Buzz concerned we did not play tOSU, is he right?

[Jay Bee]

Actually a 12, right behind #1 seed Gonzaga who is an 11

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

Except for when the NCAA publishes their RPI, isn't it true that we don't know what the "real" RPI calculation is - the real one includes undisclosed adjustments. I think when people (and various websites) talk about the RPI during the season they're estimating.

[NavinRJohnson]

I thought this ... if Buzz thinks not playing tOSU could cost us a seed, could you not say the same for tOSU.  It cannot cost both of a seed.  One game not played cannot be that important to both teams.

He doesn't care about OSU, he cares about MU, and if he can plant this seed with the committee to try to make this part fo the conversation when their seed is discussed,why not? That's all he's doing. If they are on the fence between one number or another, and this helps push them up a line, vs. being pushed down a line, a little politicking will have paid off.

[Golden Avalanche]

Because Miami peaked back in late January.

Hard to say the outright ACC Champions peaked six weeks ago.

[The Equalizer]

Except for when the NCAA publishes their RPI, isn't it true that we don't know what the "real" RPI calculation is - the real one includes undisclosed adjustments. I think when people (and various websites) talk about the RPI during the season they're estimating.

The NCAA stopped making such adjustments:
http://www.collegerpi.com/rpifaq.html#Secret

He doesn't care about OSU, he cares about MU, and if he can plant this seed with the committee to try to make this part fo the conversation when their seed is discussed,why not? That's all he's doing. If they are on the fence between one number or another, and this helps push them up a line, vs. being pushed down a line, a little politicking will have paid off.

If this was the motivation, its just as likely to backfire. The same argument could be made for Ohio State. Then the committee compares the body of work:

--OSU played Duke (#1 rpi) and UL (#3 rpi) competitively in non-con for two losses
--MU was blown out by Florida (#6 rpi), lost to UWGB (#163 rpi), and got beat at the buzzer by Butler (#21 rpi) for three losses.

The assumpion will be that Ohio State probably would have won the game.

[Jay Bee]

Why is it that different sites have different RPI's? Bad data (neutral games vs. home or road?)... unknown calculations (specific treatment OWP, etc?)... both.. or others?

I guess the point is that the RPI that goes to the selection committee is probably* the one that gets looked at most by committee members... and therefore if one non-NCAA source says one thing that's slightly different than another non-NCAA source, both of them may be different than the "real" RPI. Yes?

[MU82]

He's not just expressing frustration, this is their campaign to the committee.  Would be very surprised if you don't hear this out of Buzz or others again in the coming days. The committee talks about whom you schedule (particularly as it relates to bubble teams) and Buzz kows it. They out together a damn good OOC schedule, and they deserve to be rewarded with a seed for doing so.

Fair point.

[Dawson Rental]

In the video interviewing Buzz at the Al last night (when they returned home from St. John's). He said we were RPI 15 and SoS 14.  Had we played tOSU on the aircraft carrier, WIN OR LOSE, both our RPI and SoS would be higher today.  He then said he hoped a wet floor would not cost us a seed in the tourney.

Is his concern valid?  Thoughts?

He's just being politically correct.  The real reason we go down a level in seeding is that during the delay the whole country saw that our AD is a hick who wears sweat stained caps.

[Dr. Blackheart]

The NCAA now has been publishing their own this season.  MU was a #12 on March 4, and a number of schools ahead had losses since.

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa_mens_basketball_rpi

[LloydMooresLegs]

The NCAA now has been publishing their own this season.  MU was a #12 on March 4, and a number of schools ahead had losses since.

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa_mens_basketball_rpi

Note that New Orleans is 346 out of 347.  Good move Buzz 

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

Actually a 12, right behind #1 seed Gonzaga who is an 11

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

someone should tell ESPN http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/269

Never heard of rpiforecast

[NavinRJohnson]

If this was the motivation, its just as likely to backfire. The same argument could be made for Ohio State. Then the committee compares the body of work:

--OSU played Duke (#1 rpi) and UL (#3 rpi) competitively in non-con for two losses
--MU was blown out by Florida (#6 rpi), lost to UWGB (#163 rpi), and got beat at the buzzer by Butler (#21 rpi) for three losses.

