Derrick Wilson or John Dawson?

[mu03eng]

Dawson has gotten 1 game of 30 minutes of playing time, and he showed well.  You simply cannot judge a player in a couple of 2-3 minute stints of action...

You keep making this claim, but that doesn't make it true.  There is no evidence whatsoever that says if I play 3 minutes or I play 5 minutes that I'm going to be better in the 5 minutes.  How many games of 30 minute action do you require of Dawson?  I don't see you advocating the same thing for JJJ over Jake, would that hold true there as well?

What is the threshold that signals an extended number of game minutes is required to evaluate the player?

Should we give Juan extended minutes over Jamil to make sure he can't out perform him?

What level would Dawson have to perform at and for how long does it take you to confirm or not confirm that Dawson is the man?  Furthermore how would you establish that Dawson was the one making the impact and not something like another player getting hot or a favorable match up?

[MU B2002]

It's beyond comical to me that you are so quick to judge Dawson as being abysmal in 3-8 minutes of total playing time against the likes of Butler and Villanova - when you have 30+ minutes of abysmal play by Derrick in 16 of our 20 games thus far.  Dawson has gotten 1 game of 30 minutes of playing time, and he showed well.  You simply cannot judge a player in a couple of 2-3 minute stints of action...

You also cannot judge a player on one game where they got extended minutes.

You need to judge a player based on a variety of factors: practice, game play, match ups, moon phase, etc.
You do not have access to all of this info, but I believe the Marquette coaching staff does.  I will continue to defer to them. Judging by their entire portfolio of results, they seem to know what they are doing.

[Archies Bat]

You'll note my original post said handful of idiots on this topic.

So only partial idiots?

[leever]

So only partial idiots?

topical idiots

[Archies Bat]

topical idiots

I had to use topicals in college.

[Sunbelt15]

I did not vote, but will tendd to vote against a poster who calls others idiots.  It does not support my ability to believe their opinion is sound.

Must be the nicest, self-employed person ever!

[Lennys Tap]

John plays 10+ minutes per game. Derrick plays 29+. Adjusting Dawson's to reflect Wilson's playing time, here's how they compare:

            Dawson    Wilson
PPG          5.8          5.1
APG          3.6          3.8
RPG          2.8          4.2
STLS          .3           .9
TOs           1.7          1.6
FG%        32.3         38.6
FT%         75.0         48.0
3PT%.      30.0         08.3

Dawson is a much better 3 point shooter and free throw shooter. No surprise. And he gives you .7 more points per game. For all that you get fewer assists, fewer rebounds, fewer steals, a lower overall field goal % and more turnovers. And decidedly worse on ball and team defense. I like Dawson's potential. I'd like to see him get more minutes. But the idea that he's earned 30 minutes a game or that our record would be better if he was given those minutes is in your "eye test" and your bias, not in the facts.

[tower912]

Any and all stats that contradict NERS opinion will be met with either (A) you can't make a fair assessment  because Dawson isn't getting enough consecutive minutes,  or (B) ask how can possibly think that because Derrick Wilson is soooooooo bad.    Perhaps for another 500 posts. 

[Wojo'sMojo]

John plays 10+ minutes per game. Derrick plays 29+. Adjusting Dawson's to reflect Wilson's playing time, here's how they compare:

            Dawson    Wilson
PPG          5.8          5.1
APG          3.6          3.8
RPG          2.8          4.2
STLS          .3           .9
TOs           1.7          1.6
FG%        32.3         38.6
FT%         75.0         48.0
3PT%.      30.0         08.3

Dawson is a much better 3 point shooter and free throw shooter. No surprise. And he gives you .7 more points per game. For all that you get fewer assists, fewer rebounds, fewer steals, a lower overall field goal % and more turnovers. And decidedly worse on ball and team defense. I like Dawson's potential. I'd like to see him get more minutes. But the idea that he's earned 30 minutes a game or that our record would be better if he was given those minutes is in your "eye test" and your bias, not in the facts.

Something that doesn't show up in your numbers is better offensive flow when Dawson is in. Just having Dawson in instead of Wilson opens up our offense so much more for everyone and stats don't show that.

[Sunbelt15]

Along with not being consistent at scoring or assist, Derrick's very poor free throw shooting and recent defensive slump should certify his position on the bench. Dawson should get 30+ mins per, at least til Wilson can make free throws.

[jesmu84]

Where's the choice "whoever Buzz decides to start"? I choose that one.

[brandx]

Along with not being consistent at scoring or assist, Derrick's very poor free throw shooting and recent defensive slump should certify his position on the bench. Dawson should get 30+ mins per, at least til Wilson can make free throws.

Not quite sure what this means. The slump has been all year. Derrick's defensive ability was predicated on his ability to use his strength and 'body up' on opposing guard. He can't do that anymore with the new rules.

