The Bubble

[bilsu]

With the inevitability of some teams stealing a bid via winning the conference tournament, am I the only one who thinks that 4-0 is still not enough?

I do not think there is much risk here. Looking at most of the lower level conferences only the conference winner is going anyways. Does UWGB get a bid, if they do not win their conference? Possibly and maybe Toledo. The risk seems to lie in the major conferences were a team like Indiana somehow wons 4 games.

[forgetful]

Richmond losing to George Mason better end any talk of them being a tournament team.

[MarquetteDano]

I do not think there is much risk here. Looking at most of the lower level conferences only the conference winner is going anyways. Does UWGB get a bid, if they do not win their conference? Possibly and maybe Toledo. The risk seems to lie in the major conferences were a team like Indiana somehow wons 4 games.

There is a bit of a risk.  The following leagues are getting at-large bids but could have a surprise winner in their tourney:

Big East
A-10
Mountain West
West Coast

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Things are going quite well so far tonight.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Richmond at George Mason (6 PM, Regional)

Richmond loses

Texas A&M at LSU (7 PM, ESPN3)

LSU wins

West Virginia at Iowa State (7 PM, ESPN3)

West Virginia loses

North Carolina at North Carolina State (7 PM, ESPN3)

NC State loses

Alabama at Ole Miss (7 PM, ESPN3)

Ole Miss wins

Tennessee at Mississippi State (7 PM, ESPN3)

Tennessee wins

Toledo at Northern Illinois (7 PM, Regional)

Toledo loses

Indiana State at Illinois State (7:05 PM, Regional)

Indiana State loses
 
California at Arizona (8 PM, ESPN2)

Cal loses

Baylor at Texas (8 PM, ESPNU)

Baylor loses

Boise State at Fresno State (8 PM, CBSSN)

Boise loses

Nebraska at Illinois (8 PM, BTN)

Nebraska loses

Stanford at Arizona State (10 PM, ESPNU)

Hasn't started

[wardle2wade]

Ideal bubble results tonight.  Nearly every result a team like MU would want.

[ChicosBailBonds]

If we don't make it, MU vs Illinois in the NIT

http://bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

[77ncaachamps]

Big 10, ACC, and AAC throwing around their weight...

Big East would have a sad showing with only two teams.
Though they both have a good chance to advance to the S16.

Locks: Creighton, Villanova

Should be in: None

Teams on the Bubble:

St. John’s (RPI #54 SOS 35 NC SOS 131)
2-7 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (3) Sweating
Chances for an at large bid: 26%

Xavier (RPI #59 SOS 61 NC SOS 116)
3-4 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (4) Magic number is 2
Chances for an at large bid: 18%

Providence (RPI #62 SOS 65 NC SOS 185)
3-6 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining (3) Sweating
Chances for an at large bid: 14%

Georgetown (RPI #64 SOS 33 NC SOS 35)
6-7 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (3) win all three and u could get yourself in.
Chances for an at large bid: 12%

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Richmond at George Mason (6 PM, Regional)

Richmond loses

Texas A&M at LSU (7 PM, ESPN3)

LSU wins

West Virginia at Iowa State (7 PM, ESPN3)

West Virginia loses

North Carolina at North Carolina State (7 PM, ESPN3)

NC State loses

Alabama at Ole Miss (7 PM, ESPN3)

Ole Miss wins

Tennessee at Mississippi State (7 PM, ESPN3)

Tennessee wins

Toledo at Northern Illinois (7 PM, Regional)

Toledo loses

Indiana State at Illinois State (7:05 PM, Regional)

Indiana State loses
 
California at Arizona (8 PM, ESPN2)

Cal loses

Baylor at Texas (8 PM, ESPNU)

Baylor loses

Boise State at Fresno State (8 PM, CBSSN)

Boise loses

Nebraska at Illinois (8 PM, BTN)

Nebraska loses

Stanford at Arizona State (10 PM, ESPNU)

Hasn't started

To finish off the list, Arizona State beat Stanford by double digits.