The assumpion will be that Ohio State probably would have won the game.

You are completely missing the point. It's not about the committee guessing who would have won, or comparing the two head to head. They aren't going to do that. It's about Buzz positioning MU's SOS and subsequent RPI. MU played, a challenging schedule, and scheduled an even tougher one. He wants the committee to keep that in mind when figuring our where to seed them.

[The Equalizer]

someone should tell ESPN http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/269

Never heard of rpiforecast

Why is it that different sites have different RPI's? Bad data (neutral games vs. home or road?)... unknown calculations (specific treatment OWP, etc?)... both.. or others?

I guess the point is that the RPI that goes to the selection committee is probably* the one that gets looked at most by committee members... and therefore if one non-NCAA source says one thing that's slightly different than another non-NCAA source, both of them may be different than the "real" RPI. Yes?

The small reported differences are based on when the RPI was calculated by the different services.  RealtimeRPI.com ran theirs at 9:50 this morning.  RPIForecast about five minutes ago.  ESPN runs a daily report and doesn't time-stamp it. 

But we can tell whether ESPN includes late games simply by looking at their report.  They show Gonzaga at 29-2 in the RPI report.  But following their late win over LMU, they were 30-2. So obviously, ESPN doesn't currently show the most recent nubmers.  We fell behind Gonzaga in the RPI because Gonzaga won another game.



 

[CTWarrior]

Buzz says this stuff for the same reason that Mike Brey says Marquette is the most difficult place to play and repeatedly mentioned they were playing shorthanded with Cooley sick after our game with them.  Self-serving rhetoric designed to make poll voters and tournament seeders think better of their teams.  Nothing wrong with it.  The reason that we think Buzz is right in what he says is because we love MU and we think Brey is a jerk for what he said is because we hate ND.  I think right now we are on the edge of the 3/4 line and Buzz wants any information possible out there that would push us up to the 3 line (or better, depending on the BET showing).

Personally, I like my coach saying all the boring platitudes and just worrying about the next game and not putting thought in about such things, but Buzz can compartmentalize and find time for everything with the best of them.

[The Equalizer]

Buzz says this stuff for the same reason that Mike Brey says Marquette is the most difficult place to play and repeatedly mentioned they were playing shorthanded with Cooley sick after our game with them.  Self-serving rhetoric designed to make poll voters and tournament seeders think better of their teams.  Nothing wrong with it.  The reason that we think Buzz is right in what he says is because we love MU and we think Brey is a jerk for what he said is because we hate ND.  I think right now we are on the edge of the 3/4 line and Buzz wants any information possible out there that would push us up to the 3 line (or better, depending on the BET showing).

My point is that Buzz shouldn't have called attention to a cancelled game against one of the small handful of teams that we're in direct competition for that same seed-line. 
http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

It might be different if we were on the edge of the 7/8 line and missed a game against Duke.   

But as it stands right now, there's a reasonable chance that the committee will wind up trying to decide between MU and Ohio State for that last spot on the 3-seed line. 

If that were to happen, do you really want to get the committee thinking about that particular game and what might have been?   

[Pakuni]

1. I'd be extremely surprised if committee members are paying much attention to (or are even aware of) what Buzz Williams said to some Milwaukee TV and radio stations about a game that wasn't played. The commissioner of the Big Sky and AD at Utah State probably don't get the WISN feed.

2. I'd be even more surprised if committee members would use the ol' "who would win an imaginary game on a boat in early November" as a factor to determine seeding.

[Lennys Tap]

1. I'd be extremely surprised if committee members are paying much attention to (or are even aware of) what Buzz Williams said to some Milwaukee TV and radio stations about a game that wasn't played. The commissioner of the Big Sky and AD at Utah State probably don't get the WISN feed.

