frustrating. 

[buckchuckler]

Probably too harsh, but he was so inconsistent this year, especially in the first half.  Frustrating. 

Now frustrating I get.  Nothing worse than a pitcher that can't hit the K zone enough.  Especially when his stuff is good enough to pitch through the strike zone. 

[buckchuckler]

This is a very good article by one of the founders of Baseball Prospectus. It looks at both the Cubs approach to stocking up on hitting as well as picking up undervalued pitchers (based on ERA > FIP).

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/chicago-cubs-rebuilding-theo-epstein-javier-baez-kris-bryant-jake-arrieta/

Personally, I think there's more pitching in the farm system than is reported. It's just that most of it is high A or lower, and no one that really stands out as a TOR starter yet.

Interesting article, but nothing that really rings terribly true I don't think. 

The Giants were very middling offensively, I think we know how they won the WS.  They Royals, were, much less than middling. 
(2013)Boston was elite last year.
(2012)The Giants the year before were middling.
(2011)The Cards were very good if not elite, but close.
(2010) The Giants were below average
(2009)The Yanks were Elite.
(2008)The Phillies were middle of the pack.
(2007)Boston was elite.

Pitching wise...
(2014) SF was high side of medium.  But an elite pitcher single-handedly won them 3 games
(2013) Boston was exact middle.  But had a dominant postseason pitcher.
(2012) Giants were very good
(2011) STL was middling -- though again, Wainwright...
(2010) SF was Elite, best in baseball
(2009) The Yanks, were just on the good side of middle.
(2008) The Phillies were very good
(2007) Boston was elite.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out for the Cubs.  But high end hitting prospects flame out the same as pitchers,  a great pitcher can win a WS game for you, or even 3. 

I'm a White Sox fan.  I wouldn't trade Chris Sale for Bryant.  Or Bryant and Soler.  Or probably even Bryant, Soler and Baez. 

[🏀]

Interesting article, but nothing that really rings terribly true I don't think.  

The Giants were very middling offensively, I think we know how they won the WS.  They Royals, were, much less than middling.  
(2013)Boston was elite last year.
(2012)The Giants the year before were middling.
(2011)The Cards were very good if not elite, but close.
(2010) The Giants were below average
(2009)The Yanks were Elite.
(2008)The Phillies were middle of the pack.
(2007)Boston was elite.

Pitching wise...
(2014) SF was high side of medium.  But an elite pitcher single-handedly won them 3 games
(2013) Boston was exact middle.  But had a dominant postseason pitcher.
(2012) Giants were very good
(2011) STL was middling -- though again, Wainwright...
(2010) SF was Elite, best in baseball
(2009) The Yanks, were just on the good side of middle.
(2008) The Phillies were very good
(2007) Boston was elite.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out for the Cubs.  But high end hitting prospects flame out the same as pitchers,  a great pitcher can win a WS game for you, or even 3.  

I'm a White Sox fan.  I wouldn't trade Chris Sale for Bryant.  Or Bryant and Soler.  Or probably even Bryant, Soler and Baez.  

That's fine as a fan, but Hahn would trade Sale for two of those three in a heartbeat. Hahn would probably trade for one and a PTBNL as well.

As much as I love watching Sale, he was an active name on waivers for a reason. It was reported they asked for Polanco from the Pirates, Giolito from the Nats and Pedersen or Seager from the Dodgers. None of the teams took the bait...

[buckchuckler]

That's fine as a fan, but Hahn would trade Sale for two of those three in a heartbeat. Hahn would probably trade for one and a PTBNL as well.

As much as I love watching Sale, he was an active name on waivers for a reason. It was reported they asked for Polanco from the Pirates, Giolito from the Nats and Pedersen or Seager from the Dodgers. None of the teams took the bait...

Really?  I didn't hear any of that reported, and I'm actually curious where you did.  Just so I can stay more on stuff, just because I love the trade rumors and such.  If that is true, those teams are stupid.  Especially Pittsburgh.  As a player signed through 2018 at a very team friendly rate he may just be the best player value in MLB right now.

And how would 1 of those guys and a PTBNL put the Sox in a better position to win?  I can't see that, so I don't see how Hahn would make a deal like that. 

[🏀]

Really?  I didn't hear any of that reported, and I'm actually curious where you did.  Just so I can stay more on stuff, just because I love the trade rumors and such.  If that is true, those teams are stupid.  Especially Pittsburgh.  As a player signed through 2018 at a very team friendly rate he may just be the best player value in MLB right now.

And how would 1 of those guys and a PTBNL put the Sox in a better position to win?  I can't see that, so I don't see how Hahn would make a deal like that. 

That's what Bruce Levine was reporting on The Score after the trade deadline was over on The Score, he seems to be pretty tuned into Hahn.

If Hahn were to make a deal like that, I think it shows that the organization is hedging their bets that the arm won't last as long.

Either way, I hope Sale stays on the southside, too much fun to watch.

[buckchuckler]

That's what Bruce Levine was reporting on The Score after the trade deadline was over on The Score, he seems to be pretty tuned into Hahn.

If Hahn were to make a deal like that, I think it shows that the organization is hedging their bets that the arm won't last as long.

Either way, I hope Sale stays on the southside, too much fun to watch.

Hmm, well I must have missed those reports, I don't listen to the Score a ton because I find most of the hosts to be intolerable, though I do like Speigel.  Though usually when he says something like that it ends up on MLBTR.  I listen to MLB radio quite a bit and never heard Sale's name mentioned at all.  And Hahn himself has said Sale is untouchable several times, though that is likely posturing.  

The great thing about Sale's contract is that it isn't crippling in the event that he misses a season with Tommy John or whatever.  Obviously you can't replace his talent, but financially it wouldn't be a killer.  

And I completely agree.  Hope Sale is on the Sox for a good long time.  

[🏀]

Levine said it after Dombrowski texted Beane 'You have one minute to acquire Sale'. Meatheads were flooding The Score in typical fashion in shock that Sale could be traded.

Levine mentioned it as 'Sox fans have nothing to worry about. Hahn is asking a big tag, like Gregory Polanco....'

It was on Hit and Run which is on Saturday mornings, really good baseball program.

[MUsoxfan]

Levine is a hack. He's a mouthpiece for the Cubs and that's about all

[MUDPT]

Interesting article, but nothing that really rings terribly true I don't think. 

The Giants were very middling offensively, I think we know how they won the WS.  They Royals, were, much less than middling. 
(2013)Boston was elite last year.
(2012)The Giants the year before were middling.
(2011)The Cards were very good if not elite, but close.
(2010) The Giants were below average
(2009)The Yanks were Elite.
(2008)The Phillies were middle of the pack.
(2007)Boston was elite.

Pitching wise...
(2014) SF was high side of medium.  But an elite pitcher single-handedly won them 3 games
(2013) Boston was exact middle.  But had a dominant postseason pitcher.
(2012) Giants were very good
(2011) STL was middling -- though again, Wainwright...
(2010) SF was Elite, best in baseball
(2009) The Yanks, were just on the good side of middle.
(2008) The Phillies were very good
(2007) Boston was elite.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out for the Cubs.  But high end hitting prospects flame out the same as pitchers,  a great pitcher can win a WS game for you, or even 3. 

I'm a White Sox fan.  I wouldn't trade Chris Sale for Bryant.  Or Bryant and Soler.  Or probably even Bryant, Soler and Baez. 

I think we can consider the playoffs a crapshoot at this point. The Cubs are building their team to compete and get into the playoffs multiple seasons in a row.