SMU transfers

[martyconlonontherun]

Clearly under my supposedly "ridiculous" criteria, we would most certainly consider transfers like Lockett and Wilson--because they're not even remotely comparable to Jordan Dickerson; and they're clearly better than JP Tokoto, who couldn't crack the rotation on this year's middling 8 seed UNC team.

If you think a middling 8 seed is low, what would you consider Wilson's Ducks? Did they even make the NIT that year?

[The Equalizer]

You can't just take statistics without looking at context.  Tokoto had other players ahead of him.  Wilson really didn't at Oregon.  Also, you are discounting the "improvement factor" that a player can go through. 

I mean, you wouldn't take JPT as a transfer?  He gets to redshirt for a year and then has three years remaining??

First, I don't buy the "he had players in front of him".  Jimmy Butler had players in front of him his first year yet still cracked the rotation for 20 mpg and established himself as an outstanding player, as witnessed by his 131.5 offensive rating. (by comparision, Jamil Wilson was 101.5 as a frosh).

Tokoto's offensive rating was just 88.0.  He wasn't out of the rotation because there was too much congestion--he was out of the rotation because he just wasn't good enough to get in.  If his offensive rating was 100, he would have averaged more minutes.

Second, I don't put a lot of stock in the "improvement factor".  Players for high-major teams who don't contribute as frosh rarely become strong contributors later in their careers--at least not at the high-major level.  Its a nice, romantic notion that players go from not contributing at all to stardom over a 4-year progression.  The reality is that great players earn mintues from day one.

And keep in mind, Tokoto wasn't improving as the season went on--he was getting 10 to 15 mpg up to the end of January.   It dropped preciptitously as the season wore on, indicating that the improvment wasn't coming.  In UNC's final 12 games of the season, he scored 2 points.  Not 2 points per game.  2 total points.

If you think a middling 8 seed is low, what would you consider Wilson's Ducks? Did they even make the NIT that year?

The difference is Wilson made the starting lineup. If he sat on the bench for that team, I'd say no way to him as well.

I think you aren't making the effort to evaluating players separately from coaches/teams. For example, I would have gladly accepted Cleveland Melvin after his freshman season, even though DePaul wound up 7-24 that year.   

[barfolomew]

Ow now brown cow

Or maybe they're victims of Brown-sizing.

[GGGG]

First, I don't buy the "he had players in front of him".  

Second, I don't put a lot of stock in the "improvement factor".  

Well...OK then.  If you want to ignore the fact that UNC had a bunch of wing players that were in front of him...and you discount that players improve (like Vander did), I'm not sure what to say.

I would take him in a second.

[The Equalizer]

Well...OK then.  If you want to ignore the fact that UNC had a bunch of wing players that were in front of him...and you discount that players improve (like Vander did), I'm not sure what to say.

I would take him in a second.

I'm not ignoring it at all.  In fact, I'd say you're the one ignoring it.

We aspire to be as good as (if not better) than UNC--yet "in a second" you would take the worst of their wings--the one player who wound up behind several other players on their depth chart.

What do you want to bet that UNC isn't at all interested In Juan Anderson or Jamal Ferguson?   And yet, you could make the exact same argument as you did wth Tokoto--bunch of players ahead of them, they're going to improve like Vander. 

Yet nobody on the UNC board is saying the'd take them"in a second".

[GGGG]

I'm not ignoring it at all.  In fact, I'd say you're the one ignoring it.

We aspire to be as good as (if not better) than UNC--yet "in a second" you would take the worst of their wings--the one player who wound up behind several other players on their depth chart.

What do you want to bet that UNC isn't at all interested In Juan Anderson or Jamal Ferguson?   And yet, you could make the exact same argument as you did wth Tokoto--bunch of players ahead of them, they're going to improve like Vander. 

Yet nobody on the UNC board is saying the'd take them"in a second".

Because Tokoto has an extreme upside. 

[avid1010]

I'm not ignoring it at all.  In fact, I'd say you're the one ignoring it.

