The Bubble

[wardle2wade]

Fwiw, as sad as it sounds, MU is lock city for the NIT even if they lose the next two games... which I doubt they do.  Top 4-seed as well.

[madtownwarrior]

probably coincides with Marquette becoming a less-competitive version of a basketball team....

For the last 2 months, every post of yours has been a tired old one-liner knocking MU or the season.  You've become MUscoop's less-funny version of Don Rickles. 

[Windyplayer]

Well it would be kind of nice for the seniors and/or give Buzz a chance to play with the lineups even more, eg, let JJJ play 30 minutes

They'll play in some tournament. So the extra playing time is not a concern.

[Coleman]

If we are a top 4 seed in the NIT, does that mean we get another game at the Bradley Center?

[wardle2wade]

If we are a top 4 seed in the NIT, does that mean we get another game at the Bradley Center?

I believe so... the NIT has a topsy-turvy way of doing the home games.  I believe if MU defers to play away their first game (due to NCAA's at the BC), I believe they get to host next round.  I could be wrong.

[Windyplayer]

Why doesn't Brennan do a Bubble Watch for the NIT? That's so discriminatory.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Georgetown just beat Creighton. Not handily, but not exactly a nail-biter either. I would think that win would have put them on the good side of the bubble.

Are they really NIT-bound?

I'm not so sure, I think 3 are in for Big East, but G'Town still has work to do

[MaymonsPops]

I'm not sure Marquette is "lock city" for a top 4 seed in the NIT if they lose their next 2. Gotta think they move to about 20-25 teams off the NCAA bubble with 2 more straight losses, but what do I know.

[MaymonsPops]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

Haven't paid attention to NIT bracketology in the past, but this has us as a 3 seed currently... Sounds about right given our position on the NCAA bubble.

[Coleman]

I believe so... the NIT has a topsy-turvy way of doing the home games.  I believe if MU defers to play away their first game (due to NCAA's at the BC), I believe they get to host next round.  I could be wrong.

Didn't even think about the Bradley Center hosting the NCAAs as a conflict, but isn't the NIT on a different timetable?

Actually, if it was a conflict, it would be fun to have a game back at the US Cellular Arena. They could probably just about fill it, rather than have a half-empty Bradley Center for an NIT game.

[The Equalizer]

I'm not sure Marquette is "lock city" for a top 4 seed in the NIT if they lose their next 2. Gotta think they move to about 20-25 teams off the NCAA bubble with 2 more straight losses, but what do I know.

That's my point.  Only 20 to 22 at-large teams have made it in recent years.  Remember that when the NCAA bought the NIT, regular season champs that don't win their league's auto bid or an at-large to the NCAA receive an auto NIT bid.  That's been about 10 teams each of the last two seasons.   

It could be even worse.  In 2011 there were 14 automatic bids and only 18 at-large teams. 

If we take 2 more losses making us 20 to 25 teams off the NCAA bubble, that would seem to be toward the tail end of the NIT at-large selections.  We certainly woudln't be a top 4 seed.

[wardle2wade]

That's my point.  Only 20 to 22 at-large teams have made it in recent years.  Remember that when the NCAA bought the NIT, regular season champs that don't win their league's auto bid or an at-large to the NCAA receive an auto NIT bid.  That's been about 10 teams each of the last two seasons.   

It could be even worse.  In 2011 there were 14 automatic bids and only 18 at-large teams. 

If we take 2 more losses making us 20 to 25 teams off the NCAA bubble, that would seem to be toward the tail end of the NIT at-large selections.  We certainly woudln't be a top 4 seed.

Both of your "points" are way off... even if we lose the next two (which I don't see happening), we are not going to be 20-25 teams from the bubble.  We'd probably be 12-15 teams from last ncaa spot. 

I didnt say we were a lock city for a top-4 seed if we lost the next two, just that we're in regardless right now.  And there'd still be an outside chance for top-4 seed (not that it means that much anyways).

[brandx]

Both of your "points" are way off... even if we lose the next two (which I don't see happening), we are not going to be 20-25 teams from the bubble.  We'd probably be 12-15 teams from last ncaa spot. 

