MU to make the Tourney, Bucky Will Not

[Tugg Speedman]

Bucky's loss the Northwestern at home was devastating!!  They are now 1 and 4 in the last 5 and reeling.  The only collapse worse in the B1G is tOSU (1 and 5 in the last 6).  Great for our SoS!

The loser of tomorrow's tOSU at UW is in deep trouble and becomes a bubble team, if not out altogether (B1G is not sending 7 or 8 teams this year).  I think Bucky loses.

On the other side, if we win a St. Johns tomorrow and follow-up with a Butler win Tuesday, both doable, we are 6 and 4 back in the conversation as a bubble team.

Anyone else buying the idea the Bucky collapse continues and they do not get in (or tOSU if they lose tomorrow at UW) and we climb out of the hole and do get in.

[Hards Alumni]

Bucky's loss the Northwestern at home was devastating!!  They are now 1 and 4 in the last 5 and reeling.  The only collapse worse in the B1G is tOSU (1 and 5 in the last 6).  Great for our SoS!

The loser of tomorrow's tOSU at UW is in deep trouble and becomes a bubble team, if not out altogether (B1G is not sending 7 or 8 teams this year).  I think Bucky loses.

On the other side, if we win a St. Johns tomorrow and follow-up with a Butler win Tuesday, both doable, we are 6 and 4 back in the conversation as a bubble team.

Anyone else buying the idea the Bucky collapse continues and they do not get in (or tOSU if they lose tomorrow at UW) and we climb out of the hole and do get in.

Its really hard to say.  Bucky is having major defensive issues lately, and is a streaky shooting team... plus they are playing a very good conference this year.

MU is talented, but having problems stringing together wins.  Our schedule is favorable, and we should be able to close out some of the road games we have left.  Hard to say if MU has the quality wins to make the tournament.  A win against Villanova would have really helped our cause last week.

[We R Final Four]

No.

[wardle2wade]

Despite their recents slides, both Wisc and OSU resumes are still impressive and they are both still "in" by about 15-20 at large teams.  They will each need to lose the majority of their remaining games to really be considered bubble.  

On the other hand, we are about 10-15 teams away from the bubble still.  Good news is out next few games are favorable, and there will be a lot of attrition with the bubble teams.  If MU can beat @stj, butler, and @shu, MU will be just a few teams outside the bubble.

[WarriorFan]

I hate to say it, but Big 10 is TOUGH this year.  Lots of teams going to come out of conference season with more losses than they want... but it might even be the #1 conference this year, which means at least 7 teams in, and Bucky likely to be one of them if they get things right. 

still.... better dead than red.  Focus on the Warriors!

[Windyplayer]

I feel like this is something you scream when you're alone in the Grand Canyon and having a moment.

I like the affirmation!

[Badgerhater]

Need a .500 conference record in the Big 10 regardless of non-conference.   Bucky should get that.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Wisconsin is in unless they finish worse than 8-10 in the Big Ten.  Wisconsin has wins over Florida, SLU, Marquette, WVU, SJU, Green Bay, Virginia, Iowa and Illinois.  Yes, they're currently 4-4 in the Big10, but they're in fine shape.

Ohio State is probably in as well, but they're in a slightly less admirable position.  Their best wins are against MU, Notre Dame, Maryland and Illinois - all teams that have struggled this year.  They're currently sitting at 3-5 in B10, and probably need to finish 9-9 to feel comfortable.

[LAZER]

Despite their recents slides, both Wisc and OSU resumes are still impressive and they are both still "in" by about 15-20 at large teams.  They will each need to lose the majority of their remaining games to really be considered bubble.  

On the other hand, we are about 10-15 teams away from the bubble still.  Good news is out next few games are favorable, and there will be a lot of attrition with the bubble teams.  If MU can beat @stj, butler, and @shu, MU will be just a few teams outside the bubble.

OSU's resume is not very impressive, with really no impressive wins out of conference, they sit at 3-5 in conference right now (next two games @Wisconsin and @Iowa).  They very well could slide to 3-7 in conference and if they go 6-2 over their last 8 they'll move to 9-9 in conference.