Bubble teams went 4-9 tonight. Of the four wins, the only quality win was Arizona State over Stanford....and hey, that makes our loss look better.

There were some really ugly losses by Richmond, Toledo, Indiana State, Boise State, and Nebraska. The state of Illinois really came through for us tonight.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Old Miss won tonight

[forgetful]

Old Miss won tonight

Old Miss cannot be considered a bubble team.  They have an RPI in the 80's, have not beat a single team that will make it to the tournament and have multiple bad losses.

[frozena pizza]

Old Miss cannot be considered a bubble team.  They have an RPI in the 80's, have not beat a single team that will make it to the tournament and have multiple bad losses.

It's Ole Miss actually.  Best thing on their tournament resume is a ton of hot chicks and and a coke head scoring machine.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Old Miss cannot be considered a bubble team.  They have an RPI in the 80's, have not beat a single team that will make it to the tournament and have multiple bad losses.

That was part of the point.  They have a RPI of 83, MU of 76.  Both teams are on "bubble watch" lists. 

They have 1 bad loss, MU has one bad loss.  I don't see the multiple bad losses. 

They are 4-10 vs top 100, we are 5-12 vs top 100.


Makes you wonder, how firmly either one is on the bubble or are some of these bubble watch articles just picking anyone. 

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2014-02-26/bubble-watch-nebraska-richmond-nc-state-california-baylor-ncaa-tournament-march-madness

[LAZER]

Makes you wonder, how firmly either one is on the bubble or are some of these bubble watch articles just picking anyone. 

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2014-02-26/bubble-watch-nebraska-richmond-nc-state-california-baylor-ncaa-tournament-march-madness

It looks like MU has a lot more to gain in their remaining schedule than Ole Miss, but for right now I'd say both are in the back of the line.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That was part of the point.  They have a RPI of 83, MU of 76.  Both teams are on "bubble watch" lists. 

They have 1 bad loss, MU has one bad loss.  I don't see the multiple bad losses. 

They are 4-10 vs top 100, we are 5-12 vs top 100.

How are we 5-12 vs. top 100 when we only have 11 losses total? And one of those losses is to Butler? Did I miss something?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Big 10, ACC, and AAC throwing around their weight...

Big East would have a sad showing with only two teams.
Though they both have a good chance to advance to the S16.

Locks: Creighton, Villanova

Should be in: None

Teams on the Bubble:

St. John’s (RPI #54 SOS 35 NC SOS 131)
2-7 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (3) Sweating
Chances for an at large bid: 26%

Xavier (RPI #59 SOS 61 NC SOS 116)
3-4 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (4) Magic number is 2
Chances for an at large bid: 18%

Providence (RPI #62 SOS 65 NC SOS 185)
3-6 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining (3) Sweating
Chances for an at large bid: 14%

Georgetown (RPI #64 SOS 33 NC SOS 35)
6-7 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (3) win all three and u could get yourself in.
Chances for an at large bid: 12%

Who is the source of this? Becuase my looord are they wrong.  An 18% chance to make the tourney for Xavier?  26% for STJ?  14% for Providence? 

Who exactly does this guy plan to give at large bids to?

[ChicosBailBonds]

How are we 5-12 vs. top 100 when we only have 11 losses total? And one of those losses is to Butler? Did I miss something?

Sorry, those are predicted loss totals, not to date.  

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Marquette.html

[forgetful]

That was part of the point.  They have a RPI of 83, MU of 76.  Both teams are on "bubble watch" lists. 

They have 1 bad loss, MU has one bad loss.  I don't see the multiple bad losses. 

They are 4-10 vs top 100, we are 5-12 vs top 100.


Makes you wonder, how firmly either one is on the bubble or are some of these bubble watch articles just picking anyone. 

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2014-02-26/bubble-watch-nebraska-richmond-nc-state-california-baylor-ncaa-tournament-march-madness

They have losses to Alabama (RPI 124) and Miss. St. (RPI 214).  Both bad losses.

They are currently 4-9 against the top 100. 

We are currently 2-9 against the top 50. 