We aspire to be as good as (if not better) than UNC--yet "in a second" you would take the worst of their wings--the one player who wound up behind several other players on their depth chart.

What do you want to bet that UNC isn't at all interested In Juan Anderson or Jamal Ferguson?   And yet, you could make the exact same argument as you did wth Tokoto--bunch of players ahead of them, they're going to improve like Vander.  

Yet nobody on the UNC board is saying the'd take them"in a second".

you're going in cirlces...first stating if the blue bloods don't want a transfer we shouldn't either (note they didn't want jamil w.)...then referencing high school rankings (JP's were pretty good)...then saying jamil's freshman year was better than JP's because he started half the games at Oregon...when it's obvious that anyone who struggles to start at Oregon would be riding the pine at UNC.  finally not realizing that if a kid has such a limited upside at a school like UNC he would be transferring because UNC would recruit right over his head and would likely suggest he find a school where he'll get some playing time.  you must know more than roy williams....about his own players....

[The Equalizer]

you're going in cirlces...first stating if the blue bloods don't want a transfer we shouldn't either (note they didn't want jamil w.)..

I recall nothing that says Wilson shopped himself to elite programs when he wanted to transfer and they all turned him down.  My recollection is that he wanted to be close to home, and MU was the only program in the mix. 

Would you please link to the article that states that no elite program wanted him when he was transferring.

finally not realizing that if a kid has such a limited upside at a school like UNC he would be transferring because UNC would recruit right over his head and would likely suggest he find a school where he'll get some playing time. 

Answer this for me: 
If you want to build a team that is viewed as equal to UNC in stature and talent, would you choose to build your team with:

a) UNC's castoffs
b) Players equal to or better than those that UNC recruits to replace those castoffs

[The Equalizer]

Because Tokoto has an extreme upside. 

Thats funny, becuase this whole thing started when I replied to some of our own fans who think that Tokoto will transfer a) becuase of lack of playing time and b) Roy has and will continue to recruit over him, making minutes even harder to come by in the future.

I think you can see how that argument flies in the face of your claim that he has "extreme upside?"

After all, if he has "extreme upside", then he won't have any trouble getting mintues, right?  Roy wouldn't be recuruting over him because its just a matter of time before Tokoto is demonstrating that extreme upside.

Let's face it--the comments I replied to basicallly come down to this: "He's not good enough for UNC, but we'll settle for him at MU."

I think that's a stupid reason to accept a transfer.  I don't want players not good enough to play for UNC (or Kansas or Kentucky).  I want players equal or better than what UNC has, because I want to compete with them. 

And with Buzz presumably on a recruiting upswing as he proves himself, performs in the tournament, etc., it's exaclty the wrong time to settle for such players.

If you have a problem with THAT argument, I don't think you want to argue with me--I think its with those who hope we can get a transfer from a player not good enough to play at UNC.

--

Meanwhile, your argument takes a different twist--I'm paraphrasing, but:  "Even though he wasn't very good at UNC this year. . . and even though Roy Wlliams appears to be recruiting over him  . . .if he transfers because he thinks he won't be able to compete with those new recruits at UNC, we should take a chance becuase he has 'extreme upside.'"

I would still disagree with taking him, because I just don't see that there's a strong track record of "extreme upside" actually realizing itself.

But I think you have to accept that my post wasn't because someone initialy thought Roy WIlliams was incorrectly evaluating Tokoto--so your argument really isn't against my position.

[GGGG]

Thats funny, becuase this whole thing started when I replied to some of our own fans who think that Tokoto will transfer a) becuase of lack of playing time and b) Roy has and will continue to recruit over him, making minutes even harder to come by in the future.

I think you can see how that argument flies in the face of your claim that he has "extreme upside?"

You'd have a point....if I were the one claiming a and b above....but I wasn't.