2. I'd be even more surprised if committee members would use the ol' "who would win an imaginary game on a boat in early November" as a factor to determine seeding.

This

[NavinRJohnson]

1. I'd be extremely surprised if committee members are paying much attention to (or are even aware of) what Buzz Williams said to some Milwaukee TV and radio stations about a game that wasn't played. The commissioner of the Big Sky and AD at Utah State probably don't get the WISN feed.

Just don't  be surprised if you hear it again, and not necessarily directly from Buzz.

[ChicosBailBonds]

someone should tell ESPN http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/269

Never heard of rpiforecast

ESPN doesn't update theirs but once a day. 

[Lennys Tap]

someone should tell ESPN http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/269

Never heard of rpiforecast

Don't you remember Chicos giving us the valuable (and prescient) info that rpiforcast had us finishing the season with an RPI of 60 (or so) and I think a conference record of 9-9? He was positively giddy.

[The Equalizer]

Just don't  be surprised if you hear it again, and not necessarily directly from Buzz.

If Buzz is smart, he'd keep quiet about it and hope we don't hear it again.  The comparison doesn't favor MU. Better to rest on the current body of work.

[Tugg Speedman]

Just don't  be surprised if you hear it again, and not necessarily directly from Buzz.

... cue Mr. Hunt ....
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/196789301.html

You're right, Saturday night in the AL was only the FIRST mention of this.  You will hear it over and over in NYC during the tourney.  A campaign to get this idea out their has begun.

The only question ... is Thad Motta smart enough to jump on it too?

[Benny B]

The NCAA stopped making such adjustments:
http://www.collegerpi.com/rpifaq.html#Secret


If this was the motivation, its just as likely to backfire. The same argument could be made for Ohio State. Then the committee compares the body of work:

--OSU played Duke (#1 rpi) and UL (#3 rpi) competitively in non-con for two losses
--MU was blown out by Florida (#6 rpi), lost to UWGB (#163 rpi), and got beat at the buzzer by Butler (#21 rpi) for three losses.

The assumpion will be that Ohio State probably would have won the game.

Perhaps OSU would have won, but does that really matter now?  Remember that:

1) The committee doesn't care what might have happened then, it cares about what will happen 10 days from now.
2) MU was without a key player during all of those losses you mentioned.  The committee will give extra weight to the post-UWGB schedule.

There's no question that playing OSU would have potentially been beneficial to MU's RPI and SOS, particularly if MU won the game.  But the committee is not going to run a simulation to determine which team might have won for purposes of a head-to-head discussion of the two teams in committee (i.e. who should be seeded higher).

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Have Big Sheesh and some dude from OSU determine the outcome on 2K8, updated with current teams.  Send results to committee.

[brewcity77]

Remember that the committee in recent years has placed great weight on who you schedule. It's not just winning or losing those games, it's that you play them. That's what kept Seth Greenburg on the wrong side of the bubble so many times. The card Buzz is playing is the "we tried to play the toughest schedule possible" card. You schedule 3 perennial conference title contenders (UF, UW, tOSU) and play the non-con tourney with the most history and you should be rewarded for that. Buzz doesn't want Mike Broeker's work to go unnoticed.

[Pakuni]

Perhaps OSU would have won, but does that really matter now?  Remember that:

1) The committee doesn't care what might have happened then, it cares about what will happen 10 days from now.
2) MU was without a key player during all of those losses you mentioned.  The committee will give extra weight to the post-UWGB schedule.

There's no question that playing OSU would have potentially been beneficial to MU's RPI and SOS, particularly if MU won the game.  But the committee is not going to run a simulation to determine which team might have won for purposes of a head-to-head discussion of the two teams in committee (i.e. who should be seeded higher).

Exactly. The committee has many real-life factors to weigh when it comes to determining seeds. They aren't going to factor the make believe results of an imaginary game into the equation.