That'll probably be good enough to get them in, but I think OSU is a lot closer to the bubble than most think.

[ATWizJr]

Bucky's loss the Northwestern at home was devastating!!  They are now 1 and 4 in the last 5 and reeling.  The only collapse worse in the B1G is tOSU (1 and 5 in the last 6).  Great for our SoS!

The loser of tomorrow's tOSU at UW is in deep trouble and becomes a bubble team, if not out altogether (B1G is not sending 7 or 8 teams this year).  I think Bucky loses.

On the other side, if we win a St. Johns tomorrow and follow-up with a Butler win Tuesday, both doable, we are 6 and 4 back in the conversation as a bubble team.

Anyone else buying the idea the Bucky collapse continues and they do not get in (or tOSU if they lose tomorrow at UW) and we climb out of the hole and do get in.

Dreamin' is free.

[Golden Avalanche]

Bucky's loss the Northwestern at home was devastating!!  They are now 1 and 4 in the last 5 and reeling.  The only collapse worse in the B1G is tOSU (1 and 5 in the last 6).  Great for our SoS!

The loser of tomorrow's tOSU at UW is in deep trouble and becomes a bubble team, if not out altogether (B1G is not sending 7 or 8 teams this year).  I think Bucky loses.

On the other side, if we win a St. Johns tomorrow and follow-up with a Butler win Tuesday, both doable, we are 6 and 4 back in the conversation as a bubble team.

Anyone else buying the idea the Bucky collapse continues and they do not get in (or tOSU if they lose tomorrow at UW) and we climb out of the hole and do get in.

On the first part, even with the turgid level of play in college basketball, Marquette isn't in the conversation as a bubble team until they win seven in a row thanks to an awful 2013.

On the second part, not a chance.

[wardle2wade]

OSU's resume is not very impressive, with really no impressive wins out of conference, they sit at 3-5 in conference right now (next two games @Wisconsin and @Iowa).  They very well could slide to 3-7 in conference and if they go 6-2 over their last 8 they'll move to 9-9 in conference.

That'll probably be good enough to get them in, but I think OSU is a lot closer to the bubble than most think.

While you say the Buckeyes have no impressive wins, what is impressive for a resume is their undefeated non-conference record (15 game win streak).  Even if they split their remaining, big ten games, theyre in... B10 is very strong again this year.

[The Equalizer]

Bucky's loss the Northwestern at home was devastating!!  They are now 1 and 4 in the last 5 and reeling.  The only collapse worse in the B1G is tOSU (1 and 5 in the last 6).  Great for our SoS!

The loser of tomorrow's tOSU at UW is in deep trouble and becomes a bubble team, if not out altogether (B1G is not sending 7 or 8 teams this year).  I think Bucky loses.

On the other side, if we win a St. Johns tomorrow and follow-up with a Butler win Tuesday, both doable, we are 6 and 4 back in the conversation as a bubble team.

Anyone else buying the idea the Bucky collapse continues and they do not get in (or tOSU if they lose tomorrow at UW) and we climb out of the hole and do get in.

Wins over St. Johns and Butler are not resume builders.  Nobody is going to put us back into tournament conversation because we can beat the 8th and 10th place teams that have a current combined 4-13 record.

Yes, we have to beat them--but its table stakes.  We will also have to have a win over Creighton or Villanova (plus beat Xavier) before we are back in the conversation as a bubble team.  

[Windyplayer]

Wins over St. Johns and Butler are not resume builders.  Nobody is going to put us back into tournament conversation because we can beat the 8th and 10th place teams that have a current combined 4-13 record.

Yes, we have to beat them--but its table stakes.  We will also have to have a win over Creighton or Villanova (plus beat Xavier) before we are back in the conversation as a bubble team.  