Meanwhile, your argument takes a different twist--I'm paraphrasing, but:  "Even though he wasn't very good at UNC this year. . . and even though Roy Wlliams appears to be recruiting over him  . . .if he transfers because he thinks he won't be able to compete with those new recruits at UNC, we should take a chance becuase he has 'extreme upside.'"

I never said he wasn't very good this year, and never said he was getting recruited over.

You are really doing a sh*tty job summarizing what I have said so far.

[avid1010]

I recall nothing that says Wilson shopped himself to elite programs when he wanted to transfer and they all turned him down.  My recollection is that he wanted to be close to home, and MU was the only program in the mix. 

Would you please link to the article that states that no elite program wanted him when he was transferring.

Answer this for me: 
If you want to build a team that is viewed as equal to UNC in stature and talent, would you choose to build your team with:

a) UNC's castoffs
b) Players equal to or better than those that UNC recruits to replace those castoffs

1.  would you please provide a link to the article that states no blue blood programs wanted to recruit me...because if you can't it clearly means they wanted me.  if you think UNC and Duke were after Jamil W. you must be nuts...they didn't want him out of high school, and they didn't want him after one year of college.  your believing that they did shows we can end this discussion...

2.  i don't want to build a team equal to UNC in stature and talent (just one that makes as many final fours as them), and to BUILD a team that wins like that you have to be able to win with players that aren't UNC level recruits.  by your logic MU shouldn't be signing any recruits because everyone we sign is someone UNC doesn't want.

[keefe]

They were shown the Brown Eye.

Classic. The Brown Eyed Cyclops winked at that one

[brewcity77]

Equalizer, I don't even feel the need to comment on what you've said here because you've already dug yourself in so deep that you don't need any more help with people piling on. However I would advise you to take a sniff around at the hole you've dug yourself into, because that's not dirt.

[The Equalizer]

You'd have a point....if I were the one claiming a and b above....but I wasn't.

I never said those were your points.  I clearly said those were the comments I was orignally responding to.

If you bothered to read what I wrote, my initial post was directed at those who pine after Tokoto because they think he will transfer a) becuase of lack of playing time and b) Roy has and will continue to recruit over him, making minutes even harder to come by in the future.

I don't care if those were your points or not--they were the points I was resplying to.  You then replied to me, taking a contrary position. 

Forgive me for drawing the conclusion that since you disagreed with my post that you agreed with those I was responding to.

You are really doing a sh*tty job summarizing what I have said so far.

As did you, my friend, as did you.

[GGGG]

I never said those were your points.  I clearly said those were the comments I was orignally responding to.

If you bothered to read what I wrote, my initial post was directed at those who pine after Tokoto because they think he will transfer a) becuase of lack of playing time and b) Roy has and will continue to recruit over him, making minutes even harder to come by in the future.

You quoted me.  Don't blame me for getting confused about your arguments.

BTW, if JPT wanted to transfer to Marquette, he would be here.  I can pretty much guaranty that to be the case.  It really is silly to suggest otherwise.

[The Equalizer]

1.  would you please provide a link to the article that states no blue blood programs wanted to recruit me...because if you can't it clearly means they wanted me.  if you think UNC and Duke were after Jamil W. you must be nuts...they didn't want him out of high school, and they didn't want him after one year of college.  your believing that they did shows we can end this discussion...

Out of HS his final 7 were Michigan State, Duke, Texas, Kentucky, Purdue, Marquette and Oregon.  

Meanwhile, when he transferred he never opened up recruitng. The annoucement he was leaving Oregon and coming to MU were the same day, so I think you're misinformed (or lying) when you say that other programs weren't interested.

Nobody else from his original top 7 even knew he was leaving--so how could they indicate they were't interested?

2.  i don't want to build a team equal to UNC in stature and talent (just one that makes as many final fours as them), and to BUILD a team that wins like that you have to be able to win with players that aren't UNC level recruits. 

Well Butler has made more Final Fours than UNC over the last five years. Are you saying you'd be happy if we matched Butler's stature & talent?  