[Eldon]

Something that doesn't show up in your numbers is better offensive flow when Dawson is in. Just having Dawson in instead of Wilson opens up our offense so much more for everyone and stats don't show that.

+1, kinda

Dwilson seems to pick up his dribble a lot, which disrupts the offensive flow.  However, I love the stats, and these facts should show up in the stats somewhere.  

[Nevada233]

I voted for Derrick because I trust Buzz to know the players' skill sets and readiness to play better than Ners, Nevada and Dreadman.

Guess that makes me an idiot.

I didn't even comment on this... How I get involved....

Marquette will not... I repeat "NOT" Win a game this year against a top 200 team if Derrick Wilson plays +30 Minutes in the game... Unless D. Wade is coming back and Bringing Vander, DJO, Acker, Novak and Wes Matthews with him....

Period.... Im not voting because its useless...
But this team is not winning anything not even this Thursday against Providence with him as Point Guard....
In the 18 Games and 2 previous seasons anyone can see that....
We have the least effective back court in all of the Big East and anyone knows Guard Play is everything....

So the losses will continue and "We are Marquette the Pre Season Ranked 17th Laughing Stock of the Big East"...

[NersEllenson]

John plays 10+ minutes per game. Derrick plays 29+. Adjusting Dawson's to reflect Wilson's playing time, here's how they compare:

            Dawson    Wilson
PPG          5.8          5.1
APG          3.6          3.8
RPG          2.8          4.2
STLS          .3           .9
TOs           1.7          1.6
FG%        32.3         38.6
FT%         75.0         48.0
3PT%.      30.0         08.3

Dawson is a much better 3 point shooter and free throw shooter. No surprise. And he gives you .7 more points per game. For all that you get fewer assists, fewer rebounds, fewer steals, a lower overall field goal % and more turnovers. And decidedly worse on ball and team defense. I like Dawson's potential. I'd like to see him get more minutes. But the idea that he's earned 30 minutes a game or that our record would be better if he was given those minutes is in your "eye test" and your bias, not in the facts.

You are making apples to oranges comparisons - you are taking stats Dawson has accumulated for the year, when much of his playing time has been so limited/spotty and in 2 minute stints - it isn't even close to comparing to a guy who gets 30+ per game, every game and can run for 10 minutes straight of game action.  What do you think Derrick's numbers would look like this year if he was consistently getting 8 minutes a game, and it was broken up into 3 different stints of playing time??

What is our record when Dawson's gotten 25+ minutes of playing time?  1-0.  That's the argument...he's only been given 1 chance, and in that 1 chance...the team won the game.  Why not try it a few more times and see what happens - it's not like we are winning at a high level with the alternative..

[GooooMarquette]

Something that doesn't show up in your numbers is better offensive flow when Dawson is in. Just having Dawson in instead of Wilson opens up our offense so much more for everyone and stats don't show that.

To see things tht don't show up in individual statistics, you might want to look to the +/- numbers.  If the entire offense runs better with Dawson in, it should have a positive impact on those numbers.  If Dawson's defense is bad, it might have a negative impact.

If I recall correctly, we were -2 against Nova with Derrick in, and -7 with Dawson in.  I understand that you can't take too much from +/- numbers from a single game because there are other variables as well (i.e., are you playing PG with Jake or Todd at SG), but I suspect many of those variables would even out over the course of the season.

Anyone know the "whole season" +/- numbers?

[Sunbelt15]

Not quite sure what this means. The slump has been all year. Derrick's defensive ability was predicated on his ability to use his strength and 'body up' on opposing guard. He can't do that anymore with the new rules.

Scoopers told me the new rules ended about three weeks into season and have no effect, but your statement is still true. My bad.

[madtownwarrior]

De Wilson numbers are unreal...   glad Lenny can extrapolate Dawson's with no comparison to how they run the team / impact on other team members... 

oh right, the other team members are supposed to make our point guard better, not the other way around

Early results show 45% of our fan base would continue to like to lose to every team in the Top 50....with a guy shooting 8% from 3 point land, 38% from the field, and 48% from the FT line.  I suspect we are the only college basketball team that starts a junior PG who has made 2, 3 point field goals in his career.  Add in the fact he's gotten the most minutes of anyone on the team?  Wow.  Just wow.  Those 5ppg, 3.8 assits and 1.6 turnovers have made all the difference in the world for this team.

People comment, we are just so close, we are having such bad luck this year - maybe if we had a PG that could just score 8ppg, in 30 minutes, we'd have won a few more...

[Eldon]

You are making apples to oranges comparisons - you are taking stats Dawson has accumulated for the year, when much of his playing time has been so limited/spotty and in 2 minute stints - it isn't even close to comparing to a guy who gets 30+ per game, every game and can run for 10 minutes straight of game action.  What do you think Derrick's numbers would look like this year if he was consistently getting 8 minutes a game, and it was broken up into 3 different stints of playing time??