True, but these upcoming games are critical in getting a winning streak going and building some momentum going into another tough stretch. A 3-game win streak could do wonders for this team--beat SJU and it's a real possiblity. I have a feeling we're going to absolutely hammer Butler at home next week.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Wins over St. Johns and Butler are not resume builders.  Nobody is going to put us back into tournament conversation because we can beat the 8th and 10th place teams that have a current combined 4-13 record.

Yes, we have to beat them--but its table stakes.  We will also have to have a win over Creighton or Villanova (plus beat Xavier) before we are back in the conversation as a bubble team.  

Check out the bubble.  It is weak.  Lunardi had a 9 loss BYU team as the first team out of the tournament on his latest projections.  He other teams right behind BYU are nothing special.  An 8-2 finish and MU is in the tournament. But 8-2 will not be a cakewalk.

[Coleman]

This post is silly.

UW is in. Even if they lose to OSU, they are still probably looking at a projected 7-10 seed.

MU is nowhere close to in. They are not completely out of it yet, but they have to pretty much go 1 or 2 losses from here on out, which is very very tough.

[Lennys Tap]

This post is silly.

UW is in. Even if they lose to OSU, they are still probably looking at a projected 7-10 seed.

MU is nowhere close to in. They are not completely out of it yet, but they have to pretty much go 1 or 2 losses from here on out, which is very very tough.

Things can change, but as of now, you are correct. UW is firmly in, we are outside even the softest of bubbles.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

I predict Arizona, as a #1 seed, will lose to a #16.

If this happens, I'll remind everyone about the prediction, provide a link, and wax poetic about why I felt this way.  If it doesn't happen, I'll never mention it again.

Exactly like this thread.

[ecompt]

Unless UW goes on a 10-game losing streak it is in the Dance. You get ranked in the Top 5 any time in the season and you're in.

[LAZER]

While you say the Buckeyes have no impressive wins, what is impressive for a resume is their undefeated non-conference record (15 game win streak).  Even if they split their remaining, big ten games, theyre in... B10 is very strong again this year.

It'll depend where the wins/losses come from, but an 8-10 OSU will be pretty nervous on section Sunday.  The B10 is strong this year, but it's not nearly as strong as it has been the last few years.  Illinois, Nebraska, Penn St, Purdue, and Northwestern are all pretty bad, Indiana and Minnsota are ok.

[TallTitan34]

I might quit Scoop after this post.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I cant stand Bucky but seriously doubt they dont make the tournament. Lets give some props to Chris Collins and NU though. He has had some major wins this year. Also, with a lot of talent coming in next year I cant believe im going to say this, but watch out for Northwestern basketball.

[chapman]

Makes sense.

UW's projected RPI if they go 2-8 the rest of thee way (a .35% chance of happening) is 39.  Our RPI at 9-1 (.23% chance) is 40.

In every 125,000 years or so they is bound to occur.  And it still would be almost certain UW is in.  

Now, I haven't adjusted that figure for the possible scenario of Yellowstone erupting and the ashes blowing far enough to wipe out Madison but not make it to Milwaukee while somehow they still decide to hold the NCAA tournament.

[Tugg Speedman]

Unless UW goes on a 10-game losing streak it is in the Dance. You get ranked in the Top 5 any time in the season and you're in.

BS

Bucky loses tomorrow at home to tOSU, after losing to Northwestern at home and they are out of the top 25 on Monday.  (tOSU is probably out of the top 25 win or lose thanks to the PSU loss.)

If Bucky follows up a tOSU loss with a loss on Tuesday @Ill then they are staring at #7 MSU next Saturday.

If all that happens, come back and say they could lose to MSU and 4 or 5 more in a row and make the tourney.

Get real

[Lennys Tap]

Makes sense.

UW's projected RPI if they go 2-8 the rest of thee way (a .35% chance of happening) is 39.  Our RPI at 9-1 (.23% chance) is 40.

In every 125,000 years or so they is bound to occur.  And it still would be almost certain UW is in.  

UW is not gonna go 2-8. But if they did, 6-12 in conference, 19-12 overall might be good enough for a 39 RPI but it wouldn't get them into the tourney without at least 2 BIG tourney wins.