I didnt say we were a lock city for a top-4 seed if we lost the next two, just that we're in regardless right now.  And there'd still be an outside chance for top-4 seed (not that it means that much anyways).

Disagree - we are already at least 12 teams from the last NCAA spot. 2 more losses will bring it down to at least 20

[Windyplayer]

I hope to avoid these dust-ups for the next, oh say, 10 years.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Disagree - we are already at least 12 teams from the last NCAA spot. 2 more losses will bring it down to at least 20

Dance Card agrees with you.  They have us 14 spots off right now.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[wardle2wade]

Dance Card agrees with you.  They have us 14 spots off right now.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Incorrect.  You're not using your dancecard site correctly as it includes conference winners on that list.

Using that site, there are only 11 at large teams are in front of us.  Three teams (GB, So Miss, ND State) above us are consensus conference winners by all bracketologists, so you net them out.   Four teams behind us (Toledo, SFA, Harvard, Belmont) also are projected to be conference winners. 

For us to be 20-25 teams at-large teams out, that means another 10-14 teams still have to jump us.  For MU to miss the NIT, using your dancecard site, we'd have to fall below #77 Manhattan.

And yes, this logic includes the assumption that there will be 9 NIT bid stealers like there were last year, leaving only 23 NIT spots.

All this also assumes those teams listed from #56 from #78 all win, thus leapfrogging MU.  About half of them will lose the rest of their games, thus making it hard to leapfrog anyone.

So again, even in catastrophe (MU loses two), we're not dropping below a Manhattan or Georgia resume. 

NIT is lock city at this point no matter what... but let's just win 3 games next week at MSG, and laugh at this stupid conversation later.

[Sunbelt15]

NIT Hype........you got to love it!!

[wardle2wade]

NIT Hype........you got to love it!!

No hype.  Just ridiculous that people think we'd fall lower than NIT. 

[The Equalizer]

Incorrect.  You're not using your dancecard site correctly as it includes conference winners on that list.

Using that site, there are only 11 at large teams are in front of us.  Three teams (GB, So Miss, ND State) above us are consensus conference winners by all bracketologists, so you net them out.


Four teams behind us (Toledo, SFA, Harvard, Belmont) also are projected to be conference winners. 

For us to be 20-25 teams at-large teams out, that means another 10-14 teams still have to jump us.  For MU to miss the NIT, using your dancecard site, we'd have to fall below #77 Manhattan.

And yes, this logic includes the assumption that there will be 9 NIT bid stealers like there were last year, leaving only 23 NIT spots.

All this also assumes those teams listed from #56 from #78 all win, thus leapfrogging MU.  About half of them will lose the rest of their games, thus making it hard to leapfrog anyone.

So again, even in catastrophe (MU loses two), we're not dropping below a Manhattan or Georgia resume. 

NIT is lock city at this point no matter what... but let's just win 3 games next week at MSG, and laugh at this stupid conversation later.

Wel, all I can say is that losing two may push our RPI rank into the mid- to high 80's, which is the point in years past at which teams start to miss getting an NIT bid.  

Last year six teams with an RPI ranking under 85 did not make the NIT.  If we're at that number or higher, that doesn't sound like "lock city.".  

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

nm

[Coleman]

It was a very different time, with unique circumstances, but Al wasn't above playing in the NIT in 1970. This year has been very disappointing but win or lose in the Big East tournment I will be watching MU with interest and hope that we can at least get a 20 win season.

[4everwarriors]

Well it would be kind of nice for the seniors and/or give Buzz a chance to play with the lineups even more, eg, let JJJ play 30 minutes

Who?

[MaymonsPops]

No hype.  Just ridiculous that people think we'd fall lower than NIT. 

LEAD PIPE LOCK OF THE CENTURY.

[ChicosBailBonds]

LEAD PIPE LOCK OF THE CENTURY.

I'm thinking the bubble talk this year was pipe dream stuff.  Absolute pipe dream.

[Eldon]

I'm thinking the bubble talk this year was pipe dream stuff.  Absolute pipe dream.

It was since at least the Butler game.  Every win just increased the amount of false hope.  Oh well.  Shoulda would coulda