What is our record when Dawson's gotten 25+ minutes of playing time?  1-0.  That's the argument...he's only been given 1 chance, and in that 1 chance...the team won the game.  Why not try it a few more times and see what happens - it's not like we are winning at a high level with the alternative..

Exactly.  IMO, it is our only shot at winning the BE tourney, which, IMO is the only way we are getting to the NCAAs.

10 games left.  Use them to prime Dawson for a possible BE tourney run.  Use them to prime him for the beginning of next season.

[brandx]

John plays 10+ minutes per game. Derrick plays 29+. Adjusting Dawson's to reflect Wilson's playing time, here's how they compare:

            Dawson    Wilson
PPG          5.8          5.1
APG          3.6          3.8
RPG          2.8          4.2
STLS          .3           .9
TOs           1.7          1.6
FG%        32.3         38.6
FT%         75.0         48.0
3PT%.      30.0         08.3

Dawson is a much better 3 point shooter and free throw shooter. No surprise. And he gives you .7 more points per game. For all that you get fewer assists, fewer rebounds, fewer steals, a lower overall field goal % and more turnovers. And decidedly worse on ball and team defense. I like Dawson's potential. I'd like to see him get more minutes. But the idea that he's earned 30 minutes a game or that our record would be better if he was given those minutes is in your "eye test" and your bias, not in the facts.

Lenny, I think a more apt comparison would be Derrick's stats last year versus John's stats this year since Derrick averaged about 13 minutes and usually it was only a couple minutes at a time.

The comparison doesn't play out quite so well for Derrick in this case even tho' he already had a year under his belt and John is a freshman.

I'm just surprised anyone thought Derrick would be OK starting. In 2 years he shot under 30% from the floor and under 50% from the line. Guys who shoot that poorly DO NOT become good shooters. Ever. And the coaches knew (or should have known that his one asset (defense) would be mitigated by the new rules. (I don't consider low turnovers an asset because he doesn't create offense.)

[NersEllenson]

You keep making this claim, but that doesn't make it true.  There is no evidence whatsoever that says if I play 3 minutes or I play 5 minutes that I'm going to be better in the 5 minutes.  How many games of 30 minute action do you require of Dawson?  I don't see you advocating the same thing for JJJ over Jake, would that hold true there as well?

What is the threshold that signals an extended number of game minutes is required to evaluate the player?

Should we give Juan extended minutes over Jamil to make sure he can't out perform him?

What level would Dawson have to perform at and for how long does it take you to confirm or not confirm that Dawson is the man?  Furthermore how would you establish that Dawson was the one making the impact and not something like another player getting hot or a favorable match up?

Usually you make cogent posts..this one is a head scratcher.  Did you not think Dawson played his best game of the year in the game he got ample opportunity to run the point - Georgetown - 30 minutes?  To me that confirms that at least for the 1 game he's been given Derrick Wilson minutes - he performs pretty well.

The issue is we have a huge data set of what Derrick brings - neither he, nor the team have improved since November.  

The Juan/Jamil argument?  Come on man.  Jamil Wilson has shown to be a productive player - his player rating is nowhere near the clear cut last on the team, as is Derricks.

I want to see Dawson get 30 minutes the rest of the way.  Guarantee you his numbers would be much better than Derrick - I'd guess he'd put up 10ppg, 5 assists, 3 rebounds the rest of the way...and suspect the team would go 9-2.  As for confirming Dawson was the one making the impact - I'd say it was quite evident he made the impact in overtime, on the road, playing against the arguably the best backcourt in the Big East, at Georgetown.  Think his 7 in OT were pretty clutch and don't think that was a case of a teammate getting hot...  

[GGGG]

De Wilson numbers are unreal...   glad Lenny can extrapolate Dawson's with no comparison to how they run the team / impact on other team members... 

Did you realize that we are scoring more a game (72 pts) than we did at the end of last year (68)?

That will likely decrease, but kind of takes away from the whole "team isn't better" concept.

[Archies Bat]

Must be the nicest, self-employed person ever!

Nahh, not necessarily nice.  Old enough to have learned to be able to wade through yellers and name callers.

[GooooMarquette]

The biggest disagreement I have with the "Dawson for starter" crowd is the assumption that "there's nothing to lose" by playing him 25+ minutes, and the assumption that we'd be better than 11-9 if he was starting.

This season is far from over - I know Buzz and the players would agree with me there - so there is still plenty to lose.  Buzz will continue to play for every win right now regardless of our record, and his belief is that Derrick is the best PG to get us wins right now.

[MUBBau]

Dawson has more votes, now what?