I have to say, you're one of the few here that don't want the recognition on par with UNC or Duke.  I can find dozens of threads where people complain that we're not getting our due recognizion as a team at the same level of stature as UNC.

by your logic MU shouldn't be signing any recruits because everyone we sign is someone UNC doesn't want.

Wow--that's a stretch.

Why don't we leave it at this:  I don't want a transfer from UNC who would leave there because he's not going to get playing time.  

My opinion is that if he's not good enough to crack the rotation there (no less start), he's probably not going to be good enough to help us get to where we want to be.

I'd rather take a chance on two incoming HS or JUCO players like Burton or Johnson or McKay than invest two years of scholarships taking a chance on Tokoto.

[The Equalizer]

You quoted me.  Don't blame me for getting confused about your arguments.

And you quoted me. So don't blame me because your views weren't relevant to my post.

BTW, if JPT wanted to transfer to Marquette, he would be here.  I can pretty much guaranty that to be the case.  It really is silly to suggest otherwise.

I sure as hell hope we wouldn't waste two years of scholarships on him, because his performance at UNC this year tells me he's nowhere close to the performance level of Blue, Wilson, Crowder, Butler, etc.

I'd much rather our recruiting improve where we can land Stone or Looney.  Alternatively, I'd much rather take a chance on two more HS or JUCO players ala Burton, Johnson, McKay.

If Tokoto wants to come as a walk on, fine.  

[avid1010]

Out of HS his final 7 were Michigan State, Duke, Texas, Kentucky, Purdue, Marquette and Oregon.  

stop posting

[GGGG]

Out of HS his final 7 were Michigan State, Duke, Texas, Kentucky, Purdue, Marquette and Oregon.

Duke sniffed around Jamil...but never made an offer.  Same with Kentucky.  His final three were Oregon, MSU and Texas.

And you are using this as evidence but you discount that Tokoto is playing for North Carolina???

Please....*TRY* to be consistent. 

[The Equalizer]

Duke sniffed around Jamil...but never made an offer.  Same with Kentucky.  His final three were Oregon, MSU and Texas.

Fine. only MSU and Texas were interested at the end of his recruiting. We can even leave out Texas if you like. But MSU is certainly similar to UNC and Duke in terms of stature as an national elite program. 

And you are using this as evidence but you discount that Tokoto is playing for North Carolina???

Please....*TRY* to be consistent. 

No!

I'm discounting Tokoto because he was actually on UNC's roster and tried to play for them, but was unable to crack the regular rotation.   

Please....*TRY* to undersand THAT difference.

Look, you can disagree with me if you want--but can you at least accept my view without trying to twist it by suggesting I didn't consider that he might be like Wilson or Lockett.

I don't think he showed anything even close to Wilson or Lockett-like performance.  I thnk he showed Erik WIlliams or Jamail Jones-like performance. 

I reject the notion that he sat because he was behind other players.  Todd Mayo got 20 mpg his first year at MU despite being behind better players.  Jimmy Butler got 20 mpg his first year at MU despite being behind better players. 

As I keep saying, if he transfers out of fear that he'll be recruited over and not get minutes at UNC, I don't think he's worth the risk. 
 

Why don't you stop trying to attack me or single out argument and explain to me:
a) what you saw in Tokoto's perforance this year that I'm overlooking
b) why you think Tokoto's lack of action isn't the same as Jones or Anderson or Wlliams at MU.
c) why you think Tokoto is a better risk than 2 more Buzz-type HS or JUCO recruits.

A good way might be for you to list all UNC transfers that have gone on to have great careers at other elite-level teams.

[Pakuni]

Yes or no .... do you believe that after a disappointing freshman year in which he lost his starting position on a bad team and saw a reduction in playing time as the season wore on, Jamil Wilson was then and there in a position to start at Duke or Kentucky?

Yes or no .... do you believe that after leaving ASU last summer, Trent Lockett could have gone to Kansas or Louisville and started?

If you answer either with "yes," your basketball knowledge is somehow even lower than I imagine.
If you answer "no," then you're admitting that your criteria for whom MU should consider as a transfer is not the same as Buzz Williams' and, given what we saw this past season, really, really stupid.