But the devil is in the details.  If you include Georgetown and Providence (which I think are top 50 caliber teams) we are:

4-11 against the top 50.

There is a big difference in our resumes not represented in the RPI (which I've always despised).  My point had been that you have been writing MU off based on RPI (repeatedly posting about us not being on the bubble), but you made sure to come in this thread and mention Ole Miss's win.  Ole Miss is substantially worse than their RPI (boosted by away wins at Coastal Carolina and Western Kentucky and SEC bottom feeders) represents, whereas We are better than are RPI represents (being dragged down by a few RPI bottom feeders).  This all despite the fact that Ole Miss is behind us in the RPI.

[Windyplayer]

Who is the source of this? Becuase my looord are they wrong.  An 18% chance to make the tourney for Xavier?  26% for STJ?  14% for Providence? 

Who exactly does this guy plan to give at large bids to?

+1. Those percentages are ludicrous. Xavier is in almost every bracket now yet there's a 1 in 4 chance that they make it. The only argument is that those percentages are based on final records whereas brackets are based on where they are now. And Xavier has a brutal home stretch.

[The Equalizer]

If you include Georgetown and Providence (which I think are top 50 caliber teams) we are:

Actually, neither GU nor Providence are top 50 right now--and they'll only sink lower if we wind up beating them.

[ChicosBailBonds]

They have losses to Alabama (RPI 124) and Miss. St. (RPI 214).  Both bad losses.

They are currently 4-9 against the top 100. 

We are currently 2-9 against the top 50. 

But the devil is in the details.  If you include Georgetown and Providence (which I think are top 50 caliber teams) we are:

4-11 against the top 50.

There is a big difference in our resumes not represented in the RPI (which I've always despised).  My point had been that you have been writing MU off based on RPI (repeatedly posting about us not being on the bubble), but you made sure to come in this thread and mention Ole Miss's win.  Ole Miss is substantially worse than their RPI (boosted by away wins at Coastal Carolina and Western Kentucky and SEC bottom feeders) represents, whereas We are better than are RPI represents (being dragged down by a few RPI bottom feeders).  This all despite the fact that Ole Miss is behind us in the RPI.

I haven't written MU off at all.

I've said MU needs to get probably into the 50's to have a legit shot.  Very difficult if they are in the 60's, but rest assured I have not written MU off or given up hope. I want them to make it, who doesn't?

My point was that they, Ole Miss, are making some of the same bubble articles that MU is making. 

You are absolutely correct on the bad losses for them.  Mea culpa. 

[Windyplayer]

CBS update:

"Marquette: Beating Georgetown on Thursday was nice -- a game the Golden Eagles absolutely needed to win -- but they still have a ton of work to do to get in the conversation. Their computer numbers aren't very good, and they are just 2-9 against the top 50 and 5-10 against the top 100. Marquette is now 9-6 in the Big East, but games against Villanova, Providence and St. John's close out the regular season. The Golden Eagles will have chances to play themselves into the mix."

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24459593/poppin-bubbles-arkansas-sweeps-kentucky-oregon-beats-ucla

[Windyplayer]

I hate these fields on the Big East standings listed on ESPN. A win at Nova would be absolutely monumental. Aren't we do for one of those engimatic, excellent 40-minute games? Now would be the the time.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Bubble action tonight:

Providence @ Seton Hall

Bubble action tomorrow:

UMASS @ Dayton
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee
Miami @ NC State
Texas Tech @ Baylor
Miss. State @ Missouri
Richmond @ Rhode Island
TCU @ WVU
St. Joe’s @ St. Bonaventure
LSU @ Florida
Georgia @ Arkansas
BYU @ San Diego
Oregon @ USC
Creighton @ Xavier
Northwestern @ Nebraska
Minnesota @ Michigan
Cal @ Arizona State
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M

Probably not that close to the tournament anymore if they don’t win conference tourney, but what the hell..

Northern Iowa @ Indiana State
Colorado @ Utah
W. Michigan @ Toledo
Columbia @ Harvard

[bilsu]

I am predicting a Seton Hall win.