Buzz concerned we did not play tOSU, is he right?

[Tugg Speedman]

In the video interviewing Buzz at the Al last night (when they returned home from St. John's). He said we were RPI 15 and SoS 14.  Had we played tOSU on the aircraft carrier, WIN OR LOSE, both our RPI and SoS would be higher today.  He then said he hoped a wet floor would not cost us a seed in the tourney.

Is his concern valid?  Thoughts?

[MUMonster03]

In the video interviewing Buzz at the Al last night (when they returned home from St. John's). He said we were RPI 15 and SoS 14.  Had we played tOSU on the aircraft carrier, WIN OR LOSE, both our RPI and SoS would be higher today.  He then said he hoped a wet floor would not cost us a seed in the tourney.

Is his concern valid?  Thoughts?

I think it is, wig that game we are probably looking at a 3 seed without having to make it deep in the tournament next week. I think, even after yesterday, we need to at least make it to the semi if not the final to make it to the 3 line, a tournament championship should get us to a 2.

[warriorfred]

Yes.  Despite the committee's protestations to the contrary, RPI is a big factor in their seeding.  If MU has a RPI of 15, it would be unreasonable to expect anything better than a 4 seed.  Most likely MU would be a 5 seed.

Argue away . . .

[ShannonSmith]

how much would have our rpi gone up if we lost? maybe from 15 to 14? I think it should be looked at as both schools scheduled strong and should be rewarded for helping the greater good of college hoops.

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

As of this morning our RPI is 10

[tower912]

MU's RPI and SOS are strong.   Win a couple of games this week and take a backseat to very few.   If MU wins the tOSU game, it would have raised their national profile a little sooner and offset the negative effects of the GB loss.    But, MU doesn't need to apologize to anyone for their record. 

[RushmoreAcademy]

I think he's right, and his frustration is that of a passionate and amazing coach.  
However, I'm not sure I agree with that view.  I just think that each win or loss changes the outlook on the next game and no matter what would have happened against OSU, the rest of the season would very well have played out differently. He talked about how crazy the season was, and sometimes very good teams like this need each of the things to break that way to get to the place they do.
 That's probably overanalyzing and they would like like to have the OSU game back though...

[brewcity77]

Most years I would be more concerned. But this year, is there any difference between being a 3 (playing a 2 to get to the Elite 8) or a 4 (playing a 1)? Honestly, some of the potential 1-seeds are more desirable opponents. I'd love to get a shot at Miami or Gonzaga.

[4everwarriors]

Miami won't be a 1 seed

[DiaperDandy]

Dick Vitale said last night during the Duke-North Carolina game that it is time to start considering the Warriors (his exact words) as a possible number one seed should they win the Big East Tournament.  I could not believe my ears when I heard that and thought it quite comical.  I honestly think a two seed is our ceiling this year.  If we win our first game in the Big East tourney, we could climb up to a three seed.

[Norm]

I'd love to get a shot at Miami or Gonzaga.

Why would you want to play Miami? Shane Larkin will destroy Cadougan and their inside game will give us fits. That is one team I hope we don't have to see in the tournament.

[Eldon]

Maybe we meet up with THE Ohio State University in the tourney.

[MU82]

And maybe if we play on the U.S.S. Slippery, Vander blows out his knee and we are a bubble team at best.

I understand Buzz's frustration, but the what-if game never plays too well.

And FWIW, the 4 RPI standings I looked at this morning have us either higher than or roughly equal to Gonzaga.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Buzz's teams always play best with the "us against the world" & "no one thinks you belong"  mindset.  Maybe some motivation for the tean right around tourney time?

[LloydMooresLegs]

Dick Vitale said last night during the Duke-North Carolina game that it is time to start considering the Warriors (his exact words) as a possible number one seed should they win the Big East Tournament.  I could not believe my ears when I heard that and thought it quite comical.  I honestly think a two seed is our ceiling this year.  If we win our first game in the Big East tourney, we could climb up to a three seed.