I'm discounting Tokoto because he was actually on UNC's roster and tried to play for them, but was unable to crack the regular rotation.   

Tokoto played more minutes as a freshman at UNC than Tyler Zeller and Reyshawn Terry. Sure am glad those guys never transferred to Marquette.
(note: not projecting Tokoto here, just illustrating the inanity of the argument)

[The Equalizer]

Yes or no .... do you believe that after a disappointing freshman year in which he lost his starting position on a bad team and saw a reduction in playing time as the season wore on, Jamil Wilson was then and there in a position to start at Duke or Kentucky?

Yes.

I don't think Orgeon was a bad team--I think they had a lousy coach that lost control and knew he was on his way out the door. And he put Wilson in his doghouse for reasons other than on-court performance--your suggestion that there was merely a "reduction in playing time" belies the fact that he went from starting and 17 minutes one game to not playing at all the next. 

This wasn't a performance issue--it was a coach/player personality issue.

Yes or no .... do you believe that after leaving ASU last summer, Trent Lockett could have gone to Kansas or Louisville and started?

Yes. 

And given that Lockett actually did start for an elite eight team this year, I think it validates his talent.

If you answer "no," then you're admitting that your criteria for whom MU should consider as a transfer is not the same as Buzz Williams' and, given what we saw this past season, really, really stupid.

Oh, really?  What underperforming transfer from an elite team has Buzz taken? Which transfer has he accepted who was not already starting for another team?  Hell--lets not even make starting a condition--what transfer has he taken who was not part of the rotation at his previous team?   

Tokoto played more minutes as a freshman at UNC than Tyler Zeller and Reyshawn Terry. Sure am glad those guys never transferred to Marquette.
(note: not projecting Tokoto here, just illustrating the inanity of the argument)

As if Zeller's broken arm in the 2nd game of the season--keeping him on the bench until mid-February--had nothing at all to do with his limited minutes.

Its pathetic for you to even try to pass this off as comparable to Tokoto's situation.

[Pakuni]

This wasn't a performance issue--it was a coach/player personality issue. 

You have no idea what you're talking about.
What you're suggesting is that Ernie Kent, at a time when he was coaching for his livelihood, sat one of his better players - a guy who could be starting at Duke or Kentucky! - because of a "personality issue."
Sure. Makes complete sense.

And given that Lockett actually did start for an elite eight team this year, I think it validates his talent. 

OK, just so we're clear .... you believe Trent Lockett starts at Kansas over top-3 NBA pick Ben McLemore or Travis Relford.
Are we really having this discussion?

Oh, really?  What underperforming transfer from an elite team has Buzz taken? Which transfer has he accepted who was not already starting for another team? 

Ummm ... Jamil Wilson? Pay attention.
Oh, wait. He wasn't underperforming. His coach was just being mean.

As if Zeller's broken arm in the 2nd game of the season--keeping him on the bench until mid-February--had nothing at all to do with his limited minutes.

No, Zeller's broken arm did not affect his minutes per game at all. He didn't play because there were better players in front of him. Imagine that: a program like UNC might just have better players ahead of its incoming freshman. Just like UNC has two projected first-round picks ahead of Tokoto.

The only thing that's pathetic here is me allowing myself to be drawn into this nonsense.

[The Equalizer]

No, Zeller's broken arm did not affect his minutes per game at all. He didn't play because there were better players in front of him.

Hmm . . .
Pre injury:  2 games, 2 starts, 22.5 mpg
Post injury: 13 games, 0 starts, 5.3 mpg

But, nah, the injury didn't affect his starts or minutes per game at all.

[wadesworld]

Hmm . . .
Pre injury:  2 games, 2 starts, 22.5 mpg
Post injury: 13 games, 0 starts, 5.3 mpg

But, nah, the injury didn't affect his starts or minutes per game at all.

2 games.  I'd say that's a reasonable sample size!