Confirmation that MU cannot possibly be a no. 1 seed.  

[RJax55]

Why would you want to play Miami? Shane Larkin will destroy Cadougan and their inside game will give us fits. That is one team I hope we don't have to see in the tournament.

Because Miami peaked back in late January.

[setyoursightsnorth]

Why would you want to play Miami? Shane Larkin will destroy Cadougan and their inside game will give us fits. That is one team I hope we don't have to see in the tournament.

Every single team is vulnerable. Kansas is beatable. Indiana is as well. Zags are. The only number one seed I'm petrified of is Duke.

[The Equalizer]

We would not have improved our RPI if we had lost to Ohio State.  We wouldn't have declined much, but it would not have helped us to lose.

I did a quick analysis--the numbers will be slightly off because I didn't factor the slight change in our opponents' opponents

Our current RPI is .6373, which according to realtime RPI is 11th place.

That's based on:
25% on our weigthed W/L percentage (.8017)  (calculated using .6/1.4 for home/road wins & losses)
50% on our oppontnts average W/L percentage (.5843) (averaged the W/L for our 30 opponents
25% on our opponents opponents average W/L (.6373) (extrapolated using 25/50/25 based on the other 2 numbers)


If we Beat OSU
Our W/L % improves to .8099 and our opponents opponent w/l improves to .5891
Plugging in .6373 for factor 3, our new RPI would be .6417, good enough to pull us up to to 9th.

If we lose,
Our W/L % declines to .7686 and our opponents oponents w/l improves to .5902
Pugging in .6373, our new RPI would be .6319, dropping us to 13th--possibly 14th because if Ohio State beat us, they would improved from their current 16th place.  I'm not going to run the analysis on them, but its possible that they pass us to take 13th place, dropping us to 14th. 

[NavinRJohnson]

And maybe if we play on the U.S.S. Slippery, Vander blows out his knee and we are a bubble team at best.

I understand Buzz's frustration, but the what-if game never plays too well.

And FWIW, the 4 RPI standings I looked at this morning have us either higher than or roughly equal to Gonzaga.

He's not just expressing frustration, this is their campaign to the committee.  Would be very surprised if you don't hear this out of Buzz or others again in the coming days. The committee talks about whom you schedule (particularly as it relates to bubble teams) and Buzz kows it. They out together a damn good OOC schedule, and they deserve to be rewarded with a seed for doing so.

[HoopsMalone]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/MARQET/OHIOST


When you look at both tOSU and MU's resumes, what stands out it non-conference RPI/SOS.  Missing that game is likely hurting both team's resumes. 

[Tugg Speedman]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/MARQET/OHIOST
When you look at both tOSU and MU's resumes, what stands out it non-conference RPI/SOS.  Missing that game is likely hurting both team's resumes. 

I thought this ... if Buzz thinks not playing tOSU could cost us a seed, could you not say the same for tOSU.  It cannot cost both of a seed.  One game not played cannot be that important to both teams.

In reality, it hurt one of us because one of us would have one more win against a top 15 team.  For the loser it would not have mattered.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Confirmation that MU cannot possibly be a no. 1 seed.  

LOL.  Exactly. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

Every single team is vulnerable. Kansas is beatable. Indiana is as well. Zags are. The only number one seed I'm petrified of is Duke.

Yup.  Said it last month, they are the team to beat.  Especially with Kelly back.  They are the best team in the country, hands down.  Still beatable, everyone is, but they are the team to beat.

[Pakuni]

Why would you want to play Miami? Shane Larkin will destroy Cadougan and their inside game will give us fits. That is one team I hope we don't have to see in the tournament.

In the last two weeks, Miami has lost at Wake Forest (RPI 169) and at home to Georgia Tech (RPI 132). They're eminently beatable. That doesn't MU will beat them, but there are several other teams I'd rather not see before Miami's name pops up.

[ChicosBailBonds]

As of this morning our RPI is 10

Actually a 12, right behind #1 seed Gonzaga who is an 11

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html